Micro 1089: the coalition, again [game over]

[hellbooks]

killing isis is obviously disadvantageous for scum infinity thats for sure
even if the switch from isis -> fire at end of yday is supposed to represent some strategy shift into setting up a fire f3 lim

[Infinity 324]

i guess i'm wondering what you were expecting from town!me there who had 3 minutes to decide on who to vote. maybe you didn't understand the urgency at the time or the sliding scale reads thing but like it's a vote how scummy can it be

[fireisredsir]

killing isis is obviously disadvantageous for scum infinity thats for sure
even if the switch from isis -> fire at end of yday is supposed to represent some strategy shift into setting up a fire f3 lim

do you think it's me, then?

[fireisredsir]

i guess i'm wondering what you were expecting from town!me there who had 3 minutes to decide on who to vote. maybe you didn't understand the urgency at the time or the sliding scale reads thing but like it's a vote how scummy can it be

yea i didn't get the impression from any of your earlier posts that i would be near the bottom of your reads, so that was the main confusing bit

[Infinity 324]

i think scum is a lot more likely to be jarred that they are my biggest scumread suddenly than town is

[hellbooks]

i havent given up on reconciling my scum infinity theory preference with the nightkill and in fact i havent even really started that task (remember i shut down the brain factory)
if i really thought it was you i would kind of already have bet the game on it and voted. lol

[fireisredsir]

objectively i think you're right that a vote on tris is probably something that should be found more scummy by me in that situation. because rationally i think that + a hellbooks nk + continuing to convince me it could be isis (or just letting isis vote me) is a really clean and smooth path to you winning the game

however i guess i do have at least a little bit of omgus instinct and it does shake me out of my worldview a little bit when someone suddenly suspects me when i didn't think they did

[hellbooks]

if i had to give a weight to the importance of things in my mind to figure out it would be like
3/10 - "The Nightkill"
3/10 - infinity switching from isis to fire
2/10 - skitter partner equity
2/10 - everything else

look at my awesome recency bias

[fireisredsir]

i think scum is a lot more likely to be jarred that they are my biggest scumread suddenly than town is

it feels like a lot of your points are based on thinking that i struggle to avoid putting honest emotions into my posts when im scum. ik you said you don't like the self-meta but i don't think that's something i've ever struggled with

and anyway im just not really sure why you think this. i felt like as town i was solving with you and we were both starting to think it could be isis and i was starting to believe that it was, and then it felt like i had the rug pulled out and actually you're suspecting me. and then i had to figure out if that was something coming from scum or if i just had been heavily misreading the vibe of the situation (which is always a very jarring feeling for me when that happens)

[fireisredsir]

if i had to give a weight to the importance of things in my mind to figure out it would be like
3/10 - "The Nightkill"
3/10 - infinity switching from isis to fire
2/10 - skitter partner equity
2/10 - everything else

look at my awesome recency bias

at this point i think that both of the first two point more towards infinity town than scum

[Infinity 324]

most of my scumhunting is based on the idea that players would struggle to do something as scum

i don't know how to say "scum would play the game like x" with any sort of confidence

[hellbooks]

HEAL: isis
HEAL: isis
HEAL: isis
me, holding back tears: why isnt it working

[fireisredsir]

i mean yeah i guess but it seems like an unusual thing to struggle with. im a chat maf player, real timing and reactions is like the thing im best at usually

i guess im guilty of the same type of thing where i look at a post and it's easy to imagine that scum was honestly feeling something that made them post in that way but i don't think i've ever been right about those reads

[fireisredsir]

re: hellbooks i don't have one

i do actually have one im just struggling to get myself to believe that it could be right

i can go into it later though

[Infinity 324]

fire do you think skitt was trying to stay alive? it feels weird to me to have her rallying for a wagon on sheep and meanwhile her partner is just sitting there bussing. idk

[hellbooks]

how often does scum make a completely unoptimal night kill in hopes of getting some town cred from it
probably not often right
or even never
i dont have a working memory of very many games
i guess the only thing that makes it remotely viable is that scum infinity probably still estimates a baseline of like 50-50 odds in this current F3 scenario

[hellbooks]

you could very easily suggest that i wasnt bussing skitter i simply voted her as a joke partner interaction and then got too scared to move it off when shit got real

[hellbooks]

not me trying to preemptively snatch away fire's scumbooks theory
and missing terribly, i presume

[fireisredsir]

fire do you think skitt was trying to stay alive? it feels weird to me to have her rallying for a wagon on sheep and meanwhile her partner is just sitting there bussing. idk

im not sure why that would be weird

i do think she was trying to stay alive as best as she could given the time she had

if her partner decided to bus, then it's still good for skitter to force a town flip before she goes down, because then her partner still gets the cred for bussing and also there's been another townflip. there's not really any downside to that and in fact i think that's like exactly what scum should do a lot of the time -- the one who is going down first should powerwolf as hard as they can

if her partner decided not to bus, then there's probably more incentive for skitter to set herself up to last longer, because either her partner is hoping to powerwolf together and win in 5p, or hoping to look uninformed (?) or something idk. i think that's generally the less optimal play but also scum don't always plan ahead or think for endgame sometimes they just take the town lims that are in front of them

[fireisredsir]

not me trying to preemptively snatch away fire's scumbooks theory
and missing terribly, i presume

i couldn't actually remember what your vote was doing at the time but i don't think it's like super relevant

i think both paths are possible for scum to take and i am not sure why it would be clearing (or condemning) for anyone

[fireisredsir]

basically where im at rn is that im not reading a ton into skitter lim day bc the two people that i thought most likely to be scum off that were tris and sheep and so it feels like exceptionally silly to just keep reaching further into that bucket and hoping that it's finally right

i think the correct answer is that skitter played well (bc she is good at scum!) to set things up so that it seemed like people who are town were her partners as she was going down

and so im more interested rn in coalition forming and other portions of the game

[fireisredsir]

anyway the real question is

Does anyone alive really believe scum was off the wagon yesterday?

[hellbooks]

it kind of feels like fire is activating a bunch of awesome cooldowns right now

[hellbooks]

in particularly i got a little starry-eyed at 4545

[fireisredsir]

how do you tell the difference between towny post and scum whos busting out all the chops

aka how do you tell the difference between scummy post and town whose busting out none of the chops

if you're town kinda funny that this is what you have to decide between lol (although infinity has busted a lot of chops regardless of alignment and i respect that)