Cheese Thief | Game 1 Over

[DragonEater70]

/in
Preference against fall mouse

[DragonEater70]

So, this is my first time playing this, so I don't actually know what is the optimal strategy, but I think there are certain things to keep in mind:

1. There's only one day phase, so we're probably going to all have to claim everything before the end of the day.
   
2. The Cheese Thief is probably going to claim falsely, in order to hide their identity. And the follower is probably also going to fake claim in order to cover for the Cheese thief.
   
3. Therefore, if we can force the cheese thief to claim the true hour which they woke up, we'll have somewhat of an easier time (compared to if we let them claim whatever they want).

So the strategy I suggest, is:

1. Don't claim info yet. Start by a popcorn massclaim of hours.
   
2. if you saw the cheese thief, just claim that you saw them and at what time.
   
3. if you woke up alone, claim the real time you woke up. Don't CC others who claim your time, just claim time when it's your turn.
   
4. if you woke up with another person who isn't the cheese thief (or with 2 other people), one of you should claim the real time you woke up, and the others should claim fake times that have not yet been taken by others. Ex: If A, B and D all woke up at 1 AM, and C woke up at 2 AM, so the claim could go like this:
   A: I woke up at 1 AM. B: I woke up at 2 AM. C: I woke up at 2 AM. D: I woke up at 4 AM.
   Or, like this:
   A: I woke up at 3 AM. B: I woke up at 1 AM. C: I woke up at 2 AM. D: I woke up at 5 AM.

Since the Cheese thief would not be able to tell who's lying EXCEPT if the person lying is claiming the time the cheese thief woke up, the cheese thief will have much fewer possibilites for fake claiming, if any possibility at all (since they can't risk claiming a time where someone else woke up and 1v1ing this other person.)
[/quote]

[DragonEater70]

tying probably isnt a good idea since the follower can break the tie before voting for day end

Good thinking because I was planning to suggest tying between the cheese thief and the suspected follower.

[DragonEater70]

Does day not end if we have a majority vote on somebody? That seems weird to me.

@DragonEater
I don't think lying about wake up time is as likely as you think it is, since if cheese thief or follower lie about their wake up time & somebody checked their die that just forces them into an unneccesary 1v1.

Let me explain why the Cheese Thief is likely to fake claim:
Let's say theoretically that the cheese thief woke up at 1 AM, one player woke at 2, one player woke at 3, two players woke at 4, and one woke at 5.
They all claim the time truthfully, then there's guaranteed to be a 1v1 between cheese thief and the person who woke at 2.
If TWO people wake at 2 instead (and Cheese Thief truthfully claims being the only one to wake up at 1), then Cheese Thief is caught and it's game over for them immediately.
So the Cheese Thief cannot truthfully claim UNLESS they have a partner who's lying for them, or if they are feeling really lucky.

[DragonEater70]

I would like to wait for everyone to check in before we start massclaim, but currently I feel NDMath should be the first to claim - though I can only elaborate on that after massclaim.

[DragonEater70]

I woke up at 3 AM

Skygazer

can go next

[DragonEater70]

Wait so is one of you two fakeclaiming 6 AM?

Thoughts I had from people's posting before massclaim:

Spoiler:

I think Silverclaw is

Sleepyhead

(Town)
Mallow and Snivy are probably not

Cheese

Thief

but can't rule out

Follower

Math is probably

Cheese

Thief

or woke up at 1 AM - will explain this next post

(you don't actually have to read, I'm just posting this for fun)

[DragonEater70]

Huh?

Why are you so sure I'm cheese thief again?

[DragonEater70]

Unless you are admitting you fake claimed?

[DragonEater70]

I kinda typed this whole post casing Math and then decided to not post it until I see how people react to previous stuff, and I think Math's reaction is really weird here.

But I just tried to look at it from his POV and it kinda makes sense?

Hmm

Let me think about it before I post my full thoughts.

[DragonEater70]

Math 2 quick questions:
1. Why did you call me a follower before massclaim?
2. Do you realize there's a follower so I don't have to be a cheese thief, since both of the other pairs according to your POV could be thief + follower?

pedit: I will snivy, dw

and yeah, SG (sorry if you hate this) ain't confirmed

[DragonEater70]

Not yet

I wanna hear Math's answers

[DragonEater70]

huh I was typing them up as this discourse happened

[DragonEater70]

This is my "Full Thoughts" post. I will include the entire case I made on Math in the spoiler below, then I can delve into what I currently think.

Spoiler: case I was alluding to in post #38

I think Math is the Cheese Thief.
It's a bit hard to precisely articulate my thought process, because this is a bit based on gut and a bit based on logic of the type that makes better sense in my head than when I say it (even though it ends up reaching the correct conclusion), but I'll try anyway.
So, I saw this post and it felt off to me:

I don't think lying about wake up time is as likely as you think it is, since if cheese thief or follower lie about their wake up time & somebody checked their die that just forces them into an unneccesary 1v1. However I do think the strategy is a good idea.

Why is this off? Well, maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it's not like we're gonna have flips this game so I kinda have to. And looking at this post, I feel this is a TMI/Anti-TMI/Not-Trying-To-Solve Slip. Let me explain what this means.
Basically, in this game, unlike in Mafia, the Sleepyheads all have a piece of information (or actually 2), that would make it pretty obvious to them why the Cheese Thief should fake claim time (as otherwise, it would be extremely easy to spot the Cheese Thief). This information is (a) what time you woke up, and (b) what was the state of the cheese. and with this information, if everyone trueclaims time, it is possible to more or less pinpoint cheese thief.*
But there are two roles in the game which wouldn't realize what this information means, or that it is actually usable information: someone who woke up at 1 AM by themself, and a Cheese Thief (hope it's clear why).
And Math's mindset points to being either, with the claim ruling out waking up at 1 AM by themself (they could only wake up at 1 AM with Mallow, or wake up at 2 AM). So it sounds like he's just a thief.


*Hypothetically, let's say that only the cheese thief woke at 1 AM, and 1 player woke at 2 AM - it immediately becomes a 1v1 after claim, which is not good for cheese thief. So it shouldn't trueclaim normally.
However while writing this I realized that this 1v1 is not a guaranteed win for the Sleepyheads, since as Snivy pointed out the follower could probably break ties.

First, Snivy is very observant as he correctly deduced that he and I woke up at the same time! Just kidding (or am i?). But yeah, I did wake up with somebody else (Mallow, as I don't see a point hiding it now).

Furthermore, I kinda TR Skygazer's thinking that they are confirmed town despite not being confirmed. I will say though that they aren't even confirmed not Cheese Thief, because they can be the Thief with Silverclaw as the Follower. But since I TR both of them (independently of each other), I think it's an unlikely scenario (but not impossible).

So that leaves Mallow, Snivy, and Math.
Mallow is, by claim which no one CC'd yet, clear of being Cheese Thief. They could still be a follower.

Could Snivy be Math's follower? Maybe - I didn't actually think of this possibility. It's an interesting one.
Could Math be Snivy's follower? Probably not. I find it highly unlikely that the follower just popcorns the CT and forces them to fakeclaim early when they might get CC'd.
Could Mallow be Math's follower? Yes, and that's my current solve. Mallow's posting feels like follower posting, and Math's posting feels like CT posting. If I'm right, I expect Mallow to start shading me after this post and to (falsely) claim that Math is confirmed not CT to them.
Okay so what about Snivy as Math's follower again? Ugh, I guess it's possible. I don't really have a good argument for or against it. If you guys have an argument either way, I will be happy to hear it.

Edit: I guess the last 2 posts by Mallow and Snivy actually confused me a bit on which one of them could be the follower.
Oh, I forgot Mallow could be Snivy's follower. Hmmmmmmm, I'll get back to you about that.

[DragonEater70]

TLDR:
VOTE: Math

[DragonEater70]

About?

[DragonEater70]

btw @Skygazer I love your ever changing signature since you became Replacement Listmod.

[DragonEater70]

btw @Skygazer I love your ever changing signature since you became Replacement Listmod.

updated it again just for you

Wow. Appreciated!

[DragonEater70]

the 1am time

Read my claim again.

[DragonEater70]

i am staring as hard as i can just tell me

the 1am time

Read my claim again.

just tell me what time you woke up at its not that hard

Just read this post it's not that hard:

I woke up at 3 AM

Skygazer

can go next

[DragonEater70]

whatever i woke alone and tracked mallow to 3 am im done

huh

Why did you wait for me to claim before saying that?

But anyway from your POV Math is confirmed Cheese Thief unless SilverSky is actually best scum team that ever scummed in the Mish Mash forums.

[DragonEater70]

Also do you like my new avatar?

[DragonEater70]

(mechanically you want people you know the times of to claim later, so you acting like you had a peak on me and then asking me to claim first set off alarms there).

I admit that I fucked up there, I actually realized I should've asked you to claim last but it was too late.

[DragonEater70]

I admit that I fucked up there, I actually realized I should've asked you to claim last but it was too late.

@Math basically this is my first time playing this and I am more or less figuring out the strategy as I go along. So yeah you are 100% correct that people you know when they woke up should claim later, that's also part of my suspicion of Mallo popcorning me.

[DragonEater70]

I kinda think Math has the right idea here.

Which would make the solve Thief!Snivy + Follower!Mallow

VOTE: Snivy

[DragonEater70]

As much as I think it would be rad if Snivy and Math were theatering and Math was the thief, I felt Math's reactions to my pushes were too organic so I don't think that's the case.

pedit: LOL Snivy's omgus is very telling.

[DragonEater70]

K I think I should head to bed now, good night and please don't steal the cheese again.

[DragonEater70]

Actually this is wrong

If Skygazer were the Cheese thief with only their follower unclaimed, it would make perfect sense for them to choose an unoccupied slot, knowing that the follower would back them up. That's the same logic behind thief!snivy claiming 4 AM and popping mallow.

However the fact that you peeked at Silver beforehand does make it unlikelier.

Anyway it's good we have eliminated both mallow and Silverclaw as Cheese Thiefs completely, so we're never voting any of them. I am obviously not voting myself and Mallow can vouch for me not being Thief (though mallow could be lying for me).

So it's skygazer, snivy and math (FMPOV).

Skygazer I earlier dismissed as townie but I'll admit calling themself a cleared sleepyhead while being cheese thief is definitely not beyond their capabilities (I think).
Snivy I think it makes perfect sense to be the thief.
Math I thought made perfect sense to be the thief, but his reactions felt like they came from a place of genuinely believing what he said.

Also I am 99% sure Math and Snivy are not ever aligned, based on interactions.

[DragonEater70]

I also don't love it.

Do you think him bringing up you and Skygazer as a possible team is Sleepy or Thiefy?

[DragonEater70]

Sorry I didn't see post 100, this was in response to 99.

[DragonEater70]

Also I just realized I've been referring to both mallow and Math as "he" without any evidence that this is the correct pronoun for either of them, so sorry about that.

What's your pronouns?

[DragonEater70]

i say, if we end up doing my plan, DE and mallow can vote me, skygazer and silverclaw can vote ndmath, then we just have to guess who isn't
the follower, and i don't think mallow is the follower tbh, so mallow can vote to end day last

lol I was having doubts on you being Cheese Thief but mallow is literally my number 1 candidate for follower out of everyone regardless of who's the Cheese Thief.

Silverclaw should vote last.

[DragonEater70]

Why? I think you are the thief.

[DragonEater70]

well it doesn't matter who thinks who its just that i think you're the follower so you cant pivot over onto me from nd

what

how did you reach this conclusion when I was the main person pushng the one you are now pushing?

[DragonEater70]

Okay something isn't adding up here.
Maybe I just have a soft spot for Snivy, but I'm having a hard time Thief-reading him when he's proposing a breaking strategy that would help us defeat him if he's indeed the Cheese Thief. I probably do have a soft spot for him but nvm about that.
Also, my initial Thief-read on Math broke down after I realized that everything Math says makes sense from their perspective, and even though I disagree with their conclusions, the are not Thief-indicative as much as they are playstyle-indicative. I mean, there's a guy I played mafia with who would constantly lose 1v1's as town simply because his tone was panicky, even though he was town. So for Math, the fact they sounded panicky earlier is not necessarily scum indicative but again more playstyle/personality indicative.
Another part of my thief-read on Math was lack of solving, but they've demonstrated excellent solving in the past few pages.

So, "what the heck is going on?", you may be asking. "Is DE70 townreading both Thief candidates? Is he saying there's no thief?"

Well, not exactly. You understand, I already mentioned this but was ignored. So I hate to break it to you guys, but Skygazer is NOT confirmed to be not the Cheese Thief (and neither am I).

Theoretically, Skygazer could've stolen the cheese at 1 AM, then picked Silverclaw as follower (Silverclaw really did wake up at 6 AM), and then Skygazer fluked and claimed the same time that Silverclaw woke up.

Actually, I just realized that this explains why Silverclaw truclaimed. Because he did wake up by himself, and per the plan people who woke up alone should trueclaim (but he was supposed to fake claim). Only later did he realize he needs to provide cover for Skygazer, so claimed he had somehow forgotten it.

[DragonEater70]

how did you reach this conclusion when I was the main person pushng the one you are now pushing?

simple

the follower is the loudest so they can divert the attention off of the thief

Are you kidding me?
First, I'm always loud:
app.php/activity_overview/91344?sort_ty ... rt_order=d
app.php/activity_overview/90539?sort_ty ... rt_order=d
app.php/activity_overview/90611?sort_ty ... rt_order=d (This is the first Weird Dreams Mafia, in which I was town)
Second, the "noise" that I've been making is called solving. If I wanted to draw attention off the Thief I would deliberately lie and make myself confirmed thief.

[DragonEater70]

oh, I could totally see why you think that furthers your theory of me being Math's follower. It makes perfect sense fypov

Let's see what Math and mallow say.

[DragonEater70]

its the same thing where we just have to decide who isn't a follower but whoever votes who doesn't really matter because the follower can pivot from a non-thief

For this to happen you'd have to put faith in me because I'm supposedly Math's follower, mallow is supposedly yours, and Silver is supposedly Sky's, and I'm not letting either of mallow or Silver vote last. And if I'm being 100% honest I'd rather just solve it based on dayplay, and based on Dayplay I think it's Skygazer. She was just sitting on her laurels, knowing she's "confirmed", and didn't try to solve at all. Also when I asked Silver if he thinks you are thief or not, I really didn't like his answer.

[DragonEater70]

I was actually thinking that 151 is the case and was planning to ask the mod about that.

While it's true that we can do that and it would be an auto-win, I rather lose playing a fair game than win by "cheating". Like I feel if we did that strategy then we basically admit that we can't even find two cheese thief candidates out of six people.

You can scumread me for this all you want, I don't really care.

I think a tie vote between

Star

Sky and Snivy wins the game.

[DragonEater70]

DE70 must be scum then lol. Trying to still push me after I advocated for an absolutely gamebreaking strat is also kinda damning.

I literally said that I don't want to gamebreak because it will feel lame

if you all are so tryhard so as to go for the gamebreak start, go for it. I will vote accordingly.

[DragonEater70]

No but at this stage all my suspects advocated for autoloss so I'm kinda out of suspects.

[DragonEater70]

Feel free to propose it lmao, but if I wanted to break a game over my knees I'd be building more Pathfinder characters right now

That made me genuinely laugh, thanks.


Sky, I get your frustration. I think it's probably not you, but I know it's not me, mallow or Silverclaw and I also don't think it's Math. So I'm proposing you as a "safe" bet.
If it's so annoying to you I can propose math/snivy instead.

[DragonEater70]

Sky, the only thing making me suspicious of you is the fact that you are begging us to ignore the 1 / 54 chance you are the thief.

I literally wouldn't pay attention to it but when you insist that we ignore it, it's kinda suspicious ngl.

[DragonEater70]

Link pls

[DragonEater70]

Cheating.

[DragonEater70]

Subject: large normal 243: lindOVER

and i conflated inflated with conflated

Amazing quote ngl

[DragonEater70]

mallow do you have opinions of your own?

[DragonEater70]

if we want fun and suspense we could go for one person

honestly going between ND and cCS seems like an easy win tho

My preference would be to have each person just vote whomever they think is maf, and most probably either 1 or 2 people will be voted but I won't be upset if 3 people will be voted as long as it's not motivated by an attempt to gamebreak but simply because opinions are split.

[DragonEater70]

Okay you know what, screw this

I think my original gut vibe was probably correct

It's probably math+mallow as sidekick

VOTE: Math

[DragonEater70]

Gut vibe = gut read

[DragonEater70]

But it's not even a gut read

It was a very well thought out read

Whatever

[DragonEater70]

I clearly can't type

[DragonEater70]

same

Is it just because neither of them seem too interested in responding?

partly

[DragonEater70]

yeah mallow is confirmed not CT but could be follower

[DragonEater70]

UNVOTE:

[DragonEater70]

Silverclaw have you ever played mafia on this site or only mish mash?

[DragonEater70]

Why aren't you considering Snivy a possibility?

[DragonEater70]

I agree

I wish I had meta on Silverclaw because his posts are kinda sleepy but could also come from follower and meta would help me figure out which one it is.

Ugh sure let's just vote Snivy then.

VOTE: Snivy.

[DragonEater70]

i know its statistically more likely that nd is thief but damn de didnt even mention how mallow could STILL be a follower but not just to me.

I mentioned it a bunch of times I think?

[DragonEater70]

That's because mallow mentioned Math but decided to not even think about mentioning you

yeah

[DragonEater70]

ok can i at least tie it against de so i know he isnt pulling something here

That's throwing if you are a sleepyhead.

[DragonEater70]

Sleepy!You should vote Math

[DragonEater70]

i meant math too lmao

wdym?

[DragonEater70]

Snivy
go look at Weird Dreams Mafia Redux and then go look at Normal Idea Mafia and tell me which alignment I am.

[DragonEater70]

mallow could be maths follower

Yeah I believe that was my initial theory.

[DragonEater70]

Could Mallow be Math's follower? Yes, and that's my current solve.

very early post

[DragonEater70]

i die anyway what is the problem with it?

If you are a sleepyhead you don't care about being voted (btw this game doesn't have death), you only care about revealing cheese thief, which from your pov would be math.

[DragonEater70]

i want to kill you based off your strategy not based off your reads lol

Then you are being childish

You vote me because I am "not playing to wincon", but voting me based off that is even more not playing to wincon.

[DragonEater70]

Ugh

I hate this game

Why does everyone have to propose unfun autowin strats

[DragonEater70]

and then shade me when I try to have fun

[DragonEater70]

Because the most likely answer has you cheese thief, I don't think this is altruistic vote sharing

Me???

[DragonEater70]

Okay
listen
I don't think catching the thief through mechanical deduction and uncovering lies is unfun. I think it's fine because that's what you are supposed to do this game. This is not a game of Mafia.
In a game of Mafia I would feel cheated out of a game if someone managed to mechanically solve the game Day 1, with no reads needed.
But this is not a game of Mafia.
I will however feel cheated out of a game if this game concludes by an automatic win tying 6 people or something, because it means we didn't do what we were supposed to do - solve the puzzle.

We currently DO NOT have a way to autowin if we keep to the spirit of the rules, because there's no way to confirm one or even two people as the only possible cheese thief candidate(s).

I think Silverclaw is towny enough for me to trust Skygazer, so from my POV that leaves Math and Snivy. I also think Math had a pretty towny response to the push on him, while with you it feels a bit like you are squirming under the pressure.

I think objectively I've been pretty uncheese thief - you even mentioned that I was drawing attention like a follower would, so unless you think it's WIFOM or something I don't understand why you'd call me thief. So objectively you should be voting math unless you disagree with the read on Silverclaw AND you think Math is really towny (which I really don't think you think).

So yeah.

[DragonEater70]

Um sure.

[DragonEater70]

we still can but it'll have to happen naturally.

[DragonEater70]

I want mallow to answer though

they barely expressed any opinion all game long

[DragonEater70]

Yeah snivy it's not me

Can I ask you a genuine question?

Is it in your scumrange to propose autoloss hoping it will be rejected and/or somehow manipulate out of it?

[DragonEater70]

Believable

Then I shall vote math.

[DragonEater70]

end day please

[DragonEater70]

That is definitely something I can relate to

[DragonEater70]

Okay so

These last 2 posts make me think that Math is Cheese Thief and mallow is his follower, and mallow made that last post to "prove" they are my follower (even though they aren't).

[DragonEater70]

I mean that's because Skygazer's really come into their own as of late and hasn't done anything thieflike lately?

Sorry I don't get the tone of this post, can you explain it to me?

[DragonEater70]

I think it's just Math, would be wild if mallow was Snivy's follower though (or if MATH was Snivy's follower, but then I'd have to nominate them for mashies tbh because that would be genius level scumplay).

[DragonEater70]

Okay I didn't throw

My initial read of Math was actually perfect.

[DragonEater70]

I literally KNEW Math woke up at 1 AM based on his response to my strategy.

[DragonEater70]

mizzy was a good mod anyway, i was skeptical about the voting system but glad it was a fair game in the end!

Yeah, thanks Mizzy for being a good mod!
And thanks for modding in general, too.

[DragonEater70]

Mizzy your modding was great! I hope stuff gets better soon

Absolutely agreed

[DragonEater70]

Btw Snivy for future refrence - mechanical analysis and strategizing like I did this game is absolutely town indicative for me. I can't fake it as scum for the life of me, it's just too hard.

I'm saying this because I thought you should have had an easy TR on me but for some reason you were paranoid of me during the middle of the game.

[DragonEater70]

I literally KNEW Math woke up at 1 AM based on his response to my strategy.

It turned out I should've just truthful claimed but I was very fearful that you woke up at 2am with a peak on me with the way you were phrasing stuff / had the list pointed at 1am
so then the best counterplay I could think of was to claim to have woken up at 2am with you

Lol that makes sense. I WAS trying to trap you, jsyk.