Mini Theme 2330 - A Questionable Almost-Normal Game - Postgame

[ketchup777]

Spoiler:

I'm confused why Drew's reaction couldn't have come from someone that doesn't know we're all cops. I'm not trying to play dumb I legitimately don't get it. Please explain

Imagine if Koba flipped VT (or any other role that wouldn't make everyone think everyone is a cop), how does Drew survive d2?

Answer: Either not at all or with great difficulty

Imagine if Drew didn't hammer and we wagoned someone d1 who flips VT (or any other role that wouldn't make everyone think everyone is a cop) and then Lap gets shot at night (with no clears since they die n1), how does Drew survive d2?

Answer: Easily

In order for Drew aggressively pushing Lap after the claim to make sense he'd specifically need to know it's safe to pretend to be a Cop pushing a fakeclaim and that there'd be enough Cop flips by the start of day 2 that people would assume something's up and predict the Godfathers. Without the two cop flips happening his play doesn't make any sense from a survival perspective and the only way he'd know that people would see two cop flips and predict the setup as scum is if he knew everyone was a cop

Ok, I think I understand what you're saying. I feel like trading one scum in order to kill the Disloyal Cop would probably be a good move
~snippy snippy~

maybe Black came up with Light‘s gambit! (;


ahhh I didn’t even get round to overall VCA stuff oops and I spent way longer reading the thread than I meant to (got back up to page 70). Sorry for mega cascade of posts, feel free to pick and choose ones to respond to

post 2500 bloop

[light_ganski]

if Light is disloyal cop and we managed to make our two Disloyal cops the top 2 day 1 wagons that would be really funny but also a priori that’s so unlikely, it’s more likely we hit a scum who cced

I know I'm probably dying today either way

but this is gambler's fallacy. the odds of me being one of the top two wagons are entirely unconnected to the odds of laplacian being one of the top two D1 wagons (unless we were both scum which we aren't)

[Doctor Drew]

UNVOTE:

I always figured there was one scum between Titus and Ranger, but I don't want to have my blinders on either.

Weird to see Ketchup reverse course so suddenly on me as well lol, I should enjoy it more than I am

[Doctor Drew]

Also, why is it so crazy to think I wouldn't NK Jackson?

I don't really get the progression from Titus and Ketchup.......though I can't think of a viable reason that they would be scum and using the NK, to lock me town I guess?

I don't think either of them think they can pocket me(actually I believe Ranger thinks she could, so that pushes the scale slightly to her as scum).

But right now, I kinda am town leaning Ranger......just the pieces aren't adding up right as for her to be scum

[usesPython]

Also, why is it so crazy to think I wouldn't NK Jackson?

I don't really get the progression from Titus and Ketchup.......though I can't think of a viable reason that they would be scum and using the NK, to lock me town I guess?

I don't think either of them think they can pocket me(actually I believe Ranger thinks she could, so that pushes the scale slightly to her as scum).

But right now, I kinda am town leaning Ranger......just the pieces aren't adding up right as for her to be scum

Posting in an airport, we'll catch up later but Ranger should be mechanically conftown from your perspective because for Ranger to be scum one of the following scenarios would be true:

1. Enchant is VT, Ranger is Mafia Godfather and Enchant is letting her steal the VT claim (Which like why?)
   
2. Enchant and Ranger are mafia, there are no VT claims so either a VT is silent (Which like why?) or the unannounced rulebreak was 0 VTs which would mean getting an Inno on Enchant would be impossible

[ketchup777]

Yeah although the maf presumably didn’t know that these VT shenanigans we’re going to happen they would have known that Light was always going down today or tomorrow after this claimed redcheck on Ranger, so tbh I think they wouldn’t doggypile Ranger but would instead prefer to be antilight, letting Light go (with a chance town take out Ranger) in order to look good by not voting Ranger. So somewhat peculiarly perhaps I think Drew+Python+Enchant look a lot better than Hu Tao+PC+Black. Ranger gets to be cleared, I am town, and Light is scum. So it’s looking pretty good if we just hit in the HT/PC/Black pool after taking Light out today mefeels?

[ketchup777]

I understand if people have me in that pool as well, but I think scum doggypiling Ranger here would be perceived as the obvious thing to do, which is exactly why I think they haven’t done that. wifom ig but also they didn’t know that Ranger would become confirmed, so if we somehow managed to vote out Ranger without Ranger being confronted Black+PC (and to some extent Hu Tao) would have looked a lot better

[Black]

I still think it's probably Drew and python. Ketchup is obvtown

[Black]

I haven't had the time to really dig through things. I'll try to do so after work

[Political Clout]

so why didn't we deal with the competing claims yesterday?

Because doing it the day before ELO maximizes the amount of checks that happen while still giving enough time to 1f1 people

so what's your take on the setup now?

[Hu Tao]

I still think we go light -> black -> figure out last scum

[Black]

I still think we go light -> black -> figure out last scum

Once I flip town they're going to fade you so good luck with this plan

[Hu Tao]

I still think we go light -> black -> figure out last scum

Once I flip town they're going to fade you so good luck with this plan

[usesPython]

Where we're at right now:

{Ranger} - The full conftown
{Enchant} - The conftown but too lazy to check
{Drew} - This dude town
{Hu Tao, Ketchup} - Hu Taown is townier by mech and Ketchup townier by play

---

THE LINE

---

{Black} - The wildcard
{Political Clout} - The fake cop
{light} - The confscum

We're not willing to kill anyone above the line until everyone below it is dead, if we're wrong on anyone it'd probably be Black in which case it comes down to figuring out if Schum Tao would know to fake Cop from the Disloyal Cop + Cop flips or not

[usesPython]

so why didn't we deal with the competing claims yesterday?

Because doing it the day before ELO maximizes the amount of checks that happen while still giving enough time to 1f1 people

so what's your take on the setup now?

SETUP

1. Mafia Godfather
   (light)
   
2. Mafia Godfather
   
   
3. Mafia Godfather
   
   
4. Town Disloyal Cop
   (Laplacian) - Only useful investigative
   
5. Town Cop
   
   
6. Town Cop
   
   
7. Town Cop
   
   
8. Town Cop
   
   
9. Town Cop
   
   
10. Town Cop
    
    
11. Town Cop
    
    
12. Vanilla Townie
    (Ranger) - Acts as a Named Townie
    
13. Whatever Enchant is (Probably
    Town Cop
    )

[light_ganski]

{Black} - The wildcard
{Political Clout} - The fake cop
{light} - The confscum

We're not willing to kill anyone above the line until everyone below it is dead, if we're wrong on anyone it'd probably be Black in which case it comes down to figuring out if Schum Tao would know to fake Cop from the Disloyal Cop + Cop flips or not

Fine, as long as when I flip town you eat humble pie and get rid of ranger immediately

At this point me staying alive is detrimental to the goal of us actually winning because until I flip no one will believe ranger isn't conftown

My final solve is {ranger, black} plus probably hu tao (because I still don't think PC and black can be scum together unless they just... weren't working as a team on day one)

[light_ganski]

My other bet is that the godfather thing could be a misdirect and the actual setup is something like ascetic scums (because I'm not sure why otherwise there's multiple disloyal town cops)

[usesPython]

My other bet is that the godfather thing could be a misdirect and the actual setup is something like ascetic scums (because I'm not sure why otherwise there's multiple disloyal town cops)

Everyone's been checked by multiple people so no

[usesPython]

Also Titus had an inno on Ranger

[ketchup777]

yeah that theory doesn’t stand up

I promise if you somehow flip town I will go after Ranger (and I can’t see any reason why anyone else wouldn’t)

[light_ganski]

yeah that theory doesn’t stand up

I promise if you somehow flip town I will go after Ranger (and I can’t see any reason why anyone else wouldn’t)

yh I was trying to work out what didn't work about the ascetic theory

which means theres got to be either an actual VT staying silent which is unbelievably anti-town, or I'm missing something else entirely

[light_ganski]

but I think from this playerlist if there's one person you never eliminate it's ketchup

beyond that if I'm still alive after work tomorrow I'll try and work out the third scum before I die

[light_ganski]

beyond that if I'm still alive after work tomorrow I'll try and work out the third scum before I die

and I mean that both in the sense of in-game and in the sense of whether I survive work

[ketchup777]

but I think from this playerlist if there's one person you never eliminate it's ketchup

beyond that if I'm still alive after work tomorrow I'll try and work out the third scum before I die

excitingggg

[usesPython]

We ready to start blasting people or does anyone still have stuff to add?