Open 887: Coalition of Frogs (Game Over)

[Hero at Heart]

and aside from that?

[Save The Dragons]

i dunno. i was wrong about someone and i think implosion looks like the most likely candidate

[Hero at Heart]

welp

i can see where you are coming from maybe, but why not ari then?

[Merlyn]

I guess my question would be (in the nicest way possible, bc I do like you as a player), does this matter to the game?

it depends. if someone can show me a scum!std motivation for voting implo over me, it would make std more likely scum. if there's a town!std motivation voting implo over me, then std might be town.
but in general, i think it helps to try and figure out what you /don't/ understand about the game. if you understand everything, then the game is basically solved, right? so if it's not solved then there must be something you don't understand. so the fact that there's something you don't understand could point to the fact that you are not on the right track (or you could be on the right track, but you'd only understand it after figuring the thing out).

for example, in a recently completed game, there was a leading wagon which had very good reasons to be scum. however, i didn't understand why they kept tunneling an obvtown player - this just didn't make sense to me as a scum action. and when i thought of this i concluded that the must be just very frustrated town (which they were). not that it mattered in the end because they got hammered anyway :p

also, i'll take that as a compliment

My answer to this fwiw is that I think that either of you are the easy targets you're thinking of.

i'm not sure what you mean? are you saying implo is as easy a misfade target as myself?

I butchered what I was trying to say there. I meant that I don't think either of you are the easy targets. You were really confident and a driver of that coalition, you'd have to be really bold scum to do that. Ive pondered whether you are in fact, but I'm pretty much accepting at this point that you're town. I think it would be hard to get a wagon on you. And Ari said she's been pushed into coalitions and then mislimed before, I think that makes her a less obvious push than you're thinking.

[Merlyn]

i dunno. i was wrong about someone and i think implosion looks like the most likely candidate

What makes them the most likely vs others?

[Hero at Heart]

I butchered what I was trying to say there. I meant that I don't think either of you are the easy targets. You were really confident and a driver of that coalition, you'd have to be really bold scum to do that. Ive pondered whether you are in fact, but I'm pretty much accepting at this point that you're town. I think it would be hard to get a wagon on you. And Ari said she's been pushed into coalitions and then mislimed before, I think that makes her a less obvious push than you're thinking.

ohhh okay

i guess that makes sense

[TheHoldSteady]

UNVOTE: Hero at Heart

[Aristeia]

ari, why?

because it feels like there's too many people twiddling their thumbs on the sidelines and their votes are on irrelevant people[THS,Bella] and that's sometimes a sign that scum are fine with the current choices/dichotomy in the game and kind of just hoping someone gets offed.

and I reread some of datisi's early posting and didn't feel great about thinking he's mafia.

STD is still bleh but I don't feel great about just mailing it in

[Aristeia]

i dunno. i was wrong about someone and i think implosion looks like the most likely candidate

why is implosion the most likely candidate?

[TheHoldSteady]

I think you all are skilled / experienced enough to make posts that read town so I'm trying to take a close look at intentionality here

Merlyn & Drew weren't at all drivers of the coalition and aren't really on my radar


Implosion wasn't quite a driver, but then again he didn't really need to be. But i do really read 519 as town, there's no reason to need to do that as scum, and I actually had the same thoughts about who I wanted replaced on the coalition

Malakittens: kind of hopped on it in a subtle sort of way? Could possibly be a scum partner who wasn't on the initial coalition, but I'm starting to find an STD + RH9 team a bit tough to believe because I don't know if RH9 would bat for partner on day one like this.

Then there's Ari and HAH who were the main drivers, but did so in a blunt and less than subtle way that I'd expect from town, not scum, and seem to have very townie thought processes otherwise.


Bellaphant: Went along with the coalition on 531 in a quiet way, didn't end up voting for the coalition in the end, but we know there was some time before the hammer so I could see her being a scum that didn't actually vote

STD: I have nothing here except PoE; he was part of the coalition, he was on the coalition, his defense isn't very strong (I don't really care if it was an accident, scum can make them, town can make them, its completely NAI to me)

So I think the lim should be Bellaphant or STD today

[TheHoldSteady]

and I reread some of datisi's early posting and didn't feel great about thinking he's mafia.

I did too but tbh he's a good player who knows how to town tell, I think when you look at intentionality the case for him being town becomes a lot less strong

[Hero at Heart]

i like steady's thought process here
i know RH9/std is kinda obvious but sometimes it's the obvious answer, right? idk.
do you feel RH9 is partnered with bella?

Implosion wasn't quite a driver, but then again he didn't really need to be.

and why are you giving this a pass? isn't this the same thing bella did?

[Ausuka]

Prodding Doctor Drew.

[Hero at Heart]

@ari i read datisi's iso today or yesterday (don't actually remember) and i kinda convinced myself that all the posts he made that could be towny are actually just scum pretending to be town. do you not see it?

and i get the twiddling but both of the people who aren't voting are actually interested in an std lim. which i'm not actually sure makes him scum, idk.

[Aristeia]

i don't really understand how you went from datisi is 99% town to oh he's the bad guy now

[TheHoldSteady]

i like steady's thought process here
i know RH9/std is kinda obvious but sometimes it's the obvious answer, right? idk.
do you feel RH9 is partnered with bella?

Implosion wasn't quite a driver, but then again he didn't really need to be.

and why are you giving this a pass? isn't this the same thing bella did?

It doesn't give him a pass. If you're already on the coalition as scum, there's no need to hurry it through. Biding your time is a viable strategy as long as you continue to towntell.

But the difference between Implosion and Bellaphant that I'm seeing is that Implosion continued to solve and attempt to make changes to the coalition, Bellaphant seemed to quietly resign to it

Bellaphant / RH9 is one credible possibility, in fact even if STD is town, then Scum RH9 could try and defend them here to gain town cred for later. It's something I would do as scum.

[Doctor Drew]

Prodding Doctor Drew.

Ahhh sorry.

Will read up more later tonight, but these last few posts from THS are really pinging my gut that they am imo are buddies.

See you all soon

[Bellaphant]

Why would I be prodding at rh9s defense of std of he was my scum buddy?

Also, I literally asked if we could swap Ari out just before it was hammered?

Mate, you are spinning a narrative that doesn't match the facts.

[Bellaphant]

Should we all be making a read list, or all we all locked into buddies or if ...then? I feel like it's a mistake I'm making, certainly

[Bellaphant]

I think Hero, Imp, Merlyn, is good, Bella is fien, but I don't really trust Ari, Dats, or Drew.

Right now what I'm thinking of is,

Hero at Heart
Merlyn
Implosion
Doctor Drew or Datisi
---
Bellaphant
Malakittens
Aristela

you know what? i am done. i am done with this meta discussion, i am done with discussing my tr of datisi, and i am done with this silly 1v1 with ari. it's not fun and it's not helping town win.

so here's what we're going to do instead. i am going to propose a coalition, and ari - please sheep it eliminate me if it fails. you have my solemn promise i won't push you (but i will be looking for scum). here's my coalition:
HEAL: ari, datisi, hero, implo, bella

i'd rather tell ari "i told you" in the postgame after we won than continue this stupid, unfun argument. or i guess if she's scum i can tell her "gg wp you tricked us all". but i don't think she's scum.

the above coalition is actually final*.

*barring extreme shenanigans like datisi claiming scum or some crazy, game changing scumslip.

how willing are you to replace ari with merlyn

I honestly am wondering now if Drew and Malakittens might be the solve. Take what I said about Drew in 206 and then Drew's sudden push to be in the coalition on page 12. Then you have Malakitten's inactivity making them a fairly unlikely candidate for the coalition at this juncture. Anyone who is a scum partner with Malakittens would have to be pressed hard to make sure they're in the coalition or else the game is over.

hi THS, sorry for ignoring these posts.
i've been kind of checked out from the game even though it might not look like that since i did post but i didn't actually look at anything thoroughly or try to analyze anything.

here's the way i think this is going to go:

i think hero's thought process seems very genuine and authentic and i actually got good vibes when we had that argument pages ago. i felt like i was talking to a town, not a scum.

i think the coalition is going to be wrong, and then he's going to lead a lim on me which is also going to be wrong.

what happens beyond then is out of my control

1. if i understood correctly, your sr on me was based on perceiving me as subtly trying to ride your wagon. does me not being as subtle aa you were expecting me to be change your viewpoint on me?
2. well, have you looked at the others? what did you see?

I already SAID you not being as subtle changed my viewpoint on you in 139 and I've BEEN looking at others in 188, 206, 235, 244, 245,

I do agree that numbers wise it just makes sense to put yourself forward for the coalition bc if you know you're town then you can only be wrong about 4 spots rather than 5. The only person who can really relax and not need to advocate for themselves here is a wolf who is pushing a partner in there. There's no point in being worried that it will make you a target later if the coalition fails, you're getting heat now anyway.

i have two completed games of coalition;

viewtopic.php?t=91245
viewtopic.php?t=89428

I am town in both

I suggested not being in coalition in both

I ended up in the coalition in both

I personally do not enjoy being in the coalition unless I'm absolutely certain my coalition is winning.

I am nowhere near that level of certainty at present and might never be.

Saying that I am mafia for not wanting to be in the coalition because all townies would want to be in the coalition and ascribing the only possible reason for someone not wanting to be in the coalition as "they are mafia who are pushing their partner in instead" is reductionist and absurd.

I can believe this.

so if you believe ari's self towncase (at least i think that's what you are implying), and think that your townread on me is good, why do you think exactly that the coalition i suggested will fail? like who out of the 5 people do you suspect? bella? implo? datisi? please elaborate

I'm least certain on Datisi and Ari. I'll elaborate more on that soon but I've fallen sick and don't have the mental energy right now

Started re-reading.

Ari seems better than I remembered. Asking questions I'd expect town to ask.

I don't feel very strongly about Bella being town anymore. She's played this pretty reactively.

Drew might be town because I can't think of why scum would make 168 at this point in time.

Datisi seemed town.

Merlyn I could see going either way.

HEAL: Aristella[/hurt]

HURT: Bellaphant

HURT: Merlyn

HEAL: Bellaphant

I'm not completely convinced that Bellaphant won't break this but we do need to save time for phase two, and I think this is about as good as it might get.

Can you walk me through your progression on drew, mer and me specifically? Coz what I'm seeing doesn't make a ton of sense (your read on me is the one I'm least worried about, tbf)

[RH9]

It's hard to come in and post meaningfully when we are basically at an impasse. Here's what I'm currently thinking: everyone who is one either the std or implo wagon has given their reason for doing so, and recently.

THS, you have had a vote on Hero since Sept 26. That was during D1, you haven't changed it since then. Mala, you have had a vote on Ari since Sept 28th- again, a vote you placed in D1. I think that you both need to either a) make a good case for why four other folks should leave thier current wagon for yours or b) stop sitting on your votes and get on either the implo or std wagon.

(btw, yes I do find it sussy to realize how long you've both been sitting on those votes. I get that the game has been moving slowly but c'mon)

I replaced Mala like a while ago and I'm on implo?

I'm sorry! I mean Bella

No problems!

[RH9]

rh9:

do you agree that std has lied about the hammer?

do you know how in a recently completed game (i forgot which), you lied as town and then you basically admitted that you lied? well std has not admitted that he's lying. what do you make of that?

If STD is lying as town I think I can get it.
Not sure why we're voting him if that's the case though?
So I'm not sure why you're bringing this up.

[TheHoldSteady]

Oh lord I'm sorry.

I thought 529 said "I don't hate this being the coalition" not "I don't hate ths being in the coalition".

But still, Bella suggested hammering almost immediately afterwards in 532

[Bellaphant]

??

[Merlyn]

ari, why?

because it feels like there's too many people twiddling their thumbs on the sidelines and their votes are on irrelevant people[THS,Bella] and that's sometimes a sign that scum are fine with the current choices/dichotomy in the game and kind of just hoping someone gets offed.

and I reread some of datisi's early posting and didn't feel great about thinking he's mafia.

STD is still bleh but I don't feel great about just mailing it in

Your thinking is very similar to my own, but where are you ending up? If you're saying that we should be wary of the current choices, you mean std and implo I assume. So who are you wanting to vote for instead?