Spoiler:
In post 550, catboi wrote:Also I think ydrasse is significantly scummier than cakez and I don't think they're ever a team so I'd want to flip her before him always. But that's just my opinion.In post 546, catboi wrote: Your annoyance at cakez and his vote was the thing that scared me a little bit on him because I can see him doing the overtly scummy thing as scum b/c he just doesn't care. However I've committed myself to shielding him for today, even if it makes me look foolish.
In post 587, SirCakez wrote:ok well I appreciate you if you're town here <3In post 478, catboi wrote:look i'm just trying to save you from being misyeeted for once in your careerIn post 464, SirCakez wrote: catboi I want to say is town but I'm worried he may be trying to pocket me so idk. Wouldn't vote rn but definitely not safe town
but if you're scum
In post 599, catboi wrote: I think GL accusing Cakez of chainsawing me is moving into "hard to fathom as being the real belief of a town player" territory. It's enough in the territory that I would be okay with voting him today, because his arguments have gotten continually worse, and look more like he's trying to "score points" with every attack rather than attempting to discern a perspective or actually investigate alignments. (I think even if he's town the way he's playing right is outright anti-town, not because he's reading me wrong but because of him tunneling in a single-minded fashion where everything someone does only adds further fuel to the fire. I think if allowed to live he will harm the town regardless of his alignment. That's simply how I've come to view this type of play. I've been guilty of it many times in the past (no pun intended), and part of the reason I've been playing restrained this game is to try to curb that tendency. I think he absolutely should not be allowed leadership/agency in this game).
Luke is simply mad I dared to suspect him. He is probably town and gets resolved mechanically either way. I wish he would not play so emotionally, but at his core he's still the same newbie I flew off the handle at for deathtunneling me a couple years ago.
I think Ydrasse's contributions to the game have overall been minimal to non-existant. Her main reads have been to defend elle for getting flustered, and OMGUSing Cakez. The elle read is not really logical because scum get flustered all the time, and instead comes across as white-knighting a player who was an early push. The Cakez read is entirely reactive and can easily be scum motivated. Beyond that, she shaded me for suggesting I'd be okay voting elle, and then shaded luke for calling her town. This is all play that is merely reacting to major events going on in the thread and responding to them, it takes very little effort. It doesn't feel investigative, like she's actually parsing the game and trying to figure anything out - rather she's simply commenting on big things or things that mention her. I think she is actively procrastinating on contributing to the thread and this is more likely to come from scum who is struggling to manufacture content.
I think the reasons that have been given for her being town are not very good. Guiltylion is suggesting her feeling concerned about the thread vibes being against her is a towntell. I think this is not convincing because it's ultimately a "vibe-based" read that is related t attitude, and that thing can be faked, or maybe she was just legitimately feeling threatened. Dunn says she is more charismatic as mafia early - again, this is a vibe-based read that is really not convincing. Luke is town reading her because she made a joke on page 1 and because she is defending his slot. I think this is obviously terrible reasoning n face value. Early game gutreads are not very likely to be accurate, and townreading someone simply for defending you means you are highly likely to fall into a pocket. Scum defend players who otherwise look to be uncontested wagons all the time. I think he is biased because he disliked being run up so quickly upon entering the game (which to be fair is an entirely understandable response), and so has latched on to anyone he saw as being protective of him.
That's my reasoning for Ydrasse being scum, it could be wrong, I don't think my read accuracy is particularly special. I would still prefer to flip her or GL if I'm voted out today.
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It's very hard for me to explain how I'm reading pooky but I simply get the feel he is being genuine every time he posts, the way he spoke about me felt unrestrained and like it was coming from a town perspective. Similarly, Bell getting irritated with Cakez for the E-1 thing felt real and he keeps making his contributions that are slightly snarky but insightful. I buy what he's doing as town motivated
Meuh slightly less confident on but nothing she's posted has felt like t was not from a genuine perspective to me, and I still lean on the miller claim as being +town.
Dunn I had more as potential scum for POE reasons and some fear he may have been buddying me, but historically I'm not great at reading him. I thought there was simply a chance he was being overlooked.
As for Cakez, I wish I had an answer for why he felt like voting me before writing this post but I still felt like the response he had to pressure was towny in terms of how he was seemingly challenging people about voting him. I am also historically not great at reading him so my confidence level is not high, but that is the best I can manage. I think if Ydrasse flips mafia he is basically always town and should be treated as an innocent child.
In post 614, catboi wrote: I guess as a pure spitball guess GL/Cakez isn't impossible, at least off the top of my head
In post 674, SirCakez wrote: catboi the reason I was/am considering voting you is because your reaction to the recent pressure on you has felt off tonally, it feels like way more concerned with the votes then I feel like you'd normally respond as town. I mean just look at the last two pages - I feel like that claim was really dramatic and unprompted and it doesn't feel organic.
In post 681, SirCakez wrote:EBWOP - had one quote twiceIn post 679, SirCakez wrote:In post 533, catboi wrote: As for me "not actively trying to sort you" - you weren't here, dude. What are you expecting me to do when you're not posting in the game? Why do you think I didn't just vote you? I mean, probably because I'm still trying to sort you?like these are just gut feels really but this kinda felt like scum indignance at being pushed for something he thinks is NAIIn post 539, catboi wrote: Now, GL gets a pass for this because he doesn't know my scumgame and is making the common fallacy that me lacking energy is a scumtell. But you - you've seen my scumgame. Do you think I, at any time as scum, come across as dispassionate? As lacking the will to put conviction behind a push?here's another example, this is one of those vibes where i can't really describe it that well, but like stuff like "you're free to choose not to believe me if you want" feels like such a weird thing to say from a catboi town PoV where he has indicated some suspicion of GL alreadyIn post 546, catboi wrote: Not primarily real time, more of a "wait and see" player. You were absent for a day and the most relevant stuff was seeing how you would respond to luke and what you'd do after that. I certainly don't feel like me voting you would have helped anything and I had nothing in particular I wanted to ask you.
I dunno, you're free to choose to not believe me if you want. I'm not that worried because I don't think I'll actually go over today. If you actually want to figure out if my read is genuine, ask me questions about it?
In post 680, SirCakez wrote: but this is tough because I don't think catboi/GL make any sense as scum together and I also find things independently scummy from GL
In post 683, SirCakez wrote:its tough because i find them independently scummy but them not being SvS means even if I'm right there's still another scum out there and I just keep going through the playerlist and being like who tf is scum this gameIn post 682, Bell wrote:How is that tough? Just kill the one you suspect more of being scum individually.In post 680, SirCakez wrote: but this is tough because I don't think catboi/GL make any sense as scum together and I also find things independently scummy from GL
we have:
pooky and meuh the miller claims
luke who claimed pr
ydra who im really stuck with and keep going back and forth on
dunn who I think is playing like town here
and then you and honestly I don't know what to think about you this game Bell but I wouldn't vote you today
In post 750, catboi wrote:this is very par for the courseIn post 674, SirCakez wrote: catboi the reason I was/am considering voting you is because your reaction to the recent pressure on you has felt off tonally, it feels like way more concerned with the votes then I feel like you'd normally respond as town. I mean just look at the last two pages - I feel like that claim was really dramatic and unprompted and it doesn't feel organic.
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In post 815, RH9 wrote: Preliminary reads based off what I've read so far:
Meuh — Probably town for claim; I don't think she would fakeclaim something like that
Pooky — Probably also town for claim
Dunn — I like their analysis, so maybe town
Luke — Null; I thought his predecessor was nullish and I haven't really caught up to when he starts posting
Bell — Null; Seems pretty chill, not sure what to make of it as I tend to associate town!Bell with being somewhat aggressive
GL — I've liked his early posts, so maybe nulltown?
Ydra — I feel like from her interactions with Cakez, they feel unaligned
Cakez — I tend to SR him because he usually feels scummy to me; I'm going to try to avoid confbiasing myself this time
In post 839, RH9 wrote:Well, I guessIn post 829, SirCakez wrote: Does GL/Ydra make sense?? Is that a thing?ifBell is town, that could be possible. And unless I've just been bamboozled and you/Ydra actually is a possible team, then it's likely either you/GL or Ydra/GL.
However, I had liked GL's early game, so I'm still uncertain rn between him and Bell. (I've felt that Bell has been appearing progressively towny in their ISO.)
In post 840, RH9 wrote: Unhelpfully, I think I just tend to lean into TRing GL's posting style, so I probably won't vote for him today.
I'll reaccess Cakez/Ydra, just in case.
In post 841, RH9 wrote:As in Cakez/Ydra as a team, in case my preliminary read on them being unaligned was wrong.In post 840, RH9 wrote: Unhelpfully, I think I just tend to lean into TRing GL's posting style, so I probably won't vote for him today.
I'll reaccess Cakez/Ydra, just in case.
In post 842, RH9 wrote: TBH, what Luke said about Cakez being opportunistic was similar to something I had contemplated last night.
I'm just unsure if it's because he was trying to look out for an easy mislim or he genuinely SRed catboi and was willing to compromise on a non-GL wagon.
In post 843, RH9 wrote: The thing is though, Cakez didn't really seem to express an SR on catboi until a wagon was becoming viable.
In post 844, RH9 wrote: Maybe, I'm overthinking this but I would probably go for Cakez over Ydra rn.
In post 849, SirCakez wrote:well obviously because catboi didn't become scummy until a wagon formed on himIn post 843, RH9 wrote: The thing is though, Cakez didn't really seem to express an SR on catboi until a wagon was becoming viable.
In post 853, RH9 wrote:I thought you were on E-2?In post 852, SirCakez wrote: actually no Bell is on me ofc lol so E-1
Bell's voting Ydra, I'm pretty sure.
In post 854, RH9 wrote: Though, Ydra was interested in voting you.
In post 856, SirCakez wrote:oh, i didn't see the shiftIn post 853, RH9 wrote:I thought you were on E-2?In post 852, SirCakez wrote: actually no Bell is on me ofc lol so E-1
Bell's voting Ydra, I'm pretty sure.yeah this is the dilemma catboi ended up in where he only had two votes I think but enough people were like "i'd vote him" that he felt a lot more pressure than that. or so he claimed at least.In post 854, RH9 wrote: Though, Ydra was interested in voting you.
In post 857, RH9 wrote:I guess this is true.In post 856, SirCakez wrote: yeah this is the dilemma catboi ended up in where he only had two votes I think but enough people were like "i'd vote him" that he felt a lot more pressure than that. or so he claimed at least.
In post 935, RH9 wrote:That's the thing that's making me question if scum!you would rather choose to go for GL, who's unlikely to get limmed over putting Cakez on E-1 to save yourself.In post 929, Ydrasse wrote: sircakez and i being the two main wagons both on gl is very funny
In post 985, SirCakez wrote: VOTE: meuh
I don't think there are two millers this game. Stuff isn't adding up.
In post 1015, RH9 wrote:Basically what Meuh has said.In post 1013, SirCakez wrote: Why do people object to my Meuh vote
Especially when you seemed perfectly fine with Meuh until today.
Like what happened to your read on GL?
In post 1050, RH9 wrote: BTW, what do you make of Cakez's claim that he's a PR?
In post 1056, RH9 wrote: TBH after Dunn claims, we should get Cakez to claim what PR he exactly is.
In post 1093, RH9 wrote: Cakez, do you still think Meuh is scum?
In post 1095, RH9 wrote:Cakez (I think?) was asking for plausible scum roles that would target Doc.In post 1094, Dunnstral wrote: I'm in co-op Baldur's gate, hence my terseness
I thought it strange that RH9 went straight to Beholder before I could claim my role
Beholder was one of them.
In post 1108, SirCakez wrote: I find it really hard to believe that RH9 was reaction testing
In post 1112, SirCakez wrote: idk something about RH9 being SO honest about his VT slip almost makes me think it actually was town?? Like this is some shit I'd pull after forgetting half my role or something and slipping. I just don't even know what to make of this.
In post 1136, RH9 wrote:At the beginning of this day, I thought it was Cakez but with his claim, I'm starting to get why he went after Meuh.In post 1114, GuiltyLion wrote: RH9 who do you think is scum?
Because, honestly now it does feel a bit weird that there's no Cop but two Miller claims.
Feels like something doesn't add up. As it means assuming all claims are truthful, there's 4 VTs, 2 Named Townies (in that the Millers effectively serve as this without a Cop), a 2-shot Tracker, a 1-shot Doc and a 1-shot Roleblocker.
I'm thinking I need to re-evaluate the Miller claims rn.
Because those no longer feel as towny as they did before Cakez claimed. (Assuming Cakez is telling the truth.)
That said, I should probably UNVOTE: Cakez while I think about things.
In post 1137, RH9 wrote: So really, I think scum are in Pooky/Meuh/Cakez.
In post 1150, SirCakez wrote: Dunn I agree the three of us are town. That means probably one scum in the two VT claims and one in the millers. I currently think Meuh and going back and forth on RH9 and GL.
In post 1160, RH9 wrote:As in after the massclaim?In post 1155, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: also his approach is not as townie as the other two
Because, you could be right on this.
The way Cakez has interacted with claims does feel townier than Dunn's.
(Though, I could biased in that I feel like if all PR claims are town, that means Mafia's basically hoping Luke wastes his last track on the PR claims. And that'd have to mean scum are doing pretty well at not getting any attention.)
In post 1170, RH9 wrote:This is a good point.In post 1164, GuiltyLion wrote: I agree Luke's claim has to be town at this point because there's not enough town power otherwise
I'm thinking either
1) Cakez just trueclaimed his role as a scum RB
or
2) Dunn is some kind of scum investigative that targeted Luke
what's extra wonk is that neither Cakez nor Dunn see any issue with eachother's claims
I think at least to Dunn's credit he is just coming off kind of obtuse whereas Cakez pivoted from "scum in the PRs" to just immediately accepting Dunn's claim - feels like he may be strategically positioning and not wanting to make an enemy out of Dunn
Dunn has been consistently been saying 'PRs are Town' (for reasons which I still don't agree with) but Cakez has only really been 'scum in RH9/GL' but he went from 'scum in Meuh/Dunn/Luke' to 'scum prob just Meuh' (given he seems to be TRing Pooky).
Eh. Maybe this really is a scum!Cakez world, after all.
Though, if Cakez is scum, then I'm stuck on who's his partner other than maybe the Miller claims.
In post 1176, RH9 wrote: I think rn I'm at one of Cakez/GL is scum along with one of the Millers.
P-edit: Maybe it could be GL/Dunn.
In post 1199, SirCakez wrote: I think we should eliminate in the Miller or VT claims today
In post 1221, SirCakez wrote: If both scum are in the PR/Miller claims then that would make both GL and RH9 town and I find that very hard to believe lol
In post 1243, RH9 wrote:Because there's still wagons on you/Dunn?In post 1214, SirCakez wrote:what do you mean you guess? the alternative is you lolIn post 1211, RH9 wrote:I guess this is OK with me.In post 1207, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: I kind of think we just yeet GuiltyLion here I believe in all my PRs
And chances are it's going to be between me/you/GL.
In post 1248, RH9 wrote:Well. I felt like you could be scum, due to the fact that Cakez barely makes sense as scum with half of everybody but like you and Pooky.In post 1225, Dunnstral wrote:I can't tell if you are calling me town here, but if you are I feel like you were speculating that I may have been mafia earlierIn post 1210, RH9 wrote:I think you trueclaimed.In post 1206, Dunnstral wrote: If you think that then it's weird that you are suspecting me after I got tracked to Lukewarm
Your play makes only real sense if you really were 1-shot.
And Pooky hasn't felt like scum to me, so reasonably this limits scum to you/GL/Cakez/Meuh.
However, I have been thinking that Cakez can actually be Town and I've been mindmelding with Meuh, leaving the scumpool to you/GL.
On the other hand, your play if town, makes more sense coming from a world where you trueclaimed than one where you're playing elaborate mindgames like Luke has been suggesting.
In post 1275, SirCakez wrote: I'd vote any of GL/RH9/Meuh
In post 1276, RH9 wrote:My read on Cakez changed.In post 1261, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: RH9 buddy can you let me know how you got from
toIn post 1137, RH9 wrote: So really, I think scum are in Pooky/Meuh/Cakez.
In post 1211, RH9 wrote:I guess this is OK with me.In post 1207, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: I kind of think we just yeet GuiltyLion here I believe in all my PRs
And GL moved back into my PoE, as I realised I had no reason to leave him out of it.
In post 1292, SirCakez wrote: Yeah I'm down to yeet RH9 slot. I think I'm still voting there too?
In post 1330, SirCakez wrote: VOTE: meuh whatever i feel like this is the best shot of hitting scum rn
GL vs RH9 feels like a coinflip
Pooky has read very town to me for pretty much the whole game
And then I've already talked about why I think Luke and Dunn are town
My main takeaway from looking at these interactions is Cakez being town tbh, more than any takeaway about being paired with RH9
This is possibly paired I guess? I think RH9's treatment of Ydra/Cakez looks kind of unpaired with Cakez though. The interactions there don't fit it and RH9's positioning makes more sense as scum not caring about who gets limmed than scum paired with Cakez, I'd say. There's also little bits here and there that look unpaired (RH9 being unsure if it was Cakez or someone else who asked him something, Catboi replying to Cakez with a bunch of game links) that add up in my eyes.