Mini Normal 2322: Game Over

[Hu Tao]

How terrible would a mass claim be right now. Because as of right now, I feel like if we don't get scum today or by vig shot, we lose effectively.

i am vt

not opposed to a hu tao wagon, who's feeling it?

maybe hu tao/dragon/hpe is scumteam?

i am vt

not opposed to a hu tao wagon, who's feeling it?

maybe hu tao/dragon/hpe is scumteam?

If I'm scum why would you listen to me and claim?

Mostly was asking flavor since he's the clear

How terrible would a mass claim be right now. Because as of right now, I feel like if we don't get scum today or by vig shot, we lose effectively.

lmfao are u just pr hunting now?
VOTE: Hu Tao (although I think I already did iirc)

?? You agreed and then complain now after I questioned you?

Kyouko. Thoughts on this interaction with cw?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think him claiming VT there does not make sense, and I think your read on Dragon is reinforced over time, by which I mean it's not fake, so your thoughts on cw's tunnel make sense as well.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Although I am rereading right now and it looks like cw claims VT and wants to massclaim on like page 4 so I don't know if he's claiming because you suggested it, I think he might just want it to happen. Still scummy, but for a different reason

[ssbm_Kyouko]

going to read everything this one missed in a sec here but saw a bunch of votes moving around Pavowski so time to UNVOTE: Pavowski before something stupid happens

This seemed a little suspicious (partner vibes) at first but this is it's first post after 53 and in 54/55, Pavowski gets votes, so this is towny actually

[ssbm_Kyouko]

(cw?, geraintm, joyboy?, flavor, myself, maybe DragonEater?) - players who reasonably could have found Thomith's cop crumb

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: CW
THIS MEAT IS TERRIBLE! HEALTHY BUT TERRIBLE!
LETS GET IT OUT OF HERE SO WE CAN GET TO THE GOOD MEAT TOMORROW

I can see the timing of this vote pointing to being partnered with one of Pavowski/HPE, who both just joined the Laplacian wagon. I don't think scum would all want to pile onto the same wagon at once so I kinda think Pavowski/HPE are not partnered

[ssbm_Kyouko]

IF YOUR NAME IS ON THIS LIST I AM GOING TO FIGHT YOU

Purplemango

- low content/new to forum mafia

Hu Tao

- not sure why

Laplacian

- the biggest wagon, also it's on town and being pushed by town (me)

cw357

- shitposting

geraintm

- minimum content

These look convenient

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I also love that clarifying my language from last night and then taking the time to reread the entire thread and see if my opinions still hold is apparently scummy. Guess I should join ssbm in voting one person and never ever reevaluating

I probably should have listened to my gut on this one but in my hubris I convinced myself he was faking this reaction

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Lemme check myself before taking someone this one is wary of at face value

Okay checks out thank you :salute:
VOTE: Laplacian

Looks like you're just voting them since you're getting heat too.

VOTE: HPE

Might be because I don't see the reason for the Lap scumread though

This would be a really weird way for scum!HT to abuse TMI to avoid the Laplacian wagon - meaning this is probably town!HT

[DragonEater70]

(cw?, geraintm, joyboy?, flavor, myself, maybe DragonEater?) - players who reasonably could have found Thomith's cop crumb

Def not me, I once missed a crumb from my own slot

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I also love that clarifying my language from last night and then taking the time to reread the entire thread and see if my opinions still hold is apparently scummy. Guess I should join ssbm in voting one person and never ever reevaluating

If a person were leaning heavily toward a scumread on you, it would be easy to view 226 as scum working to backpedal off an unpopular opinion

If we view you as acting in good faith, it's a perfectly fair reassessment

Not sure which way to read it, though, but it's interesting that

Thom had already done basically the same thing

@Pavowski - What was the thing that Thomith had already done, and what was the thing that it was basically the same as? Are you comparing something Thomith did to 226?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

(cw?, geraintm, joyboy?, flavor, myself, maybe DragonEater?) - players who reasonably could have found Thomith's cop crumb

Def not me, I once missed a crumb from my own slot

I say maybe DE because I don't have a guess one way or the other - cw seems experienced offsite, not sure if he's experienced in forum mafia where crumbs are a thing, and joyboy seems to be an alt so he could conceivably be able to find crumbs. Flavor, geraintm, and I have been around long enough we should all be reasonably capable of finding crumbs unless proven/suspected otherwise.

Also I'm pretty sure I've seen that exact same kind of crumb ('FBI' in capitals) used for a Cop before, so knowing I was looking specifically for Cop crumbs in Thomith's ISO, it was easy to find, especially since it was the first few posts.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Votecount 1.3

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to eliminate. Day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 07:27:34).

Votecount

Laplacian (4)

- ssbm_kyouko,

Abnegation

, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys

Flavor Leaf (2)

-

Flavor Leaf

, cw357

Abnegation (1)

-

Laplacian

cw357 (1)

- Joyboy

DragonEater70 (1)

- geraintm

HighPrincessErinys (1)

- DragonEater70

Not Voting (3)

- Hu Tao, Purplemango,

Thomith

Looking at the VC, I know I'm town - assuming this is correct, it would be one of Pavowski/HPE - I don't particularly think these 2 can be partnered.

Somehow the middle of my post here got lost while I was previewing the color tags, I think I hit ctrl-z at the wrong time, so this next part is rewritten.

I really wanted this to be correct, because it would make it easy to find one scum between 2 players. I don't think it's necessarily correct though. Looking at the wagons, we have one wagon on town!Laplacian being spearheaded by town (me). The rest of the wagons amount to vanity wagons with 1 vote a piece - I'm not counting Flavor's vote on himself, and we know he's town anyways. Point is, there is no counterwagon to Laplacian. Nobody is trying to stop it with a counterwagon, which includes scum. They could be on the wagon now, sure, but they could just as easily be chilling on vanity wagons/not voting while town rips itself apart.

Example: 3 of {cw57, Joyboy, geraintm, purplemango} could reasonably be scum from the quoted VC

In fact, I have town read Lap since early.

Scum is on Lap right now.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also when I say assuming this is correct, I'm talking about the Flavor quote, 304^

[ssbm_Kyouko]

A reread should also not be a magical get out of jail free card especially THIS early in.

Ah I guess the same thing that Thomith did that Pavowski was referring to was this: changing his read on pavowski after rereading, similar to how Laplacian changed between 226 and 228...

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yeah this one doesn't think 47 was a normal or towny way of getting out of RVS like at all.

Hmm okay

Would you vote

Thomith

here?

i just have a hard time seeing Dragon play this way as scum. it's over the line of too much as scum, that i think it's just genuine.

im pocketed cuz of it if they are scum, though, so ill have to break out of that later in the game if it turns out they are, but thats not a Day 1 thing

This one doesn't think Dragon is scum tbh just not playing so well lmao

Sadly this makes me slightly less confident about the scumread

If

Lap

and

HT

stopped existing, sure.

I lol'd

If I were scum and I had TMI, I might find it amusing that town!HPE and town!Dragon are arguing over who should be wagoned (both wagon targets town), and that HPE says it would vote town if the other 2 town were gone. If Pavowski flips red I'm pretty confident this is why he was laughing and it means HPE, Dragon, and Hu Tao are all town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I barely remember much of geraint, but i think that's a good thing with geraint slightly, and i expect to be able to read em if they're scum anyways.

yep, ive done nothing. i know you can read me, so i am happy to not vote you on day 1 and skip to day 2

VOTE: Laplacian

Do not like

Also if I didn't like geraintm coming in and E-2ing Laplacian I would have unvoted in town!Pavowski's shoes. This seems demonstrably fake when in Pav's next post he makes sure the mod gets him in the VC on Laplacian

To be clear, my current vote is on VOTE: Laplacian

This is not me re-voting him, it's just the votecounter seems to have missed the last one

At this point I'm ready to vote Pavowski and have a strong town pool off his red flip going into D3, but I'll keep reading and see if anyone else jumps out at me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If you think it's Abnegation make a case on her, don't sit and throw shade at me/HPE hoping somebody buys it and moves off

If you think it's one of us then vote us

I gave my case earlier, several people agreed, but it's hard to get more evidence when she hasn't posted in forever. So until then:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: HPE

This one thinks this is AI, in a way.
"Well she isn't giving me anything to work with so I'll just go with option B." when you could definitely make the case that the fact she ISN'T doing anything now is weird and worth attention. It's peeving me too, that's for sure, but you don't wanna go down that avenue because you don't think it's concrete enough. You're shopping for wagons that people will agree on and push with you rather than ones you think are genuinely scum. There's also a possibility you and Abne are scumpartners, which is why you don't feel like committing to a push on her, but even discarding that you're just

lazy

scum in general.

I think I found this as +town once already before the Laplacian flip (maybe it was after though), but I'll reiterate this doesn't feel like scum would drive the stake in like this. This is town that thinks it's about to get a scumflip

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Based on people pushing Lap, there are three options:
1. He isn't scum
2. He is being heavily bussed
3. He is scum with exactly two of joyboy/cw/Hu Tao/FL

He isn't scum with FL because FL wouldn't let a scum buddy basically VT claim and stay at E-2 without a real counterwagon

I am ignoring the possibility of him being scum with Hu Tao for now and will come back to it later

He is not scum with exactly Joyboy/cw because having vanity wagons on each other while your partner is the main wagon is the best way to lose as mafia and I get the feeling Joyboy at least has SOME level of competence in Mafia.

So barring Hu Tao partnership, we eliminate option 3.

On option 2 it's a lot quicker: is there anyone who is positioned to gain towncred from Lap flipping scum? Not really. I mean Kyo is probably not scum with Lap so would look good if he flips scum, but since she's not scum with him she isn't bussing.

So it's also not very likely scum are bussing (unless scum are just really bad).

Conclusion:
Either Lap is just town, or scum are really bad and are doing a stupid bus right now (in which case I feel fine letting Lap live a little longer since his buddies probably will be revealed through associations), or Lap is scum with Hu Tao + somebody else.

Since I currently TR Hu Tao and since I think she'd probably react differently to a wagon on buddy (either bus or hard defend), I'm fine with saying he is most likely not scum with Hu Tao, but this is not a hard no like with Flavor.

Suggestion:
Let's start a new wagon
VOTE: Abneg
(I was already voting Abneg, now voting for a different reason)

VOTE: Joyboy

These feel like the timing of the pushes are coming from uninformed town wanting something other than Laplacian on the Day - I would say the same thing about FL on this page but his claim is clearing so it's unnecessary

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don’t sheep reads, i take others reads into consideration, and i may sheep votes for momentum purposes.

I think purple has absolutely no objective in their posts

I think you might need to consider that given the way D1 went, scum didn't need an objective, and this is not a good reason to clear purplemango. Food for thought, especially after I flip it will be clear to everyone that town was railroading town on D1 and scum could have played like purplemango did and been fine.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

laplacian elim is idiotic and i hate it tbh
there's got to be scum on the wagon

things scum say when town gets limmed

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'd be down to vote any of cw/joyboy/HPE/Pav, I guess

This is where I'm at after rereading D1, untunneled, and knowing Flavor's claim

My bad Lap, if you're watching from the dead thread. Your flip was fire for info though

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Cw

I don't trust cw in a scenario where we need to vote right to win tomorrow. I think I've explained it already. I also think he just might flip scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'll say, as I'm reading page 32 now for the second time, I can see why I was viewing cw in a better light. I was also in disbelief when FL claimed vig - so much so that I even considered countering him, even though I'm not the vig, because I thought he was trying to bait out the real vig or something. The difference is though, I was able to see that was really dumb and not totally double down on my already poor D1 play, but here it looks like cw is looking for any angle to discredit Flavor's vig claim. As town that didn't believe flavor at first, my instinct was to fake CC him. I knew I would die if I was wrong, but I wasn't worried about that. cw does not want to die though, and he stops short of CCing Flavor.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

holy shit could flavor actually be conftown

this will crumble all my reads
I don't believe it yet though

lol cw is town

Possibly not though - "I don't believe it yet though" could just be scum showing off that they're not going to instantly accept his claim because they already know he's town