Open 887: Coalition of Frogs (Game Over)

[Hero at Heart]

Also, I find positioning around my buddies super hard: I think my tr of datisi would be super ballsy

i mean i would call this a defense, idk why you wouldn't call it a defense.

[Merlyn]

merlyn is and has always been somewhat limmable but never the most limworthy person.

that's me, the Once and Future Lim

[Merlyn]

Is there enough people that people do agree on to have not hero, Ari or mala in the coalition?

bella why are you sring me all of a sudden?

@hero, I'm not really, I'm talking about one we could agree on? I dunno, I still like dats' suggestion

i just read this again and i'm actually struggling to understand that thought process as town.

were you trying to get a town coalition or were you merely trying to get a coalition people could agree on? because i feel excluding the three you wanted to exclude is definitely a way to get a compromise coaltion "people can agree on" with zero success chances. idk if it's just me.

also the "still like dats' suggestion" feels a bit like a slip, because he only suggested it after i asked you why you wanted a coalition without me. it's like the littlest slip ever, but right now everyone is so townie i have to look under the rug to find anything scummy.

would like the rest of you to also check that and make sure i'm not hallucinating.

It's thin, but then again you acknowledge that. It is true that we now know that it wouldn't matter if hero, ari, or mala weren't in the coalition as long as Datisi/STD stayed in.

[Aristeia]

VOTE: hero @ heart

sorry if wrong

[Bellaphant]

It's both, isn't it? It has to be a group we can agree on that has the most likely chance of everyone being town, taking in to account that everyone has different reads. For example, I think I was the only person strongly wanting Dr drew in the coalition?

Those are still reads that I feel have the least clarity around them, with mer too, although I kind of get what you are saying about ths, but I didn't see it like that at the time. You want the slots with the most info, but it is more of a compromise than a straight lim

[Bellaphant]

The without you bit is interestibg but I feel I've covered it again: I don't 100% trust you..you feel at times like you are narrative crafting, but I can't tell if that's just personality, or scummy. I thought you were originally Alisae, because you remind me a lot of them in team mafia, where they had the same vibe. I dunno if the alt thing is throwing my subconscious more than I think.

I do agree that everyone looks town to a fair degree. What makes mer town to you? They are the only person who's thought process I've not been like 'yeah sure ' on, but they haven't been overtly scummy

[Bellaphant]

Also, I find positioning around my buddies super hard: I think my tr of datisi would be super ballsy

i mean i would call this a defense, idk why you wouldn't call it a defense.

Ike here: is the defense the pojtn of the post? No, but your response reframes it as it

[Bellaphant]

Part of me doesn't even know why I'm fussing at you, the fact you are efforrting is probably town anyway, I think I low-key want my thoughts prodded because the game is horribly slow

Anyone else got points for me?

[Ausuka]

Prodding implosion.

[Merlyn]

The without you bit is interestibg but I feel I've covered it again: I don't 100% trust you..you feel at times like you are narrative crafting, but I can't tell if that's just personality, or scummy. I thought you were originally Alisae, because you remind me a lot of them in team mafia, where they had the same vibe. I dunno if the alt thing is throwing my subconscious more than I think.

I do agree that everyone looks town to a fair degree. What makes mer town to you? They are the only person who's thought process I've not been like 'yeah sure ' on, but they haven't been overtly scummy

I feel like every time you talk about me, Bella, it's about me to someone else and not at me. I've heard you state doubt towards me multiple times in this game, so why aren't you engaging with me and attempting to sort me through that engagement?

[implosion]

Anyone else got points for me?

I know you gave a sort of rundown of your reads a couple pages ago but I don't feel like I have a good idea of where your head is actually at right now, mostly because that rundown doesn't actually explain who you're feeling like you'd like to lim or not lim today and partially because it feels like you've sort of been playing your game in a way that's not enmeshed in the rest of the game. E.g., what did you think about the bop shot debacle? How are you feeling about like, Hero's waffling or Ari's ultimately going back to Hero?

Who specifically is your preferred lim(s) and why?

[implosion]

Like Hero I also have no idea where they're at right now but they are more or less claiming to have no idea where they're at in a very particular way at least

[implosion]

Oh we have 2 days left in deadline btw.

[Ausuka]

Votecount 3.2

With 5 players alive, it takes 3 votes to eliminate. Day 2 ends in (expired on 2023-10-25 18:39:02).

Elimination Votes

Hero at Heart (1)

- Aristeia

Not Voting (4)

- Bellaphant, Hero at Heart, implosion, Merlyn

Flavour

[Hero at Heart]

VOTE: hero @ heart

sorry if wrong

ari no

can u explain why?

[Aristeia]

Your stances do not feel like they are created from an uninformed mindset.

When I asked you why you townread Datisi at 99% town - your answers felt like you pulled up his iso and started looking for reasons/excuses rather than you knew why you townread him so heavily.

Your readflip on the slot also did not feel organic - saying that all the things you found townie could actually just be scum!him faking it is just ???

I find it hard to believe a uninformed player could express near absolute certainty on a read that is supported by so little actual reasoning and then readflip on it when its convenient/necesary to bus as the partner is going down and also provide absolutely no reasoning for the readflip.

It feels like everything you've done is just what you thought would help you win as mafia and not a town uninformed slot who is naturally coming to conclusions.

[Hero at Heart]

huh

i literally said i didn't pull up his iso but i guess you don't have to believe me on that

yeah i was enumerating the reasons for the tr because it wasn't based on a single post or a single facet of his play, but many.

however around the time the coalition was locked in several things happened together that changed my mind:

he got replaced
the coalition failed
std LIED about not intentionally hammering
maybe more

so these things added up to me realizing he's probably scum, and even before that i read a scum game of his because implo said how i'm naive or something, and then i reread his iso and it all clicked. because these WERE the thing scumtisi was good at. and while they were extremely towny they were also quite different from his behavior in that game we played (though i admit this is a detail i only noticed when i was rereading that game yesterday for the sake of nostalgia)

why is it hard to believe an uninformed player could readflip like this? i think your first readflip on me (when you said "fine i'll tr you" and healed my coalition vote) also feels very convenient for example, but i don't suspect you for it.

also like, i had players before who i locked in as town only to later readflip on.

[Hero at Heart]

it feels like you've sort of been playing your game in a way that's not enmeshed in the rest of the game.

that's exactly what i was feeling about bella that i was scumreading

but i think that might be something she does as town somewhat?

[Hero at Heart]

btw here's a post i drafted earlier and never submitted, idk if it will help ari townread me or make her scumread me even more but i just want to share it cause why not:



okay i just wanna share my thought process here and why i am against bopping (i know we've already moved on from bopping but i thought of this earlier and wanna share)

here's my logic:

assume ari is town and decides to bop shot. then unless she has like amazing reads, she basically has 25% chance to win, otherwise town loses because she gets autolimmed next day.

whereas if we just lim 2 people at random, there's a 1/5 + 4/5*1/3 (=4/15) = 7/15, or just under 50% chance to win.

also if we lim 2 people not at random and i am convincing enough not to be limmed either time, then fmpov since i am town it's a 1/4 + 3/4*1/2 (=3/8) = 5/8 chance to win, which is pretty good

i have been convincing so far since:
1. the coalition i wanted got picked
2. the person i wanted limmed on both day 1 and day 2 got limmed.

so i think i got this.

except i really don't trust my reads so maybe i don't got this.



now for who should be limmed today:
i think merlyn dies tonight 10/10 times, and the explanation for that is that it's optimal for scum to have a 3p with only coalition members. so i don't want to kill her.

i think town never wins a 3p with me, ari and implo so i want to kill one of us. preferably implo because i am simply not voting ari today. i refuse to have my townread on both her and datisi be wrong. and i don't really wanna kill me because it doesn't gain us anything.

i guess bella is also an option today (but not the preferred one) because i really don't know what the hell 3p elo with her would look like and i'm kinda scared that it will be horrible.

as i said i don't think i have any scumread that will actually kill scum with a >rand chance, so that's why i'm thinking in terms of what's the best elo and not who's the likeliest to be scum (since i simply have no clue). however i do think i explained why merlyn and ari have slightly better than rand to be town which is why i'm also not limming them today.

also implo continues to be the towniest person by far but unfortunately that doesn't mean he can't be scum.

[implosion]

it feels like you've sort of been playing your game in a way that's not enmeshed in the rest of the game.

that's exactly what i was feeling about bella that i was scumreading

but i think that might be something she does as town somewhat?

Yeah, I don't know if I find it scummy, it just makes it hard to like, connect her play now to the play earlier from her that I thought was townie

I'm not really sure if I'd particularly expect scum to sputter out in this sort of game; like, if Bella is scum it feels like she was probably putting in more effort toward doing actively deceptive stuff earlier and is trying to coast to some degree now? RL is a thing I suppose so it's probably not something to read too much in to either way.

[Merlyn]

VOTE: Hero at Heart I've gone back and forth on this a lot but 1143 solidified something for me. If Hero is right that I'm doomed then I don't really want Hero in the last day. If he's town he's a real wild card- sorry, Hero!- and if he's scum he's setting up an end of day where he can vote against me bc of his intense confidence I should have gone down, and he's also indicated a preference for Bella to live who has expressed a lot of doubt against me.

[Hero at Heart]

merlyn i said i won't vote you even if you live

i get why you don't believe that, but think of the following:

i promised ari not to lim her if coalition failed, and i didn't do that. so am a man of my word


anyway you can lim me, it might even be optimal so i don't get mislimmed last day, but i will be very sad and it will be a miselim

[Hero at Heart]

i'll be honest i don't think i am going to feel good about any vote i make here


so maybe it's best to lim me anyway cause i can't even think of an alternate wagon.

[implosion]

I'm probably hammering given deadline + i think hero is my top choice to lim all things considered (partially because I'm putting some faith in ari but i don't want to shirk responsibility if it's wrong or w/e, i agree with the sentiment that everyone feels townish right now in isolation and so etc). Definitely would like to hear more from bella first though.

[implosion]

Actually I guess in this context I'm probably not dying anymore if this is wrong so maybe I should just hammer >_>. i'm still not going to do that tonight, mostly because i'm a coward