Night Watch Open 95 - Game Over before 703

[bionicchop2]

ok maybe all the unconfirmed people should say who they'd most like lynched/investigated by the hider and why

Wasn't that accomplished by ranking suspects?

I will but I'd firstly like to ask xtoxm/bio for more reasons why each other are scummy.

I just completed a game with him as his scum partner (was not complete until last night). I think I have a decent grasp of his play style and the subtle variations based on his alignment.

[Xtoxm]

I have no more reasons.

I've pretty much accepted i'm going to be lynched today, i'm cool with that.

Again, I don't see how i'm scummy, but I never get why people lynch me but they always do anyway.

I see no benefit to self hammering, so i'm not going to this game. I only do that if there's a good logical reason too, or if someone's really pissed me off.

I'm going to see Slipknot tonight!

[bionicchop2]

You know I usually don't find you scummy mate - even in games when others do. I think the cases on you are normally just convenience cases. If I end up being wrong, I apologize to you in advance.

The main thing I have seen in this game is your lingering vote on Crazy without your usual assertions about the player you are voting for as being scum. You generally are more abrasive as town and more passive as scum from what I have seen.

If I am wrong on you, I think we still have a great chance to win.

[icemanE]

@bio -

I think you rely on meta WAYYY too much. You can't automatically rule out someone being scum because you don't find them scummy in other games. That's so flawed.

[bionicchop2]

@bio -

I think you rely on meta WAYYY too much. You can't automatically rule out someone being scum because you don't find them scummy in other games. That's so flawed.

Playing over 50% of your games with the same player (I have with Xtoxm) you have to be a very bad player to not let meta weigh heavily into your decisions. If a payer shows a tendency to change their play often enough, meta becomes a null tell. If a player has certain habits, those are far more reliable than any static tell which others seem to cling to. In a poker game, if somebody looks away when they have a good hand or bets a certain way when they are bluffing, you note these things and use them in the future. Unfortunately in mafia, you often have to point out what these actions are and it gives the player an opportunity to fix them or use them to manipulate you. Would it be easier for you to accept if I just pointed to xtoxm's short posts of limited content and his OMGUS voting? Those are the things that seem to get him lynched without any consideration when he is town. The fact I know these aren't scum tell for him means I won't ever try to get him lynched with them.

You can look at the game you just modded as an example of meta being reliable if you can find consistencies. We spent like 15 pages discussing the meta of a single action by a player who wasn't even in the game anymore. Once a player becomes aware of their own meta, then it becomes unreliable.

[icemanE]

Meta sucks for specifically that reason you mentioned:

If someone does something scummy, it should count as a scumtell, no matter what. If a person consistently does scummy things and it becomes their meta, they should correct their play, because if a person is allowed to get away doing scummy things and someone else is going to toss out anything they do that's scummy, they'll get away that easily.

Once a player becomes aware of their own meta, then it becomes unreliable.

And you just pointed it out to him. So according to yourself, it's unreliable.

[StrangerCoug]

Again, I don't see how i'm scummy, but I never get why people lynch me but they always do anyway.

This is your case, just going on my posts:

Xtoxm, I love it when you ignore my request to explain why exactly you think icemanE and I are the most likely scum of those of us that haven't claimed a power role. You say you use process of elimination to scumhunt., and despite my not wanting to know why you think the other unknowns are town, even your explaining why you think those people are town is vague.

Vote: Xtoxm

Xtoxm ignoring afatchic's #543 is noted.

Xtoxm, stop vote hopping.

Please don't tell me you're this dense.

[bionicchop2]

Meta sucks for specifically that reason you mentioned:

If someone does something scummy, it should count as a scumtell, no matter what. If a person consistently does scummy things and it becomes their meta, they should correct their play, because if a person is allowed to get away doing scummy things and someone else is going to toss out anything they do that's scummy, they'll get away that easily.

Once a player becomes aware of their own meta, then it becomes unreliable.

And you just pointed it out to him. So according to yourself, it's unreliable.

1. my task in each game is not to rectify a players meta, it is to determine who scum is.

2. The meta can become unreliable after the point it is made known. All actions prior to that (the entire game) are reliable.

[Jex]

Vote Count:

3 - Xtoxm (StrangerCoug, camn, bionicchop2)
2 - Crazy (afatchic, ortolan)
1 -Camn (Xtoxm)

Not Voting

Crazy, icemanE, orangepenguin,

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

PS Thanks for the bday wish Stranger

[afatchic]

Happy birthday Jex!

I Honestly don't want the lynch of xtoxm today, since i have started getting a more town read on him. however if everyone is content on lynching him then i will hide behind crazy. if we can somehow lynch crazy then i will be hiding behind xtoxm.

[bionicchop2]

I Honestly don't want the lynch of xtoxm today, since i have started getting a more town read on him. however if everyone is content on lynching him then i will hide behind crazy. if we can somehow lynch crazy then i will be hiding behind xtoxm.

I am not sure I see a difference between the 2 actions, so I have no problem switching if needed. I see Camn as a more likely partner if xtoxm is scum, so my suspicion of xtoxm puts crazy more on the town side for me. I don't see xtoxm's actions in line with xtoxm/crazy as partners at this time.

[afatchic]

well i see xtoxm and camn as more likely town, so i see crazy as more likely scum

[orangepenguin]

I am going to take my chances, and

vote: Crazy

. Had a bad feeling about him yesterday, and that's why I investigated him.

[bionicchop2]

Unless ortolan and crazy are both scum, your town reads are off. I know you are assuming I am scum, so that is probably factoring in.

[icemanE]

I am putting Xtoxm at L-1 right... now:

vote: Xtoxm

[Xtoxm]

Meta does not suck, it is the single best way to get a read on someone in Mafia by a long shot.

It's cool Bio. I know you don't

I was refering more to the cleared ones on my bandwagon.

I apologise also if i'm wrong. You know the reason i've voted you, and I take it as a big scumtell, although it could be Crazy/Camn. If Ort's scum then i'll admit i've been horribly wrong on him all game, and congratulate him on his performance, because i'm quite convinced he's town.

I still urge you to consider not hiding tonight, Fat. Don't say that you're going to, just please consider it. You hiding behind scum or being killed in a double would lose the town a mislynch, and a cleared townie, and would be really harmful for town...And you don't need to take a risk like that on the low chance of confirming town victory, I think you have it anyway.

And Slipknot was awesome btw!

Feel like i'm home wa early though...

[ortolan]

There's no point voting Crazy if afatchic is going to kamikaze him tonight

Am I the only one who finds xtoxm's recent posts quite scummy?

By all means, lynch me today. Just think about what i've said. And i'm quite sure Bio is scum at this point.

I know if I was going to be the one lynched (and know I am town) I sure as hell would want to get the votes onto someone else. I know town has nothing to gain by lynching me so would try to convince them to lynch anyone else, all of whom have a greater probability than me of being scum

And posts 626 reads like a concession post. Neither town nor scum have anything to gain from accepting their lynch at this point.

And while I re-iterate that if bio is scum he is *very* good at acting town, the possibility recently occurred to me that bio is actually bussing xtoxm- hence xtoxm not being all that reluctant to take the lynch.

That said Crazy is lurking his arse off so I still think xtoxm/Crazy are the priority.

[orangepenguin]

There's no point voting Crazy if afatchic is going to kamikaze him tonight

Well, if we do lynch Crazy, he'd "kamikaze" Xtoxm.

[afatchic]

There's no point voting Crazy if afatchic is going to kamikaze him tonight

Well, if we do lynch Crazy, he'd "kamikaze" Xtoxm.

^^^^^This ^^^^

[ortolan]

So if we're sure these two are the most suspect doesn't it mean it's trivial which one we actually choose to lynch, because the other will get investigated tonight anyway

any objections to me hammering xtoxm?

[icemanE]

any objections to me hammering xtoxm?

Rock him like a hurricane.

[afatchic]

Unvote, vote Xtoxm

I wanted to hammer.

[ortolan]

Vote: Xtoxm

so his lynch is overdetermined

[ortolan]

Unvote

Vote: Xtoxm

[afatchic]

Haha, im still happy because i got the hammer. i still feel bad about this lynch though. im predicting lynch seen: After Xtoxm willfully walks up to the rope, you search him to find he is merely a townie.