Micro 1088: Carbon 14 - Game Over

[Doctor Drew]

Doctor Drew replaces ceejayvinoya!

The rumors are true! I am here!

I am channeling my inner Peregrine!!!

But let me give this game a quick skim.

!!!!!

[Doctor Drew]

For a slow game, I think there is some juicy content right out the gate.

VOTE: Random Nurse

Their contribution thus far feels like they are repeating the setup out loud rather than offering anything to work with.

Agreed.

30% random chance of the true cop getting a guilty and living to claim it if we lim N1 (2/5 x 3/4)

If we no lim:
(2/6 x 4/5) = 26.3% chance true cop can claim a guilty after N1
4/5 x 30% = 24% chance true cop can claim a guilty N2 (a bit less though as hypoclaims help scum narrow down their NK target)

Plus some marginal extra utility from inno claims

Yeah, I think it makes sense

VOTE: No Lim

Especially considering we're not getting the most juice out of today

meh idk

I think gameplaywise, doing a d1 where people try to lim other people is necessary. informationally

otherwise youre in lylo and you have some results but youre just completely guessing among the other people because the game only really starts then

Seriously, pretty much never no lim on D1, Sheep makes a great point here

Meta Data

Just a heads-up: I typically struggle on Day 1 due to not having anything tangible to work with.

I work as a strictly nocturnal night nurse, so am asleep during the day. I also work 60-72 hours each week

As Town I am free to be aggressive because I legitimately don't know who is what, and I don't care about self-preservation.

As Scum I struggle to emulate the above play and frequently try to force myself to forget my role.

As Town I work best by consistent extreme engagement to generate content: it's extremely easy to do as Town and a chore for me to do as Scum because I already have insider knowledge and I'm a terrible liar. As Town it's extremely easy for me to make free-flowing-thought posts on a dime.

I don't quickhammers and appreciate intent to hammer being made first. At this point on I don't quickhammer and instead will announce intent to claim.

I prefer NOT to play using readslists due to my severe time constraints. It's easier for me to tell you how I feel about a player, and as Town if you ask me I should be able to tell you fairly soon how I honestly feel about them. If it takes awhile then I'm possibly Scum.

On Day 1 expect me to be playing based solely on gut reads and gut vibes: I have no tangible evidence to work with.

I'm making it a habit to post this post first at the start of each game, and then start reading.

I am confused as to the point of this post

But bullet points 3 to 5 don't look like your play this game just through your own admission

It's Day 1 and it's only page 3.

Yeah but you said you use "consistent extreme engagement" and that it is easy to do as town.

I like Dunn here, you can't give bullet points on your gameplay then get upset when you get faulted for your hypocrisy.

Off the cuff initial reads are Sheep/Dunn town......Nurse/Imag scum.

For now will keep my vote where Ceejay had it(RIP), but would also be fine with Nurse.

[Doctor Drew]

VOTE: PC

I disagree with heip (though I do townread heip) - I don't think town are likely to risk self voting to put themselves at E-1 on D1 of a micro.

Also the proposed strategy of all claiming role and target D1 is a great way to ensure we never get a guilty and if scum don't happen to be targeted by the right type, then the NK could seriously mislead us D2.

i deliberately didn't say I was at -1 because I wanted to see what people would say and do, why didn't you?

and secondly it's a proposed strategy you can dislike it and it doesn't mean you have to follow it if you think not claiming a target is better then that's fine simply don't claim a target? it feels like a crazy nitpick to me coupled with the fact that you saying it makes me think it's a reason for voting me. Like hey this part of your strategy doesn't make sense but like you don't have to use that part of the strategy.

VOTE: imaginality

I'm am claiming cop and will be checking someone tonight.

What in the actual fuck.

[Doctor Drew]

VOTE: Nurse

Feel better here now after skimming page 4 and 5.

I do kinda feel Sheep is trying to control the gamestate a bit too much, not sure if it is a thing......or just them wanting to inject some action into the game(which I get).

[Doctor Drew]

I do kinda feel Sheep is trying to control the gamestate a bit too much, not sure if it is a thing......or just them wanting to inject some action into the game(which I get).

I think it only looks like this because the rate of posting is so slow so they stand out as having more posts.

Was more about page 4 and 5.

But I do lean that they just want some action, like I said.

[Doctor Drew]

I think towny to scummy is like dunn>imag>nurse>drew

I do kinda feel Sheep is trying to control the gamestate a bit too much, not sure if it is a thing......or just them wanting to inject some action into the game(which I get).

like I dont like this line idk

omgus I guess

it just feels like it sneaks some shade in in caseee I need to be limmed someday for not good justifiable reason (I struggle a little to empathize with seeing my trying to make things happen as trying to control the gamestate in a certain direction)

Lol, you are my initial top town read(maybe you could substitute Dunn) as I repped in. I don't see a scenario where I would vote you today.

Was just an observation as I was skimming the game, it popped into my head so I shared with the class.

Pred Edit: You are right, it isn't w/w

[Doctor Drew]

Also Sheep, since you brought up Fire and Fire.

I basically tried to actually scum hunt(obviously to find out buddies.....and obviously did a bad job at it lol). Then after N1 and Merlyn and I were basically fucked, it just became how far can we survive, and let's have some fun lol.

If you want a more accurate scum game, check out Boons Ahoy.

[Doctor Drew]

intent to hammer RN

There is a part of me just saying do it right now.

[Doctor Drew]

VOTE: PC

[Doctor Drew]

VOTE: PC

UNVOTE:

This is the lim for today.

But don't want the day to end super quick.

[Doctor Drew]

why is this the lim for today?

Remember when PC claimed cop?

[Doctor Drew]

Meh, didn't even notice the talk of hypo claiming in my skim.

Back to square one.

[Doctor Drew]

to be honest doctor drew my inclinations here are that you are the person I'd want to vote

Your inclinations would be wrong.

to be honest doctor drew my inclinations here are that you are the person I'd want to vote

what are your inclinations doctor drew

Would lean Imaginalty.

But why do your inclinations point you to me.....when you also keep saying that I am towny/can't be partnered?

[Doctor Drew]

Well then, I step away for a bit and then the game pops off.

I gotta read back because I don't know who to believe more.

[Doctor Drew]

I dunno, PC seems to be be putting more effort in discrediting Imag.

While Imag is more on the defensive.

This makes me lean that Imag is telling the truth here.

But, the timing of Imag's claim is also pretty suss.

[Doctor Drew]

I was gonna call the PC early self-vote to be town cuz it seems like scum would be more scared of being lolhammered than town would be

but with today's hindsight it doesnt seem like a seer would put themselves at e-1???? hmm lol

This is a good point, it was a dangerous play for a VT to do (given how early in the day it was,

imagine how little we'd have to go on today if someone did quicklim

), but even more so as a PR.

Also, when PC sorta-claimed cop imagine if cop cc-ed. That would have been an absolute clusterfuck no matter who we limmed. It makes sense as scum though.

You are going to hang on to that point like a babe sticks to his blanket. I already said why you saying it's weird it's not traditional it's not optimal, therefore it is scum is a huuuuuuuuuuge leap. you are engaging in pointless hypothetical and are pointing to me being morally lucky as scum.

also think about what image is basically saying like look back on day 1 townfolk and just engage in hypothetical and wifom until you consider what pc did as scum motivated imagine if the actual cop cc'd imagine if he was quicklimmed. like this is pointless and boring. none of that happened. I was successful in hiding n1 and I was lucky that you were a wolf and not a mafioso. You got caught that's it.

JUST THINK HOW LITTLE WE WOULD HAVE IF SOMEONE DID QUICKLIM??????? this presupposes that I'm seer you just outed yourself hello?

Can you elaborate on the last part here?

[Doctor Drew]

I was gonna call the PC early self-vote to be town cuz it seems like scum would be more scared of being lolhammered than town would be

but with today's hindsight it doesnt seem like a seer would put themselves at e-1???? hmm lol

This is a good point, it was a dangerous play for a VT to do (given how early in the day it was,

imagine how little we'd have to go on today if someone did quicklim

), but even more so as a PR.

Also, when PC sorta-claimed cop imagine if cop cc-ed. That would have been an absolute clusterfuck no matter who we limmed. It makes sense as scum though.

You are going to hang on to that point like a babe sticks to his blanket. I already said why you saying it's weird it's not traditional it's not optimal, therefore it is scum is a huuuuuuuuuuge leap. you are engaging in pointless hypothetical and are pointing to me being morally lucky as scum.

also think about what image is basically saying like look back on day 1 townfolk and just engage in hypothetical and wifom until you consider what pc did as scum motivated imagine if the actual cop cc'd imagine if he was quicklimmed. like this is pointless and boring. none of that happened. I was successful in hiding n1 and I was lucky that you were a wolf and not a mafioso. You got caught that's it.

JUST THINK HOW LITTLE WE WOULD HAVE IF SOMEONE DID QUICKLIM??????? this presupposes that I'm seer you just outed yourself hello?

Can you elaborate on the last part here?

image is saying imagine if someone quicklimmed PC what would we have to go on today.

Gotcha now.

[Doctor Drew]

Oh, I just realised how PC knew I was probably Seer before PC fakeclaimed Seer with guilty on me.

Sheep Dunn and Drew had already posted today before PC claimed and none of them hypoclaimed or even started a discussion of whether to carry on with hypoclaiming despite Cop flip. That was probably already a reasonable clue they're VT and therefore I was most likely the Seer.

I can't out-post PC, see no value in arguing with them directly, and don't want the decent points I've raised lost in a haystack.

I'll check in periodically today and answer questions from others though.

I think 149-150-151 is interesting to consider if that could be scumbuddies or not. And 219-230 is this misread of my post a sign Dunn knows PC is guilty or genuine misread?

Right now I think the PC fakeclaim gambit is riskier in a mafia world than a werewolf world (where outing the Seer has clear value) so I lean town on Drew given my inno. So I think PC's partner is Dunn or sheep, and more likely Dunn.

Starting to feel like you are just trying to throw things at the wall, hoping any theory sticks now.

Really feel like you are tailoring your defense to the evidence presented, instead of just stating why you are the more likely seer.

[Doctor Drew]

I am actually a secret alt of CeeJay, so all is good.

I honestly don't know what to make of the seer war, I am now leaning a way but will keep it close to vest for now.

[Doctor Drew]

I've changed my mind and am leaning towards imaginality being the real seer and Political Clout being mafia. I do think it is possible for Political Clout to have guessed imaginality see based on the way the rest of us acted - I am usually more careful with revealing role info but don't feel like I did due diligence this day 2.

justify this because I don't see any progression at all. It feels a lot like while towns away the scum will play. imag starts posting and then you start posting about me being scum makes me worried about prior communication in a private pt.

I think you could have claimed a guilty on imaginality without being the real seer. The cop died so that was the only thing to claim.

If you are mafia then you could have been trying to get reactions for the cop which could have been the actual important investigative role.

I might be willing to vote between dr drew and sheep today on the basis that a flip of mafia instead of wolf could give more info. And we already have the game split into 2 categories: you/imaginality and me/drew/sheep.

I mean, you can't leave yourself out of the lim pool, that just sounds sketchy as fuck.

[Doctor Drew]

I might be willing to vote between dr drew and sheep

today on the basis that a flip of mafia instead of wolf could give more info. And we already have the game split into 2 categories: you/imaginality and me/drew/sheep.

Maybe you just worded it weird, but you set it up like the lim is between myself and sheep......not you.

[Doctor Drew]

Drew u need to be talking about what ur thinking lmao

I wanted things to organically happen, but i get it lol.

I am leaning towards PC as scum.

Kinda feel the PC/Dunn things here recently is theater.......especially with Dunn wanting to only lim between myself and you.

And ya, Dunn, you wouldn't want to vote yourself......but as town you would have worded it differently. I feel you were trying to setup the mis-elim.

[Doctor Drew]

Drew u need to be talking about what ur thinking lmao

I wanted things to organically happen, but i get it lol.

I am leaning towards PC as scum.

Kinda feel the PC/Dunn things here recently is theater.......especially with Dunn wanting to only lim between myself and you.

And ya, Dunn, you wouldn't want to vote yourself......but as town you would have worded it differently. I feel you were trying to setup the mis-elim.

Faceplam emoji unintentional lol.

[Doctor Drew]

I think besides myself, Sheep is someone I can't see myself voting for. If they are scum then wp GG.

[Doctor Drew]

Dunn is there anything that u think associativeky makes pc or imag more/less likely to be paired with drew? What do u think of me thinking it seems like drew/imag

As I pointed out, if we eliminate drew and they flip mafia that means it has to be PC due to their claim.

Think about it. Day 1 PC claims cop. Let's say they are the anti-town: on day 1 there isn't a difference between claiming cop or seer, except for their own role and knowing if the scum faction is mafia/wolves. If PC is scum, and is fake claiming on day 1, there is potential for somebody to counter claim it. It therefore makes sense, to me, that they'd be claiming the role that would find their own faction.

In conclusion, I think that if PC is scum, they are more likely to be mafia than a wolf. This would make imaginality's result not mean anything.

As for what they've done this day phase? I thought Drew talking about my word choice and then PC saying that was a bad read felt a bit like distancing. I am leaning towards it being PC and Drew right now and I feel they have both started pushing me this day phase after I changed my mind.

I didn't push you, explicitly saying the lim should be between Sheep and I is a scum play, I just pointed it out.

[Doctor Drew]

Dunn is there anything that u think associativeky makes pc or imag more/less likely to be paired with drew? What do u think of me thinking it seems like drew/imag

As I pointed out, if we eliminate drew and they flip mafia that means it has to be PC due to their claim.

Think about it. Day 1 PC claims cop. Let's say they are the anti-town: on day 1 there isn't a difference between claiming cop or seer, except for their own role and knowing if the scum faction is mafia/wolves. If PC is scum, and is fake claiming on day 1, there is potential for somebody to counter claim it. It therefore makes sense, to me, that they'd be claiming the role that would find their own faction.

In conclusion, I think that if PC is scum, they are more likely to be mafia than a wolf. This would make imaginality's result not mean anything.

As for what they've done this day phase? I thought Drew talking about my word choice and then PC saying that was a bad read felt a bit like distancing. I am leaning towards it being PC and Drew right now and I feel they have both started pushing me this day phase after I changed my mind.

I didn't push you, explicitly saying the lim should be between Sheep and I is a scum play, I just pointed it out.

Your argument is that I should have said I should be the elimination

Well now I do believe you should be the elimination, what led me to believe that is you explicitly said the lim should be between myself and Sheep.....you wanted to pull yourself out of the lim pool.

[Doctor Drew]

How am I bloodthirsty?

Wanting to limit drew immediately now when we still have a lot of time left.

Ya, I am limitless

[Doctor Drew]

How am I bloodthirsty?

Wanting to limit drew immediately now when we still have a lot of time left.

What do you plan to do with our remaining time?

It feels like everyone is sort of in limbo rn. But probably I'm going to do less than imag because I can't use my laptop rn. And it feels like everyone who isn't dunn is treading carefully for some reason. Like from Dunn's pov he has solved the game so really nothing needs to be done except for push the people they think are scum but it is clear to me and I hope everyone that he has come up with that conclusion extremely fast and is saying crazy things like if sheep votes drew they are more than happy to vote drew with them. Drew isn't asking me any questions and neither is sheep so idk. Drew has said they like imag over me so that concerns me a lot since you are trying to kill him and he isn't saying anything about it like is drew giving up and I'm wrong about Dunn??? since I'm probably just a gut read for drew I would like drew to justify his scum read.

Dunn is scum. End of story.

VOTE: Dunn

If he wants to go down this route, then so be it.