Open 902: Frienemies Blitz | Postgame

[Ranger]

1. Python's Day 1 performance, movement around gob counterwagon, and what it might mean for scum team's strategy.

I didn't engage you on this before, but my view was you were overlooking a much simpler answer for usesPython's actions;

They were performative.

usesPython claimed there weren't enough votes for gob. You took this as usesPython genuinely believing there wasn't. I took it as an act. I thought you were saying "usesPython knew there were the votes, why didn't they force through gob", my take is usesPython knew there was the votes, and chose not to as an act.

As Dannflor stated, scum were in control of D1 until near the end. They chose to direct things away from gob because they thought it was beneficial to avoid forcing through the gob wagon. It tells me there's likely at least one scum in the names usesPython listed as definitively opposed to the gob wagon;

since

gob

/Naerys/

Dann/HEM

/STD/T-Bone/JV all townread gob

If there's scum in these names, then the only way to get the gob wagon through would be to scumclaim. By deciding not scumclaiming is more important, it would mean they'd need a wagon the names within could safely pivot to without it being a scumclaim.

That would give 1-2 scum in {Naerys, Save the Dragons, T-Bone, JacksonVirgo}.

[T-Bone]

Yet you’re not seemingly looking at what I’m saying, in this thread

Take your time with eating and such.

Look to back to what both talked about on day 1 about not feeling confident about the game and sometimes having to act more confident than maybe we are. That was a real moment of understanding between us (and I don't care if you're scum it holds true).

With that in mind, show me what I'm not looking at.

[JacksonVirgo]

How confident do you think I am about you wolf?

[T-Bone]

In the interim what would you consider “evidence”

Just something in your posts that showed a shift in your thinking. Your shift looks, to me, survivalistic rather than something you were considering before you needed to. Today on Day 3 scum!JV needs something, and T-Bone being aggressively wrong on Enchant is something for sure. It appears to me that HEM makes gob's final case on me and that was good enough and now we are here, arguing about what substance you really had behind that vote.

I know I ranted about "ISO me and make a case" earlier but that's not actually the standard I care about. That was more just...trying to get a reaction out of you (and Black) that I could work with maybe. I keep comparing you to STD and you'll find no such post in STD's ISO.

[T-Bone]

How confident do you think I am about you wolf?

Honestly, in a world where you are town, I don't think you're that confident, I think you're emboldened because I am incorrectly calling you scum and challenging you on a read that you've been thinking about for awhile. I think if you were more confident we wouldn't suddenly be having this conversation and I wouldn't have been able to find nothing in your ISO so easily that confirms my own suspicions.

[T-Bone]

The natural question is of course what is my confidence level? I'd say about half way because I do see the flip side I just hypothesized in 1954.

[Ranger]

2. Enchant's elimination in a scum!JV world and a town!JV world.

In a town-JV world, D2 is a lot like D1; all town were wagoned. JacksonVirgo, Enchant, and myself were the only wagons I saw on D2 get above two votes, so it'd mean no scum were threatened. I'm not sure what information can be gleaned from this, scum usually can do whatever then.

In a scum-JV world, I would expect the remaining scum to loosely support Enchant as a wagon, without strongly defending JV. They'd know JacksonVirgo would be going down sooner than later; they'd want to avoid it being D2. They wouldn't benefit from hard-defending JV, nor hard-bussing them and potentially pushing the wagon through. Ergo, they would be in those who didn't park on JV all of D2 and didn't vote Enchant all of D2.

1175, 1225, 1250, 1475, 1533, [poat]1625[/post], 1675, 1754, then 1852 tell the story there.

Black stayed on JacksonVirgo the entire day, and would not be a JV buddy.
Doctor Drew hopped onto JacksonVirgo and would not be a JV buddy.
T-Bone voted Enchant and never stopped, and would not be a likely JV buddy.
davesaz never voted, so could not have been involved in trying to save JV.

Ergo, the likely scumbuddy for JacksonVirgo would be limited to,
{Save the Dragons, Naerys}

[Ranger]

It's too advanced, but in Day 3 - upon JV's flip - I would like everybody to look at STD as deepwolf or as JV's partner. STD was a last-minute vote on Python's wagon after townreading them much of the game, and on Day 2 - was instrumental in invalidating my push on JV while encouraging votes on Enchant.

One notable thing is he voted for me after being cross with me, supposedly, but I don't find it believable that he really scumread me just for calling him out as being wrong on Day 1. I believe it was an effort to invalidate my push on JV to make me look unreasonable (and if JV would flip scum, JV also went for a tactic where he would say that "he's seeing words but not getting any meaning from them").

Having checked at least the votes, I find this plausible.


However, I'd like to direct your attention to Naerys's voting pattern, having been on me before swapping to Enchant, and helping reignite the wagon on Enchant over JacksonVirgo. In fact, when the wagons were about equal, Naerys shifted momentum towards Enchant.

[Ranger]

Scum can't really believe their fake reads since they know the truth.

This is true, however, experienced scum can fake believing a read and tunneling in on it, using confirmation bias as an excuse to not expose their lack of genuine thoughts on more players.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I really think Ranger is town from the subtext of her analysis.

In a town-JV world, D2 is a lot like D1; all town were wagoned. JacksonVirgo, Enchant, and myself were the only wagons I saw on D2 get above two votes, so it'd mean no scum were threatened.

Ranger totally forgot that D1, scum!Python was eliminated and was not at all like D2. As scum, that would probably be more impactful for her.

[Ranger]

I still don't understand how Ranger is surviving

I'm annoyingly good at frustrating scum who think I'm an easier push than I am.

I still don't understand how the players suspicious of me can justify keeping that push going.

[JacksonVirgo]

I'm not confident that you're wolf, but I'm seeing you as the most likely to be a wolf but as you said you agreed with me on I have to be confident or my words don't get listened to as much, and considering my stance you need that confidence or my voice gets thrown to the aether even more than it already will. Since the start of the game I pushed myself down a path and got hilariously booted up the ass with every new piece of information. My python town-read was my stronger read, it was wrong and the aftermath of that is still affecting me, the black push that got flipped completely head over tail, the HEM push who ended up masonry, etc. Just constantly having to shift my reads to the complete other side which is hilarious and I love it but it does have the consequence of throwing my confidence down the garbage disposal unit, which is impressive cuz we don't have garbage disposal units in Australia but not only my confidence but given my stronger SR just now turned out to be masonry, it's tough to bounce back and form a steady and reliable analysis of the game when every time you have to rebase yourself the rug gets pulled under you almost immediately. This isn't me trying to justify myself or complain, just explaining my pov.

I saw how you were interacting with the wagons and I thought it was suspect in the off chance I was wrong on Enchant, of which ultimately I was. I said the start of my analysis of you in that readtier post you quoted from me. It happened so I'm leaning in that world now and without cross-checking my memory with your ISO I also recalled in the moment your interaction around Ranger and how people weren't understanding their words unlike yourself. I felt that considering you were >rand mafia this felt off looking back on it. It felt overly fake and contrived and meant to make a point OR to try and make ranger think you understand them unlike others. I followed through with more "detailed" explanation of my analysis on how you interacted with the Enchant/JV wagons which you acknowledged existed but then pretended like I never did that?

[Doctor Drew]

2. Enchant's elimination in a scum!JV world and a town!JV world.

In a town-JV world, D2 is a lot like D1; all town were wagoned. JacksonVirgo, Enchant, and myself were the only wagons I saw on D2 get above two votes, so it'd mean no scum were threatened. I'm not sure what information can be gleaned from this, scum usually can do whatever then.

In a scum-JV world, I would expect the remaining scum to loosely support Enchant as a wagon, without strongly defending JV. They'd know JacksonVirgo would be going down sooner than later; they'd want to avoid it being D2. They wouldn't benefit from hard-defending JV, nor hard-bussing them and potentially pushing the wagon through. Ergo, they would be in those who didn't park on JV all of D2 and didn't vote Enchant all of D2.

1175, 1225, 1250, 1475, 1533, [poat]1625[/post], 1675, 1754, then 1852 tell the story there.

Black stayed on JacksonVirgo the entire day, and would not be a JV buddy.
Doctor Drew hopped onto JacksonVirgo and would not be a JV buddy.
T-Bone voted Enchant and never stopped, and would not be a likely JV buddy.
davesaz never voted, so could not have been involved in trying to save JV.

Ergo, the likely scumbuddy for JacksonVirgo would be limited to,
{Save the Dragons, Naerys}

This is such a surface level breakdown of the votes on Jackson.

You are basically cosplaying as yourself right now

[JacksonVirgo]

I value being understood or treated in a way where I feel people put the appropriate level of effort to try and understand me, if that wasn't clear

[Ranger]

i'm not voting outside of {Ranger, TBone} today and probably ever

It's your prerogative to vote town.

As opposed to yours that saves scum?

Near as I can tell, not one vote of mine has saved scum. usesPython was eliminated D1 with no vote change of mine involved at all, and my vote nearly placed JacksonVirgo to L-1. By the time I swapped to Enchant again, he was already having momentum shifted onto him over JacksonVirgo. If JV is scum, mine was not the vote which saved them; if JV isn't scum, then my vote couldn't have saved scum regardless as no scum was wagoned.

[JacksonVirgo]

I really think Ranger is town from the subtext of her analysis.

In a town-JV world, D2 is a lot like D1; all town were wagoned. JacksonVirgo, Enchant, and myself were the only wagons I saw on D2 get above two votes, so it'd mean no scum were threatened.

Ranger totally forgot that D1, scum!Python was eliminated and was not at all like D2. As scum, that would probably be more impactful for her.

Oh shit you're right, I'm even more confident now

[Ranger]

Ranger totally forgot that D1, scum!Python was eliminated and was not at all like D2. As scum, that would probably be more impactful for her.

Much as I'd love to be cleared for stupid reasons like this, I was referring to Dannflor's own analysis of D1; scum were in control all of D1 until the end when they weren't.

Scum on D2 would've been similar.

[JacksonVirgo]

Scum can't really believe their fake reads since they know the truth.

This is true, however, experienced scum can fake believing a read and tunneling in on it, using confirmation bias as an excuse to not expose their lack of genuine thoughts on more players.

This might be unconventional but I tend to try and convince myself (and mostly succeed) that the push is genuine and try and gaslight, for lack of a better term, myself to fake that aspect of a read and it works well enough.

[Ranger]

This is such a surface level breakdown of the votes on Jackson.

As it so happens, you're correct; I was only viewing the surface of JacksonVirgo, considering my focus was on the Enchant wagon and the voters there.

Which, notably, I did also cover yesterday. Perhaps you'd like to read my content there?

[JacksonVirgo]

Yo Ranger, why is your pfp chemistry stuff

[Ranger]

Yo Ranger, why is your pfp chemistry stuff

I took experience playing mafia on EM and here to my first ComicFury game, got a reputation for overanalyzing, associated with meticulous breakdowns. There was a DragonFable Mad Scientist character who had a line, "For SCIENCE!" (which I didn't know was a reference), so I associated my overdetailed work with that character, portraying myself as a scientist. I drew myself as a scientist, with the caption "for SCIENCE!", and it became my persona particularly in werewolf/mafia games.

When I transferred back to here, I didn't want to taint my ComicFury name explicitly, so I couldn't use my scientist avatar, so I looked for something invoking the aesthetic without explicitly tying me there. I got "for SCIENCE!" as my starting signature and the beaker, and haven't drawn a replacement since. I half-finished my intended replacement, yet life got in the way.

[JacksonVirgo]

Oh damn, it has a lengthy backstory that's amazing. It makes so much sense now :O

[JacksonVirgo]

Aww I must have just narrowly missed T-Bone's availability

[T-Bone]

I'm not confident that you're wolf, but I'm seeing you as the most likely to be a wolf but as you said you agreed with me on I have to be confident or my words don't get listened to as much, and considering my stance you need that confidence or my voice gets thrown to the aether even more than it already will. Since the start of the game I pushed myself down a path and got hilariously booted up the ass with every new piece of information. My python town-read was my stronger read, it was wrong and the aftermath of that is still affecting me, the black push that got flipped completely head over tail, the HEM push who ended up masonry, etc. Just constantly having to shift my reads to the complete other side which is hilarious and I love it but it does have the consequence of throwing my confidence down the garbage disposal unit, which is impressive cuz we don't have garbage disposal units in Australia but not only my confidence but given my stronger SR just now turned out to be masonry, it's tough to bounce back and form a steady and reliable analysis of the game when every time you have to rebase yourself the rug gets pulled under you almost immediately. This isn't me trying to justify myself or complain, just explaining my pov.

I saw how you were interacting with the wagons and I thought it was suspect in the off chance I was wrong on Enchant, of which ultimately I was. I said the start of my analysis of you in that readtier post you quoted from me. It happened so I'm leaning in that world now and without cross-checking my memory with your ISO I also recalled in the moment your interaction around Ranger and how people weren't understanding their words unlike yourself. I felt that considering you were >rand mafia this felt off looking back on it. It felt overly fake and contrived and meant to make a point OR to try and make ranger think you understand them unlike others. I followed through with more "detailed" explanation of my analysis on how you interacted with the Enchant/JV wagons which you acknowledged existed but then pretended like I never did that?

I'm not going to argue with most of this, this helps, thanks.

The last point though, I am pretty sure the post in which I call your read unsubstantial happened before you made that point about the Enchant wagon. Given that I made the assertion in my 1906, and then in my 1923 I was reacting to your 1911, and while that was happening you made 1920 explaining your stance. So it was true when I first made the assertion and it's a wash when I posted 1923 because I was reacting to an older post and you then explained yourself a little bit while I was getting the quotes I was looking for from your ISO. That's a playstyle thing that maybe you didn't realize. When I quoted 1911, that was my immediate reaction, I hadn't read posts 1912 to 1922 until after I finished my reply to it. I thought this was an obvious thing I was doing and i took for granted that maybe it wasn't. I also have not read anything after this post yet either btw.

[T-Bone]

I value being understood or treated in a way where I feel people put the appropriate level of effort to try and understand me, if that wasn't clear

I really am trying! This is a hint if you ever encounter me as scum in a future game but scum!bone cares a lot less about seeing the town perspective of people, because that dude has mislims to coordinate.