In post 2470, shiki wrote:
but also why would skygazer think she or dannflor would be likely to be nightkilled
cause theyre towny
In post 2472, JupiterXV wrote:
idk i thhink scum here wants to kill anyone who's confirmed or towny
still looking for opportunism re:bellaphant scumread (haven't gone back to look at the previous days yet as when you state it here you said you've been saying it for days) but! want to remember this happened
sky gazer is literally dead
do you think, scums killed her? also why do you think those posts were of note to me?
she’s dead because you guys killed her and also idk
my hands may not be entirely clean there but i did not vote for her (nor am i a guys);
oh shit uhh “you guys” as an informal gender-neutral term used to refer to a group of people directly sorry
In post 3246, OutWorldER wrote:
to shoot for doc first you'd have to guess correctly on who that is, and if you guess wrong than Titus gets a clear, narrowing down her JK pool. Even if you guess right and kill doc, you'd still risk Titus jailing you when you go to shoot her.
Depending on scum's position just shooting Titus every night and hoping she jails Doc eventually is far less risky, and yes, I'm aware that that does somewhat implicate me since I've been mostly free of suspicion the entire game.
but if you only submit titus you can't win as long as the doctor protects the jailkeeper and the jailkeeper does not jail the doctor (unless of course schadd granted the scums a roleblocker or strongman due to an impassioned plea?) so your only possible win condition is town going completely offbook... which well it worked out for the scums, so!
idk the concession with upside theory seems plausible to me
this game has been long enough for me to have an orchestra event three times over the course of the game, a MUN conference twice, hospitalized once, and … well you get the idea can it please be over yet
In post 3246, OutWorldER wrote:
to shoot for doc first you'd have to guess correctly on who that is, and if you guess wrong than Titus gets a clear, narrowing down her JK pool. Even if you guess right and kill doc, you'd still risk Titus jailing you when you go to shoot her.
Depending on scum's position just shooting Titus every night and hoping she jails Doc eventually is far less risky, and yes, I'm aware that that does somewhat implicate me since I've been mostly free of suspicion the entire game.
but if you only submit titus you can't win as long as the doctor protects the jailkeeper and the jailkeeper does not jail the doctor (unless of course schadd granted the scums a roleblocker or strongman due to an impassioned plea?) so your only possible win condition is town going completely offbook... which well it worked out for the scums, so!
idk the concession with upside theory seems plausible to me
Concession with upside or scum just confident Titus would jail doc before them, either/or really. I don't think it's impossible for either Jupiter or Project to be banking on the latter since they both seemed to be out of the purview of Titus's PoE.
Although that reminds me that Titus seemed to be jailing consensus scum reads at times (outside of Skygazer for some reason who I think everyone had firmly sloted as town) so I am slightly worried that Project is the doc and Titus jailed him due to momentum building on him yesterday.
In post 3256, JupiterXV wrote:
this game has been long enough for me to have an orchestra event three times over the course of the game, a MUN conference twice, hospitalized once, and … well you get the idea can it please be over yet
are you the last scum? If so, we can end it for you right now
In post 3257, OutWorldER wrote:
Concession with upside or scum just confident Titus would jail doc before them, either/or really. I don't think it's impossible for either Jupiter or Project to be banking on the latter since they both seemed to be out of the purview of Titus's PoE.
hard to see which scums would be so confident in this though? like my expectation of titus would have been that she would not go offbook,
In post 3262, Bellaphant wrote:
I feel like you are missing that apart from sky, Titus did the level zero take two/three times.
Ugh, I'm just agreeing with out all the time now. Now I have to find another sr before Melo
right so scums in the level zero bracket could not count on not autolosing to being jailed
but then those not in the level zero bracket, it's like ???
like from dannflor's seat would just submitting titus over and over actually be better than giving clears at 8 and 6 and then nightkilling a clear at 4 and trying to win a 1v1? like in theory if he correctly guessed the doctor and all worked out that would have been a line open to him? so why corner self if not conceding with upside
I mean, consider the end results of both strategies.
Shoot Doc --> Shoot Titus would leave the remaining town with one or more clears that are mostly likely outside of the You/Me/Dann townblock. Scum likely loses from that position regardless.
In the scenario we're in the only clear we have is the doctor, who it's debatable should claim or not, and is potentially within the townblock described above, giving us less information to work with in this end-game. It's still a bad situation to be in unless the last scum is specifically one of Me/You/Dann, but theoretically more winnable than the other strategy if the last scum is in Bella/Jupiter/Project.
IDK, scum might not have thought this through as much as I have, I think the concession with upside theory is probably the most valid one.
Shoot Doc --> Shoot Titus would leave the remaining town with one or more clears that are mostly likely outside of the You/Me/Dann townblock. Scum likely loses from that position regardless.
In the scenario we're in the only clear we have is the doctor, who it's debatable should claim or not, and is potentially within the townblock described above, giving us less information to work with in this end-game. It's still a bad situation to be in unless the last scum is specifically one of Me/You/Dann, but theoretically more winnable than the other strategy if the last scum is in Bella/Jupiter/Project.
IDK, scum might not have thought this through as much as I have, I think the concession with upside theory is probably the most valid one.
unless i made specific read of titus 1v1 seems higher % to me
Shoot Doc --> Shoot Titus would leave the remaining town with one or more clears that are mostly likely outside of the You/Me/Dann townblock. Scum likely loses from that position regardless.
In the scenario we're in the only clear we have is the doctor, who it's debatable should claim or not, and is potentially within the townblock described above, giving us less information to work with in this end-game. It's still a bad situation to be in unless the last scum is specifically one of Me/You/Dann, but theoretically more winnable than the other strategy if the last scum is in Bella/Jupiter/Project.
IDK, scum might not have thought this through as much as I have, I think the concession with upside theory is probably the most valid one.
the thing is, there should never be a situation where the doctor is the only clear
It's a combination of thinking the others in my lim pool are just townier than him (I mostly disagree with you about Jupiter, for example), some specific stuff I highlighted during D2 that I can't be arsed to grab the post for, and the fact that nothing he has posted since has ever dissuaded me from the tunnel. I think he slots in nicely to a lot of theories (the "concede with upside" theory that Shiki posted, for example) and just in general his posts, even today, really give me only the bare minimum impression of "solving", and even the content he has posted today is regurgitated from what I said, and I think Shiki also said it was a repeat of something she was saying earlier too.
ok.
