Night Watch Open 95 - Game Over before 703

[Xtoxm]

Well, that's what, 3 claimed townies and the Cop? Not much left for the Mafia to look in...

[bionicchop2]

I think the hider needs to be discussed - claim vs. continue hypoclaim 1 more day vs. don't do either.

I think process of elimination for scum will allow them to deduct who the hider is. We know camn has a spreadsheet. She may be scum. Scum may also have the hypoclaim laid out.

We have 9 players. Remove 2 scum and there are 7 possible. Remove role cop and you have 6. Remove crazy (if town) and you have 5. Remove xtoxm (if town - since he claimed townie) and you have 4. Remove camn who claimed townie and you have 3.

Hider is one of afatchic, bionicchop2, icemanE, ortolan, StrangerCoug minus the 2 scum (unless the 2 scum are accounted for elsewhere - camn, xtoxm, crazy).

Scum can also use the hypoclaim in reverse by eliminating people who said they hid behind scum.

I think it is possible scum already knows hider and I would not be against a claim today. If we decide not to claim, then I would say we do not continue the hypoclaim because it may give scum an easy double kill.

Now, if hider does claim, it can narrow down our suspects to 5 players (Role cop is clear, hider is clear, 2 townies would be clear - assuming no overlaps) giving a 40% shot on a completely random lynch. Hider can then either proceed to claim targets attempting to hide behind scum (risk double kill vs. finding scum) or just hide without claiming and target someone they know is town (33% double kill shot for scum) or random hide.

[bionicchop2]

Town has 2 mislynches in hand at this point anyway.

i didn't realize that. so it might be a good idea for the hider to claim now if they do have two innos. then we can probably narrow it down from there. if hider thinks this is a good idea, go ahead and claim i guess.

Simulpost!

[bionicchop2]

also, i haven't really thought this one through all the way, but what if we do a quick no lynch, let the hider clear one more, or find a mafia, and then we are guaranteed a win.

This would require another hypoclaim. Depends if we think scum already know hider. I think they would by now (but maybe they don't or they would have gone for double kill?)

[Xtoxm]

Didn't realise Camn claimed townie. Well now Fat has too, so I think Hider should just claim.

[afatchic]

Didn't realise Camn claimed townie. Well now Fat has too, so I think Hider should just claim.

I can claim mason, or SK, or Cult... but none of that matters. so why are we believing every time someone claims townie?

[bionicchop2]

Didn't realise Camn claimed townie. Well now Fat has too, so I think Hider should just claim.

I can claim mason, or SK, or Cult... but none of that matters. so why are we believing every time someone claims townie?

We are just believing it as a claim of 'not hider'. If camn was hider and claimed it saying at the same time she was getting some votes for a lynch, then it is a horrible move for a hider.

[afatchic]

Didn't realise Camn claimed townie. Well now Fat has too, so I think Hider should just claim.

I can claim mason, or SK, or Cult... but none of that matters. so why are we believing every time someone claims townie?

We are just believing it as a claim of 'not hider'. If camn was hider and claimed it saying at the same time she was getting some votes for a lynch, then it is a horrible move for a hider.

But she could be scum. i may have misread, but it seems like everyone is taking it as she is confirmed townie.

[StrangerCoug]

Xtoxm, I love it when you ignore my request to explain why exactly you think icemanE and I are the most likely scum of those of us that haven't claimed a power role. You say you use process of elimination to scumhunt., and despite my not wanting to know why you think the other unknowns are town, even your explaining why you think those people are town is vague.

Vote: Xtoxm

[StrangerCoug]

EBWOP: Delete the second period.

[Xtoxm]

Vote SC

[StrangerCoug]

Welcome to OMGUS land.

[afatchic]

hey now we are moving somewhere!

[afatchic]

Vote SC

Reasoning behind this?

[orangepenguin]

A no lynch might be a good idea, but I figure I would be night killed. Since the role role I can successfully investigate now is the hider, I am not that important anymore, besides confirming who isn't the hider and being another town body out there. If we no lynch, I suggest the hider to NOT hide behind me, cause I think they'd die, wouldn't they? It's kind of WIFOM that they'd kill me, but still. I am the likely candidate. It is possible for the scum to know who the hider is. I don't think the hider should claim though, unless he is going to be lynched.

[afatchic]

A no lynch might be a good idea, but I figure I would be night killed. Since the role role I can successfully investigate now is the hider, I am not that important anymore, besides confirming who isn't the hider and being another town body out there. If we no lynch, I suggest the hider to NOT hide behind me, cause I think they'd die, wouldn't they? It's kind of WIFOM that they'd kill me, but still. I am the likely candidate. It is possible for the scum to know who the hider is. I don't think the hider should claim though, unless he is going to be lynched.

I think the No-Lynch is a good idea if we can pull it off. right now its 7 townie vs 2 mafia, with most likely 4 town confirmed.
Double kill:
so even if the mafia get a double kill, it would be 5 vs 2, with one mislynch and 3 confirmed. then from that i think there will be atleast one more you can narrow it down to. which would give you two scum between three people with a mislynch. should be town win.
Hider hides behind mafia:
then its 5 vs 2 again, with 3 cleared, plus a confirmed mafia. which would make it 4 vs 1 with 2 cleared, and from that you can probably clear another. should result in a town win.
Hider gets another townie:
then its 6 vs 2 with 4 confirmed townies. should be a town win again.

i really think anyway we look at it, it should result in town win.

[afatchic]

Not sure how good of an idea this may be... when i looked back, it looks like it can be narrowed down to two or three people depending on whos mafia. i'd like to hear other peoples ideas about it.

[ortolan]

also, i haven't really thought this one through all the way, but what if we do a quick no lynch, let the hider clear one more, or find a mafia, and then we are guaranteed a win.

your idea has potential, but bear in mind that the mafia have better odds of guessing the hider than town do- they know if someone has previously claimed to hide behind mafia and lived that this person is not the hider.

Nevertheless I will start the night three hypoclaim (the no lynch doesn't have to folllow). I ask two things- Crazy and OP please don't bother claiming as we know you're not the hider, and it limits who we have to choose from to hide behind. Secondly please ensure that you choose to hide behind a different person from either of night 1 or 2.

Here is the original list but I believe some people changed after it so tell us if you did:

hypoclaim n1 wrote:

bionicchop2--->camn
camn---------->Bionic
TCS------------->Crazy
StrangerCoug--->orangepenguin
afatchic--------->icemanE
orangepenguin-->Xtoxm
Xtoxm------------>camn
icemanE------->afatchic
Crazy-------->Panda Stomper 85
ortolan-------->Bionic


hypoclaim n2 wrote:

bionicchop2---->Xtoxm
camn------------>afatchic
TCS------------->Panda Stomper 85
StrangerCoug--->orangepenguin
afatchic--------->StrangerCoug
orangepenguin-->ortolan
Xtoxm--------->icemanE
icemanE----->StrangerCoug
Crazy--------->TCS
ortolan--------->camn

Tonight I will hide behind icemanE.

[afatchic]

your idea has potential, but bear in mind that the mafia have better odds of guessing the hider than town do- they know if someone has previously claimed to hide behind mafia and lived that this person is not the hider.

Yeah i checked it, and considering the people we have clear, i still think there are three people that can possibly be the hider. so the scum have a 1/3 shot at a double kill. however if they go for the double kill, they may kill an unchecked, and then give us even better odds. Also, camn don't bother claiming either, since the RC already checked you.

Tonight ill hide behind Camn.

[ortolan]

Also, camn don't bother claiming either, since the RC already checked you.

What?

[Xtoxm]

No. An NL would be idiotic, waste one of our mislycnhes, and get a confirmed townie killed.

[ortolan]

Actually, sorry, I realised I hadn't read the last 1-2 pages properly.

I actually agree with bionic's post 526:

I think the hider needs to be discussed - claim vs. continue hypoclaim 1 more day vs. don't do either.

I think process of elimination for scum will allow them to deduct who the hider is. We know camn has a spreadsheet. She may be scum. Scum may also have the hypoclaim laid out.

We have 9 players. Remove 2 scum and there are 7 possible. Remove role cop and you have 6. Remove crazy (if town) and you have 5. Remove xtoxm (if town - since he claimed townie) and you have 4. Remove camn who claimed townie and you have 3.

Hider is one of afatchic, bionicchop2, icemanE, ortolan, StrangerCoug minus the 2 scum (unless the 2 scum are accounted for elsewhere - camn, xtoxm, crazy).

Scum can also use the hypoclaim in reverse by eliminating people who said they hid behind scum.

I think it is possible scum already knows hider and I would not be against a claim today. If we decide not to claim, then I would say we do not continue the hypoclaim because it may give scum an easy double kill.

Now, if hider does claim, it can narrow down our suspects to 5 players (Role cop is clear, hider is clear, 2 townies would be clear - assuming no overlaps) giving a 40% shot on a completely random lynch. Hider can then either proceed to claim targets attempting to hide behind scum (risk double kill vs. finding scum) or just hide without claiming and target someone they know is town (33% double kill shot for scum) or random hide.

If the hider claims and is not counter-claimed then we have 3 cleared townies, including the hider themselves (because there is no chance of the hider giving us redundant information, because if they hid behind someone who was nightkilled they would have already died also). On scum counter-claiming hider: firstly this may very well be impossible or obviously true based on the hypoclaim choices. Secondly even if there are multiple claims and we somehow lynch the wrong person we can lynch the fakeclaiming scum the next day with no hassles. Finally, looking at the hypoclaims, it looks like at least one of *my* most likely scum suspects will be cleared by this process, giving at least me more info.

Furthermore as bionic says I think there's a very good chance scum already know who the hider is, which will just lower our odds of winning by the double nightkill. I advocate a hider claim at this point.

[ortolan]

Oh and furthermore my astonishment in post 544 was explained by me not having read properly

[bionicchop2]

Oh and furthermore my astonishment in post 544 was explained by me not having read properly

You read properly. Afatchic wrote improperly. OP has never checked camn.

[bionicchop2]

I disagree with a no lynch here. I prefer to keep odd numbers whenever possible. If there is a double kill, then we have the option to nl tomorrow.