Micro 1089: the coalition, again [game over]
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hellbooks ShePost of the YearShe
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fire saying "i almost had success by only considering what was happening in real time in ELO and not in anything else" when he knows that if i were to do that myself it would come out so in his favor-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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genuinely very sorry if they had that effectIn post 4794, Infinity 324 wrote: there are a bunch of things you've posted this day phase that would make me feel bad for voting you. and i don't think that's what town!you actually wants so unless you're coming off way different than you intend i don't think you'd actually be posting those things as town
i really don't like when people do that because i am very effected by those type of posts, so i definitely wouldn't want to do that to anyone else. ill try to do more to avoid things that are in that realm
if you're town i don't think you should feel bad for voting me-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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you talked about how there was one post where she had hellbooks at the top of her list of people she didn't want in and then i talked about how there were a bunch of posts were she was much more willing to consider putting me in and then you didn't really engage with that and kept the same opinion i thinkIn post 4794, Infinity 324 wrote: pedit: i don't think that is factually true and i talked about this-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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i don't think my levels of demoralization have much to do with this specific game was what i was trying to get atIn post 4794, Infinity 324 wrote: i don't think you'd be demoralized here as town because you said you weren't demoralized. and unless you're confident i'm town you shouldn't be that demoralized as town here-
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hellbooks ShePost of the YearShe
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i would like to restate that im coming off a game where i misvoted in ELO and as much as i didnt really show it that ended up sucking a lot. i guess only for the rest of the day though
so its not that much of a mental punishment
im going to fumble it when it comes down to voting fire
sorry im trying to fit a parody of the song "the wire" by haim and failing
ive done my due dilligence as a good little scumhunter by performing consideration on both sides but if asked at any point in this ELO i would have answered that id vote fire for a big majority of it-
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hellbooks ShePost of the YearShe
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its simply a little hard to admit that because it alludes to the relative futility of all of the discussion had during this day phase for me although i guess its way easier to swallow since im having fun still-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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Spoiler: skitt pushing for fire to be outside the coal
i also think the scumread feels forced which is more likely as a scumpartner than knowing you are town which i originally thought. if you are town there is no reason to force the read really
i think you convinced me that skitt didn't need to do much if scum with hellbooks because hellbooks wasn't really ever going to be in the coal. but i think she was happy with hellbooks in the coal at most point lmk if you want quotes-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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i guess the difference here is early vs late in the day
i think skitter was honest when she made the post about how ideal scum strategy is to try to both get in and then only once things are coalescing do you try to aim for 1 in 1 out
pushing your partner out from the beginning is a lot riskier-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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hm yeah i just think that skitt was pretty widely townread from pretty early but that's something i have to reread-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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early in the day she was scumreading me and pushing me out, and townreading hellbooks
late in the day when things actually started coalescing there were points also where she was considering putting me in and she wasn't really ever entertaining the possibility of putting hellbooks in-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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she wasn't really and part of the reason she started getting townread was because she was content with everyone leaving her outIn post 4808, Infinity 324 wrote: hm yeah i just think that skitt was pretty widely townread from pretty early but that's something i have to reread-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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she did townread me like in rvs but that dropped off before she got townread herself-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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i am reading and i can't find a point where she wants both herself and hellbooks in the coal so yes i guess i would like quotes if you have thatIn post 4806, Infinity 324 wrote: but i think she was happy with hellbooks in the coal at most point lmk if you want quotes
around the time that she starts getting put in coals is around the time that her read on hellbooks drops and she pushes her out-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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oh you mean at 787?-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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yeah
i think that comes at the point where she is just kinda starting to get some townreads-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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ok i will reread-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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im gonna track peoples progressions it'll take a minute tho-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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maybe the plan was to put hellbooks in the coal and then bus her. but hellbooks didn't particularly seem to be going along with that plan-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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yeah that is one of her first posts after a bunch of people healed her grrrIn post 4814, fireisredsir wrote: yeah
i think that comes at the point where she is just kinda starting to get some townreads-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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while tracking progressions i found this joke post about how scum didn't post on page 82 and its literally correctIn post 2049, fireisredsir wrote: it's confirmed in hellbooks/bulge/skitter-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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isis
- initial position is skitter is hard to read so leave her out
- 214 skitter is probably town for not looking like she has an agenda
- 357 she probably wants skitter in coal
- 570 heals skitter
- from this point on she pretty much just solidly townreads skitter
- 1380 says she'll proxy vote skitter
- 1461 is notable in that it convinced sheep and kinda signifies skitter moving into towncore
sheep
- 629 first mention of skitter is putting her in a coalition
- 658 "skitter isfinebut thats a low quality read"
- 874 skitter is fine ish, good vibes, doesn't feel like she has a scum agenda
- 936 puts her in coal again as his 5th slot
- 1262 skitter is a little bit towny for not giving sheep an easy townread that he probably doesn't deserve
- 1476 skitter paranoia quashed
- his position on skitter doesn't really change from here on
- agrees with tris/skitter/shea towncore in 2234
ari
- 348 agrees with me and wants skitter in the fun car
- 367 makes a coal without skitter
- 539 still wants skitter out
- 794 says a coalition with skitter in it will win
- 1394 first time voting for a coalition with skitter in it
- i should note that ari doesn't really directly state a read on skitter much at all during this time. she tends to have more rigid worldviews where for a while she thought the team was me/shea, so therefore everyone else is town. but somewhere in there she does seem to transition from wanting skitter out to being fine with her in
- 1797 has a readlist with skitter/hellbooks/bulge at the bottom. ouch. gj ari. but she's trying to work with consensus and that involves putting skitter in
- 1954 paranoid of skitter a bit
- 2180 bulge is outed scum and makes sense as partnered with shea/sheep/fire. maybe skitter but she thinks skitter is town
shea
- 84 rvs read of skitter scum
- 476 votes a coalition with skitter in it
- 519 hurts skitter, doesn't like an interaction they had
- 535 scum team is skitter and ari
- 547 explains why
- 1049 says a coalition without skitter wins
- 1137 argues with skitter a bit but doesn't necessarily seem to have her as lockscum
- 1189 doesn't have a good reason to scumread skitter but disagrees with her worldview
- 1358 considers a coalition that has skitter in it (that ari proposed)
- 1498 still has something stuck in his craw about skitter
- 1687 iffy on skitter but is considering voting a coalition with her in it
- 1861 heals skitter
- from here to end of phase he is pretty much pushing coalitions that have skitter in them
fire
- 110 skitter is neutral
- 347 i tell ari i want skitter in the fun car
- 470 don't actively scumread skitter but considering worlds where she might be content being left out because she's scum with someone who's solidly in
- 554 skitter posting is fine rn
- 920 agree with sheep that skitter feels a little towny due to being agendaless
- 921 and 923 i reference some posts that ping me as town for skitter
- btw for reference most of this time i am holding on to a heal list of shea/tris/hellbooks
- 1344 hey i also agreed with the ari coal that had skitter in it
- 1683 votes for a coalition with skitter in it
- 1827 long rambly thought dump on skitter. still think she feels agendaless but not that confident
- 2159 here i start formalizing the coalition core of shea/tris/skitter. i think around here marks the point where skitter is in basically every coal
hellbooks
- 154 agrees with a post from skitter
- 386 begins firing the laser at skitter
- 1700 philosophical manifesto in response to ari asking her if she likes a coalition that includes skitter. i think the conclusion is "not really and we should put you in it"
- 1802 readlist that has skitter in the lower portion
- 1820 doomed to always be a little bit suspicious of skitter
- 2056 when skitter asks why she's being lasered she says it's like a magnum opus piece. and also later in the post says that she's fine with being in the fun car or with being put in the coal and then limmed
The Bulge/brassherald
- 317 skitter isn't touching his coalition. votes one without her
- 345 says skitter is omgus him when she says she won't put him in hers either
- 2340 brass subs in
- 2358 recognizes the consensus of tris/shea/skitter as the coalition core
- he then only votes for ones with those people in them. not a lot of time to develop a read so not much there-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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omg i forgot tris hold on sorry tris-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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ok so to kind of condense these into a general timeline i think we have:
posts about 1-500: most people are around neutral on skitter, and general consensus i think seems to be that we should leave her out because she's a strong player who isn't obvtown yet. skitter herself seems on board with this. isis does townread skitter, hellbooks and bulge seem to scumread skitter but without much thread influence
posts about 500-900ish: skitter trajectory tends to improve for most people, except shea who thinks she's scum with ari. but gradually light townreads seem to be developing. isis townread still going strong. reasoning is often in the realm of her not pushing herself into the coalition and not seeming like she's trying to win the game for scum
posts about 900-1300ish: townreads solidify a little more, with multiple people talking about how she feels agendaless. fire and sheep go from more neutral reads to townleans, shea loses his scumread
posts about 1300-1800ish: skitter townreads solidify further, especially with fire/ari/shea/sheep all being on board with a skitter coalition. isis and others are casing skitter as town and she is moving from "slightly weak borderline town" in the consensus into "stronger town"
posts about 1800-2200: coalition starts to coalesce around a tris/shea/skitter towncore. there's not a lot of protest to these names and most people tend to agree with them being in-
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fireisredsir Jack of All Trades
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i will also as a very unhelpful editors note say that both when i was tracking the hellbooks skitter progression and the bulge skitter progression i was like "wow this looks extremely scummy"
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