Mini 149: Open Role Mafia - Game Over

[Jaguar]

I'll

unvote: mole

at this time. I'd like to hear from mlaker as well.

[mlaker]

I am sorry guys but I'm going to have to request a replacement. I am going to have to focus on other things for a while and I just am going to have to leave the site for a few weeks. I'm sorry for any inconvienience that I may have caused you. You friend always,

mlaker
P.S. I should be back so I'm not gone forever!

[SpeedyKQ]

I'll search for a replacement, and for now, remove the deadline.

[SpeedyKQ]

mlaker is replaced by mathcam, effective immediately.

[mathcam]

Ah, nothing like jumping into a role one vote away from lynch (especially when there's one person who's unable to vote

unless

it's for a lynch). First, le me just how awesome of a day one this is. There's some great discussion going back and forth...I wish more games like this, and I wish I had been in this one from the start. Congrats to Speedy. Now, on to content:

My feeling from the first couple of days was that people were arguing different aspects of the reveal/no reveal argument. First, I don't think it's a clear decision one way or the other, and this is evidenced by the fact that good points have been made on both sides. Let me summarize what I feel are the main points of the argument, many of which have already been said, some of which are my own additions:

Anti-Reveal

:
Revealing an innocent puts that target at risk just like any other game in day one. This is made especially true by virtue of the fact that our cop is guaranteed sane. Further, we don't know if our cop is pro-town, so not only are we putting an innocent at risk, we don't really gain all that much information from it.

Pro-Reveal

:
Though it's true that in a regular game, a confirmed sane cop would make the innocent a bigger target, it might not hold in this game. Who scum targets at night will be very hard to predict, and the existence of a confirmed innocent might not alter that decision at all. With the cop and doc out in the open, they already have a wide variety of big targets. Adding to the complication is the fact that if Dourgrim survives the night, the questions of "Why wouldn't the scum have killed Dourgrim?" will undoubtedly shed some suspion on him. Further, if the cop is scum, then when that's revealed, his choice of who to confirm innocent today will provide yet one more piece of evidence later in the game.

Now let me jump on the fence and explain my reasoning:

A further note, based on Xanthe's post that it looks like Zedmango was killed twice, imples that the scum

don't

, in fact, know who's scum and who's not. To me, this sort of cinches the deal. If I'm mafia or SK at this point, I'd like primarily to kill the other group, to better ensure I won't be killed at night. Thus, I want to know an innocent so I

don't

go after them, and instead try to kill the other scum group. And if that's the case, I'm happy to oblige the scum and let them try to go after each other. So I think my conclusion is that the cop should reveal their innocent.

Now, who's scummy? I agree with the theory that scum is assigned randomly. Otherwise, arguments like "That's too powerful for a scum role," or "That doesn't seem like a scummy role" would hold just too much weight. And I doubt they're distributed in a way like 2 scum in generic townie, 1 in roled townie, etc. Now, honestly, I'd rather wait until at least one person unvotes me before I discuss scumminess of players, especially anyone not currently voting for me. It makes it just two easy for that person to respond "Well, that's crap logic, so you must be scum, so I'll kill you." So could I please get one unvote?

Of course, to unvote, you deserve a reason to, and I'm not sure I have one. All of the attacks on mlaker were based on begin inactive...either through lurking, or for blindly following suggestions. Both of these are pretty well-explained by the fact that he quite simply wasn't paying attention to the game. So while I have nothing to convince you of my innocence, I also don't think there's any argument against mlaker/mathcam that didn't disappear when he got replaced.

Sorry for the long post.

Cam

[mathcam]

That should be "jump

off

the fence."

Cam

[Xanthe]

Unvote: mlaker/mathcam

[SpeedyKQ]

Vote count:

4 mathcam (Stewie, lazarusmoth, Dourgrim, Malaprop)
2 lazarusmoth (HairyMezican, mathcam)

5 Not voting (Cubsfan4life, MeMe, mole, Jaguar, Xanthe)

6 to lynch

[MeMe]

A further note, based on Xanthe's post that it looks like Zedmango was killed twice, imples that the scum don't, in fact, know who's scum and who's not. To me, this sort of cinches the deal. If I'm mafia or SK at this point, I'd like primarily to kill the other group, to better ensure I won't be killed at night. Thus, I want to know an innocent so I don't go after them, and instead try to kill the other scum group. And if that's the case, I'm happy to oblige the scum and let them try to go after each other. So I think my conclusion is that the cop should reveal their innocent.

You're theorizing that scum would want to find out who's cleared to avoid targeting them. OK. I understand what you're getting at here, but forgive me if I remain skeptical about 1) revealing and 2) your motives for siding with the "pro-revelation" players.

Taking your logic (scum in particular want to know who's clear) just one step further -- anyone who's pushed for revelation is suspect and anyone who's been in favor of concealing the results is more likely innocent. Right? And

you're

in favor of finding out who's cleared... Erm...

[mathcam]

For the first part: Well, I'm at least saying that it's not obvious to me that the mafia would want to go after the cleared townie. Your skepticism is obviously forgiven (especially given my response for the second part below).

For the second part: The premise of this post is intriguing. In fact, you're absolutely right. How could it be that the different scum groups and the town could all want the same thing? That seems absurd. The conclusion must be that I'm either wrong about the town wanting the innocent revealed, or I'm wrong about scum wanting the innocent revealed. Which is it? Maybe for the very reason that an SK is more likely to be killed if an innocent, it's true that the SK would rather not see the innocent revealed. And ditto for the mafia. Or, of course, maybe your objections are valid, and the town really doesn't want the innocent revealed. My gut still tells me that it's worse for the scum to have the innocent revealed, but I have to admit I'm less sure of my decision, and I was pretty waffly to begin with.

But my motives for following the pro-revelation players? I was just trying to reason out the best play here. You're certainly not suggesting that all pro-reveal players are scum, so you have to at least recognize that some pro-town players are on the pro-reveal side of this issue.

Cam

[Xanthe]

mathcam said he'd give his opinions on which players looked scummy if at least one person unvoted him, and I have. mathcam, is one unvote enough? If not, please would someone else unvote him? I'd like to hear what he has to say.

[Stewie]

unvote

Is that enough?

[mathcam]

Oh, I wasn't waiting for another unvote, I just got distracted by a more interesting theoretical discussion. Continue to unvote at will, though.

Okay, my current best guess is mole. I think Xanthe made a somewhat decent point concerning mole, though I'll admit it's not extremely strong. This would be easier with a lot more people to choose from. I find it hard to be suspicious of the more active players, for the simple reason that if we lynch them, there'll be no one talking at all.

Dourgrim's requested replacement. And where's cubsfan?

Cam

[Malaprop]

Hrm. I still like lynching mathcam/mlaker. It's hunchish, of course, because it's Day 1 and there's little else to go on. So I'm leaving my vote where it is.

[mathcam]

That should be Jaguar, not Xanthe, in my last post.

Cam

[Jaguar]

I know my arguments weren't overly strong, but I don't have much more to go on than that, especially on a day 1.

I can certainly see your points concerning revealing results, but I think we should wait until day 2 at least. Since HM didn't get a guilty result, it's not really going to help us much, unless we are actually in the process of lynching that person.

If we do indeed have a SK and mafia on our hands, we are going to be in deep trouble if we don't lynch scum tomorrow.

As for Cubsfan, I know he's not posted much in another game he's in. Perhaps a prod would not be out of line? He now has two accounts though, as a result of some problems with the original one, and it looks like he's using the newer one to post in the other game.

[SpeedyKQ]

Looking for replacement for Dourgrim. Will prod Cubsfan. (Both accounts.)

[mathcam]

Jaguar, I wasn't trying to come off as saying "Jaguar's arguments were really weak." In fact, quite to the contrary, I was trying to say "Jaguar's arguments, while not incredibly strong, are significantly better than nothing."

Vote: Mole

.

Cam

[mole]

There's a pretty large downside to the "reveal Day 2" plan, if we all agree to follow it as stated, though... it requires the doctor to protect HM tonight, which, with two killing groups around, will guarantee he dies, and then both of the cops will follow without giving us any more information.

[mathcam]

Well...unless the doc's scum. Or one of the cops. I realize it's tempting to use typical game analysis here, but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense until we get anyone to be a confirmed innocent. I'm surprised there was no comment from mole on my most recent couple of posts.

Cam

[mole]

What can I say that I haven't already about that matter? Neither of you have brought anything to that discussion since my last post.

[mathcam]

Well, you could have said just that. I found it mildly suspicious that you didn't even acknowledge it.

Cam

[Cubsfan4ever]

I'm really sorry. I don't think I need a replacement and would like to still try to play in this game. Things have been a little crazy.

[mathcam]

Laz? HM? Even MeMe's last post was almost 3 days ago. Come on, people!

Without anything better, I still like my mole vote. While I realize I'm the leading bandwagon right now, at least a couple of these votes were based on lac of participation from mlaker. I don't think you'd be able to accuse me of the same. If you have a "hunch" that I'm scum, fine, but otherwise, let's brainstorm a better candidate.

Cam

[Stewie]

Well, right now I have no idea. Anyone could be scum, and it's pretty useless to bandwagon to ask for a role claim. I know that Cam will participate, so my voet on him is useless now. If someone can explain the mole bandwagon better, I might cooperate, but right now I don't get it.