Open 889 | Secrets of the Anuket Topaz | fin.

[gob]

I dunno Prism, my first impression is that there are a couple of tells that Andres hasn't read enough of the last 10 pages to understand the current gamestate

What makes you say this? Seems like a defense of Andres

[Prism]

I am wondering why everyone forgot about Imaginality today. Do people just not find them scummy like me or what?

Basically my thinking, yeah. They're not a top townread by any means but they're probably my 3rd or 4th choice right now.

[Andresvmb]

I am going to be immensely pissed off if I go with Andres and he flips town and then std leaves the game

If it helps so will I but that's sandbagging for you, he's deadweight as town so he can be deadweight as scum in games like these

I’m not deadweight. You may have difficulty figuring out my alignment because I’ve not been particularly active, but I will object to that characterization.

I already warned everyone here that you’ll be disappointed if you flip me, but that I will take responsibility as it will be the first mis-execution I ever eat from this type of position. And that’s primarily my fault. But my contributions today making you surer that I’m Scum doesn’t make any sense to me.

[Andresvmb]

*looks at the sort of slots voting Gob*

It almost feels like the push on Gob is scum motivated like I said before...

This is also plainly rubbish. But only because it absolves you of any responsibility at actually pointing the finger anywhere. Like fine if you want to say something like “Andres is Scum, so I won’t be supporting that”. Sure. But you’ll notice that my argument is a derivative of the information we actually do have on Alisae, camel and to a lesser extent Titus. You know what those players flipped. You can read gob’s words. Okay if you don’t think they’re conclusive, you expect Scum to be playing differently than what I articulated as assumptions early on, and whatever, I’m Scum for certain so who cares to believe anything I’m saying anyway. But at this stage, I would think you guys that control the vote should be articulating teams that make sense because you’ll get quite a bit of information tonight I presume, and you’ll want to have some form of certainty as to what you expect going into tomorrow.

[Prism]

I’m not deadweight. You may have difficulty figuring out my alignment because I’ve not been particularly active, but I will object to that characterization.

I already warned everyone here that you’ll be disappointed if you flip me, but that I will take responsibility as it will be the first mis-execution I ever eat from this type of position. And that’s primarily my fault. But my contributions today making you surer that I’m Scum doesn’t make any sense to me.

3147 is a criticism of Dragons' laconic playstyle and baseline of underexplanation, not you.

[Andresvmb]

I am going to be immensely pissed off if I go with Andres and he flips town and then std leaves the game

I’ll go looking for your case on STD. I actually genuinely felt some of their frustration was genuine. Maybe I’m a bit of a sucker for emotion, but it’s hard to get frustrated in a way that reads as genuine as Scum I find. There’s some talent on the Scum side and I don’t buy it there ever if I know to expect it. STD? I don’t know. Not enough experience, but would be a tad surprised. They could be Scum, sure. There’s a few things that make me doubt that, but certainly possible.

We’ve played before, so I’ll appeal directly to your intelligence. There are multiple instances on this forum where I build in strength as information increases, and I get into it a little more. I’m building up as this game goes. Hopefully you agree with that. My motivation isn’t always what I like it to be, but I hate to lose, and I would hate even more to be responsible for a loss. I’m going to keep reading, give you a full set of reads, and you can make up your mind from there. From what I’ve read, I have the game somewhat like this:

Lean Town
{T3, Prism, Ydrasse, jjh927}
Slight Lean Town
{SaveTheDragons, Firebringer}
Uncertain
{imaginality}
Slight Lean Scum
{ }
Lean Scum
{gob, Shirou}

I’m not trusting gob and Shirou, but I’m also not understanding Prism’s tunnel at all. They think I’m logical, and coming from a decent place with the information we have. Yet, the posts I’ve made make them more certain I’m Scum? Why? What about them makes you think I’m pushing a Scum agenda?

Surely from this position, I’m looking to escape tonight if I’m Scum. With all the doubt on my slot, do you think I would risk clouding the potential execution of an alternative to my slot by advocating it or voting for it? Or do you think I stay away, and let you guys go forward with an execution I’m either defending, or staying away from? Why would I not just continue to sheep you say? Wasn’t that, to some extent, working better? Maybe, just maybe, I’m actually trying to help.

[Prism]

my contributions today making you surer that I’m Scum doesn’t make any sense to me.

What in this was confusing to you?

Unfortunately, my opinion of his alignment is unchanged. I don't think it's an accident he lands on gob. I also don't think it's an accident that he skipped my argument about camel's pairing of him and gob instead of using it to point to gob, nor that he skipped camel openly stating he "felt a weird" compulsion to defend gob.

First, I think gob was subject to a wider reevaluation: jjh was pushing him, I was vaguely open to it, and imaginality had him low. It is a push that is ripe for opportunism, despite being plausible as town.

Second, I think you avoided my argument about camel's awkward pairing of yourself and gob. Signing onto it as pointing to gob-scum means you are more likely to wind up in a 1v1-a dangerous situation as scum.

Third, while I have not explicitly stated it, you are very incentivized to ramp up your activity and reasonableness now regardless of alignment. I know your history of not being eliminated, and I sympathize. I have not been wrongly eliminated since 2017. However, it is clearly incentivized as scum because you lose the game on the spot if your quality of play does not improve, and fast.

[Prism]

While this was not true at the time of 3127, where I was still hazy on gob, I have since come out with a full-throttle defense of the slot. Any votes there look a tad worse as a result.

[Andresvmb]

my contributions today making you surer that I’m Scum doesn’t make any sense to me.

What in this was confusing to you?

Unfortunately, my opinion of his alignment is unchanged. I don't think it's an accident he lands on gob. I also don't think it's an accident that he skipped my argument about camel's pairing of him and gob instead of using it to point to gob, nor that he skipped camel openly stating he "felt a weird" compulsion to defend gob.

First, I think gob was subject to a wider reevaluation: jjh was pushing him, I was vaguely open to it, and imaginality had him low. It is a push that is ripe for opportunism, despite being plausible as town.

Second, I think you avoided my argument about camel's awkward pairing of yourself and gob. Signing onto it as pointing to gob-scum means you are more likely to wind up in a 1v1-a dangerous situation as scum.

Third, while I have not explicitly stated it, you are very incentivized to ramp up your activity and reasonableness now regardless of alignment. I know your history of not being eliminated, and I sympathize. I have not been wrongly eliminated since 2017. However, it is clearly incentivized as scum because you lose the game on the spot if your quality of play does not improve, and fast.

I didn’t care about the pairing because I can’t read Scum’s mind. So what if camel paired me with gob. I don’t have any clue as to why they did that. I don’t pretend I know the exact motivation.

Separately, I was very low hanging fruit at the point camel put a vote on my slot. But think about it. Bussing me when I’m basically null to everyone makes me more likely to be Scum why exactly? Wouldn’t Scum partnered with me there just ignore me, and say that they’re looking forward to getting content from me but that I’m null otherwise? Why push me as a partner? So that we can, as a Team, confirm 5 players as Town, not including them, even though they voted me first? How is that logical?

[Prism]

I’m not trusting gob and Shirou, but I’m also not understanding Prism’s tunnel at all. They think I’m logical, and coming from a decent place with the information we have. Yet, the posts I’ve made make them more certain I’m Scum? Why? What about them makes you think I’m pushing a Scum agenda?

Surely from this position, I’m looking to escape tonight if I’m Scum. With all the doubt on my slot, do you think I would risk clouding the potential execution of an alternative to my slot by advocating it or voting for it? Or do you think I stay away, and let you guys go forward with an execution I’m either defending, or staying away from? Why would I not just continue to sheep you say? Wasn’t that, to some extent, working better? Maybe, just maybe, I’m actually trying to help.

This is puzzling. You going aggressive as scum "risk

clouding the potential execution of an alternative" instead of putting your best foot forward to show hunting activity and get an elimination, of which you only need one as scum.

You yourself acknowledged that consolidation on gob was far from guaranteed. Your perspective

requires

a nudge and extra effort to get yourself out of the danger zone.

I definitely think it plausible, looking at your posts yesterday in isolation, that you are town trying to help. I would slot it as slightly more likely to be scum and not definitive. Looking at the entire game as a whole, I am pretty sure you are scum.

[Andresvmb]

I’m incentivized to post as Town also because (i) I track my win percentage, but (ii) we also probably lose as Town if I get mis-executed from this position and a Scum escapes. Which is what you’re going to get. Ramping my activity can be used against me and okay, so be it. But if I don’t give it a shot, I’m going to be the apathy vote and I would hate going down like that.

[Prism]

What a disaster of formatting. Don't use brackets and an s.

I’m not trusting gob and Shirou, but I’m also not understanding Prism’s tunnel at all. They think I’m logical, and coming from a decent place with the information we have. Yet, the posts I’ve made make them more certain I’m Scum? Why? What about them makes you think I’m pushing a Scum agenda?

Surely from this position, I’m looking to escape tonight if I’m Scum. With all the doubt on my slot, do you think I would risk clouding the potential execution of an alternative to my slot by advocating it or voting for it? Or do you think I stay away, and let you guys go forward with an execution I’m either defending, or staying away from? Why would I not just continue to sheep you say? Wasn’t that, to some extent, working better? Maybe, just maybe, I’m actually trying to help.

This is puzzling. You going aggressive as scum "risk(s) clouding the potential execution of an alternative" instead of putting your best foot forward to show hunting activity and get an elimination, of which you only need one as scum.

You yourself acknowledged that consolidation on gob was far from guaranteed. Your perspective

requires

a nudge and extra effort to get yourself out of the danger zone.

I definitely think it plausible, looking at your posts yesterday in isolation, that you are town trying to help. I would slot it as slightly more likely to be scum and not definitive. Looking at the entire game as a whole, I am pretty sure you are scum.
[/quote]

[Prism]

I’m incentivized to post as Town also because (i) I track my win percentage, but (ii) we also probably lose as Town if I get mis-executed from this position and a Scum escapes. Which is what you’re going to get. Ramping my activity can be used against me and okay, so be it. But if I don’t give it a shot, I’m going to be the apathy vote and I would hate going down like that.

None of this is lost on me. My point is there is a very strong scum incentive to make high-effort posts. I have to look to other factors like content, convenience, PoE, and other interactions throughout the game to make that call.

[Andresvmb]

Like if you’re going to argue that putting content out so you can read me makes me more likely to be Scum, without tackling what I’m saying, then I don’t have to talk to you. You’ve made up your mind and nothing I do is going to change that. So I won’t. Good luck winning the game with that mentality. And someone with your experience should easily be able to tell if I’m just ramping up my activity because I want to escape my own execution or because I want to give you thoughts based on actual content in the game and my take, see if you agree or think I’m just trying to create a distraction. But at least have a thought of what I’m saying. Because there’s players here that will listen to you and if you’re Town and just content to bury me here, then the more content I put out and the more time I spend reading, the less gracious I’ll be about being mis-executed here.

[Prism]

Separately, I was very low hanging fruit at the point camel put a vote on my slot. But think about it. Bussing me when I’m basically null to everyone makes me more likely to be Scum why exactly? Wouldn’t Scum partnered with me there just ignore me, and say that they’re looking forward to getting content from me but that I’m null otherwise? Why push me as a partner? So that we can, as a Team, confirm 5 players as Town, not including them, even though they voted me first? How is that logical?

Please walk me through this vote of camel's directly and explain to me why it deserves the label of an attempt at a "bus" over a meaningless early vote. I strongly encourage you to use quotes and the surrounding context, which are very obvious from his ISO alone.

[Prism]

3163 is refusing to acknowledge that I am not arguing you are scum for putting in effort. Please read the posts if you are town.

[Andresvmb]

I don’t know how looking at the overall game makes me more likely to be Scum. I mistrusted Alisae, never voted there. I almost didn’t speak about Titus or the slot, and also didn’t vote there. So as far as you can tell, I’ve had no influence whatsoever on any Town execution so far. So 1/3 of the Team in your view has had no measurable influence in a game where the execution of one Scum has a really negative effect in the early part of the game. Even if I was super busy, at the very least I think you would expect me to have tried to at least position my votes a bit better. So that argument makes no sense.

[Prism]

I am struggling to believe that you have zero ability to insert yourself into a hypothetical scum-Andres world and talk candidly about incentives and in an objective way.

The casting of these posts of camel's as strong town-interactions, while being seemingly blind to the many other interactions players have had with camel, is equally concerning:

ok actually in the spare time

VOTE: Andresvmb's slot

ok actually in the spare time

VOTE: Andresvmb's slot

UNVOTE: Andresvmb

Note the post numbers.

But I am willing to argue with you on your own terms! I will readily cede to you that this is a strong town interaction worthy of calling you town.

Let's explore that world.

VOTE: gob

gob and andre are the only ones who haven't posted (why i originally voted imaginality)

Same reason he voted you. Why is gob scum?

[Andresvmb]

3163 is refusing to acknowledge that I am not arguing you are scum for putting in effort. Please read the posts if you are town.

You are not saying it directly, but you are dismissing my posting because you think I have an incentive as Scum to behave a certain way, when I think that’s NAI here. You bringing it up means you think it’s alignment indicative in some way. I’m telling you my motivation would exist either way, and you can’t tell just from that.

[gob]

Damn ya'll going at it.

[Andresvmb]

I am struggling to believe that you have zero ability to insert yourself into a hypothetical scum-Andres world and talk candidly about incentives and in an objective way.

The casting of these posts of camel's as strong town-interactions, while being seemingly blind to the many other interactions players have had with camel, is equally concerning:

ok actually in the spare time

VOTE: Andresvmb's slot

ok actually in the spare time

VOTE: Andresvmb's slot

UNVOTE: Andresvmb

Note the post numbers.

But I am willing to argue with you on your own terms! I will readily cede to you that this is a strong town interaction worthy of calling you town.

Let's explore that world.

VOTE: gob

gob and andre are the only ones who haven't posted (why i originally voted imaginality)

Same reason he voted you. Why is gob scum?

You have seen the posts from gob I have highlighted that point in that direction. You think gob is solid Town, and that I’m solid Scum. camel voted us both, though admittedly at different moments and for different motivations. I would just argue that unless camel held the vote on gob’s slot for a long period of time (I’m not sure I remember exactly that, but I don’t think so), then the act of voting gob or I doesn’t make a difference in evaluating whether I’m Town or gob is Town.

But gob does have a lot of content on their own. And you can read their pushes, you can see how they’re angling, and you can read their words on camel or Titus yourself. I think that’s very helpful.

[Prism]

3163 is refusing to acknowledge that I am not arguing you are scum for putting in effort. Please read the posts if you are town.

You are not saying it directly, but you are dismissing my posting because you think I have an incentive as Scum to behave a certain way, when I think that’s NAI here. You bringing it up means you think it’s alignment indicative in some way.

I’m telling you my motivation would exist either way, and you can’t tell just from that.

I think I have been very candid and fair on this front. You yourself have just posted acknowledging this immediately before, so I won't argue it further.

I will instead tackle your point that "I think that's NAI here. You bringing it up means you think it's alignment indicative in some way." I was actually making the point that your high-effort posting was NAI to imaginality, so thank you for agreeing with me.

My first impression of Andres' bunch of posts just now is the thought process makes sense to me. Particularly the suspicion of gob but also the wariness over Shirou.

I feel like it woule have been really tempting for Andres as scum to add to the pressure on StD rather than redirecting to gob. Unless the scumteam is specifically Andres and StD. But I still doubt camel escapes first with StD as a scumbuddy though. So I'm going to say Andres is town.

VOTE: gob

My first impression is that it is an impressive set of posts: very clear, mostly logical, and relatively thorough.

Unfortunately, my opinion of his alignment is unchanged. I don't think it's an accident he lands on gob. I also don't think it's an accident that he skipped my argument about camel's pairing of him and gob instead of using it to point to gob, nor that he skipped camel openly stating he "felt a weird" compulsion to defend gob.

I have more work to do on reading into gob, but my confidence ticked a little bit higher tonight.

[Andresvmb]

Look I actually want to finish reading before I keep going with this. I don’t think I’m fully up to date and it makes it harder to be helpful. So let me try to do that.

[Prism]

From my perspective it looks like you think your high-effort posting is incentivized as scum, probably NAI, that I have to look at the broader context and content of yours and camel's posts, and that the vote by camel isn't too indicative after all.

You protested all of those things at first, but it looks like we've found quite a bit of common ground after all. I'm happy to let you continue reading.

[Andresvmb]

Like fine you’re super convinced I’m Scum. You’re wrong, but I can’t be all that annoyed about it because I haven’t played for large stretches of this game. But I think there is a massive incentive built into this game to

not coast

as Scum that isn’t ordinarily there, because 1 execution can be brutal or straight up losing. And I think my activity overall doesn’t make me more likely to be Scum. If I’m the LHF, low posting, low influence Scum you think I am, I would have argued strongly to have escaped already. So I’m going to insist that my overall approach doesn’t make me more likely to be Scum.