mystery box of silver 15: i'm killing hostages (negotiated)

[HighPrincessErinys]

I think it's not worth waiting because we can probably solve this game and who knows if there are even going to be more home runs

I'm not talking about necessarily waiting until the next homer, no matter when that is, either. I'm not -- well, okay, I /wasn't/ -- deadset on even waiting through the next game, but Ranger's panic makes me want to really make that happen. I don't like that slot on a whole bunch of levels, right now, and I want to see another Edman homer almost entirely because Ranger doesn't.

real as hell

[Save The Dragons]

I mean we also could plow this wagon through sheep, xxyzz, and Ranger and be done with the game

[HighPrincessErinys]

Well yeah. But that's boring also.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I'm not fully convinced those three end this, personally.

[HighPrincessErinys]

Yeah this one isn't like, too super sure about Ranger still even if this opposition to the homerun plan seems really weird to it.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I feel like sheep isn't a sure thing, either. Ranger could flip either way right now without too much surprise to me. I also have lingering doubts about Koba and Skygazer being safely town, though not enough to press on.

[Skygazer]

i think it's optimal to wait for a homerun bc it looks like ending the day will take scum out of the tommy kill pool based on how schadd worded this day's opening votecount? feel like we're bound to have another homer before the game is over anyways so why not just chill and vibe for the next homer and hope it hits scum

[MUSHSHAGANA]

i think it's optimal to wait for a homerun bc it looks like ending the day will take scum out of the tommy kill pool based on how schadd worded this day's opening votecount? feel like we're bound to have another homer before the game is over anyways so why not just chill and vibe for the next homer and hope it hits scum

It's optimal right up until it drags shit out too long and no one cares about the game. One or two games is about the limit there -- if he doesn't homer by then, I wouldn't want to wait longer.

[Meuh]

I can agree with that, let's give Tommy a chance to do his thing and if he doesn't after a few days we can just lim someone normally

[RCEnigma]

I’m fine with waiting. This game was supposed to be months long from my understanding on signup.

So this is fun.

[Dannflor]

we will inevitably kill someone in a day or two because that is how much patience a mob tends to have

[Skygazer]

apologies in advance for when i inevitably succumb to mob mentality in two days

[schadd_]

petapan posthumously replaces Morning Tweet

[HighPrincessErinys]

petapan posthumously replaces Morning Tweet

omg hiiiii peta
gotta wait a good while for a reply now

[xyzzy]

VOTE: Ranger

honestly i do not understand why anyone would go into this game assuming that they can suss out what schadd, who has perfect knowledge of the setup and all alignments, would interpret as scummy. trying to play around the assumption that tommy will do his beautiful work and then we'll

definitely

lose a slot that was already in contention.

also hello petapan! congrats on corpsehood

[Ranger]

I mean we also could plow this wagon through sheep, xxyzz, and Ranger and be done with the game

Try sheepsaysmeep, xyzzy, RCEnigma, ofrhz, and then see how close we are to being done with the game.

[RCEnigma]

3 of these being town would not surprise me.

[Ranger]

I'm not talking about necessarily waiting until the next homer, no matter when that is, either. I'm not -- well, okay, I /wasn't/ -- deadset on even waiting through the next game, but Ranger's panic makes me want to really make that happen.

I've also an interest in seeing the next homerun, for a different reason.

To demonstrate I

wasn't

"panicking" and your insistence on schadd magically changing target types when there's a clear pattern on who he seems to scumread pointing

away

from the areas we'd want him to shoot, was ignorance.

If the likes of Skygazer die leaving all of {xyzzy, sheepsaysmeep, RCEnigma, ofrhz} alive when scum can be targeted, will you admit I was right?

[Ranger]

Yeah this one isn't like, too super sure about Ranger still even if this opposition to the homerun plan seems really weird to it.

One point to consider; I am town.

If scum were truly worried, they'd be supporting my plan to get them out of the pool by pushing eliminations through. They have a town player to take the fall for helping them advance a proscum agenda.

Since those efforts haven't materialized, either they're okay with the plan or they don't like who would be pushed through to elimination(sheepsaysmeep).

The scum think "wait for a homerun" is their best available option by play right now. If they didn't, then there would be greater efforts for an alternative.

[Ranger]

honestly i do not understand why anyone would go into this game assuming that they can suss out what schadd, who has perfect knowledge of the setup and all alignments, would interpret as scummy.

We've got three data points which give a reasonably good picture of where schadd has been focusing. That gives a fairly good idea of who he'll shoot next. Spoiler alert: nobody we want shot. The inclusion of scum in the pool of players to shoot is bait. It's something which could theoretically hit scum, yet won't.

trying to play around the assumption that tommy will do his beautiful work and then we'll

definitely

lose a slot that was already in contention.

By "already in contention", you mean 'within the poe'? Because that's my issue with the plan of "wait and see"; they are doing precisely this. They're assuming we'll

definitely

lose a slot in contention(the poe), which is the exact opposite of what's

actually

likely to happen.

Source; I actually paid attention to the pattern behind the kills and more importantly what the kills

weren't

.

[Ranger]

I'll state it simply.

What would schadd not killing any of {xyzzy, sheepsaysmeep, RCEnigma, ofrhz}

actually

tell you?

If your answer is any form of "there’s deepscum in the game", then you have a fundamental misunderstanding about the central game mechanic.

If your answer gives any alignment to those four, then you are mistaken.

schadd killing outside the poe tells us one thing and one thing only; schadd's reads are radically different than our own, and he can/will execute players we never would have.

That’s it. There’s nothing further to glean from it. You can draw conclusions all you like. The truth remains the above.

If the idea a town player can disagree with your, visibly flawed, plan, is a foreign concept to you: perhaps reconsider your biases. If you assign "panic" to strong disagreement over the mechanics discussed, then you have closed your mind off.

I’ve laid out my arguments fairly extensively.

My arguments are simply: schadd will kill whoever he views as scummiest and his views

do not match ours

, so waiting will result in someone (likely town) dead we wouldn’t want dead.

I have the backing for this off his actual past kills.

Whatever route leads to dead scum, I’ll be happy to take. If I am wrong, I’ll own up. If your flawed logic off incorrect premises still lands a scum elimination, I certainly won’t complain about how it was the right read for completely wrong reasons.

Still, I maintain this plan is disproportionately +scum, as schadd has demonstrated who he prefers killing, and is likely to shoot outside the names we'd prefer and hit town.

I maintain this gives no indication of who is scum, and reveals only one fact; another data point for what schadd sees as scummy.

Since you are determined to delay a likely scum elimination on sheepsaysmeep, we’ll be rolling the dice on who is right, with it shown in time.

I like my odds, personally.

[Dannflor]

rabble rabble

[Save The Dragons]

[Skygazer]

My arguments are simply: schadd will kill whoever he views as scummiest and his views do not match ours, so waiting will result in someone (likely town) dead we wouldn’t want dead.

I have the backing for this off his actual past kills.

counterpoint: maybe the people who died died because the scum are obvscum

[HighPrincessErinys]

This one still thinks waiting for the next two games to see what happens is MUCH preferable to blindly trusting you on "Guys I've cracked the schadd code there is no way this works in our favor".