Night Watch Open 95 - Game Over before 703

[bionicchop2]

I agree, Bionic.

Could you clarify what you agree with. My post addressed a few points. One of them was that I don't think Ort is scummy for his actions. If you blanket an 'I agree' over my post, you seem to be agreeing with my opinion of ortolan, which is not supported by your vote on him.

Who else are you suspicious of?

[camn]

Sorry.. I am kind of rushed and distracted today.

I agree with this part
"Camn - you can see from my vote how easy it is to make a conscious decision to not just settle on somebody at the top of the list because of a deadline. "

[ortolan]

Plus, in the TCS vs. Ort deal.. I think TCS has brought better analysis, and is thus more USEFUL to the town.. . but this could change.

This is probably subjective but I don't see it...do you think for example his fixation on OP/Haschel since the game started and with a clear lack of reasons is justified?

- TCS can be found making posts with unsound logic in many games. I misread him as scum in my one prior game with him. He may be scum, but there is no convincing case of it. Right now I see him as a convenient place for scum votes (not to say all voting him are scum).

Yes, it is possible his play is consistent with his meta, which I haven't looked at. I still think his play to date is worthy of a vote.

[camn]

...

So... Sorry for the short posts earlier. I was trying to play and pay attention in class all at once!

This is probably subjective but I don't see it...do you think for example his fixation on OP/Haschel since the game started and with a clear lack of reasons is justified?

It is TOTALLY subjective.. and I don't really get that much of a 'fixation" read on him. But I am a VERY subjective player.

Now, My other suspects!

I think that Hascel has really cleaned up his initial scumminess, and totally is giving me a town vibe. So He doesn't get grandfathered onto my list in Panda's Place

Xtoxm is still on. I know it's redundant, but I have gotten really burned lately by SCUM not posting that much. I think it is common for the town to get fixated on people who are "actually playing" and they end up ignoring lurking scum.
And Xtoxm hasn't had more than , like, 2-line post since..... ever.
Anyway, minimal posting aside... he has a vote on Crazy for UNKNOWN reasons...

Still like my vote though, it's not random. To clarify, It is not in place for the reasons I originally stated.

He TWICE has simply disagreed with wagons, without any better Ideas or any input at all, really. I totally have seen scum do that just to look good after a mislynch.
BUT... although I would love to question him at length,
a) He is hardly around to answer.. and
b) I don't have time. You, Bionic, might think 3 days is a lot.. but I have finals next week... and I am flying to LA this weekend.. and I have ALREADY been playing mafia too much!! You guys are killing my test scores!

Plus I still like Ort.

Anyway.. thats my bottom line. I like Ort more than TCS. I would LOVE to see an Xtoxm Lynch.. but I don't have a case.. I would need to question him. . . and I don't have time for that.
So .. If we HAVE to settle for a deadline lynch... thats what I like.

Regarding ME... I am obviously town
I know I am not at L-1, but I PRACTICALLY am!...so you should know if I WASN'T a hider.. then I would be just a townie, and not particularly valuable . It would be better to mislynch me than to mislynch a power role.
Of course, finding scum would be better still!
And I consider myself pretty sharp in the endgame.
PLUS after finals, I have some free time!
That, sadly, is the extent of my defense!

I wish Ice and Crazy and Xtoxm were still playing!

[ortolan]

Plus I still like Ort.

Why are you voting for me then?

Xtoxm is still on. I know it's redundant, but I have gotten really burned lately by SCUM not posting that much. I think it is common for the town to get fixated on people who are "actually playing" and they end up ignoring lurking scum.
And Xtoxm hasn't had more than , like, 2-line post since..... ever.
Anyway, minimal posting aside... he has a vote on Crazy for UNKNOWN reasons...

Still like my vote though, it's not random. To clarify, It is not in place for the reasons I originally stated.

He TWICE has simply disagreed with wagons, without any better Ideas or any input at all, really. I totally have seen scum do that just to look good after a mislynch.
BUT... although I would love to question him at length,
a) He is hardly around to answer.. and
b) I don't have time. You, Bionic, might think 3 days is a lot.. but I have finals next week... and I am flying to LA this weekend.. and I have ALREADY been playing mafia too much!! You guys are killing my test scores!

I agree about Xtoxm. I supported his hint about Crazy with a vote but he's given nothing at all to support it subsequently. Xtoxm really does post too little. I have noted other players' points that it is consistent with his meta, however.

I don't understand your role claim though, seems like there was hardly any pressure on you at all apart from a vote for Crazy. I wasn't even reciprocating your vote on me... You weren't "practically on L-1" in the slightest. But the act of your role claim is ambiguous- it could be panicky scum which is a bit of a long bow or it could be something to do with exam stress etc.

[camn]

That means I like you for a lynch.

And my claim is because I am tied for a deadline lynch. Which is effectively L-1. And I am not going to have a lot of time to deal with things this week. . . so I thought I would throw it out there. It's easy when you are vanilla!

c

[ortolan]

I might be wrong but I think TCS is leading the vote count with 3 since SC voted for him

[afatchic]

I know this is going to sound really scummy, but i also agree on xtoxm. however, i don't want our deadline lynch to be because of lurking. i think we have enough information to make a decent lynch, but i don't know who that is. lol. and i guess it looks like ill get the hammering vote as im the only one not voting i think.

[ortolan]

And my claim is because I am tied for a deadline lynch. Which is effectively L-1. And I am not going to have a lot of time to deal with things this week. . . so I thought I would throw it out there. It's easy when you are vanilla!

If you are indeed vanilla and don't get lynched, then the fact you've claimed may have moderately bad results for the town by increasing the likelihood of scum hitting power roles by knowing not to target you.

Additionally, I don't see why you needed to claim at that point. It's the sort of thing it's only really necessary to do if you have a power role and thus need to avoid being lynched, and even then the timing was amiss. In contrast, I for example, have the same number of votes on me as you and as yet have no compulsion to claim.

[afatchic]

And my claim is because I am tied for a deadline lynch. Which is effectively L-1. And I am not going to have a lot of time to deal with things this week. . . so I thought I would throw it out there. It's easy when you are vanilla!

If you are indeed vanilla and don't get lynched, then the fact you've claimed may have moderately bad results for the town by increasing the likelihood of scum hitting power roles by knowing not to target you.

Im pretty sure they hit Power role tonight (OP) unless he is hider, then it may be a no kill or double kill.

[Jex]

Vote Count

3 - The Central Scrutinizer (Haschel Cedricson, ortolan, StrangerCoug)
2 - camn (Crazy, bionicchop2)
2 - Ortolan (orangepenguin, camn)
1 - Haschel Cedricson (The Central Scrutinizer)
1 - bionicchop2 (icemanE)
1 - Crazy (Xtoxm)

Not Voting

afatchic

It takes 6 votes to lynch

Deadline is Dec 5th

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I

always

have a logical reason for doing everything. The fault lies in the interpretation of my actions.

HC

is

scum... and because I think it unlikely that there are multiple scum parked on my wagon right now, I imagine the scum are not ort and coug.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Also...

fos: bionic

.

In this hypoclaim strategy, it would ultimately behoove the hider to hide behind scum.

[Haschel Cedricson]

So yeah...

unvote, vote: Haschel Cedricson

P1: One of orangepenguin or Haschel Cedricson is scum.
P2: Orange penguin is not scum.

Ergo, HC is scum.

Check your premises.

[afatchic]

HC

is

scum...

And you know this how?

[ortolan]

And my claim is because I am tied for a deadline lynch. Which is effectively L-1. And I am not going to have a lot of time to deal with things this week. . . so I thought I would throw it out there. It's easy when you are vanilla!

If you are indeed vanilla and don't get lynched, then the fact you've claimed may have moderately bad results for the town by increasing the likelihood of scum hitting power roles by knowing not to target you.

Im pretty sure they hit Power role tonight (OP) unless he is hider, then it may be a no kill or double kill.

True, but it also applies after night 1. And also to be clear I wasn't suggesting her claiming was scummy, more that it was moderately bad based on policy.

So yeah...

unvote, vote: Haschel Cedricson

P1: One of orangepenguin or Haschel Cedricson is scum.
P2: Orange penguin is not scum.

Ergo, HC is scum.

Check your premises.

I don't know which post HC quoted this from but this argument is valid (the premises entail that conclusion) but not sound (you have offered no evidence for premise 1, premise 2 isn't proven either but can be assumed for the time being based on the claim). So I would like to see the evidence for your first premise, that "One of orangepenguin or Haschel Cedricson is scum".

[bionicchop2]

Also...

fos: bionic

.

In this hypoclaim strategy, it would ultimately behoove the hider to hide behind scum.

Take one second to think about how flawed your FoS is here.

1. If I am actually the hider, you are suspicious of a town power role for how I choose to use the role (doesn't make e less town). Whether you agree with a hider's choice or not does not make them mafia.

2. If I a not hider, my choice can neither clear a town player nor condemn a scum player. To FoS e in this case for not trying to catch mafia with an ability I don't have akes little sense.

[bionicchop2]

Question for TCS, Xtoxm and icemanE -

Would you consider moving your vote at deadline to another player who has more than just your vote? If so, who would it be?

To answer my own question, if deadline was in a few hours and Camn was not looking like she would be lynched, I would likely vote for TCS. I feel between him and Ortolan he has a slightly higher chance of being scum. I also feel like I would be able to get a better read on Ortolan than TCS.

I would also jump on icemanE with a vote if he got anywhere within lynch range (would still prefer this over anybody else).

[StrangerCoug]

I

always

have a logical reason for doing everything. The fault lies in the interpretation of my actions.

HC

is

scum... and because I think it unlikely that there are multiple scum parked on my wagon right now, I imagine the scum are not ort and coug.

What is your logical reason for concluding that one of orangepenguin and Haschel Cedricson

HAS

to be scum, and why do you believe that multiple scum are probably not on your wagon?

[bionicchop2]

Did anybody else notice that Ortolan's post #55 is actually the initial concept of the hypoclaim we have all decided to be pro-town? I only remembered his debate with Camn, but didn't quite have all the details fresh in my mind. I started a reread today since we are stalling slightly and I notice he actually suggested using the hider as an investigative role - just didn't have the specifics on execution where it would have been do-able.

[ortolan]

That was the whole idea- I thought it would be helpful to town but as I was unaware of the specifics of the hider role it was interpreted by some as rolefishing

[afatchic]

Yeah, i doubt that was too much role fishing, since he was more of asking the town how we could use the hider the best way. also, i think it was about his first week on the site when it happened, so you may even pass if of as just newbish. but either way... i don't really think he is the lynch for today.

that leaves TCS and Camn- both are tied votes i think, or does TCS have one more? either way, im going to try and get a reread in tonight prior to placing my vote. I would still like to hear from everyone on who they think is scummier and why. its a day before deadline, and our game has kinda went dead.

[camn]

I tend to agree with you about Ort, afatchic.... but I would have loved to see the defense come from him, rather than anyone else!

Oh well.

UNVOTE

. . for clarity.

...

Just did a quick read on TCS, though.. and I don't see him as scum. ...
I, of course, would rather see Xtoxm hang.. but we don't have the time.

I have a bad feeling about this day!

[afatchic]

I tend to agree with you about Ort, afatchic.... but I would have loved to see the defense come from him, rather than anyone else!

i know i shouldn't have put the defense up for him, but that was just my opinion.

Just did a quick read on TCS, though.. and I don't see him as scum. ...
I, of course, would rather see Xtoxm hang.. but we don't have the time.

I have a bad feeling about this day!

i tend to agree, i don't really like the direction of this day either. we need more imput from some of the other players. i would also much rather pressure xtoxm and see where that goes, but we don't have time before deadline.

mod can get a prod out to Xtomx

you do realize that by saying TCS isn't scum, it leaves you as the lynch...

I still think we can do pretty good, as long as we don't out another PR. if all remaining PR's can make it through the night, and hider have 2 cleared(that aren't pr's), then the town should be in real good shape i think.

just some thoughts for if i die tonight... id be willing to be a couple of the scum are the ones that have "disappeared" lately with deadline coming up, so they get no more pressure and don't change the direction of the lynch. everyone knows that with as little info we have on a few of the players, a deadline lynch won't happen on someone not active to defend themselves.

[bionicchop2]

Just a word about the uprising of Xtoxm suspicion: OP has claimed a power role. He hypoclaimed Xtoxm n1. If we find out OP is the hider, then Xtoxm is confirmed town.