TM 2023 | Open: PYP S_TM | Endgame

[Ythan]

You could plausibly have actually read all that, kudos if you did put in that much effort replacing into such a doomed slot.

[mith]

Jingle says that if jjh greens then scum either have an ascetic or a jk and if it’s JK then it’s probably dats who JK’d me last night to stop the ythan hood and we just lose. If there is no jk they (koba has concurred) think the best option would be shooting ythan — jingle says he sees the argument for shooting us if you think that we fake confirmed ythan as ascetic there, but in that case if dats wasn’t outing the claimswap it makes very little sense for me to do so as the fire would’ve been on him there and not me

Fair enough.

Mechanically, there is actually no reason for me to ever shoot Ythan tonight on a jjh green. Obviously, if there is a JK we just lose. If there isn't, I am always the nightkill (because either I shoot wrong and we lose, or I shoot right and I'm confirmed town). As a result, if I shoot Ythan

successfully

, we end up in a 2:3 endgame (2/15 random EV, 2/5 * 1/3); if I choose to shoot for an Ythan buddy, I have the same 2 scum out of 5 players decision to make, and then Ythan is just autolim tomorrow, so the again 2/15 random EV. The benefit to me taking the shot is 1. I don't have to worry about the possibility that Ythan is BP (other than in trying to figure out who the buddies are) and 2. that it's completely town controlled, vs. going to D4 2:3 with no confirmed innocent where one town player chooses wrong and it's game over.

I haven't decided yet who I

am

going to shoot in that case. I don't think we are in that scenario, so I will have to do a major reevaluation with my team if we are. But the feedback is good, whether you are town thinking this through or scum trying to mislead me and get me to shoot wrong.

It's pretty obvious to me that jjh is scum with Alisae. Alisae is still pushing a mislim on me which just wins them the game (this suggests to me that they

don't

have a JK), despite it being strictly better mechanically to push for an Ythan lim if she were town and genuinely has us joined at the hip as scumbuddies (if she's town and just wrong, being wrong and mislimming me loses the game, being wrong and mislimming Ythan gives me a chance to save the game).

[Ythan]

Words from titus. She feels we can solve if town mith shoots scum datisi. Ali is claiming scum pursuing mith going for either a scum win or just to stall. Theory is jjh ali datisi. Bella is gonna be vla through deadline lol. More eventually after I get her to clarify stuff so I can paraphrase it.

[Ythan]

She says her predicted scum team capitalized on the lld mena fight. Says that jjh's picks are all town chosen solely not to piss off anyone not already set on him and that they play up the lld mena fight. Datisi must be shot to save the game because mena will not vote him. That's why ali avoids the wagon. Another chunk incoming.

[Ythan]

If mith was gonna shoot town (not datisi) ali would just bus. Their position was to bus before bella went vla through deadline. If no lim mith has to consider shooting conf scum versus datisi if mena can't be expected to vote scum datisi.

[Ythan]

She remains in favor of a jjh shot but expects we will not get an elimination without a deadline extension considering without a bus every townie has to get on board and Bella isn't here, so it's worth considering the dead end we may face if town mena is obstinate.

[mith]

kuribo wants me to mention that he has been incessantly screaming about Ali in our team chat. If he were playing instead of me this game would probably be at 200 pages by now.

Ythan, I will be shooting Ali if there is no lim. In the unlikely event of her being town, she would prefer limming jjh over no lim (from a town Ali PoV, either she's right about me being a scum vig and no lim is a loss anyway, or she's wrong and obviously limming is better than not to give us an extra town-controlled kill.)

[Ythan]

Titus believes it will be more difficult to wrangle a datisi elimination going forward because of mena. Ali seems more manageable. Thoughts on that?

[mith]

In the event of a no lim and me shooting Ali, scum can only kill one of us. Either they shoot me and you have a result on Datisi, or they shoot you and both LLD and I are confirmed (in which case one of us will be alive after the jjh lim). In the former case, we have an out if we're wrong about Datisi, and in the latter there is no wrangling to be done - confirmed town makes a decision on the lim.

[Ythan]

I'll prod her thanks

[Bellaphant]

Sorry, how would you be confirmed in that sitch?

[Bellaphant]

I'm around, I'll vote before sleeping don't worry

[Menalque]

Okay, I think I’m ready now

[Bellaphant]

Words from titus. She feels we can solve if town mith shoots scum datisi. Ali is claiming scum pursuing mith going for either a scum win or just to stall. Theory is jjh ali datisi. Bella is gonna be vla through deadline lol. More eventually after I get her to clarify stuff so I can paraphrase it.

Klick says this, basically

[Menalque]

I think shooting datisi would be very bad compared to shooting ali if jjh reds as we’re assuming

[Menalque]

Bella sorry we didn’t get to talk today I think rl just worked out horribly

[Bellaphant]

I've got a bit of time now?

[Bellaphant]

I hope your week has been better than mine!

[Bellaphant]

Oh, klick says if jjh red, shoot Ali. If jjh is town, mith town, ita probably not Ali or mena to shoot.

[Bellaphant]

Is it l-1 now?

[Menalque]

I hope your week has been better than mine!

Uh, I think almost certainly

I hope Izzy is okay

It’s e-2, I kinda wanted to hammer

[Menalque]

I’m kinda around while I make some dinner, sure

[Bellaphant]

We don't know? Waiting on results from a urine sample but I can see us being back in the hospital over the weekend. It's scary when you don't know how worries to be: two drs sent us to the hospital as they were really worried and the hospital was like *shrug*

Where's your head at re:the game?

[Menalque]

Why are you thinking dats!scum if jjh were to green?

[Bellaphant]

If mith is town, there isn't a viable team outside lld/datisi/ythan. Ali doesn't really work and our town read on you hasn't changed since day one. If mith is scum we're fucked anyway