Open 889 | Secrets of the Anuket Topaz | fin.

[gob]

VOTE: gob

the fact gob just keeps ignoring me pushing snivy and not just arguing that i was scum bussing is like so bad faith.

all these vote count arguments are obfuscating actual analysis.
gob could be town. Idc right now. This is boring

LOL, dude vote count arguments are basically the realest analysis there is. People's votes, especially the ones at the EoD, it is the strongest piece of evidence to show what alignment someone is.

Anyway, I do have other shit against you. Like you and Camel jumping on Titus at the same time.

[gob]

I cannot explain exactly why, since I didn't really learn this myself I was just told about this "life hack" so to speak.

somehow i missed this one and i am HOWLING

It is in fact what happened. My reads were always good, but I couldn't "solve" games, especially big ones. With wagon analysis you can actually solve.

[Prism]

VOTE: gob

the fact gob just keeps ignoring me pushing snivy and not just arguing that i was scum bussing is like so bad faith.

all these vote count arguments are obfuscating actual analysis.
gob could be town. Idc right now. This is boring

I mean it's no secret they're bad, and I concur that they're obfuscating/distracting, but we should probably just ignore them and let his voice echo into a void at this point instead of putting him front and center.

[gob]

Oh my god, okay. Whatever whatever.

[T3]

I've probably hit the floor of possible winrate as town but at least I put it on my wiki page

[Andresvmb]

I’m not going to pay much attention to 3440 and I don’t think anyone else should either. What you’re doing gob is wholly unconvincing. camel was just looking to hammer a player that wasn’t a partner to end the day and escape. I’m also of the view that Scum wouldn’t have been so happy to sit on imaginality for as long as camel did when Titus was getting run up and the slip argument came out if imaginality is camel’s partner, but that’s my view.

Assume gob your way of breaking the game up made some sense (it doesn’t - it discounts context way too much, and can easily be gamed, but for the sake of argument, let’s pretend Scum don’t all push a single wagon through the vast majority of the time, so one stays off-wagon in most situations). In the case of Titus, you could plausibly make the argument that camel

was

off-wagon. Under normal circumstances, camel probably doesn’t hammer Titus there. camel can build Town cred by not doing so, their partners have already done a good chunk of the job, the Town is seemingly imploding, and the other alternative is a player camel clearly doesn’t care to see flipped (or benefits Scum in some way). Yet the mechanics of the game provided a massive incentive for camel to hammer Titus and end the day, since they were the ones intending to escape. That incentive probably overrides any sort of normal cluster rules you would apply as a mental shortcut. At the very least, I wouldn’t ignore this possibility.

[Prism]

For Andres: I mean clearly we're unanimous that he's using ideas that have been around since 2004, but do you still really doubt he is sincere in his presentation and argumentation?

[jjh927]

I'm about to sleep but I'm just going to pop in and say surely gob must have had this argument in a previous game if these are views he really holds


I also find it very ???? that gob unvoted imag when the wagon appeared to be gaining traction

[Prism]

I also find it very ???? that gob unvoted imag when the wagon appeared to be gaining traction

I wasn't surprised for two reasons. First was because you've always been in his scumpool, but looking back it appears you were recently put in town at some point. I won't ask. Second, this lukewarm commitment to votes before deadline is basically what we saw from him Days 1 & 2.

[Andresvmb]

For Andres: I mean clearly we're unanimous that he's using ideas that have been around since 2004, but do you still really doubt he is sincere in his presentation and argumentation?

Yes and no. I am of the general mindset that Scum try as hard as they can to avoid attracting too much attention. So gob putting out silly concepts out and insisting so hard they’re correct (particularly when others have consistently pushed back, starting with the thought that STD getting run up early makes it impossible they’re Scum) is, ironically, +Town. I can see your argument there. Who wants to continue to lose influence? But any Scum execution today ends the game for Scum. So there’s some incentive there to put forth any argument you can to defend a Partner. Also, if gob has an inkling that appearing somewhat ridiculous makes them more likely to be TR’ed, then that’s another reason to do it. But I do lean that on its own, it’s not a net negative. I have expressed other reasons as to why gob is Scum and I think those should carry more weight, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk, sure.

[T3]

I've put forth obviously terrible arguments as scum and just been laughed at and townread

[T3]

I started trying to play into it, I realized that people were townreading me for being super sincere so I tried playing into the all-over-the-place newbscum vibes

[Andresvmb]

I am now extremely confident that gob is town.

I will not be voting there today under any circumstance. I will only be voting Andres unless required to vote elsewhere.

So uh, on camel we have


-Scum on backend of std wagon (pointing away from camel)
-Suddenly, camel is scum for what gob posted earlier

(which does not exist because the prior posted quote is the only earlier commentary on camel)

and is a plausible option for scum on the std wagon
-gob reads 2 posts from before, the latter of which contains camel's reads and then he's like yep that's town now because he agrees with the reads

This wasn't true. Here's the progression:

shirou is scum

UNVOTE: gob

VOTE: Save The Dragons

what was this about? kind of odd to say someone is scum but then vote someone else.

jjh927 is also pretty towny

imginality i think just plays like that so i don't think they're scummy anymore

camel is pretty scummy for what i posted before

I still stand by what I said about the StD wagon. camelCasedSnivy, Shirou, Ydrasse, Alisae, Prism

This probably does have one scum. I'd say camel or Alisae. Prism, idk they're weird. We'll see.

It's very reasonable imo-he thought camel scumreading Shirou [a misinterpretation because camel was playing an opposite joke] but voting Dragons was a bizarre choice.

so im not quite sure if it was obvious but i didn't have much to go off of that std was scum

i liked his posting after we built up a wagon on him so after some time i got off

the gob wagon feels like the same process but with different results i don't like it

HM maybe you are not scum after all.

gob liked that camel was wagoning to drive content rather than to actually get Dragons voted out. He then pretty consistently townreads camel, dialogues with camel about reads, defends camel to me and T3, and talks with camel about how he also wants to flip me.

The next day, he flips his read on camel to more of a null-scum. His reason is "I've felt camel was solvey day 1. This past day though I feel like they have just been messing around." This is a clear progression from his Day 1 read where he liked camel's early wagoning and prodding around.

I think there’s something to be said about gob’s progression on camel, but I don’t find it to be as positive as you do Prism. If gob and camel are partnered, it seems far more important for them not to push each other D1 than it is D2 when Town has been executed. You still don’t want to pursue them necessarily, but creating some distance when camel was looking to potentially escape (I presume they discussed at least that if they’re both Scum) does seem like a solid strategy. There’s also something really cheeky about 3444 I can’t quite put my finger on. I would be more careful than you’re being here in assuming that the progression is pure because it goes from Town > null Scum, when the incentive for Scum is exactly that (and it’s not like gob was pursuing camel super hard either).

[gob]

It is what it is.

[Andresvmb]

I think we go Titus/imaginality or JJH.

Like they said that about camel, and yet their agenda was this. Posted immediately after.

[Prism]

I've put forth obviously terrible arguments as scum and just been laughed at and townread

I don't think it's impossible my any means, but mafia is a game of judgment. I think he comes down strongly on the "likely sincere" side of things, and if I'm wrong then that's that.

I also think it's the icing on the cake and that he's town for other reasons, so I'm not very worried. The point of my question was to challenge Andres's read in light of the posts he had just read. I think his middle-of-the-road answer is well-crafted, but I still think the more natural conclusion to reach is "gob is town".

And like I said, if I'm town, Andres is town, and gob is scum, Andres and I can trade an egg on each other's faces.

[Prism]

I guess in that world Andres would get two eggs to my one, but who's counting?

[Andresvmb]

I’ve read every post. I have this nagging feeling I have a blind spot, so I may do a few ISOs. I will not be voting imaginality today. I also want it considered that I’ve sheeped jjh in this game a lot and called them Town, and you Prism have very many times argued consistently that jjh very much seems to be Town given their predisposition say in their dealings with STD. Like it should give you some pause that as Scum, I’ve then given Town a double vote for large chunks of this game.

[Andresvmb]

I’ll re-read Ydrasse, Firebringer, and STD, see if there’s anything to highlight there.

[Prism]

I’ve read every post. I have this nagging feeling I have a blind spot, so I may do a few ISOs. I will not be voting imaginality today. I also want it considered that I’ve sheeped jjh in this game a lot and called them Town, and you Prism have very many times argued consistently that jjh very much seems to be Town given their predisposition say in their dealings with STD. Like it should give you some pause that as Scum, I’ve then given Town a double vote for large chunks of this game.

If I were to pull up Mafia451 and find a game where you were scum and Ellibereth was town, I wouldn't happen to find a similar strategy to the one here in any game, would I?

[Lazy Shirou]

My beautiful wagon on T3 has been dismantled, but honestly I'm finding increasingly hard to justify voting T3 when Andres is scumposting stuff like "you're better than this" anyway.

I feel like T3 deserves a win more here compared to scum!Imaginality/scum!Andres

[Lazy Shirou]

Let's go Prism!

VOTE: Andres

[Lazy Shirou]

@Andres Your argument on me back in D2 was terrible, your argument on Prism being scum right now is terrible and the way you're complaining about being voted/suspecting Prism for poor reasons is JUST LIKE Camel.

Dunno, wouldn't be sad to see you flipped I guess

[Prism]

Let's go Prism!

VOTE: Andres

ANGELS SANG OUT

IN AN IMMACULATE CHORUS

[Lazy Shirou]

sure theoretically anyone can be scum including Prism but I feel like his actions at this point are really hard to justify always having scum incentive if he isn't a perfectionist or something

he keeps pouring effort into solving even when it's hard to conceptualize why he should bother when he would likely be in a good position or could vote for one of the easier counterwagons if his partner was being suspected