Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[Mizuki]

Crabapples, while not very edible by themselves, make a delicious jam and I am no sad that my MIL stopped making it.

@Mizuki

What about 30 do you not like enough to vote? At best, it seems like WIFOM to me.

It's just vibes, it came off as a very "bored" response to the RVS wagon forming on them, and in these early stages of the games that's what I find to be Maf-indicative since I don't think a lot of people enjoy playing Maf on this site, at least not as much as they enjoy playing Town, for various reasons. I could obviously be totally reading the tone wrong or reading too much into it, but I also don't think theres much harm in keeping the hydra at E-2 for right now.

[shaddowez]

I did briefly consider if hypoclaiming (everyone picks a town role off the clock and then claims a target/result at the beginning of D2, the actual town PR's could claim their real results and then if they die)

Unless there's enough overlap in claims, doesn't this give scum the exact setup?

[Thomith]

I did briefly consider if hypoclaiming (everyone picks a town role off the clock and then claims a target/result at the beginning of D2, the actual town PR's could claim their real results and then if they die)

Unless there's enough overlap in claims, doesn't this give scum the exact setup?

I was thinking this, I'd be a little worried to do this, because the scum could guess either the exact setup, or get very close to the exact set up depending on what PR they themselves have, and who ends up hypoclaiming what.

[Mizuki]

That is a point against it but also Maf already have a 50/50 shot of guessing the exact setup since they can infer it from their PR.

[shaddowez]

It's just vibes, it came off as a very "bored" response to the RVS wagon forming on them, and in these early stages of the games that's what I find to be Maf-indicative since I don't think a lot of people enjoy playing Maf on this site, at least not as much as they enjoy playing Town, for various reasons. I could obviously be totally reading the tone wrong or reading too much into it, but I also don't think theres much harm in keeping the hydra at E-2 for right now.

Interesting take, I'll have to try and pay attention to that. I know personally even when I'm town I don't hard defend myself unless I'm fairly certain the person pushing me is scum, because I feel it's more helpful to wincon to continue scumhunting.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay, reasonable enough. I think any protectives hypoclaiming would feed more info to scum anyways.

I do think there is merit to hypoclaiming the roles adjacent to Mafia Rolecop - that is located on 3 and 9 so hypoclaiming as though you are one of 2, 4, 8, or 10 could work. It would not give mafia any more information about the roles in the setup than they already have, though they could fish out VTs that provide a result they know to be false. For example if scum!Mizuki performs the NK and I claim Followed Mizuki, she went nowhere - then scum!Mizuki would know I'm not a real Follower. Possibly I could still be a protective hypoclaiming as investigative but scum would know I can't guilty them in that scenario.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

55 was a response to 46. Too lazy to pedit on phone

[Thomith]

That is a point against it but also Maf already have a 50/50 shot of guessing the exact setup since they can infer it from their PR.

I don't think that's true. Due to how the clock could work, I think there would be 3 different combinations of Town PR's that it could be depending on the Mafia's PR. Even more if the Mafia have a Rolecop.

[Mizuki]

It's just vibes, it came off as a very "bored" response to the RVS wagon forming on them, and in these early stages of the games that's what I find to be Maf-indicative since I don't think a lot of people enjoy playing Maf on this site, at least not as much as they enjoy playing Town, for various reasons. I could obviously be totally reading the tone wrong or reading too much into it, but I also don't think theres much harm in keeping the hydra at E-2 for right now.

Interesting take, I'll have to try and pay attention to that. I know personally even when I'm town I don't hard defend myself unless I'm fairly certain the person pushing me is scum, because I feel it's more helpful to wincon to continue scumhunting.

The difference is just in tone for me. Town also tend to ignore speedwagons in RVS but usually they have a more playful demeanor about it because at the point of RVS most people are in the kind of "I'm joshing around with my friends/fellow townies" attitude. I thought Puff's response came off as very cookie-cutter and disinterested.

It's not a silver bullet to finding scum because it can be due to OGI factors and what not, but it's the method I use during the very early stages.

That is a point against it but also Maf already have a 50/50 shot of guessing the exact setup since they can infer it from their PR.

I don't think that's true. Due to how the clock could work, I think there would be 3 different combinations of Town PR's that it could be depending on the Mafia's PR. Even more if the Mafia have a Rolecop.

Brain not working right, you're correct. For some reason I was only thinking about if the clock landed on the Maf PR specficially.

I think Kyouko's idea would probably work best, but I won't push for it super hard if people aren't on board with it.

[Gamma Emerald]

I didn't really familiarize myself with the setup beyond win-rate and the basics of it. PR's getting voted off early though is a fairly common occurrence in my experience since people playing PR's tend to get angrier faster especially when they feel their getting voted by townies, which can lead to self-voting or simply being taken as being overly defensive.

I did briefly consider if hypoclaiming (everyone picks a town role off the clock and then claims a target/result at the beginning of D2, the actual town PR's could claim their real results and then if they die) would be useful here, and I think it might be unless the clock specifically landed on 5. Would require everyone to be on board with it, though.

VOTE: Puffalicious Back to E-2, 30 gave me some vibes.

I thought I had a foolproof strategy of differant themes and only being logged in as crab on my laptop and only being logged in as element's on my phone

The trick is to bookmark the threads you're in only on one account and only access that thread through bookmarks. That's how I do it.

Eh I think hypo might be viable if claiming target but not role/result

[Alianna]

1.02

Votecount 1.02

Puffalicious (E-2): CrabApple, Cobblerfone, Mizuki
shaddowez (1): Gamma Emerald
Cobblerfone (1): Thomith
Mizuki (1): Celebloki
Celebloki (1): ssbm_Kyouko

Not Voting (2): Puffalicious, shaddowez

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-11-26 23:23:15).

[Thomith]

I kind of want to wait and see what Puff's response to people questioning of 30 is before looking too deep on what the motivations could have been.
I feel like it easily could have been done with the same motivations as 19 tbh, but will wait and see what they say about it.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

That is a point against it but also Maf already have a 50/50 shot of guessing the exact setup since they can infer it from their PR.

I don't think that's true. Due to how the clock could work, I think there would be 3 different combinations of Town PR's that it could be depending on the Mafia's PR. Even more if the Mafia have a Rolecop.

This is correct. Maf have a 1/6 chance of guessing the setup from Rolecop POV and a 1/3 chance from either of the other PRs. Since the "other PRs" and the "rolecop" scenarios are equally likely we can just average this to a 25% chance to guess the setup outright (but in reality it is either 16.67% or 33% depending on what PR they got.

[Gamma Emerald]

That is a point against it but also Maf already have a 50/50 shot of guessing the exact setup since they can infer it from their PR.

Aren’t there 2 mafia role cops?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think the ideal play for D2 is to do a pre-hypoclaim "categorical" claim where everyone claims whether or not they have a hard guilty. A hard guilty here would be a Rolecop that discovers a Rolecop/Roleblocker, or a Follower that sees their target kill. Assuming everyone claims they do NOT have a guilty, then we can proceed to hypoclaiming as though we are all one of the 4 roles that surrounds Mafia Rolecop. This will allow anyone who is actually on 2/4/8/10 to claim their results for post-flip analysis without giving too much away to scum in the moment. On the plus side, in the case of a hard guilty, there is a 50% chance that the other TPR is a protective that can save the player that claimed the hard guilty for more results D3 onward.

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay, reasonable enough. I think any protectives hypoclaiming would feed more info to scum anyways.

I do think there is merit to hypoclaiming the roles adjacent to Mafia Rolecop - that is located on 3 and 9 so hypoclaiming as though you are one of 2, 4, 8, or 10 could work. It would not give mafia any more information about the roles in the setup than they already have, though they could fish out VTs that provide a result they know to be false. For example if scum!Mizuki performs the NK and I claim Followed Mizuki, she went nowhere - then scum!Mizuki would know I'm not a real Follower. Possibly I could still be a protective hypoclaiming as investigative but scum would know I can't guilty them in that scenario.

This strat isn’t great because based on the one player that is on 1/5/7/11 mafia can solve the setup

[Thomith]

I think the ideal play for D2 is to do a pre-hypoclaim "categorical" claim where everyone claims whether or not they have a hard guilty. A hard guilty here would be a Rolecop that discovers a Rolecop/Roleblocker, or a Follower that sees their target kill. Assuming everyone claims they do NOT have a guilty, then we can proceed to hypoclaiming as though we are all one of the 4 roles that surrounds Mafia Rolecop. This will allow anyone who is actually on 2/4/8/10 to claim their results for post-flip analysis without giving too much away to scum in the moment. On the plus side, in the case of a hard guilty, there is a 50% chance that the other TPR is a protective that can save the player that claimed the hard guilty for more results D3 onward.

If the number roll was 8, could there not be a Town Roleblocker and Rolecop in the same setup?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Wait I'm mistaken, a rolecop that discovers a roleblocker is not a hard guilty upon further inspection. Town Rolecop can be in the same setup as Town Roleblocker

pedit: yeah Thomith sees it

[Puffalicious]

I made post 29 and my partner Gob made post 30 and he will have to elaborate more on this. I was in a rush and forgot to put my initial.

- A

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay, reasonable enough. I think any protectives hypoclaiming would feed more info to scum anyways.

I do think there is merit to hypoclaiming the roles adjacent to Mafia Rolecop - that is located on 3 and 9 so hypoclaiming as though you are one of 2, 4, 8, or 10 could work. It would not give mafia any more information about the roles in the setup than they already have, though they could fish out VTs that provide a result they know to be false. For example if scum!Mizuki performs the NK and I claim Followed Mizuki, she went nowhere - then scum!Mizuki would know I'm not a real Follower. Possibly I could still be a protective hypoclaiming as investigative but scum would know I can't guilty them in that scenario.

This strat isn’t great because based on the one player that is on 1/5/7/11 mafia can solve the setup

Those players are meant to fakeclaim the way a VT would during the hypoclaim and pretend they are a 2/4/8/10. Post-flip of the 1/5/7/11 they might know the exact setup if they can POE the actual result of an unflipped 2/4/8/10 from amongst the hypoclaims but I think as long as everyone sticks to 2/4/8/10 it should be +EV for town

[Gamma Emerald]

Mmmkay

[ssbm_Kyouko]

All this hypoclaim business is most likely only ideal if we see VT Elim > VT NK btw. If something else happens it will need to be rethought based on the info available.

[Puffalicious]

I will have to read the setup again when I'm back on a computer. I see the players are talking about the setup and I don't understand what you guys are saying.

- A

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What are you thinking otherwise about the wagon on you at present - ignoring the setup spec?

[shaddowez]

@mod - V/LA until Monday