Normal 2302: Magical Girls | GAME OVER

[Emperor flippyNips]

Can’t use the ability d1

[Firebringer]

What is novice again?

can't act night 1

[Emperor flippyNips]

That’s what I meant

[geraintm]

Ok yea I think I see your logic. StD's alignment will become indicative from what happens tonight anyways (well, either that or our vig survives), so why waste our vote on em right now when we could vote another one of our suspicions. I've got a strong x to doubt on there being two separate mafia doctors so either StD is telling the truth and is town, or is bsing and scum.

The issue is I'm not sure if I believe it, the claim is mighty convenient.

i am of the opinion that the doc claim is useless.
there will be no way of confirming them overnight, it would be very convenient if scum get their night kill and the doc didn't manage to save anyone

[geraintm]

std claim is more likely fake than not fake but we can try to play "follow the vig" for a bit

yea

i am genuienly curious what people are going to do with STD tomorrow if scum get their night kill. i think we will be in no better possition then than we are right now.

[geraintm]

I don't believe STD but at the same time I don't want to vote him out today, I think we can look elsewhere.

Basically I'm thinking is doc!STD should just protect Emperor and die tonight, giving us another vig shot from Emperor. And then we figure out what to do Day 3 if STD is still alive. In the meantime we can look more into MT, DGB, or FB

Then if I die we know std was in fact not a doctor and lied, like a liar and vote them tomorrow

why do you assume scum re going to try and kill you?
at this stage, if i were scum i would be playing the odds that you dont hit scum tonight and do them a favour

[geraintm]

Ugh I'm sorry. Been busy with survivor meet prepping and work is hectic as well so I can't do what I normally do which is play at work

I'm a novice doctor.

You knew you were a likely elimination today, and you wait till now to make this claim.

when do you think I good time to make the claim would have been?

not sure, but right before they disappear for 5 days wasnt it.

[geraintm]

STD is playing quite scummy,

he (with OD) led us off the scum wagon to kill town.

his claim is WAY to convenient.

I understand towwl's logic, but until I see a wagon that makes MORE sense. I am staying.

If you agree with Towwl's logic, why not wagon me?

i have zero interest in pushing a wagon on you today, i am happy with STD

[geraintm]

Ugh I'm sorry.

Been busy with survivor meet prepping and work is hectic as well so I can't do what I normally do which is play at work

I'm a novice doctor.

I also dont believe he has been busy...

between his last post (before the above)

i tr every other slot pretty much so i'm wrong

Who do you tr the least

firebringer i guess? im gonna try to look at some isos though probably tomorrow at work to see if i can come up with something i feel more confident in

he posted 14 times and 5 different times.

there hasnt been much action in here during that time.

more likely than not, they decided in their scum thread for him to back off here, and crafted this WAY TOO convenient claim.

my vote stays.

This is really compelling

agree
if STD flips red, then i am pushing Curiouskarmadog into my town pile

[DrippingGoofball]

If I'm scum I'm shooting the vig, I'm not taking any chances.

[OopsieDaisy]

As lose as Fire is playing, Wouldnt FireScum have hammer STDtown?

Not necessarily. I think scum would easily be able to wait for town to hammer a green std.

They also could be scum together no?

Okay counter argument time because i think this is obvious:
Emperoer says gonna shoot me tonight anyways, so what lose does scum me have from just hammering StD if i knew i was going to die

counter counter argument to my original argument:
What if im trying to secretly convince Emperor to not shoot me so im holding out for that townie to hammer std for me to look clean and avoid getting shot.

hm maybe I believe counter argument enough to believe std/fb are unpaired

wait what's wrong with a scum!fb/scum!StD world am i missing something

[towwl]

OK here's a readslist

townie af:
towwl
Emperor flippyNips
curiouskarmadog
OopsieDaisy
sheepsaysmeep (this is the only slot where I'm worried about a possible deepwolf getting by)

probably town:
geraintm

idk lol:
Firebringer

sus (kinda ordered but they're all about the same to me as I write this):
Morning Tweet
DrippingGoofball

scum:
Save The Dragons

The POE right now is really quite narrow and I think getting 2 more vig shots basically locks the game for us, so that's what I'm aiming for. I really think letting STD live today raises our chance of getting another vig shot which is ++EV, as it forces the POE further up into a very large town core. Getting 2 vig shots is basically lights out for scum even if there is a deep wolf and I only really see 2 vig shots coming when we don't yeet STD today. Like if by SoD4 {fb, mt, dgb, std} are all dead with only two town core gone and town somehow still hasn't won, we'd be in a final 4 with probably {towwl/ckd, oopsie, sheep, gera} and it should be pretty easy from there I think. Would be even easier if I was in that final 4.

Basically I'm thinking:
STD is scum, we vote STD today: -1 scum, -1 vig (NK) by SoD (probably 1 vig shot, basically neutral)
STD is scum, we don't vote STD today: Maybe scum gambits by letting Emp live another day, getting us another vig shot. (2 vig shots) Maybe we hit scum outside of STD. As far as -EV here maybe STD is investigative scum and is able to get vital info from town, but I think scum already has the most vital info they could possibly have which is that Emp is vig. Worst case STD has a roleblock tonight and is able to stop Emp tonight where he couldn't day1 or if he was dead, giving us 0 vig shots. Hm worst case is really bad. I think it's fairly unlikely though? also it might just be the case that the other scum is the RBer here anyways.
STD is town, we vote STD today: -1 doc, -1 vig (probably 1 vig shot, feels really bad even if it's low% chance of happening)
STD is town, we don't vote STD today: vig is safe, we get one more vig shot (probably 2 vig shots). STD dies at night or scum gambits by letting STD live for big brain reasons (not bad at all)

But then again I guess maybe there is a town doc that isn't STD and isn't bothering to counterclaim because of how likely it is that STD is scum anyways and that gives us probably even more than 2 vig shots. Not like that doc can't do anything if STD lives another day though. Roleblocking shenanigans of course mess up everything but I still think it's fairly unlikely scum has a roleblock since Emp was able to get a shot off last night.

It's also funny for us to drag along basically confscum for another day I think.

Anyways sorry for the rambling mechthoughts wall. I'll do some scumhunting within {dgb, mt} later today as that's where my mind is at right now.

[towwl]

As lose as Fire is playing, Wouldnt FireScum have hammer STDtown?

Not necessarily. I think scum would easily be able to wait for town to hammer a green std.

They also could be scum together no?

Okay counter argument time because i think this is obvious:
Emperoer says gonna shoot me tonight anyways, so what lose does scum me have from just hammering StD if i knew i was going to die

counter counter argument to my original argument:
What if im trying to secretly convince Emperor to not shoot me so im holding out for that townie to hammer std for me to look clean and avoid getting shot.

hm maybe I believe counter argument enough to believe std/fb are unpaired

wait what's wrong with a scum!fb/scum!StD world am i missing something

Basically STD is going to die either today or tomorrow so FB locking himself in Emp's crosshairs is just completely game losing for scum if they're both red. Maybe there's reverse reverse reverse psychology going on but that's too deep for me. I'm just assuming 1 is green between the two for now. I expect them both to be dead by D4 anyways.

[towwl]

Anyways tldr my preferences for the yeet today as I write this comment is DGB, then MT, then STD, which is weird because STD is the highest % chance to be scum right now but I still stand by that.

I really have to get work done though and even if it's tempting to just play mafia while sitting in an empty office I came here specifically so that I'd be able to blitz through my work for this week without the distractions of my home office so I'm going to try my best to go quiet for the next 8 hours and actually be productive IRL. peace

[OopsieDaisy]

As lose as Fire is playing, Wouldnt FireScum have hammer STDtown?

Not necessarily. I think scum would easily be able to wait for town to hammer a green std.

They also could be scum together no?

Okay counter argument time because i think this is obvious:
Emperoer says gonna shoot me tonight anyways, so what lose does scum me have from just hammering StD if i knew i was going to die

counter counter argument to my original argument:
What if im trying to secretly convince Emperor to not shoot me so im holding out for that townie to hammer std for me to look clean and avoid getting shot.

hm maybe I believe counter argument enough to believe std/fb are unpaired

wait what's wrong with a scum!fb/scum!StD world am i missing something

Basically STD is going to die either today or tomorrow so FB locking himself in Emp's crosshairs is just completely game losing for scum if they're both red. Maybe there's reverse reverse reverse psychology going on but that's too deep for me. I'm just assuming 1 is green between the two for now. I expect them both to be dead by D4 anyways.

Ok I get you.

Towwl's logic seems pretty sound to me, and Firebringer will prolly die at some point in the next couple days/nights so my vote doesn't need to stay. Gonna hop on Towwl's DGB wagon and see where that takes us, mainly cause I have reasons to townread everyone else that isn't called StD/Firebringer/DGB.

UNVOTE: Firebringer
VOTE: DrippingGoofball

[OopsieDaisy]

I am very much sheeping Towwl right now which I kinda feel bad about cause it means I'm not producing a whole lot of original daisy content(tm), but p much everything Towwl is saying just makes sense to me.

[curiouskarmadog]

Ugh I'm sorry. Been busy with survivor meet prepping and work is hectic as well so I can't do what I normally do which is play at work

I'm a novice doctor.

You knew you were a likely elimination today, and you wait till now to make this claim.

when do you think I good time to make the claim would have been?

not sure, but right before they disappear for 5 days wasnt it.

so generally if someone is VLA, they should just claim before they go? I am asking specifically for STD. WHEN would have been the right time to claim?..and lets throw in a "why?" too.

[curiouskarmadog]

I am very much sheeping Towwl right now which I kinda feel bad about cause it means I'm not producing a whole lot of original daisy content(tm), but p much everything Towwl is saying just makes sense to me.

great you acknowledged it, but I am assuming you take responsibility for that decision.

I dont think DGB is scum....she is just a null read for me. Vig fodder in my opinion if the Vig doesnt have a better option.

I

[OopsieDaisy]

I am very much sheeping Towwl right now which I kinda feel bad about cause it means I'm not producing a whole lot of original daisy content(tm), but p much everything Towwl is saying just makes sense to me.

great you acknowledged it, but I am assuming you take responsibility for that decision.

of course

[sheepsaysmeep]

I too entrust user towel with this game

[curiouskarmadog]

well a DGB kill gets us little to no information (other than me not thinking we should kill her). an STD flip (either way) provides a ton of information.

towwl, your thoughts on OD and sheep deferring to you?

[OopsieDaisy]

well a DGB kill gets us little to no information (other than me not thinking we should kill her). an STD flip (either way) provides a ton of information.

ok sure but his slot is gonna solve itself over the next day or two. an StD flip is more likely to hit red but also if it hits green it hurts us a lotttt so we might as well let the night play out and test the claim.

obvs a DGB kill provides little info but what other options do we have? firebringer scum would've prolly hammered a town!std, making it so they'd have to be evil together for fire to be evil. tweet is an option i'm more open to now that towwl has explained the logic on firebringer's slot not being a great wagon, maybe that's worth having a look at? my issue with voting out tweet is simply because out of the four people in my poe (StD/Fire/DGB/Tweet) she's the one I townread the most based on day 1 play, but I'll admit that read is deteriorating as the game goes on. i'm also a viable kill option right now but that's a cringe kill cause i'm flipping town, and also lots of people have vocalised a lack of interest in wagoning me so getting that wagon through in the first place would be very tricky.

DGB isn't an amazing flip but the good flips today are looking less flippable, and I wanna get someone out in my four. DGB also due to the lack of info surrounding her slot makes for a good partner of any possible scum in this game. and there's the fact that generating a wagon in the first place adds more info/context around a flip so that's always good to do

[OopsieDaisy]

i still don't understand why you're not voting me karma lmao. i mean i am town but everything you've said has showed that StD & I are your two biggest scumreads, and with StD's claim and Towwl's logic (which is my logic too but in a sheepy "I just agree with it" way) it makes sense to see what happens tonight and then judge StD based on that alongside the Day 1 stuff.

with that in mind, it just leaves me as your other big scumread. and it's not like my flip doesn't give info, most of the game has been townreading me with a couple of outliers but i've pushed on a lot of people and have been controlling a lot of the conversation.

tho tbf you can also look into tweet cause i do think she's getting overlooked by a lot of people, including myself the more i talk about her the more sus i'm getting of her lol.

[curiouskarmadog]

i still don't understand why you're not voting me karma lmao. i mean i am town but everything you've said has showed that StD & I are your two biggest scumreads, and with StD's claim and Towwl's logic (which is my logic too but in a sheepy "I just agree with it" way) it makes sense to see what happens tonight and then judge StD based on that alongside the Day 1 stuff.

with that in mind, it just leaves me as your other big scumread. and it's not like my flip doesn't give info, most of the game has been townreading me with a couple of outliers but i've pushed on a lot of people and have been controlling a lot of the conversation.

tho tbf you can also look into tweet cause i do think she's getting overlooked by a lot of people, including myself the more i talk about her the more sus i'm getting of her lol.

Why vote you? Are you trying to get me to stop voting STD? he is my biggest read atm. A vote on you does nothing. Also, I am not 100% sold you are scum AND I am sure you saw there are about 4 people in my scum pool. NOW, if STD flips scum, you are NOW again in the situation you were in with Elements. You said you felt X was scum but for "reasons", you voted someone else. I am an actions speak louder than words kind of guy. I dont know if it is your charisma or what, but I dont want you to be scum....its just...its just...well your actions they feel scummy. if you are town (win or lose) after the game we can sit back and have a good laugh....

I do not believe his claim. if he WAS a doc, a green flip would hurt us...but I am 99% sure he is lying. He claimed the ONE THING that would stop a hammer. I have recently seen STD play as a solid town. this isnt it.

I ALSO dont like the..."well I refer to someone else for my vote" bullshit that is happening right now.

take ownership of your own reads. (this goes to all)

STD is the vote today.

[curiouskarmadog]

also OD, if you are town, you and I are the biggest posters in this game....most likely we will not see end game. Im pretty sure I wont.