In post 1249, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1244, Doctor Drew wrote:
But, I fear you aren't giving credence to an 'active scum' here......and also hunting lurkers is an easy crutch for scum to fall back on when a mis lim happens 'oops, I mean what were they contributing anyways, amirite?'
sure, these are both valid points. I would reiterate this is my early game / D1 approach more than my overall philosophy - it's certainly possible we have an 'active' scum deepwolfing and influencing things right now, I just don't have any proven reliable or easy ways to catch such a scum on D1. and the consequences if you get it wrong (limming / minimizing a strong vocal town player) are far worse than if you get it wrong on a lurky disengaged townie.
You're also right that this is an easy crutch for scum to fall back on, that's why we should start with these players and sort or eliminate them as early as possible, so scum can't shield them for later miseliminations. Imagine Sail is town but we just ignore them completely, they keep participating at about the rate they are now, we don't get much actionable info as it relates to their slot because they're not voting or pushing wagons, and now suddenly it's D6 with 7 players alive and 3 mafia. How confident are you going to be that Sail is town based on what we have at that point? and how easy will it be for the mafia to push Sail
then
?
or let's say Dann and Sail are both town. It's clearly a much bigger win for the mafia if we miseliminate Dann here than if we miseliminate Sail, right? and I don't mean for this to be a judgment on Sail's abilities, I'd love it if Sail gave more of themselves to the thread, I am not trying to say Dann is always a better player. I'm just saying given what they've done up to this point so far, a town!Dann is a more threatening player to mafia. He's more widely townread and he's more likely to catch a scum and drive a wagon on them, simply because he's more involved.
it really is largely a) that I didn't feel like their Norwee vote was genuine, it felt like something Sail did because there was an opportunity to believably join a budding wagon rather than an earnest scumread of theirs along with b) I don't feel Sail has done a whole lot to push people. They're asking questions and commenting on things but it hasn't had enough of an impact for me to reach a level of D1 townread.
Or for another example - in regard to osuka, they've positioned a few times with reasons to suspect him (
700,
1117) but there's no vote accompanying either of these callouts. I would normally want/expect town to vote osuka there, it puts more pressure on osuka, and it puts more pressure on everyone else (including hypothetical scum!osuka's scumbuddies) to address the wagon, either joining or declining to join. but instead Sail's just posting reasons to suspect osuka - my cynical/uncharitable view would be that this is either in hopes of getting other folks to get their hands dirty by voting an osuka miselim so Sail doesn't have to, or just angling so that their eventual osuka vote feels more 'believable' because the trajectory was neatly laid out in prior posts.
on re-ISOing Sail (and as it relates to the last comment on osuka in
1237), the most townie thing I see is a handful of references to doing meta research on players. If these meta dives are genuine then Sail is likely town, because scum wouldn't need to check meta in the first place and wouldn't be able to use meta to support a bogus scumread. however these references to looking at past games have been very surface level, so I'd appreciate a bit more detail from Sail with osuka in particular what games they looked at and what patterns they noticed in scum!osuka's completed games that may apply here.
