Toriel's Patience (end)

[Dannflor]

It feels like you're complaining that you're not my #1 townread but you're basically my #2 townread behind Sakura and I don't know exactly why you're complaining about that.

yeah sorry

I think I have been especially ticked off lately by kinda nebulous "well he could be a deepwolf" reads. I responded pretty uncharitably to a similar push by Bingle earlier in the game. and the "well he could just be scum playing well" I think hit me in a similar spot

I'm gonna try to reset and come back to the thread. I'll try to engage your sakura case thoroughly

[implosion]

I guess right now I'm trying to conceptualize what the world looks like to me if Bingle is town. I'm definitely letting confirmation bias seep in pretty hard.

Ydrasse could be scum who either (1) was planning on unvoting at some point all along or (2) was resigned to lose and now thinks she has a shot. RCE could be scum in theory but that'd be kind of iffy. Them both being scum would be buck wild. They could both be town, and Dannflor could be posturing scum who's never actually going to hammer bingle. Idk. All of those possibilities feel pretty weak to me.

i am curious how other people feel about what i laid out with regards to how yesterday/today/tomorrow need to be conceptualized differently from each other. Essentially an open question to everyone, how exactly do you conceptualize the Bingle wagon today as making sense, and what are your implications on other people's alignments, if Bingle is town? What about if Bingle is scum?

[Dannflor]

I think this is a good time to ask ourselves if Dannflor is a deepwolf

i miss mandate

[Dannflor]

i am curious how other people feel about what i laid out with regards to how yesterday/today/tomorrow need to be conceptualized differently from each other. Essentially an open question to everyone, how exactly do you conceptualize the Bingle wagon today as making sense, and what are your implications on other people's alignments, if Bingle is town? What about if Bingle is scum?

I mean I think it's exactly you/sakura/shirou if bingle is town and I admit I've let that world view kinda settle in maybe more than I should have

The world where one or both of RCE/ydrasse are WIFOMing the heck out of the day like technically exists, but only if they think the game is so far out of their control that this is the best path to victory they have. I'm not sure what third team mate they could have that would make that world make sense.

if bingle is scum and I am a gigantic fool, I'm not really sure yet and I think it's a world I should be considering more. I think I mostly agree that scum are going to be aware of how they look optically and preparing for tomorrow, in which case I would likely imagine that at least one scum is off wagon and only one of RCE/ydrasse would be scum

[Dannflor]

I feel like I need to know what Shirou's stances are right now to have the best picture of the game to be honest

[Sakura Hana]

if Bingle is town? What about if Bingle is scum?

I feel like maybe i've been fallen into a deep hole due to the way Dannflor has treated me this entire game making me think he's scum angling for a win while reducing the ammount of towniness i can radiate, examples of this is him literally parroting Meuh's reasons for scumreading me.
How does this relate to Bingle?
Well if Dann is scum then Bingle HAS to be scum unless Dann was gambiting and hoping Bingle doesnt get hammered after pushing him hard.
Bingle himself is a hard read for me, i thought he was kind of eh, at first, maybe a little town, but him angling to diminish my actions from yday while making his seem like had more impact (idk what the word for that would be) felt a little sus for me.
Either way, if Bingle is scum, then clearly there's already 1 scum voting for himself, which means he just needs 3 instead of 4 townies voting for himself, not impossible, but the moment i voted for myself he started trying to convince me to vote for him instead, which means if you're town, then there's already another scum voting for him either RCE or Yddra.
If Bingle is town then......

gasp

I guess Bingle is scum then.

[Sakura Hana]

I guess Scum!Dann campainging for Town!Bingle to be spared without him voting him and praying he doesnt get hammered while pretending to wanting to hammer is not out of the picture, but if so... damn i wish i had hammered instead.
Which i guess Dann knowing my stances was probably convinced i wasnt gonna do it.

[Dannflor]

Well if Dann is scum then Bingle HAS to be scum unless Dann was gambiting and hoping Bingle doesnt get hammered after pushing him hard.

idk i guess if im scum with bingle why don't i just push for myself instead

i mean i guess i haven't specifically checked this but i don't think bingle and i looked especially paired before i started hard pushing for his spare

[Dannflor]

ok im actually going to take a break from the thread now and try to read through with fresh eyes

[Sakura Hana]

Well if Dann is scum then Bingle HAS to be scum unless Dann was gambiting and hoping Bingle doesnt get hammered after pushing him hard.

idk i guess if im scum with bingle why don't i just push for myself instead

i mean i guess i haven't specifically checked this but i don't think bingle and i looked especially paired before i started hard pushing for his spare

This is a good point actually... dammit

[Sakura Hana]

I guess...
Maybe this game's easier than i thought if scum is just not posting much or at all and are resigned.
Or scum!Bingle was just counting on Dann pushing for him and then get a partner to capitalize on it.
Either way seems like it was a good idea to stop the wagon.

[Sakura Hana]

Nvm I did it
the pool is just bingle/dann/Sakura/myself and town wins in whatever combination

Can’t kill us all.

thonking

[Sakura Hana]

Can’t kill us all.

Can't kill anyone, I'm the game winning spare.

thonking x2

[implosion]

Well if Dann is scum then Bingle HAS to be scum unless Dann was gambiting and hoping Bingle doesnt get hammered after pushing him hard.

Agreed. Actually, this can and should be taken a step further: the contrapositive of "if dann is scum then bingle is scum" is "if bingle is town then dann is town".

So basically, and I'm gonna bold this one for emphasis,

unless people think Dann might have made 4071 as scum with Bingle as town

(which I think would happen like, approximately absolutely never)

we should spare Dann over Bingle

.

[implosion]

("spare dann over bingle" meaning that if we want to spare bingle, instead, we should spare dann. though i still may want sakura! or myself obviously but it sounds like i'm not super viable atm)

[implosion]

Well I guess Dann can make that post and then shoot bingle but bingle is alive so lol

[Sakura Hana]

Well I guess Dann can make that post and then shoot bingle but bingle is alive so lol

You say this as if Dann had any option other than Kyoko in that scenario.

[implosion]

I mean I think it's exactly you/sakura/shirou if bingle is town and I admit I've let that world view kinda settle in maybe more than I should have

The world where one or both of RCE/ydrasse are WIFOMing the heck out of the day like technically exists, but only if they think the game is so far out of their control that this is the best path to victory they have. I'm not sure what third team mate they could have that would make that world make sense.

So I guess imagine that today ends in something like a 4-3 split in votes. Like, two people get to 3 votes and someone hammers a wagon. The hammered wagon flips scum. Scum then shoot the other wagonee, confirming them as town (this is not guaranteed to happen but I think is quite likely if this is how today plays out). There are strictly 3 possibilities:

1) the scum were all piled on their own wagon: the scum wagon was 3 scum 1 town, the town wagon was 3 town.
2) the scum were split naturally: the scum wagon was 2 scum 2 town, the town wagon was 1 scum 2 town.
3) the scum managed a bit of a coup: the scum wagon was 1 scum 3 town, the town wagon was 2 scum 1 town.

This is of course putting the cart before the horse because the day might not end this way and if it does then me making this post could influence things, blah blah i don't care.

I think possibility 3) ought to be discounted just because we as town have to back ourselves to have better collective reads than that.

Possibility 1) is, i suspect, terrifying for scum. Because they need to convince town tomorrow to spare someone who voted for scum today.

That leaves 2). And 2) is, I think, the natural thing scum would aim for today. But that does necessitate some scum voting for town at some point. Maybe they wouldn't be inclined to do so early.

[implosion]

Well I guess Dann can make that post and then shoot bingle but bingle is alive so lol

You say this as if Dann had any option other than Kyoko in that scenario.

If dann is scum, and yesterday dann thought kyouko was so guaranteed to be spared today that dann would be obligated to shoot kyouko, then dann would never make 4071 because Dann is both (1) sealing his fate that he will be pretty hard obligated to vote bingle today and (2) sealing his fate that he's making what will probably be, to some of the town, a convincing town case on bingle. It's just so, unnecessarily, brutally committal of a post for scum to make in that situation.

[implosion]

I do think dann could be scum with bingle though in principle. Yeah, "why doesn't dann advocate for himself instead of bingle", sure, but scum needs to pick some tact and all of them look kinda bad yesterday in most worlds i think.

Also I do still just think dann is probably town and increasingly I am confirmation biasing myself to think that the 3 of us are just all town

[Dannflor]

VOTE: dannflor

[RCEnigma]

What are we doinggggggg.

[RCEnigma]

If bingle were scum the exact team would have to be bingle + me + Ydrasse… or he’d have been hammered.

[RCEnigma]

I don’t want to hear any arguments about posturing or angling for the future, scum NEED a scum flip today and there isn’t a way around that. You just flip your partner and try to figure out how to spin it later.

[Dannflor]

shirou has not been to the thread yet