Night Watch Open 95 - Game Over before 703

bionicchop2 · Post Post #675 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 2:14 pm

The only question is if he actually hid or not. On the drive home I was thinking he may have WIFOM'd. By declaring he would definitively hide and who he would hide behind he forced the scum's hand (I thought). I guess he could have not hidden - in which case I would vote Crazy.

If he hid, this game is a slam dunk.

ortolan · Post Post #676 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 2:18 pm

I was pretty sure afatchic WIFOM'ed and was intending to hide behind someone else, or not hide at all.

Thus I'm pretty sure because the mafia didn't target Crazy this points to him being mafia, but I would like to hear from afatchic first.

ortolan · Post Post #677 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 2:20 pm

(If he did hide then the scum is camn and bionicchop2, which is worrying for my playing ability as I've been reading town on bionicchop2 so far)

afatchic · Post Post #678 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 4:45 pm

Well, for the mafia to let me get a clear would be dumb. so the only thing i can think of is that crazy is mafia and therefore that is the reason she was not killed last night. and one of the two that pointed out that i probably didn't hide is her partner. and no i didn't hide. but last night the mafia didn't know that, and if crazy is town, then they would have screwed up terrible to not kill her and try for the double kill. can anyone explain any other reason to me why crazy would not have been shot?

Vote Crazy

ortolan · Post Post #679 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 5:15 pm

it is possible if the mafia was *really* intelligent they would have avoided killing Crazy as town just to avoid narrowing the field of uncleared (even though they'd get a double kill on you out of it also). I haven't thought about it properly to work out if doing this would even be to their benefit (in fact in this scenario, if Crazy was town, they must have known that if you hid behind him and didn't die, you would just clear him tomorrow anyway which would have the effect of narrowing the field anyway).

Logical conclusion: Crazy is definitely scum

Vote: Crazy

ortolan · Post Post #680 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 5:15 pm

(and camn is last scum)

afatchic · Post Post #681 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 5:26 pm

ortolan wrote:it is possible if the mafia was *really* intelligent they would have avoided killing Crazy as town just to avoid narrowing the field of uncleared (even though they'd get a double kill on you out of it also). I haven't thought about it properly to work out if doing this would even be to their benefit (in fact in this scenario, if Crazy was town, they must have known that if you hid behind him and didn't die, you would just clear him tomorrow anyway which would have the effect of narrowing the field anyway).

Logical conclusion: Crazy is definitely scum

Vote: Crazy

If crazy is town, and i was able to clear him, then it would be a guaranteed win for the town. there would be no way we could lose, which is why the scum would have had to go for the double kill.

bionicchop2 · Post Post #682 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 5:28 pm

unvote camn,vote crazy

I can't see a reason they wouldn't target him (hence the surprise to start the day).

I still think camn is partner. If crazy is scum, at least one town figured out you probably WIFOM'd, so not sure why you make the conclusion one of Ort/myself has to be a partner.

bionicchop2 · Post Post #683 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 5:31 pm

That is L-1. Hold the hammer. I was reading on my phone and missed Ort's vote. Thought I accidentally hammered.

afatchic · Post Post #684 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 5:31 pm

Forgot how many we have, so that might have been the hammer, but if Crazy is scum, i will try to random hide who i think is town and try to clear one more tonight. however i won't be announcing this time.

bionicchop2 · Post Post #685 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 5:38 pm

we should have 7 left. the problem is that if you die tonight, we don't know who you hid behind. if crazy is scum, that leaves 1 scum and 4 town if a double death at night (effectively lylo). I would prefer you just hide behind me and let the town lynch camn tomorrow.

or don't hide, we lynch camn, then if needed Ort and I can slug it out at end game.

afatchic · Post Post #686 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 5:48 pm

@bio-why would you prefer i hide behind you?

Uncleared:
Bionicchop2
Camn
Ortolan

5 left. hopefully 1 scum vs. 4 townies. which leaves 1 mislynch.
or i can random visit tonight, and hopefully find townie, which leaves: 2 uncleared and 3 cleared, with a mislynch= win.

or we can decide who i should hide behind as a town, so its double kill either way. but if its a random kill plus my death then its going to be obvious who the last scum is.

or i can no hide, which results in my death tonight. and hopefully the town can pull it out.

bionicchop2 · Post Post #687 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 5:54 pm

I said to hide behind me because it is better than hiding unannounced. I would vote for a no hide tonight.

afatchic · Post Post #688 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:09 pm

bionicchop2 wrote:I said to hide behind me because it is better than hiding unannounced. I would vote for a no hide tonight.

how would that be better than an unannounced hide?

orangepenguin · Post Post #689 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:18 pm

I have a bad feeling about bio..

afatchic · Post Post #690 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 6:19 pm

Unvote

i still think crazy is scum, but i don't want a lynch before everyone checks in.

bionicchop2 · Post Post #691 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:04 pm

afatchic wrote:
bionicchop2 wrote:I said to hide behind me because it is better than hiding unannounced. I would vote for a no hide tonight.
how would that be better than an unannounced hide?

If you die unannounced, we gain nothing and we don't get to have a mislynch. If you hide behind me and we both die, you eliminate a suspect.

bionicchop2 · Post Post #692 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:04 pm

orangepenguin wrote:I have a bad feeling about bio..

I have a good feeling about bio...

afatchic · Post Post #693 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:08 pm

bionicchop2 wrote:
afatchic wrote:
bionicchop2 wrote:I said to hide behind me because it is better than hiding unannounced. I would vote for a no hide tonight.
how would that be better than an unannounced hide?
If you die unannounced, we gain nothing and we don't get to have a mislynch. If you hide behind me and we both die, you eliminate a suspect.

I eliminate a suspect.... WHO WOULD THEN BE DEAD LOL.
now how does that seem helpful? we trade our mislynch in order to eliminate a suspect?

icemanE · Post Post #694 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:12 pm

Here's the thing:

This is all hinging on crazy being scum. Here is what I propose:

If crazy IS scum, fat hides behind bio. If bio is scum, we win. If he's not, we have a good chance of winning the next day.

If crazy ISN'T scum, fat hides behind another one of the unconfirmed, whomever he chooses. At this stage I don't know why it wouldn't make sense not to hide - and fat hiding unannounced (since he'll most likely be the NK anyways) means the scum won't know what to expect.

If there's a hole in this plan (which I don't doubt that there is), inform me.

Gently, I'm so sensitive...

bionicchop2 · Post Post #695 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:16 pm

afatchic wrote:
bionicchop2 wrote:
afatchic wrote:
bionicchop2 wrote:I said to hide behind me because it is better than hiding unannounced. I would vote for a no hide tonight.
how would that be better than an unannounced hide?
If you die unannounced, we gain nothing and we don't get to have a mislynch. If you hide behind me and we both die, you eliminate a suspect.
I eliminate a suspect.... WHO WOULD THEN BE DEAD LOL.
now how does that seem helpful? we trade our mislynch in order to eliminate a suspect?

IF YOU HIDE UNANNOUNCED AND DIE WE HAVE THE SAME SUSPECTS AND 2 DEATHS.

Then we have 3 UNCLEARED players alive and ONE LYNCH to use.

If you die and I die, there are 2 UNCLEARED with ONE LYNCH.

It is simple end game logic and I can't comprehend why it isn't this clear to everybody.

If you don't hide, then we have 3 uncleared with 2 lynches to use (my preference).

What doesn't make sense about that? Do I need to make a list of all players in all 3 scenarios with players crossed out to make it clearer?

bionicchop2 · Post Post #696 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:20 pm

icemanE wrote:Here's the thing:

This is all hinging on crazy being scum. Here is what I propose:

If crazy IS scum, fat hides behind bio. If bio is scum, we win. If he's not, we have a good chance of winning the next day.

If crazy ISN'T scum, fat hides behind another one of the unconfirmed, whomever he chooses. At this stage I don't know why it wouldn't make sense not to hide - and fat hiding unannounced (since he'll most likely be the NK anyways) means the scum won't know what to expect.

If there's a hole in this plan (which I don't doubt that there is), inform me.
Gently, I'm so sensitive...

HOLE: crazy turns town (2 scum 4 town left). afatchic doesn't announce hide (or announces - doesn't matter). afatchic dies (2 scum 3 town). scum kills any player (2 scum 2 town). Scum win before day fall if there is a double kill at night and crazy is town.

If crazy is town, afatchic cannot hide

.

The rest of your post I am fine with. If crazy is scum, hide behind me. Please promise you strongly consider lynching camn tomorrow if that is the case.

bionicchop2 · Post Post #697 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:32 pm

[quote="crazy scum, afatchic hides without announcing, afatchic dies]

afatchic

bionicchop2
camn

icemanE

orangepenguin
ortolan[/quote]

icemanE and OP are interchangeable here as confirmed town. Left with 4 players. 1 scum, 3 town, 3 suspects. 33% chance of lynching scum randomly. One lynch to use before game ends.

[quote="crazy scum, afatchic doesn't hide]

afatchic

bionicchop2
camn
icemanE
orangepenguin
ortolan[/quote]

Let's assume afatchic gets killed in this scenario, but any of the cleared could be killed. 1 scum left. 4 town. 3 suspects. 33% chance (1/3) tomorrow and 50% chance the following day (1/2) with 2 lynched to use. 66% chance to catch scum randomly.

[quote="crazy scum, afatchic hides behind BC2, both die]

afatchic

bionicchop2

camn
icemanE
orangepenguin
ortolan[/quote]

Left with 4 players. 1 scum, 3 town, 2 suspects. 50% chance of lynching scum randomly. One lynch to use before game ends.

Hiding behind me and you dying while I live is an obvious victory. Statistically a no-hide gives the town the best odds based on lynches, but effectively an announced hide counts in the same manner.

An unannounced hide in which afatchic lives gives the town certain victory. The gamble leaves a wide variance though because there is 33% chance she dies.

bionicchop2 · Post Post #698 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:33 pm

mod

please replace my last post with this (or delete this and fix my quote tages. Thanks.

=====================

crazy scum, afatchic hides without announcing, afatchic dies wrote: afatchic
bionicchop2
camn
icemanE
orangepenguin
ortolan

icemanE and OP are interchangeable here as confirmed town. Left with 4 players. 1 scum, 3 town, 3 suspects. 33% chance of lynching scum randomly. One lynch to use before game ends.

crazy scum, afatchic doesn't hide wrote: afatchic
bionicchop2
camn
icemanE
orangepenguin
ortolan

Let's assume afatchic gets killed in this scenario, but any of the cleared could be killed. 1 scum left. 4 town. 3 suspects. 33% chance (1/3) tomorrow and 50% chance the following day (1/2) with 2 lynched to use. 66% chance to catch scum randomly.

crazy scum, afatchic hides behind BC2, both die wrote: afatchic
bionicchop2
camn
icemanE
orangepenguin
ortolan

Left with 4 players. 1 scum, 3 town, 2 suspects. 50% chance of lynching scum randomly. One lynch to use before game ends.

Hiding behind me and you dying while I live is an obvious victory. Statistically a no-hide gives the town the best odds based on lynches, but effectively an announced hide counts in the same manner.

An unannounced hide in which afatchic lives gives the town certain victory. The gamble leaves a wide variance though because there is 33% chance she dies.

afatchic · Post Post #699 (ISO) » Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:53 pm

Okay, heres the thing. Tonight, if crazy is scum, ill hide behind Ortolan. I don't like how he has been nearly cleared because of pointing out that TCS was watcher. while he may have just been really observant, scum would have been able to pick up on that quicker, and therefore point it out. and the scum really didn't lose much from him pointing that out as TCS was dead the next day regardless.
So
Crazy---->scum, hide behind Ortolan
Crazy---->town, not hiding.

how does that sound? flaws?