Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[OhGodMyLife]

Ythill, are you trying to convince me you're the last scum? Cause its working.

[Elmo]

Day 2 vote: Ythill

GET 'EM IN EARLY FOLKS

[Ythill]

Yeah, by all means pre-declare a vote against me so I don't die tonight.

[MacavityLock]

I go away for two finals and look what happens. I really don't like last minute wagons, though SC might have been a special case. The self-vote was a positive sign, so we'll see.

[LlamaFluff]

I dont know how long night is going to last, but I dont expect to have any access from the 21st to the 26th.

Noted. Nights are usually 72 hours as mentioned in the second post.

[Huntress]

As the citizens begin to discuss they start to point fingers and one person after another faces the town's scrutiny. Is this a sign of guilt? Is that? Eventually one person seems to be getting most attention.

"But I'm your Doctor", he cries, pointing to the medical diploma hanging on his wall. Concerned at the risk of losing a valuable member of the community you look elsewhere but as sunset approaches the talk swings back to StrangerCoug. You go round to his house to see if he has anything more to say but when you get there a shocking sight meets your eyes. Hanging from a rope thrown over a rafter you find the "doctor" already dead. He has obviously accepted the inevitable and taken his own life.

On closer examination you see that his medical diploma is clearly a forgery. But if he wasn't the doctor then who was he?

Final Vote Count for Day One

Apothecary 2 - (MacavityLock, Ythill)
StrangerCoug 6 - (OhGodMyLife, Qwints, LLamaFluff, Cephrir, Elmo, StrangerCoug)

Not voting 3 - (Apothecary, Corvuus, Jazzmyn)

StrangerCoug (

Mafia Roleblocker

) has been lynched.

Please send in all night actions by 21st December 11 am GMT.

[Huntress]

As the dawn chorus signals the start of a new day the sound is interrupted by the most mournful howling. It seems to be coming from Ythill's house so you all gather there and see, in front of the house, his faithful hound lying beside the dead body of his master. Examining the corpse you find that Ythill has been shot in the head. He appears to have been ambushed on his way back from somewhere but where had he been? Had he discovered anything? Unfortunately, if he did you will never know.

Ythill (Pro-town Tracker) was killed night one.

With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

[Cephrir]

Well, that's bizarre. I could go into my WIFOM thought process about it, but I won't.

It's hard to read a lot into SC because he was just all over the place. There's certainly nothing preventing OGML from being his buddy so I'll go with my thought from yesterday.

Vote: OGML

[OhGodMyLife]

So with one of my main suspects dead, I'm thinking its got to be Cephrir and MacavityLock.

Vote: Cephrir

[MacavityLock]

So with one of my main suspects dead, I'm thinking its got to be Cephrir and MacavityLock.

Guh? Why me?

I'm thinking that Jazz needs to join the game, and I'd be up for bringing back the Apoth wagon. In fact, I see nothing that precludes Apoth-scum, so

Vote: Apoth

.

[OhGodMyLife]

Guh? Why me?

Mostly a process of elimination. Out of the group I listed under "meh" yesterday, Ythill is dead, Jazz is looking significantly more protown as of yesterday's lynch, and at this point I'm not buying Apoth as coug's scumbuddy. Which leaves you. I read you in isolation overnight, too, and something was setting off my scumdar, I'll have to go back and pick it out at some point.

[Corvuus]

huh.

interesting.

i actually liked the whole SC-Primate (ythill) scumbuddy thing because of the PR and everything but now i'm confused as heck. What in the world was SC possibly thinking in letting Primate say he was scum by venn diagram?

ugh.

got to re-read.

Corvuus

[Apothecary]

What role do you think tracker meant?
I'm a little confused about Mac's suspicions of me. Could you explain why you believe that?

[Corvuus]

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Tracker

my first time seeing a tracker in an actual game. basically he 'tracks' someone and can see their night action "target" but not the night action performed.

Corv

[Ythill]

Bah! Go get 'em.

[Corvuus]

ugh... SC was fairly over the place. Still doesn't make sense to me. Mainly because my main reasons for SC being scum were apparently for the wrong reasons but it was right in the end.

bleh.

His voting and FoSing is strange. In terms of meta, I assumed his reason for ignoring Primate (when he had voted/FoSed on smaller things) was because of favoritism/scumbuddy, but apparently SC just ... ignored Primate... for no real reason except perhaps the PR would make him 'useless' and controllable for late game. I still don't see why Primate said SC was certain scum in venn or why SC ignored it.

If anything, I may re-read and build a case against people SC voted against since SC (as scum) seems like the type of person to vote his scumbuddies.

The other strange post from SC is his post here where we say not to speculate on setup... and then SC goes ahead and speculates on setup.

I don't think it helps us to speculate on setup and such until after we get a few dead bodies to see what role/flavor there really is. Otherwise it is a mod WIFOM isn't it?

I agree with you here. We have to wait until Night 1 to get a idea of how many groups we're dealing with.

Assuming we have no doctors or roleblockers:
One person dies Night 1 = just the one Mafia
Two people die Night 1 = Mafia/Mafia, Mafia/SK, or Mafia/Vig
Three people die Night 1 = Most likely Mafia/SK/Vig, though Mafia/Mafia/Vig isn't too far-fetched an idea. Mafia/Mafia/SK is unlikely in a mini normal.

Simply speaking, we don't know what groups we're dealing with simply because we're all alive. We shouldn't be outguessing the mod, and anybody already trying to do so on page four should be viewed as suspicious for knowing more about the setup than the town should.

I agree with what Atlas is saying as well.

I don't understand why SC would say this, but SC as a scum roleblocker saying this strikes me as strange since he is lying and misrepresenting from the first line but he should have a reason for doing this so perhaps based on scum powers/knowledge, he knows or is worried about 'another group' (whether SK, Vig, or 2nd mafia group).

I don't understand why Mafia would target Ythill... I think town considered him most likely to be lynched day 2.... so either there is a Vig/SK or Ythill's statement of "Sure, vote for me so I don't get NK'ed" made mafia think he was a power role (or maybe prior breadcrumbing) occurred... and that isn't even including other stuff...

bleh, too many 'power roles'.

bleh.

Corvuus

[OhGodMyLife]

SC's paranoia about a second scumgroup may mean he was in a scumteam of only two people.

[Jazzmyn]

Well, hmph. I spent quite a lot of time dissecting Ythill's posts (and even doing some meta on him) during the night phase and I had pretty much convinced myself that he was scum. I fully expected to start this day with my lengthy analysis on him and a vote, and now I see that it was all for naught.

So, back to the drawing board.

Rereading some of the others and knowing now that SC was, in fact, scum I'm leaning towards Macavity or MM(OGML) at present. I'm not seeing an Apoth/SC scum team, and a late-replacement bussing by OGML would be a brilliant play, but I'm going to have to read again after I get back from Christmas shopping, which I really must go and start now.

I'll be back later tonight, though.

Regards,
Jazz

[MacavityLock]

I don't understand why Mafia would target Ythill... I think town considered him most likely to be lynched day 2.... so either there is a Vig/SK or Ythill's statement of "Sure, vote for me so I don't get NK'ed" made mafia think he was a power role (or maybe prior breadcrumbing) occurred... and that isn't even including other stuff...

I don't think this (Vig/SK stuff specifically) is a useful line of inquiry.

As for the Apoth/SC potential scum team, I'd say that Apoth's townie fake-claiming thing looks even worse in light of SC-scum.

[Elmo]

I never got around to reading Ythill - LF. See? Laziness pays off! (Okay, I thought LF would be the one dying, but still.)

Either a) the scum got some power tell off him or b) a kill was blocked and he was killed by a third party. A SK would probably be wanted to hit town with the mafia getting kerb stomped D1, so I tend towards a vig. Hence, discussion of the kill should probably stop now. Don't see us getting much from it even if it was a scumkill.

OGML, Mac is prob town imo. Cephrir I am more vague about. I will read whatever you dig up.

One thing I should actually do is go back and look at that wagon. There is a very short list of roles that mafia should be risking outing themselves to keep alive a little longer, and mafia RB is at the absolute top of that. Hence, bussing out the mafia RB on day 1 takes at least some serious cajones, and is probably just a stupid move in any setup.

[qwints]

Well, that's bizarre. I could go into my WIFOM thought process about it, but I won't.

It's hard to read a lot into SC because he was just all over the place. There's certainly nothing preventing OGML from being his buddy so I'll go with my thought from yesterday.

Vote: OGML

FOS: Cephrir

. Starting a wagon at deadline against a scum-power role is certainly suggestive of someone being town. Sure, he might have been trying to establish town credentials because he thought the lynch wouldn't happen, but I don't think you can look at the last part of yesterday and say "this makes OGML likely to be scum."

I am equally confused about last nights kill, though. I don't think we can figure out anything from it now, but it will definitely be something to keep in mind as we learn more.

[Corvuus]

Eh, I would need to be convinced more of Apoth-SC being scumbuddies.

SC 'had' technically saved himself with his doc claim, so why would he need to 'BUS' and argue and post "lets just lynch Apoth already" if Apoth was his scumbuddy.

If Apoth turned up scum, it wouldn't clear SC in any way since he would die later/eventually and then scum would be definitely down 2 players and have almost no chance of winning.

It just isn't a smart play at all for SC as scum to try to lynch Apoth as scum (assuming they are on the same team... of scum... bleh). So if you have arguments for Apoth being scummy, then go for it, I probably just won't accept arguments that Apoth is SC's scumbuddy as for why Apoth should be lynched.

.....

....

eh, I just read something that rubs me the wrong way.

Vote OGML

Maybe i'm just crazy, but somehow I feel I just gained a moment of clarity.

Short version: You know too much and your wording in saying scum is only 2, ythill are you trying to convince me you are the last scum, etc. (referencing knowledge several times) makes me think there are 2 scum groups; SC-someone, OGML-someone; OGML just trying to eliminate the competition by going after SC-Ythill.

I'm fine with being extremist and paranoid so I will go with this in addition to MM's tells. The mod description at the beginning does mention 'gangs/groups' and with SC's post/admission/paranoia I think it is most likely the case.

Corvuus

[Corvuus]

edit by way of post.

Vote OGML

[OhGodMyLife]

Corv, when I said last scum in this post:

Ythill, are you trying to convince me you're the last scum? Cause its working.

my conclusion was already that the scum were SC-Cephrir-???, making Ythill the "last scum" in that hypothetical scumteam.

Elmo, mac starting the day by going straight back to Apothecary is a huge black mark on him too, I really don't see any way for Apoth to be scum at this point.

[Cephrir]

OGML, you have yet to give any reasons why I'm scum.