At some point before d2.5 or during the beginning of it I'll do the EV for each option if no one else has. It looks like the design thread doesn't have it for this version of the setup.
Gut from pages 1-4 is Dann town (though I think I remember seeing that's someone consensus?), Mandate town, Taly scummy e.g. don't really like the "is of note" at the end of
76. Noncommittal, throwing shade without actually saying that he scumreads a slot that's been doing a bunch of stuff. I thought Mandate's opening was slightly +town even from someone who is clearly gimmicking and I like the timing of the Taly vote on page 4 quite a lot. Dann is townish just for voting like 8 times in 4 pages.
I'm pretty much with Mandate until
140 which is a Bad Post. I mean it's easily Mandate lying to themself as town but the Bayesian argument against hard partner tells on page 6 is a pet peeve of mine. The sheer odds that you're right about a "x and y are partnered" read is so low (less than 4%) as to, in principle, require a huge amount of evidence to surmount. I also don't really have a read on Keyleth at this point fwiw
149 is actually an interesting post and probably true of me bc I probably would have explained things in the scum PT at some point, alas. Probably +town (maybe strongly) for Brown Eyes to point out an observation like that, it's an observation that could easily just never be made by anyone. Dunn calling Brown Eyes town shortly after this is slightly good for Dunn (who I don't really have much of a read on at this point).
167 by Mandate is also a bad post IMO (they're still town), I think making a strong assumption that scum would townbloc in this setup is sort of unfounded. Plus scum would have to actually be in the thread to do that and it's always possible that scum just hadn't entered the thread yet at that point
Through page 7 so far and I guess I'm hitting submit on what I have so far
