Open 887: Coalition of Frogs (Game Over)

[Aristeia]

i think rh9 but im willing to keep sheeping implosion

[Aristeia]

my paranoid worry is that the reason implosion wasnt nightkilled was because he is hard townreading bellaphant and she is the last mafia

[Aristeia]

im actually not that sure on rh9 at all tbh

i change my answer to bella

[Merlyn]

I gotta go back and look at Bella again. I liked her in D1 but I do remember not liking her end of coalition day actions

[implosion]

i could be convinced on Bella but it'd be sort of a hard sell. I sort of have a hard time imagining wanting to lim anyone other than RH today though. His argument that I should be seeing that he is playing differently from the game I've seen him as scum is kind of absurd (like, sure, you bussed once, okay, most players don't always bus or always not bus). I don't think I have much of a read on RH's play in isolation but the circumstantial evidence of Mala's coalition vote + RH9 not particularly feeling like town means like I said yesterday I don't really want the slot living to endgame. I feel probably less confident on him than I did on STD but mostly because of the coalition info.

[implosion]

I usually am not good at reading into nightkills in this kind of context. I guess it's simpler given that it's a mountainous setup but idk. I wasn't really expecting to die last night, I guess I would have guessed ari or hero but I didn't think about it that hard, I've kind of turned my brain off from this game overnight

[Doctor Drew]

i could be convinced on Bella but it'd be sort of a hard sell. I sort of have a hard time imagining wanting to lim anyone other than RH today though. His argument that I should be seeing that he is playing differently from the game I've seen him as scum is kind of absurd (like, sure, you bussed once, okay, most players don't always bus or always not bus). I don't think I have much of a read on RH's play in isolation but the circumstantial evidence of Mala's coalition vote + RH9 not particularly feeling like town means like I said yesterday I don't really want the slot living to endgame. I feel probably less confident on him than I did on STD but mostly because of the coalition info.

Honestly it was RHs reaction to my intent to hammer that made me feel better about said hammer.

I feel better about scumRH now then I did about scumStd yesterday.

[Aristeia]

I'm fine with yeeting RH9 - I have some reservations but I am prepared to be carried

[Doctor Drew]

I'm fine with yeeting RH9 - I have some reservations but I am prepared to be carried

I feel like it goes RH, if not them Bella, if not them Hero

You might be the spicy wrench in the plan, but we can deal with that if RH is town.

[implosion]

I softly intend to devote some effort to the game today but it will feel very bad to have devoted that effort if RH is indeed scum

[implosion]

I'm inclined to say that Hero's incredibly aggressive waffle on STD comes from scum really really rarely. It's one thing to like, distance noncommittally so that you don't have to bus if there's an alternative. But hero actively committed and uncommited like 3 separate times from wanting to lim STD. That seems like a very scary thing to do as scum partnered to STD who doesn't know the day is going to go on that long, and like, if they wanted not to bus they could have easily justified voting me over STD at any point and if they wanted to distance without really intending to bus then idk i feel like they wouldn't have like 3 separate posts where they say "okay now for realsies i'm voting std" and if they wanted to bus then they could have just bussed. It feels like what they did is a weird amalgamation of all of these that I think there are very few scum players who would consciously decide to play the day that way.

[Bellaphant]

I came in to the day feeling much more confident that Ari was town and that the pings I got early game were from dats, not ari, but ugh, I dknt like being her default sr.

The safest play is probably rh9?

Ths just strikes me as a low info kill, generally, although at that point its slightly weird it wasn't merlyn

[RH9]

i could be convinced on Bella but it'd be sort of a hard sell. I sort of have a hard time imagining wanting to lim anyone other than RH today though. His argument that I should be seeing that he is playing differently from the game I've seen him as scum is kind of absurd (like, sure, you bussed once, okay, most players don't always bus or always not bus). I don't think I have much of a read on RH's play in isolation but the circumstantial evidence of Mala's coalition vote + RH9 not particularly feeling like town means like I said yesterday I don't really want the slot living to endgame. I feel probably less confident on him than I did on STD but mostly because of the coalition info.

Honestly it was RHs reaction to my intent to hammer that made me feel better about said hammer.

I feel better about scumRH now then I did about scumStd yesterday.

First, it was not a reaction to your intent to hammer.
Second, it was not to defend STD.
Also, do you really think scum!me spends the entirety of yesterday screaming for implo's head when I could have voted STD at a safer time?

[RH9]

RH's last few posts really read like a last ditch effort to save std, especially since I said I would hammer them.

So unless anyone else has something to say, I am going to hammer std.

Like in a half hour or so.

They do in one sense. But in another sense, it seems like people who go against the grain of the bandwagon so hard turn out to be town more often than scum?

Also this.

[RH9]

Don't you all think that scum would've seen that supporting STD was a bad move?
Have you all not considered that most of you are getting confbiased and are trying to filter things to fit your worldview?
All simply because you were right D1?

[RH9]

Though, I just realised only Drew really ever thought the above.

[Merlyn]

I'm inclined to say that Hero's incredibly aggressive waffle on STD comes from scum really really rarely. It's one thing to like, distance noncommittally so that you don't have to bus if there's an alternative. But hero actively committed and uncommited like 3 separate times from wanting to lim STD. That seems like a very scary thing to do as scum partnered to STD who doesn't know the day is going to go on that long, and like, if they wanted not to bus they could have easily justified voting me over STD at any point and if they wanted to distance without really intending to bus then idk i feel like they wouldn't have like 3 separate posts where they say "okay now for realsies i'm voting std" and if they wanted to bus then they could have just bussed. It feels like what they did is a weird amalgamation of all of these that I think there are very few scum players who would consciously decide to play the day that way.

This makes a ton of sense and I agree with it. The thing that stresses me out about it is why isn't Hero dead?

[Merlyn]

RH9, so who's scum?

[RH9]

RH9, so who's scum?

I'm not sure but probably between implo and Bella.
Drew is probably confbiased town.
Hero could be town, I guess? implo's points on his D1 play is valid.
Though, I agree with you that it's weird he wasn't NKed.
And I'm unsure on you and Ari.

[Hero at Heart]

ok so first of all, i'm not voting in implo/bella/drew today. in fact i don't think i'm ever voting in these 3.

second of all, yay! i guess my reads weren't that horrible after all. i mean yes i did have a shitty townread on datisi pre-coalition (sorry ari, sorry implo), but the later scumread was good. also sorry for being a coward and not hammering when i should've.

third of all:

UNVOTE:

also am i a dum dum for only now realizing i wasn't even voting?

LOL! I thought you were doing it for emphasis- like, you felt so strongly you needed to unvote again!

do you want me to just hammer?

I want you to vote for the person you think is most likely to be scum, and if that person is different than the one with the leading wagon entering the last 24 hours I want you to try and convince me and others to switch.

ya that's funny

sorry i didn't answer that yesterday, but basically my answer would've been "probably std".


fourth of all, i realize that my hesitation on hammering std makes me look really bad. please be as kind and forgiving as ari and don't vote me, thanks.


fifth of all, i also don't think merlyn is likely to be std's partner tbh after that EOD. i wanted to say that about THS as well but frankly i can see that as bussing.

so that leaves RH9, THS and ari. I think we win by flipping RH9 > ari > THS, with RH9 being last scum 80% of the time.

sixth of all you can tell this was written during the night because i am (probably) referring to a player that has died.

seventh of all, VOTE: RH9

[Hero at Heart]

oh okay THS dies whattt

[RH9]

oh okay THS dies whattt

So, who do you think are scum, now?

[Hero at Heart]

I have a guilty on Merlyn, told you guys she is bad news.

But seriously, I doubt scum would buss here, well at least not as early on the wagon as Imp and Merlyn......figures the two people I scum read the most lol.

I guess maybe Ari could buss there, but doubt it.

Objectively speaking, my hammer was probably the only spot a buss could happen, so I understand it not clearing me.

Now, like I said before I hammered, I did not like RH's reaction to me saying I would hammer std. I believe this should be the vote then it is GG town, let's all crack the champagne.

But at the very least I feel like the lim should be between RH, Bella, and Hero.

limming me sucks cause scum!me could easily divert the lim to implo and then bus std day 2 and get both towncred and a mislim out of the way.

but it's understandable cause i did act like a big hedgy stupido yesterday. so if i do get mislimmed, i will accept responsibility for that.

[Hero at Heart]

oh okay THS dies whattt

So, who do you think are scum, now?

uhhhhhh

i have no idea, i don't think you/ari have no reason to kill ths but i also don't see any of the others having any obvious reasons to kill him.

i will have to think about this.

[Hero at Heart]

actually i rescind this, i don't see any scum motivation for hedging on their partner and making a weak push elsewhere only to immediately say they will hammer their partner anyway

i think drew's sr of me is bullshit.