Mini 2320: Smuggler's Port II [Endgame]

[ssbm_Kyouko]

well well well

[ssbm_Kyouko]

*clears throat*

[ssbm_Kyouko]

>Leash everyone in game to 2 products
>leave the third product for the Tomboy Daughter to ship
>Town individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to ship
>Port Authority individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to inspect
>Expected 2.5 town per product: (10 players total -2 for PRs -2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5
>Note that if scum are eliminated D1 we move straight to their guessing game

Scenario 1: The shipment is free of tea. 2 smugglers are off shipment amongst the other (expected) 6.5 players, and scum has a 1/3.5 chance of guessing the Tomboy Daughter if we mislim on D2 from amongst the expected 6.5.

Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.

I think this produces good expected results without risking revealing the TD in any way

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I suggest the TD ships Wheat because you can't spell wheat without 'tea'

[ssbm_Kyouko]

1/64 chance of 5 Merchants randomly ending up on the same one of Linen/Copper, yes. In this case the inspection choice doesn't matter because scum either sees a full shipment or an empty one.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yes, see here:

(10 players total

-2 for PRs

-2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5

the -2 for PRs is the TD and the PA. Basically this assumes we eliminate a Merchant on D1 because otherwise we pretty quickly either win or lose depending on if we hit scum on D1 or if we hit the TD on D1

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The biggest benefits of this are:
By designating Wheat for the TD we can prevent the TD from accidentally being revealed during a shipment.
By designating Linen and Copper for everyone else and not discussing what we will ship in thread, scum have no way of trying to discern which player's shipments were not checked by the PA, which could lead scum to getting clues as to who the TD is.

This just hides the TD in the best way.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also we only need to catch 1 scum to win so if they split up there is no wifom as to whether there was 1 or 2 scum on the inspected shipment, like there would be if this was the normal wincon of eliminating

all

threats. We just have to eliminate on-shipment if it contains tea and off-shipment if it doesn't.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I used a binomial calculator to get these numbers on the probability of these shipment configurations occurring (only counting the town players because this is the POV that scum will have if we follow this strat):
0L-5C: 0.03125
1L-4C: 0.15625
2L-3C: 0.3125
3L-2C: 0.3125
4L-1C: 0.15625
5L-0C: 0.03125

Treat these configurations as distinct rather than collapsing them and consider the Linen to be inspected every time (in actuality this will be random, but you could reverse the L and C and the numbers are the same. Scum are guessing the PA from amongst the off-wagon players (the Copper number plus 2) and if they are correct they gain a nightkill to POE their TD guess down to the Copper Number (if they guess the PA then the PA is removed from the denominator and the NK removes one more, or in the case of 5-0 wagon, scum just win due to the PA guess + the TD guess).

Here are the odds of scum guessing the TD in each configuration

if we mislim on D2

, which includes their ability to POE by guessing the PA:
0L-5C: 100% (If we mislim with 5 clears it means we killed a PR so there is only 1 potential PR left for scum to guess)
1L-4C: (1/6 guess * (1/5 NK TD + (4/5 miss NK * 1/4 guess TD))) + (5/6 fail * 1/6 guess TD) = 20.5%
2L-3C: (1/5 guess * (1/4 NK TD + (3/4 miss NK * 1/3 guess TD))) + (4/5 fail * 1/5 guess TD) = 26.0%
3L-2C: (1/4 guess * (1/3 NK TD + (2/3 miss NK * 1/2 guess TD))) + (3/4 fail * 1/4 guess TD) = 35.4%
4L-1C: (1/3 guess * (1/2 NK TD + (1/2 miss NK * 1/1 guess TD))) + (2/3 fail * 1/3 guess TD) = 55.6%
5L-0C: 100% (If we mislim with 5 clears it means we killed a PR so there is only 1 potential PR left for scum to guess)

Multiply the odds of each configuration occurring by scum's chance to guess the TD and we get scum's EV in the D2 mislim scenario. Note that if we eliminate scum on D2 that they do not get to know if their PA guess was correct because we move straight to their guessing game before N2, which is when they would learn whether they guess correctly.

0L-5C: (0.03125 * 1) +
1L-4C: (0.15625 * .205) +
2L-3C: (0.3125 * .26) +
3L-2C: (0.3125 * .354) +
4L-1C: (0.15625 * .556) +
5L-0C: (0.03125 * 1) = 37.3% chance to have guessed or killed the TD by the end of D3 if we fail to eliminate scum on D1 or D2

I need to run some additional numbers on the distribution of wagons if all the townies randomly choose between all 3 products instead of between 2 - the distributions may end up being more favorable that way. I won't have time to do this until tomorrow though.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The problem is if we put a PR in top 3 it is obvious to scum, if the PA reveals the group of 5, where the PA and where the TD are. If TD is in top 3 and PA is not, PA reveals themself by flipping copper. If they're both in top 3 then that is also confirmed by flipping copper

[ssbm_Kyouko]

To me the main danger of the plan is just... the smugglers narrowing down the tomboy after a night or two of inspecting the copper and linen and seeing who's not showing up.

We dont do random shipments on D2 I think. Probably we re-send the same shipments/investigation

[ssbm_Kyouko]

>Leash everyone in game to 2 products
>leave the third product for the Tomboy Daughter to ship
>Town individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to ship
>Port Authority individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to inspect
>Expected 2.5 town per product: (10 players total -2 for PRs -2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5
>Note that if scum are eliminated D1 we move straight to their guessing game

Scenario 1: The shipment is free of tea. 2 smugglers are off shipment amongst the other (expected) 6.5 players, and scum has a 1/3.5 chance of guessing the Tomboy Daughter if we mislim on D2 from amongst the expected 6.5.

Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.

I think this produces good expected results without risking revealing the TD in any way

Did you check the first game to see what they tried before developing this?

I looked but it's 17 players and 105 pages and I don't have time to read it.

I checked the setup and it's a lot different - like people voted on what to inspect, and the PA role could veto it, it was 5 days instead of 3 before scum won, had to catch 2/3 scum instead of 1/2. A lot was different and I did not read the game, just the setup.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But alternatively, with no plan they could potentially see tea being sent in a shipment they were not a part of and narrow things down that way instead

What if both smugglers ship the third item? Serious question, I'm still on my coffee and haven't thought this setup through, maybe I'm missing something, but if they both stay off the two items that are eligible for search, then tea on the shipment would give them a PR pool.

If they both ship the third item then regardless of which of the first 2 items is inspected there will be no tea found because all of the tea (smugglers and TD) will be on the third, unsearched shipment of wheat. This puts us in a situation where the searched shipment is publicly guaranteed to contain all Merchants meaning the smugglers know none of them are TD/PA, but the merchants also now have ICs to match. Both pools get POEd if tea is not found. Even without a plan in place, both factions are going to get info for their respective POEs when the shipment is revealed.

There is an alternative of everyone (including the TD) agreeing

not

to ship a specific item, and having the PA inspect that empty shipment (this isn't explicitly prohibited in the setup but I'm not sure if it's a valid option). This will amount to a nightless game unless scum is able to guess the PA by chance, but scum autowins on D3 if we don't kill one by then. Maybe it's good to inspect an empty shipment on D1 to give no info to scum before they get a chance at guessing the PA, then on D2 we employ the strat where the TD ships wheat and the rest of us randomly ship L/C

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We are talking about 2 different plans here. In Kyouko's plan, the shipment with the tomboy daughter should not be searched

PA and TD know each other's identity but don't have communication. PA doesn't know which shipment TD is on.

In my plan the TD ships wheat and the rest of us ship L/C and the PA inspects L/C. Publicly committing to this plan gives no additional info on who the TD or PA are beyond the actual mechanical clears

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@mod 2 questions
- are we allowed to vote for no elimination?
- if the PA tries to inspect an empty shipment, will they be forced to make a different inspection instead?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The info generated should be approximately equally good because scum are looking for 1 player exactly to win (they get a bonus try at finding the TD if they find the PA though), and we are looking for one of 2 players to win. The POEd players are the same for both factions if a shipment without the TD is inspected, regardless of if the shipment contains tea.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

However, if a shipment with the TD on it is inspected it will be catastrophic for town, because town will not know whether there is scum on the shipment, but scum will know the TD is on the shipment. That's the bottom line and that's why designating one product for the TD, publicly from the beginning of the game, and furthermore not discussing who will ship what, is the safest strategy for town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Roden's plan is appealing if the TD and PA arent on the 3 person shipment but this is definitely achievable now that I think of it. I feel dumb for not seeing it before. After one elim we have 9 players left. Split the remaining 9 players in numerical order between L/C/W and the PA can inspect whatever they want to because the PA knows where they and the TD will end up.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

This guarantees 3 clears for town or it outs scum if one of them is not in the same group of 3 as either the PA or the TD, because if someone is not where they should be, they are scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And the PA never inspects themself or the TD

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I used a binomial calculator to get these numbers on the probability of these shipment configurations occurring (only counting the town players because this is the POV that scum will have if we follow this strat):
0L-5C: 0.03125
1L-4C: 0.15625
2L-3C: 0.3125
3L-2C: 0.3125
4L-1C: 0.15625
5L-0C: 0.03125

Treat these configurations as distinct rather than collapsing them and consider the Linen to be inspected every time (in actuality this will be random, but you could reverse the L and C and the numbers are the same. Scum are guessing the PA from amongst the off-wagon players (the Copper number plus 2) and if they are correct they gain a nightkill to POE their TD guess down to the Copper Number (if they guess the PA then the PA is removed from the denominator and the NK removes one more, or in the case of 5-0 wagon, scum just win due to the PA guess + the TD guess).

Here are the odds of scum guessing the TD in each configuration

if we mislim on D2

, which includes their ability to POE by guessing the PA:
0L-5C: 100% (If we mislim with 5 clears it means we killed a PR so there is only 1 potential PR left for scum to guess)
1L-4C: (1/6 guess * (1/5 NK TD + (4/5 miss NK * 1/4 guess TD))) + (5/6 fail * 1/6 guess TD) = 20.5%
2L-3C: (1/5 guess * (1/4 NK TD + (3/4 miss NK * 1/3 guess TD))) + (4/5 fail * 1/5 guess TD) = 26.0%
3L-2C: (1/4 guess * (1/3 NK TD + (2/3 miss NK * 1/2 guess TD))) + (3/4 fail * 1/4 guess TD) = 35.4%
4L-1C: (1/3 guess * (1/2 NK TD + (1/2 miss NK * 1/1 guess TD))) + (2/3 fail * 1/3 guess TD) = 55.6%
5L-0C: 100% (If we mislim with 5 clears it means we killed a PR so there is only 1 potential PR left for scum to guess)

Multiply the odds of each configuration occurring by scum's chance to guess the TD and we get scum's EV in the D2 mislim scenario. Note that if we eliminate scum on D2 that they do not get to know if their PA guess was correct because we move straight to their guessing game before N2, which is when they would learn whether they guess correctly.

0L-5C: (0.03125 * 1) +
1L-4C: (0.15625 * .205) +
2L-3C: (0.3125 * .26) +
3L-2C: (0.3125 * .354) +
4L-1C: (0.15625 * .556) +
5L-0C: (0.03125 * 1) = 37.3% chance to have guessed or killed the TD by the end of D3 if we fail to eliminate scum on D1 or D2

I need to run some additional numbers on the distribution of wagons if all the townies randomly choose between all 3 products instead of between 2 - the distributions may end up being more favorable that way. I won't have time to do this until tomorrow though.

I realized when trying to run the numbers on choosing between all 3 products, it's no longer binomial and it's been a long time since I did stats and I don't want to run all the permutations of like 0-0-5, 0-1-4, 0-2-3, 0-3-2, 0-4-1, 0-5-0, 1-0-4, 1-1-3, etc.

However, using the numbers from this post and combining with Roden's idea of triple masons and my idea of splitting the 9 living players at the end of D1 into 3 groups of 3, we can compare the 2 scenarios.

Scenario 1 [Town Random + TD Wheat]: Scum has a 37.3% chance to have guessed or killed the TD by the end of D3 if we fail to eliminate scum on D1 or D2. This is not their EV because they also autowin if we fail to eliminate scum by the end of D3.

Scenario 2 [1-3Linen 4-6Copper 7-9Wheat]: This guarantees we either enter the 3-2 scenario from above, or catch scum:
3L-2C: (1/4 guess * (1/3 NK TD + (2/3 miss NK * 1/2 guess TD))) + (3/4 fail * 1/4 guess TD) = 35.4%

So scum have slightly worse odds if we just divide up the playerlist into groups of 3 and let the PA inspect one of the shipment(s) that contains neither the PA nor the TD. Furthermore, scum cannot deviate from this plan without autolosing if they should be in the shipment that the PA decides to inspect

Scenario 2a (Player is missing): If a player is missing from where they should be, they are obviously scum and can just be killed

Scenario 2b (Tea is found): if tea is found, we have a pool of 3 guaranteed to contain 1-2 scum. Let's assume it's one scum because it's easy to see that if there are 2 scum one will be found by D3. On D2 we choose which of the 3 to eliminate and before hammering we leash the surviving POEs to ship Linen and Copper (each ships one). Everyone else ships Wheat. The PA inspects either shipment (L/C) on N2 and if they find tea on a 1p shipment, that player is scum. If they don't find tea on a 1p shipment, the other player is scum. If they inspect a shipment that has 2 players for some reason, then the person that did not obey the leash is scum.

Scenario 2c (Tea is not found): We are in the 3-2 scenario from above where scum have a:

Spoiler: math

3L-2C: (1/4 guess * (1/3 NK TD + (2/3 miss NK * 1/2 guess TD))) + (3/4 fail * 1/4 guess TD) =

35.4% chance to guess the TD

In this case (2c) the D2 shipping plan maybe should be for everyone to ship wheat and for the PA to inspect either L or C

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alive

1. Hu Tao
   
2. Roden
   
3. Dunnstral
   
4. atsi
   
5. HighPrincessErinys
   
6. SirCakez
   
7. Claptastik
   
8. Celebloki
   
9. ssbm_Kyouko
   
10. Gamma Emerald

So here's our list of 10 above. After someone dies, take me for example, re-number the list as though the dead player is gone and split the shipments as follows:

Alive after D1 elimination

1. Hu Tao
   
   
2. Roden
   
   
3. Dunnstral
   
   
4. atsi
   
   
5. HighPrincessErinys
   
   
6. SirCakez
   
   
7. Claptastik
   
   
8. Celebloki
   
   
9. Gamma Emerald

Ships Linen

Ships Copper

Ships Wheat

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We can also do it where once we think we know who we want to kill today, we can create 3 groups of 3 and then let the PA decide which to inspect independently. Creating one group of 3 just screws us over if the TD or the PA are inside.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

like create the groups and then finish hammering. And assume if there is a quickhammer or something that we go with the ordering in 76

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We can also do it where once we think we know who we want to kill today,

Do we:

Vote as usual? Risks hitting the TD, but possibility of hitting smuggler.

No eliminate?

A vanilla merchant takes the fall voluntarily to get us to three groups of three?

No elimination is a bad move, I feel. Smugglers win if both are alive on day 3.

No lim is bad yeah, I was asking about it in case it helped with Scenario 1 of [Town Random + TD Wheat], and maybe it does, but scenario 2 just feels better.

I think we vote as usual for now, maybe at some point a VT steps in and volunteers to die in place of the E-1 if one of their top townreads is about to be forced to claim. I think rather than asking for claims in this game we should ask if a VT wants to take their place, because once someone has to claim, if they are a PR, they either: (fakeclaim VT and die) (trueclaim PA and scum gets a nightkill) (trueclaim TD and we lose). TD could try fakeclaiming PA I guess but so could scum.

If every VT off the wagon says fuck you to the E-1 and they're a PR we just lose but that's unavoidable.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

atsi more like A True Smuggler In disguise as a merchant
VOTE: atsi

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think this might be close enough, admittedly I joined the atsi wagon to get some reactions. If we let discussion carry on much longer it will be hard to get more info without revealing too much about possible TD-PA pairs. In saying this I reveal my hand (I'm a Merchant), but I think we kill me and make this the 3x3 - if any of these trios contains the pair of TD and PA I would prefer the investigation order to go from the TOP DOWN (L>C>W), but that will be up to the PA in the end. Obviously if I've separated the TD and PA here then the third shipment would be inspected.

Linen: HPE, atsi, Clap
Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao


I think if we try to carry on for too long it might become apparent who could be partnered, whereas right now it seems like there are a few apparent non-pairs, and the non-pairs are useful for forming trios.

ALSO IMPORTANT: If tea is found on the shipment the morning of D2, we are guaranteed to eliminate scum using scenario 2b. We can disadvantage scum by stopping any chance they have at earning a NK if we are fast enough by speed-limming on D2. Scum have to submit their guess before EOD to get the nightkill and I think in fairness that means if an elimination is reached by majority, even if scum guesses in twilight before the flip is posted, scum would not be able to earn a NK.

The first player to join the thread on the morning of D2 should do the following: Vote one of the shipment members, and designate who should be shipping what on N2. For example, if Copper flips with tea, and Roden gets to the thread first on D2, he should, in his first post, do something like vote Gamma, leash Cakes to shipping Copper, and leash Celebloki to shipping Linen, and tell everyone else to ship Wheat. This should then be taken as law and all players should thereafter speedlim Gamma before scum have a chance to guess who the PA is. There is no way for scum to get into the thread first and abuse this - even if they tell us to speedlim town, because the scum will be caught on D3 anyways and the town player that they tell us to speedlim is guaranteed to not be either the PA or the TD, which means scum doesn't improve their chances of guessing the TD. Obviously if scum gets to thread first they'll have time to guess the PA, but if we are quick we can avoid giving them much time to consider.

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I joined the atsi wagon to get some reactions

And what did you learn?

That the 3x3 should be this:
Linen: HPE, atsi, Clap
Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh, I wasn't trying to learn anything about anyone specific, I was trying to use my towncred to see what would happen if I put an RVS-looking vote out on someone that already had some votes. atsi looked like the easiest person to get discussion around since their (pronouns not listed?) wagon already had some serious votes at the time

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Specifically I was looking for a few more anti-partnery vibes, and I'm talking about anti-TD/PA-partnery vibes, not anti-scumbuddy vibes. I've designed my pairings around those vibes and I can't get anymore specific than that, nor should we try to get any more specific now that I've volunteered to be D1ed

pedit: mechanically I've shot my shot and if we don't flip tea there are better scumhunters in the lobby than me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'll also say that if I did pair the town PRs together, PA should consider this when investigating: The 2 shipments that are not investigated become scum's POE to find you in. Dunnstral is probably the most enigmatic player in the lobby imo which is why his pool is at the bottom of the paired investigation priority. I think if he is town then it will be hard to tell if he is vanilla or PR, which means not investigating him makes it harder for you to get found by extension.

If your opinion on who is an enigma differs, maybe you switch it up and leave them uninvestigated instead

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If any group of 3 is investigated and tea flips, per scenario 2b scum cannot escape. They will get to guess the TD after they are eliminated but they will be mechanically guiltied by D3 if scenario 2b is followed:

snip

Scenario 2b (Tea is found): if tea is found, we have a pool of 3 guaranteed to contain 1-2 scum. Let's assume it's one scum because it's easy to see that if there are 2 scum one will be found by D3. On D2 we choose which of the 3 to eliminate and before hammering we leash the surviving POEs to ship Linen and Copper (each ships one). Everyone else ships Wheat. The PA inspects either shipment (L/C) on N2 and if they find tea on a 1p shipment, that player is scum. If they don't find tea on a 1p shipment, the other player is scum. If they inspect a shipment that has 2 players for some reason, then the person that did not obey the leash is scum.

snip

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You can add to scenario 2b that if they inspect an empty shipment that the player that was supposed to be on that shipment is scum. The point of mentioning the 2 player shipment is in case of the second scum from off-shipment trying to jump in with the town player that remains after the D2 elimination. If someone who was originally off-shipment jumps in to linen/copper to make it a 2p shipment, just kill the player that joined in because town has no motivation to mess with the results

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Kyouko, would you also agree then if on D2 the shipment only contains 2 people, we lim whoever is missing and leach the remaining 2 to copper and linen and proceed?

The missing player is just scum here and leashing does not matter because the game ends

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Basically, if the town PRs are not in the same group right now, and at least one scum is in the last group, we've already won (unless scum guesses the TD from amongst the 5-6 off-shipment players. 1/5 odds of guessing if one of the scum is in the last group, or 1/6 odds if both scum are paired together in a group away from the TD-PA pair

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Feels surreal to be TRed for mech talk

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oops that was for the scum PT lim me now haha

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Someone in the PT will remind Hu to shop copper dw

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Only Hu hasn't confirmed what they are shipping, Cakez also said 2 things, but I assume he knows he should do Copper.

Someone in the PT will remind Hu to shop copper dw

I just saw I have Hu Tao down for wheat with Roden and Dunn, sorry I was checked out when I made 166. I'm suspicious of 164 now, like is Celebloki trying to trick Hu Tao into shipping the wrong thing? Probably not but sus

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Wait disregard me, celebloki was talking about cakes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sorry I've been spelling it wrong Cakez

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hu tao didnt sign up for math class iirc

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Linen: HPE, atsi, Clap
Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao

Just snipping this for Hu Tao since I'm worried from the way they've confirmed what they'll ship that they are being intentionally vague about what they're agreeing to do ("the plan"). There have been 3 plans that I've thrown around toDay so just want to remind everyone it's not being done in the playerlist order

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm still here and I still want to die

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And take pagetops

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think the only way we should eliminate anyone besides me is if everyone off the eliminated player's shipment wants to eliminate that player. If we get to 4-5 off-shipment players agreeing on an elim I might move to eliminate there and take the eliminated player's shipment position

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So if a lot of these people vote atsi maybe I will

Copper: Gamma, Cakes, Celebloki
Wheat: Roden, Dunn, Hu Tao

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think Cole's town fwiw

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Cele*

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I actually agree with Hu that Cele looks scummier lately. 291 feels very much like a "don't rock the boat" type post

and he hasn't taken many harder stances this game.

This is literally pro-town in this setup

[ssbm_Kyouko]

kill me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

(in minecraft)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

illicit

Illicit? Like smuggling???

[ssbm_Kyouko]

That's the joke

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Taking stances makes it easier to find the TD, so they shouldn't start being taken until D2 if and only if no tea is found, because finding tea on D2 is a mechanical scum-kill, which leads to a town win if and only if scum can't guess who the TD is. So if we can just win without giving hints about the TD, we should

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also, in case people not voting me are doing so because they think I might be gambiting as PR - I'm not.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

any lolhammerers? I could still be scum gambiting, you never know

[ssbm_Kyouko]

fuck i was TD

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Excellent mech-play, Kyuoko!

This game is a variant of Assassins in the Palace, which is a very atypical version of Mafia and is rather polarizing, but it does have a special place in my heart! Town was able to come up with a strong mech-solve and clinch the game. Very straightforward and well done!

The image is one I had commissioned for the first iteration of the game, and I think it is fantastic.

Thank you, but at the same time sorry, both to you and the rest of the players - I'm always thinking about the ideal way to play in open/semi-open setups when I play them, but I've never actually "broken" one before and I feel guilty that it (most likely) reduced the overall enjoyment everyone, including you as the mod, got out of the game.

I didn't really think of the implications of breaking the setup until after it had been done and I felt bad about it afterward.