Mini Normal 2303 [Postgame!!!!]

[fireisredsir]

Day 1 Votecount 12

Cook (5):

ItalianoVD, Black, Hu Tao, Invisibility, Ausuka

Hu Tao (2):

fireisredsir, Cook

T3 (1):

Arsi Teroka

Something_Smart (1):

T3

iamveryhappy (1):

KatyKimFanClub

Ausuka (1):

iamveryhappy

Not Voting (2):

Something_Smart, Flower

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to reach majority.

There are (expired on 2023-06-20 13:00:00) remaining.

ok it is p wild that we went from this at 48 hours left, and cook was at e-1 for a bit right before this, to it being between italiano and ausuka, to it being between ausuka and hu tao, to the lim being on hu tao

[fireisredsir]

Question for the people who aren't voting for proposing an alternative: What *is* the alternative?
@T3
@Invis
@fireisred
@black

i wanted t3 to be like, present, and also i was procrastinating on rereading end of day

earlier i was spiritually voting italiano

im not really sure how i feel anymore tbh but i am trying the reread

[fireisredsir]

Flower's vote must be finely scrutinized Erynis did not fully feel like town despite many people seeming okay with everything here.

This one is unimpressed by T3. T3 is parked on smart but not hunting. T3 is pulling the 'Black is town card' which at this point is a great way to discredit Ausuka regardless of Black's alignment.

T3 seems happy with the Cook elim and stays away from thread to draw no further sus. Already made the retroactive Cook can be scum read for self preservation here.

Probably someone looking to hammer Cook.

hm

[fireisredsir]

Okay, so I agree that Cook can be resolved later so let’s not today.

UNVOTE: Cook

Actually

VOTE: iamveryhappy

this actually maybe is slightly towny idk

[fireisredsir]

Is it possible Cook would be our only investigative role? I personally don't think we should vote for her because it might be really hard to find scum this game.

In a setup where Town 1-shot BP Rolecop makes sense there's also very likely other mid to low power investigative roles like Tracker/Watcher/Weak Visitor/Backup/Whatever

this was pre ausuka claim, kinda interesting that this line of thought didn't stick around much once we found out that those roles do exist

[Cook]

i still think that if backup watcher and ascet rolecop are on townside that a third investigative (italiano) can't exist

[fireisredsir]

i remember live i thought italiano was like really blatant scum around page 61 but im not seeing it as much as i did the first time idk

[Cook]

and now we wrap back around to the idea that there is no watcher on townside

[Cook]

or maybe this entire setup was about giving town as many scummy PRs as possible

[Invisibility]

Question for the people who aren't voting for proposing an alternative: What *is* the alternative?
@T3
@Invis
@fireisred
@black

I just didn't wanna put Cook at e-1 while I was on v/la since I wouldn't be able to unvote if I needed to for whatever reason. Also scum quickhammering is a thing that they do or whatever

[fireisredsir]

I even have a 14p game that has a 3v11 setup, this should be 3v10
on prs here I do agree the cook pr seems a bit too op, should be balanced by making other prs weaker
how many prs do we have here is the real question
I'm guessing three
how do I know this
I make setups and am p good at them

part of the reason i called BS on italiano's claim

like look there in the future

this post is actually fairly weird

this was before italiano's real claim, so it was talking about his mason "claim"

the first part kinda makes sense, she thought masons + rolecop was too strong ig (which, okay, doesn't actually make a ton of sense imo but at least it's consistent)

but then saying "look there in the future" doesn't follow from this at all bc the claim was a joke regardless of alignment. so idk why that's added on here as a follow up to talking about his claim. it feels like she's forgetting reasons why people are suspicious to her bc this one shouldn't be applicable anymore

[Black]

sorry all busy weekend. I'll post more thoughts tomorrow

[fireisredsir]

ok this post isn't going to be very much analysis i just kinda wanted to track through how the wagons moved. at the very least this should be useful once we have more flips. so, starting from a point where there isn't a lot of coalescing yet: 3 on cook, 2 on t3, 2 on hu tao (1327)

cook quickly jumps to 6 (e-1)

- from flower, invisibility, and ausuka joining. cook claims in 1363, some people back off

- there was a small wagon back onto t3, led by ausuka with 1407 (she was on him before switching to cook), followed by cook herself. flower then rejoins the cook wagon

- italiano leaves cook and votes happy in 1440. maybe not as towny actually given the context, since there's basically 0 pressure on italiano at this point so he wouldn't feel a need to force cook through

- invisibility leaves cook and votes t3 in 1486. these last two unvotes were prob the biggest factor in dismantling the cook wagon

t3 now at 4 votes, cook at 3 votes

- asri and i vote italiano starting in 1490, asri switches to invisibility right after. italiano rejoins on cook in 1501. invisibility and cook vote italiano. i dont think the response is as bad as i did initially but i still could see it as being scum panicking a little under sudden pressure when he thought he was going to be able to coast, and re-joining cook once there's pressure on himself is pretty convenient timing

the wagons have shifted now. t3 wagon is gone. italiano at 3, cook back at 4

- then, i think 1527 by black is really interesting. it's a vote on ausuka, and an explicit statement that if she doesn't get enough support on ausuka she can switch to italiano. if italiano is scum, this probably is a pretty big signal to the scumteam that they should try to make sure the ausuka wagon has support. given that context, i think happy voting italiano right after in 1531 is pretty strongly unaligned with italiano? especially bc he was previously voting ausuka

- flower votes ausuka in 1533

- black drops her big ausuka post, italiano votes ausuka, ausuka votes italiano, i unvote

wagons have shifted again. now it's italiano 4, ausuka 3, and cook down to 1

- ausuka claims in 1552, flower switches back to cook right after. italiano claims in 1559 and goes back to cook after that. this claim is still super bizarre to me. i have trouble figuring out what the motivation could be as either alignment. i guess either way it's probably panic due to the pressure, and that sense of survivalism could come from either being scum or being a town pr?

italiano 4, cook 3, ausuka 1

- general consensus establishes to flip within the 3 claims. asri and italiano vote ausuka. asri unvotes, hu tao and cook vote ausuka. i vote italiano

wagons are now 4 italiano, 4 ausuka, and cook wagon is gone again with 1

- invisibility and katy vote ausuka back to back in 1680. big shift here, since invisibility was previously voting italiano. idk, the going back and forth between the three wagons in a way feels uninformed to me? there's some general wariness about the direction of things, some people expressing discontent. flower suggests a cook flashwagon in 1695.

ausuka 6, italiano 3

- asri and black vote italiano (the latter moving from ausuka), which makes it 5 on each. flower adds a vote back to ausuka in 1704 and asks black to hammer there. i think the movements of flower here are relatively explainable by their thought progressions, but something about the timing of them just consistently shows up as feeling really shady, especially if italiano is scum

- black is hesitant on ausuka and with flower's confidence, and starts the hu tao wagon in 1716. ausuka and flower join.

ausuka 5, italiano 3, hu tao 3

- i join hu tao wagon in 1741. italiano isn't interested in joining. katy votes cook in 1748. italiano follows, asri votes ausuka, and flower votes cook

wagons have now shifted again, ausuka 4, hu tao 3, cook 3, italiano 1

- what's interesting is how things moved from those 3 being relatively equal options, to the end of day being between mostly hu tao and ausuka. im not sure if it's a scummy shift though? it seems like cook wagon just wasn't really taking off -- cook joined hu tao, italiano moved back to ausuka, black joined ausuka, and then katy moved to hu tao. i have a hard time seeing any of these being a "save cook" vote, it feels more like people just gave up on the cook wagon

ausuka 5, hu tao 4, cook 1

from here i don't think the end of day is super relevant bc we know both wagons are town, it's more wondering about how we got here

idk if i have any grand sweeping conclusions or anything but it feels like there were potential places where there were efforts to move things away from italiano, whereas with cook it feels more like there was a resistance to getting the wagons going in the first place. aside from the first time when she got to e-1 and claimed, the wagon rarely made it above 3, but kept disappearing and then popping up again

in terms of the play of the individual slots during this time im finding it harder to judge. i think both don't make sense at times to me, and have questionable motivations. there's a lot of survivalism from both of them. there's also places where their trajectory makes sense as coming from a place of town thought. i still think there's more places from italiano that feel scummy tho, especially his trajectory on cook, which is still really strange to me

idk i need to digest and think about this a bit

[Flower]

Got a new power supply

i still think that if backup watcher and ascet rolecop are on townside that a third investigative (italiano) can't exist

Are you forgetting that you found Black Tracker? Like I'm in agreement with you that there's too many investigatives if all the claims are town (Like, the number isn't the problem. The combined power is), my problem is that it still points to you being scum even if we took your Ascetic claim at face value (We don't but w/e)

Tracker - Black
Watcher - Unknown, not confirmed to exist
Town Backup Watcher - Ausuka
X-Shot Vigilante - Unknown, confirmed to exist
1-Shot BP/Ascetic Rolecop - Cook
Odd Night Neapolitan - ItalianoVD

Like all of these are roles that scum would really want to know the exact role of and it feels like without the scum rolecop even if the setup's balanced winrate wise with scum PR's it'd be the kind of setup that's won pretty much entirely through nightplay which is pretty ugh.

-A

---

Cook if you don't think there can be 3+ investigative PR's why do you think Italiano's more likely to be scum than Black?

-A

[Black]

@Black: did you look at 2037? Did I miss a response from you?

I read it, I'm just really not sure what to believe atm. The only person I feel like I can trust is fire

[Black]

Hi, I'm here. I don't have much to say besides that more people trust in the mechanics of Cook being scum than the number of scum slots, so I'm just going to leave my vote here until there's new information.

Question for the people who aren't voting for proposing an alternative: What *is* the alternative?
@T3
@Invis
@fireisred
@black

I don't like these two posts tbh. I'm sorta leaning on the side of Cook being town and in that world scum really want to lim her today. Katy is doing this whole lurky thing while still pushing an agenda and it pings me

[Black]

ok it is p wild that we went from this at 48 hours left, and cook was at e-1 for a bit right before this, to it being between italiano and ausuka, to it being between ausuka and hu tao, to the lim being on hu tao

There was a lot of flailing around due to the approaching deadline and some changes of heart there towards the end but I think it might be worth looking into

[Black]

Well you definitely looked into it. Ireally like the VCA post by fire

[KatyKimFanClub]

Hi, I'm here. I don't have much to say besides that more people trust in the mechanics of Cook being scum than the number of scum slots, so I'm just going to leave my vote here until there's new information.

Question for the people who aren't voting for proposing an alternative: What *is* the alternative?
@T3
@Invis
@fireisred
@black

I don't like these two posts tbh. I'm sorta leaning on the side of Cook being town and in that world scum really want to lim her today. Katy is doing this whole lurky thing while still pushing an agenda and it pings me

The way I see it, Cook is the most likely scum member and likely a scum power role. Yeah, I guess I am pushing an agenda, but really I'm just sheeping the mechanics players and only tagging people to get the day going. If I can be seriously convinced Cook is town I'll change my vote.

[KatyKimFanClub]

I have some dayplay analysis of my own for this (from D1). I still think there's no way Italiano is going to claim PR after Cook and Ausuka did now that we know Ausuka flipped town. Maybe there's some next level thing I'm not seeing or that's actually the standard play and I'm out of my understanding here, but why get himself almost voted for no reason?

[Flower]

Wow after 2137 I'm really starting to hate this gamestate. d1 there were only like 4? people qualified to make a mechanical judgement on whether Cook is scum through setup spec (Ausuka/S_S/happy/Flower, idk maybe I'm missing someone. Also S_S wasn't even fucking posting during that entire time), the rest either completely checked out or were too scared of what'd happen if Cook flipped green to go for the lim relying solely on d1 dayplay (which fair enough but kind of a pain) and that's like 70% of the reason why the Cook wagon kept dissipating.

At this point I'm kinda at a fucking loss for what to do cause it's pretty blatantly obvious that Cook's scum through setup spec with the d1 1-Shot BP Rolecop claim and through dayplay with the incredibly convenient Ascetic claim after both Ausuka flips green and the Vig shoots when Ausuka said "Vig game = Cook's scum", and every time we try to point it out peoples eyes just fucking glaze over

If Cook's somehow still alive come MeLo/ELo just deadsheep Ausuka and I and lim her already, this is just painful

-A

[Black]

If Cook's somehow still alive come MeLo/ELo just deadsheep Ausuka and I and lim her already, this is just painful

Cook has been the leading wagon and at e-2 for awhile now. I'm not sure why you're talking like the lim won't go through

[fireisredsir]

while i generally agree with SS' take that italiano's claim FEELS like a scum fakeclaim bc that's the sort of thing that scum claim, of the mech-based arguments that is probably the one that feels the least like it has a stable foundation

[fireisredsir]

If Cook's somehow still alive come MeLo/ELo just deadsheep Ausuka and I and lim her already, this is just painful

Cook has been the leading wagon and at e-2 for awhile now. I'm not sure why you're talking like the lim won't go through

yea idk all this might not even matter anyway, invisibility already said he wanted to vote cook but just hadn't done it yet

there probably aren't even votes to elim italiano anyway

no idea what t3 wants

[sheepsaysmeep]

I will post a vote count even tho it looks the same still I think