open 896: describing conker (game over)

[OopsieDaisy]

I'm feeling because voting in the small hood and the flip being town is way less punishing than voting in the big hood and the flip being town.

Why do you say this?

Because I don't have that much confidence in my reads right now so I wanna plan for worst-case scenario rather than binking it into the big hood based on a read that very easily could just be me being biased cause I know I'm town and someone's pushing me for reasons that I don't feel add up.

[OopsieDaisy]

Also remember when Fire said that the chance of me getting ran up today was small and so my unvote made sense as mafia because of that.

lmao.

[Elements]

I'm feeling because voting in the small hood and the flip being town is way less punishing than voting in the big hood and the flip being town.

Why do you say this?

Because I don't have that much confidence in my reads right now so I wanna plan for worst-case scenario rather than binking it into the big hood based on a read that very easily could just be me being biased cause I know I'm town and someone's pushing me for reasons that I don't feel add up.

so you think voting in the small hood is mechanically better because you're not sure on your reads?

[Meuh]

UNVOTE:

[Elements]

UNVOTE:

why?

[Meuh]

E-1 scary

[Elements]

E-1 scary

who do you think is going to hammer without intent?

[Meuh]

Idk but it's a possibility

[Meuh]

Perhaps someone wouldn't check the votecount to see it was E-1 beforehand (cough cough)

[Elements]

I'm already on the wagon so that's a non issue

[fireisredsir]

The issue is I don't know how to solve Fire because he's mostly just been pushing me in recent pages and I don't know how to separate my bias from just objectively analysing the push. It's completely broke my brain lol. Like I think the push is just a bit shit and uses one mid read of mine to justify continuing to sit on me for the entire game, but it doesn't look like anyone in the game actually agrees with me on this so is it just bias?

sorry

im not like super confident so im trying to give you some space to do other things to see what happens

i was feeling like the back and forth wasn't very productive, and im aware you said you don't do well as town under pressure so it's probably not the best sorting tool

it's probably unfair of me to pick on one specific moment but i haven't really seen other things from the big hood that have jumped out to me as scum-indicative

[OopsieDaisy]

I'm feeling because voting in the small hood and the flip being town is way less punishing than voting in the big hood and the flip being town.

Why do you say this?

Because I don't have that much confidence in my reads right now so I wanna plan for worst-case scenario rather than binking it into the big hood based on a read that very easily could just be me being biased cause I know I'm town and someone's pushing me for reasons that I don't feel add up.

so you think voting in the small hood is mechanically better because you're not sure on your reads?

yea. lemme try and explain.

big hood: 1/6 chance win the game, 5/6 chance you don't and you're hoping the person you're voting out has good associatives from the small hood to read off of so the flip is useful for town. i don't think fire's interactions with the small hood members tell us all that much about them so if fire is town the flip is rubbish.

small hood: 1/3 chance get a mafia out, 2/3 chance you don't. same thing about associatives exist BUT you then get a 50/50 between two players for a mafia and p much a guaranteed path to a final 3 still if we wanna take it.

i think the risk is too high voting in the big hood considering i've had reasons to townread everyone bar fire and whilst i don't like fire's push at all, the small hood associatives don't rly exist. hence, yea i'd rather vote in the small hood.

[fireisredsir]

UNVOTE:

don't really like how this wagon has developed. ill be back later

[Black]

Elements you seem kinda eager to fade someone

[Black]

I didn't realize I was putting Daisy to e-1 there. I haven't really felt like playing today

[Black]

VOTE: Fire

Kinda just want to do this

I would be ok with an Elements or Ydra wagon too. Maybe Meuh but her AtE kinda turned me off from going there

[Elements]

I dispise this

big hood: 1/6 chance win the game, 5/6 chance you don't and you're hoping the person you're voting out has good associatives from the small hood to read off of so the flip is useful for town. i don't think fire's interactions with the small hood members tell us all that much about them so if fire is town the flip is rubbish.

There's no hoping someone has good assosiatives when you flip them. If you consider a town flip you can see how good the associatives are before the flip. If fire is town you can see who voted and why as with any flip.

small hood: 1/3 chance get a mafia out, 2/3 chance you don't. same thing about associatives exist BUT you then get a 50/50 between two players for a mafia and p much a guaranteed path to a final 3 still if we wanna take it.

The small hood is always a final 3, the longer all its members stay alive the easier it should be to solve. Limming in the small hood day 1 is a waste of a lim imo.
If you take the path of just voting out small hood members you end up in a final 3 the red team have crafted with night kills to give them the best chance of winning. The moment we start killing in the big hood they lose agency over

i think the risk is too high voting in the big hood considering i've had reasons to townread everyone bar fire and whilst i don't like fire's push at all, the small hood associatives don't rly exist. hence, yea i'd rather vote in the small hood.

What is this risk you keep talking about?
That we flip a town day 1? That is always the most likely outcome.

[Elements]

Elements you seem kinda eager to fade someone

Do I? Or do I just seem like I like e-1s?

[Meuh]

A change from Daisy to Fire feels odd considering their positions relative to each other

[Black]

A change from Daisy to Fire feels odd considering their positions relative to each other

Ngl I've just been skimming stuff today so I don't know what you mean here. Can you go into it more?

[Elements]

A change from Daisy to Fire feels odd considering their positions relative to each other

Ngl I've just been skimming stuff today so I don't know what you mean here. Can you go into it more?

the stances seem to be
Daisy: I have reason to think everyone in the big hood is town, except fire, but idk if i think fire is red
Fire: I pushed Daisy but I want to let her do stuff to see if that changes my read coz I'm not that confident

[OopsieDaisy]

I dispise this

big hood: 1/6 chance win the game, 5/6 chance you don't and you're hoping the person you're voting out has good associatives from the small hood to read off of so the flip is useful for town. i don't think fire's interactions with the small hood members tell us all that much about them so if fire is town the flip is rubbish.

There's no hoping someone has good assosiatives when you flip them. If you consider a town flip you can see how good the associatives are before the flip. If fire is town you can see who voted and why as with any flip.

small hood: 1/3 chance get a mafia out, 2/3 chance you don't. same thing about associatives exist BUT you then get a 50/50 between two players for a mafia and p much a guaranteed path to a final 3 still if we wanna take it.

The small hood is always a final 3, the longer all its members stay alive the easier it should be to solve. Limming in the small hood day 1 is a waste of a lim imo.
If you take the path of just voting out small hood members you end up in a final 3 the red team have crafted with night kills to give them the best chance of winning. The moment we start killing in the big hood they lose agency over

i think the risk is too high voting in the big hood considering i've had reasons to townread everyone bar fire and whilst i don't like fire's push at all, the small hood associatives don't rly exist. hence, yea i'd rather vote in the small hood.

What is this risk you keep talking about?
That we flip a town day 1? That is always the most likely outcome.

Okie lets answer this:

1) El you can read. "i don't think fire's interactions with the small hood members tell us all that much about them so if fire is town the flip is rubbish". I can see Fire's associatives aren't useful pre-flip, hence why I'm not pushing for the lim.

2) That path to a red-decided final 3 only exists if town misvotes in the small hood twice. Even if that happens, you can analyse the previous days to see who was happy to let those misvotes happen. Town have a lot of good stuff to work with there and that's after two misvotes.

3) See numby 1. The risk is we flip a town day 1 with useless associatives. A Fire flip tells us nothing about the players in the small hood.

[Elements]

Okie lets answer this:

1) El you can read. "i don't think fire's interactions with the small hood members tell us all that much about them so if fire is town the flip is rubbish". I can see Fire's associatives aren't useful pre-flip, hence why I'm not pushing for the lim.

2) That path to a red-decided final 3 only exists if town misvotes in the small hood twice. Even if that happens, you can analyse the previous days to see who was happy to let those misvotes happen. Town have a lot of good stuff to work with there and that's after two misvotes.

3) See numby 1. The risk is we flip a town day 1 with useless associatives. A Fire flip tells us nothing about the players in the small hood.

1`- then don't lim fire? or ask fire questions to get him to have associative like "what do you think of x?" "who is most likely red?"

2 - and the red team will keep alive the town that were happy to let the misvotes happen

3 - it's not a risk because we choose who we flip, so we pick someone that has associatives

[Elements]

For someone that doesn't have any red reads in the big hood and is agonising over fire you haven't asked fire a single quesiton have you?

[OopsieDaisy]

Yea but I don't wanna flip anyone other than Fire in the big hood cause right now I just think Fire's the scum in that group.

2 is fair but surely that can be read into too? If someone has managed to position themselves perfectly and then survives the night that raises eyebrows too.

Who do you think has good associatives with the small hood that we should flip El?