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Post #3694 (isolation #602) » Sun Jan 21, 2024 4:40 am
Postby DragonEater70 »
In post 3685, Pavowski wrote:
*sigh* I'm gonna quit spamming the thread here (what, nobody else is awake and playing mafia at 7am on a Sunday??) but I've just about circled back around to townreading Dragon and Hu Tao, leaving a scumteam of Purple/Gera.
Like .... shit. That can't be it. My brain will not accept this as the solve. This is why this game is wearing me out.
FML
Flavor, tell me this is not scum blatantly bussing his buddy Purple to set up a geraint mislim tomorrow.
I really want this to be town but like, it feels like such a blatant bus.
Having his hammer on HPE be his first vote in the game is +scum to him (though only slightly because I can see him also doing it as town). Then hammering a miselim after he never did it before probably happened because Pav told him to.
So if pav is bussing then it must mean pav is the role blocker?
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Post #3696 (isolation #604) » Sun Jan 21, 2024 4:43 am
Postby DragonEater70 »
In post 3691, Pavowski wrote:
In fact Dragon pushing me just about makes the case for me that Dragon is town. Flavor has leaned real hard on his vibe-read of me as town for big portions of this game, and as Flavor says, if Dragon is town, he's going to have to convince Flavor to vote me.
I don't want to overstate my standing with Flavor, but there are other players in the lobby I think it would be easier for Dragon to align with Flavor to vote out than me. (Remember that any successful wagon today without Flavor on it by definition has scum on it, and as such is obviously a mislim or calculated bus. Dragon has to align with Flavor.) It feels like Dragon is pushing me because he believes the push.
That is indeed a good case for town me
I am going to log off for a time period between 2 and 24 hours, and when I am back I will
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Post #3697 (isolation #605) » Sun Jan 21, 2024 4:46 am
Postby DragonEater70 »
Btw it's nice that there are only 6 possible scumteams now (pav/purple, pav/hu, pav/gera, purple/hu, purple/gera, hu/gera). This means solving for scum teams might actually be viable.
And if all of you (except Flavor) assume I am town (I am), then from your viewpoints there are only 3 possible scum teams so it makes it even easier to case the correct one. If any of you can do that before I come back I'll be very proud of you.
The fact that he is going against you while you townread him proves he's town. It's the complete opposite of Pav who has been catering to you the entire fucking game. But more importantly than proving he is town, it shows his conviction in his solve which is as strong as mine and as strong as HT's. I don't think this level of conviction is based on a pocket, I think we genuinely found each other as town.
The fact that he is going against you while you townread him proves he's town. It's the complete opposite of Pav who has been catering to you the entire fucking game. But more importantly than proving he is town, it shows his conviction in his solve which is as strong as mine and as strong as HT's. I don't think this level of conviction is based on a pocket, I think we genuinely found each other as town.
I don’t see where he is going against me?
I see him pushing it as Hu Tao/Purple? I was pushing Hu Tao/Pav, he can’t push that.
He wanted Purple yesterday too. I think Purple was the other option yesterday at the end of the day.
And everything you are saying here, I can say the same about Pav.
Reread his post? He literally said he won't be pushing HT today unless I am blind or something.
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Post #3809 (isolation #619) » Mon Jan 22, 2024 11:33 pm
Postby DragonEater70 »
HOLY SHIT I JUST REALIZED SOMETHING
I thought today was Melo but actually, if scum quickhammers a townie today, Flavor and I jail/vig randomly between the quickhammerers. I have 50% chance to stop the kill. If scum blocks me, then Flavor has 100% chance to kill scum. If scum blocks Flavor it's 50% chance to stop the kill and 50% chance to lose. If scum blocks neither, we have 75% chance to either block the kill or kill scum.
Which means hammer tests are completely useless.
What this ALSO means is if we can lock one person as town (I'm leaning on that one person being geraint), then even if we miselim today we still have 50% to win.
Also if we miselim Flavor NEVER shoots me because if I'm scum I just block him and win, so for his shot to go through I have to be town.
In post 3798, Flavor Leaf wrote:
Cop and Vig vs Roleblocker Goon Goon does feel alright too.
In theory, if scum goes down day 1, they could lose on Day 2 with Guilty/Vig, so power is fine.
Cop, Vig, Jailkeeper vs Blocker Goon Goon still works, I think, but a lot stronger for scum. It could be 2 PR’s on scum in that case, a Blocker and then a 1-shot BP or something.
So setup wise, I can see Dragon either way.
Idk. I’m torn.
I just don't think agonizing over the mech gets us anywhere. Except to say that if Dragon is legit and we yeet him today, that's the game, cuz you'll be blocked and killed tonight.
Maybe if we yeet anybody not named Dragon and he attempts to use his jk as a block instead, but there's no guarantee that works.
We just have to take a leap of faith on him one way or another. I would rather go Purple or Hu Tao.
Fuck, am I actually townreading Pav now? No fucking way
In post 3825, DragonEater70 wrote:
The fact that you have correct meta about me, know how to read me, I am in my town meta, and have done nothing for your read on me to suddeny change?
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Post #3836 (isolation #631) » Tue Jan 23, 2024 6:16 am
Postby DragonEater70 »
In post 3831, Pavowski wrote:
Look, is it ... Is it *crazy* to consider no-lim today?
I mean ffs the last thing I want to do is drag this game out further but I just feel like getting 4 town to align perfectly is ... Very far away. Scum win with almost any mislim, a bus feels exceedingly unlikely.
And I know, tomorrow we still have to have 3 town align to win but that's one less person, and the NK would give us more to go on.
I mean imagine how your thinking changes when one of us is confirmed along with Flavor.
That *seems* to me like a better universe for town than the one we're in here.
Please feel free to explain to me all the reasons this is stupid and bad.
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Post #3840 (isolation #633) » Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:15 am
Postby DragonEater70 »
In post 3838, Hu Tao wrote:
I do think it's possible that I needed a reset. And its not like scum can quick vote right now so I don't see the issue of voting you at the moment dragon
The issue is not with voting me, it's with the lack of reasoning. But you know what, I'll let you have a reset.
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Post #3865 (isolation #639) » Tue Jan 23, 2024 11:06 pm
Postby DragonEater70 »
Btw Flavor
My recent scumgame just finished where I was obvscum
I won't dispute that I have the potential to be good at scum, but right now I am not in the correct real life mindset to be able to confidently play scum. So I think if you compare the differences, you can see that I am clearly outside of my scumrange this game.
Also, Hu Tao you should know that. In that game you spotted me as scum immediately. How the fuck do you think I can be scum this game.
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Post #3867 (isolation #641) » Tue Jan 23, 2024 11:08 pm
Postby DragonEater70 »
Like I don't think I am out of my scumrange of all time, I think I am out of my scumrange for the months November through January where I sucked hard at playing scum due to real life.
Like…at this point, I’m just scum playing a killer scum game. (That is my default, can’t help it
But still.
Maybe I have to go in and actually go about town casing every player.
Because I see the scum cases for EVERYONE too.
I am also in the dreaded IC position.
I really thought I’d just die and get my shot on HPE.
But it was a fun game.
at this stage, i have as town you, Dragon and me.
as far as i can tell, i think Flavour are 99% on that too. and if i am scum (which i ain't, i think i've done a pretty good job this game as appearing more and more townie as the game goes on and not doing anything scummy and your read on me Flavour has progressed like it normally does) i don't think you can beat Scum me. if there was a sudden wagon forming on me would be hella sus.
so, to me,i think there are 2 scum in the Purplemango, Hu Tao & Pavowski pool and we just need to shoot right twice to get the win.
Is that a fair summary of the game state? do either of Flavour or Dragon disagree?
because if this isn't how the game is going to proceed then i am at a loss.
I don't disagree, I even proposed a plan based on townlocking you back when I thought Flavor could still shoot.
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Post #3878 (isolation #646) » Wed Jan 24, 2024 6:27 am
Postby DragonEater70 »
Btw Flavor, I am not going to try and towncase myself through mech, or through reads or anything like that.
I think my biggest towncase this game is just this series of posts where I genuinely ask you to trust me, followed by my awe-struck reaction when you do:
Like I said, if Pav flips town I'll just lay down and die. I'm that confident. Consider it a BoP shot if you must.
In post 2636, DragonEater70 wrote:
I'm sure Pav is not willing to BoP shot me, because the only reason he's pushing my wagon is he hoped for an easy misfade.
In post 2630, Flavor Leaf wrote:
It’s just the time to deal with the possibility and cover the bases.
Cuz otherwise, it requires blind faith that you are town here.
And if you are town, I don’t trust you to find Hu Tao scum
I've kinda been asking you for blind faith a lot, like when I said Kyo is just town and I can't give you reasons. But I believe that if you truly search your heart you can find the truth and accept me as town with blind faith. Or you could just think back to all the moments yoj were townreading me and ask yourself why.
Also, if your shot on Hu Tao doesn't go off after Pav flips scum then I'll vote Hu Tao.
It’s also on you to make someone want to give you the blind faith, though, and you hadn’t
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Post #3883 (isolation #649) » Wed Jan 24, 2024 7:44 am
Postby DragonEater70 »
So am I like supposed to believe a narrative where town!Pav innocently commented about Purple hammering, and then town!Purple thought it was funny and hammered?
With 6 players alive, it takes 4 votes to eliminate. Day 5 ends in (expired on 2024-01-30 19:27:15).
If Purple voted geraint and geraint voted Flavor, we'd be like a snake eating it's own tail.
In post 3883, DragonEater70 wrote:
So am I like supposed to believe a narrative where town!Pav innocently commented about Purple hammering, and then town!Purple thought it was funny and hammered?
When Purple votes Geraint for the lolz, that means you guys are scum together, right?
No, but I said I can't accept a narrative where ypu are BOTH town, not a narrative where ypu aren't scum together.
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Post #3898 (isolation #656) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 12:35 am
Postby DragonEater70 »
I think HuPav makes sense but I have not looked into any of their associations beyond toDay and yesterDay.
Also, I was semi-clearing Hu Tao from being an HPE partner because HPE expressed sort of frustration in dealing with HT that I thought was real. But I just recently finished a game where I semi-cleared a player (Guillotina) from being partnered with scum!GEmerald due to some interactions (I don't even remember which), and I was wrong. And meta wise I remember that HT as scum also used the defence of "I pushed this scum Day 1 how can I be partnered with them" in her last scum game. Actually it would be incredibly funny if HT/HPE would be partnered twice in a row.
So what I'm meaning to say is that I could be pervailed upon to vote HT, but I want to reread some stuff.
Also, Pav made a pretty compelling case of why he isn't partnered with Purple.
In post 1492, Guillotina wrote:
I have a valid reason to suspect Gamma and your suspicion on Gamma is OMGUS and you are casing around it. I don't like it.
So… anything else Kyouko?
Wha?
Afaict you’re scumreading me for something I didn’t even do
In post 1499, Guillotina wrote:
Gamma give me your town top 3 and your scum top 3 and why please.
In post 1522, Guillotina wrote:
Like can say that Gamma could have slipped as scum for trying to AtE us with OGI stress while getting pressured which i often see scum do so.
That is based on this game, i want stuff like that.
Can you pls just fucking stop? Maybe what I posted counts as AtE but that wasn’t my intent, so you continuing to harp on about it is extremely annoying
So just to fade hu tao and ignore FL?In post 3540, Black wrote: Fade Hu Tao tomorrow. And don't listen to FL no matter what he says, unless he says to fade Hu Tao
