open 894: near vanilla (game over)

[Titus]

It's not strategically wise to out I am the jailkeeper so early in the day, even if you are scum, as it cuts off some conversations. I've always like to drop mid day. Hell, K hasn't even posted.

Yet, dragging you along like a sick puppy to the vet isn't humane.

As long as we can keep the doctor hidden, then it's a strong move. If you are scum, it's 100% correct to happen today as every nightkill would clear someone.

I do have crumbs where I was trying to tell some but not others today.

You may be town. I feel for you if you are.

[OutWorldER]

Okay I was going to type up a wall but with the hard-claim JK I don't think I have the power to really affect the lim at this point. I also have this problem with typing walls where I continuously readjust whatever theory I have until my wall is just word salad so fuck it.

I kind of think outing it this early is a mistake but I guess you also just like, can't die. Iffy on taking a 50/50 chance that it was the JK that stopped the kill and not Doc healing correctly, but eh.

However, I will still say this: Regardless of T3's alignment, I think Project has to be scum here. Project being scum perfectly answers T3's question he's asked to me ("Why don't me and Black just vote Skygazer if we're partnered" because drawing attention to Skygazer also puts the spotlight back on the person originally driving the vote, Project), and I think Project is scummy on his own merits after reading back. He barely interacts with either Black or T3, only interacts with Titus's case on T3 to call it bad while never saying anything substantial about T3 throughout the entire game, and I think his interactions with Black (which, he stops after the first few pages) could very easily be theater. I think Project being scum here also answers one of the burning questions I had ("Why does Black get off the T3 wagon if he's a mislim?" and the answer is it would make both Black and Project look good if T3 flipped town and allow them to flip either Skygazer or Titus, likely Skygazer, without drawing too much suspicion back).

I ended up writing a wall anyways gdi.

[OutWorldER]

Like I think the observation that Dann had back when the wagon shifted off Kurtapika to T3 about the gamestate being stalled probably still holds true. That same observation also holds true for T3 here and it's tempting me away from the T3 lim here (I also just want to scrutinize the read a bit more thoroughly as a gesture of good faith to T3). That the first proper counter-wagon of the game, Skygazer, happened to be Project's tunnel target is selling me further on Project scum here.

[Titus]

At least let's make it as painless as possible for T3. Give him what he needs to put a final guess, if he wants.

I'll look at ProjEctRy with fresh eyes tmo.

I'll be up for a bit as the incomptent front desk man checked in someone to my room. Quite the scare.

[Bellaphant]

searching through mod VCs bellaphant had a 3-vote wagon for one VC so i think we need more heat

and not involve ourselves in silly tunnels

idk who kurta is i would assume a lurker since i cant remember off the top of my head

? This was basically rvs? Is this is the best thing you've got, I'm really surprised

@titus, to clarify, you targeted T3?

[Bellaphant]

Project being scum is 100% a valid read

[Titus]

@Bella, yes.

Please do continue discussing ProjEctRy. I'm not going to contribute much tonight as I got a hell of a shock.

[Bellaphant]

Are you ok?

[Titus]

Yes. Hotel clerk fucked up a check in so a man accidentally barged into my room.

[Bellaphant]

Projectry, do you have any scum reads outside of Skygazer?

Yes I have, but they’re weak. They are:

T3 - I was initially suspicious of T3 as per my post at 76. At 113 I noted I was likely to place my vote on T3. I never got to that because I wanted to hear more from T3, but then he went VLA, so that thought was placed on hold.

Kurtapika - Peaked my interest with his town read on you at 60. By that point I didn’t feel the read was justified. See my posts 144 and 249.

Then I was concerned with his position regarding a purely random elimination of low contribution. See my posts 337 and 527. I’ve since distinguished the difference between this and my position with Sky.

Bella - I was suspicious of Bella ruling out Titus at 207. See my posts 251 and 364.

My suspicions are admittedly weak, but being new I’ve found it difficult to develop my reads. There has been a lot of content the past couple of days and I’ve found it difficult to analyse it all. Some of the analysis others make I just think I’m not capable of doing so myself at this stage. Then today I’ve been involved with Sky so I haven’t really been able to further analysis my other leads.

I've got to here in his iso, so he starts off shading T3 but not committing to a vote and then accepting blacks weak tr and drops it, gets weird about dann, spends a bit of time talking to me about the fact I wouldn't lim you, discusses limminh a low info slot, spends a /lot/ of time arguing with skygazer (a low info slot) and then this, whjch is t3 is scum is actually rule of three? Also, he's just mentioning people that got wagonned?

P-edit *hugs*

[Bellaphant]

Then there's just lots of shade at you, and then a bit more at me. It's also interesting who he talks to/about, because you, Dan and me come up a bit.

[Bellaphant]

Qnd T3, kurp, black and skygazer. I dunno, maybe that in itself isn't telling, but it feels weird.

[Afrayed Knott]

UNVOTE:

well there goes my thought on who the JK was. I thought it was Ower.

And T3 sounds like an upset townie, very much so,

that leaves for me Project and Shaddow, and an outside edge to Sky, unless we get a counter to the claim.

[Bellaphant]

? Titus is claiming they targeted T3: do you believe he was the scum nk target?

[Bellaphant]

Or there was a doc save and Titus doesn't matter?

[Afrayed Knott]

? Titus is claiming they targeted T3: do you believe he was the scum nk target?

I see that, and I can't speculate on that other than its a possibility. but my unvote has nothing to do with that and more to do with his outburst

[Afrayed Knott]

here are some thoughts I jotted down after D1 and a read through of Black's statements. As I have said she did defend Kurt and Project a lot, more so than T3. Which I know has already been picked over. But it is the whole hammer on T3, she states intent and states that "If this flips town I'm death tunnelling Titus tomorrow", then almost as an after thought "If this flips scum Titus is town". Which I know Dann has spoken about. To me that sounds like she knew T3 would flip town and she was trying to pocket Titus for today. Okay on the other hand it could be said if T3 flips red it would give her town cred, but after his outburst I am not so sure.

as for the doc save, would the doc have saved T3? personally I don't think so, in the same way I don't think T3 would have been targeted by scum if he is town, both thoughts are based on the way D1 went and the suspicion surrounding T3 then and now.

[Afrayed Knott]

To me that sounds like she knew T3 would flip town and she was trying to

pocket

Titus for today

EBWOP "set up"

[T3]

T3,

I wanted to be wrong on you when I jailed you. Maybe I am. Even if I am, a town!you guarantees that the doctor got a successful save. That still makes you the best mechanical lim. We wouldn't have a slot in elo that had a staunchly similar wagon to the flipped scum and has bad associations with Black.

I selected you because I wanted to prove my theory wrong. It is still possible camel is scum instead of you as Black doesn't have enough interactions there. However, in this setup, I feel the towniest scum should go for the kill to avoid a jailkeeper.

In my mind, you are universally townier than K. You'd go for the kill in a T3 and K scumteam. Is it a bit of wifom. Sure. But I was praying for evidence to be wrong. If a kill had gone through last night, it would be evidence to suggest my theory was wrong. Who'd send a lurker that was almost replaced to do a scum kill? That would be unlikely. So I'd tear apart the VCs looking for a difference.

When I saw that no kill, I tried to hurry people to make it as painless as possible while not leading people too harshly. Was I insane to jail you? The answers were a resounding no.

That leaves me backed into a corner. My deductions suggest you should flip, the VCs suggest you're scum, the PoE suggests you're one of the few viable suspects left.

I feel a certain amount of empathy for you being stacked with this much evidence against you. That's why I want you to challenge me. That's because, if you are town, you have no problem telling me precisely where I am wrong.

I didn't write that wall in post 1400 on the early Black posting for my own ego. I wrote it because I feel a kinship with Black. I see myself in her, which I am well aware it can lead to a blind spot.

The bad behaviors you see come from when I feel ignored. When the scum treat me like a human being and town don't, it's easy to get the two backwards and tunnel on town who think I'm an idiot for not seeing things their way.

I will likely be in this game for a long time, and that includes having better listening skills. If you are town, I want to hear from you as much as I can.

It would be disingenuous to say you weren't the best lim by VCA, by Black's flips and by strategy though.

Yeah no shit Titus, when I read in the night I knew you were Jailkeeper from 21.
Ffs.

[ProjEctRy]

Will pick back up tomorrow and review in more detail, particularly the Titus claim, but from a quick scan there’s a lot of speculation around me being Black’s scum partner.

Do people really think it’s more likely I’m Black’s partner rather than that I was likely pocketed (I think that’s the correct term)?

I realise now that Black was complementing me and overly defending me to pocket me. I’d presume it’s much easier / more common to pocket a newbie as well?

[Afrayed Knott]

Will pick back up tomorrow and review in more detail, particularly the Titus claim, but from a quick scan there’s a lot of speculation around me being Black’s scum partner.

Do people really think it’s more likely I’m Black’s partner rather than that I was likely pocketed (I think that’s the correct term)?

I realise now that Black was complementing me and overly defending me to pocket me. I’d presume it’s much easier / more common to pocket a newbie as well?

Or there’s the other way of looking at it.

@Titus, can you run through again why you feel Project is town?

[T3]

The only world in which Titus actually has a guilty on me is if I both somehow don’t know that she is Jailkeeper and my partner is exactly Kurta.

[Skygazer]

The only world in which Titus actually has a guilty on me is if I both somehow don’t know that she is Jailkeeper and my partner is exactly Kurta.

?? did you spot a crumb yesterday?

[Skygazer]

this probably doesn't need to be said but i spotted the crumbing from today and that was a big factor in my T3 read

[T3]

The only world in which Titus actually has a guilty on me is if I both somehow don’t know that she is Jailkeeper and my partner is exactly Kurta.

?? did you spot a crumb yesterday?

No, last night.