(micro 1101) mystery box of silver 16: tinkleton (it tinkled)

[schadd_]

vote count 2.4 !

Political Clout (2):

Gypyx, HighPrincessErinys

Psyche (1):

T3

not voting (4):

Snow2697, Psyche, Ausuka, Political Clout

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to scrimble. day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-04-04 16:37:01).

moderateur notes

• prodding snow2697

[.....treetrunk..]
[.........tree...]
[................]
[....t...........]
[....r...........]
[....e...statue..]
[....e......tree.]
[...........pond.]
[.........pond...]
[......pid.......]
[........geon....]
[................]
[....er...bush...]
[flow..bush......]
[..patchofgrass..]
[...bush...bush..]

[Ausuka]

think scum gypx is capable of seeing the value in pushing a snowtown case at this step in the game though yeah it has town equity

i mean i think most people are capable of doing most things as scum. in this game in particular i think it's difficult to read into things because scum aren't being, like, forced into things. which like i will hold my hand up and say yeah that's partially my fault but it's still true

i think it's like a counterintuitive thing to do as scum so +town

[Psyche]

is my 522 just omgus

[HighPrincessErinys]

Also Gypyx will get her own special creature feature. Going to try so so hard to actually live up to my ISO analysis promises this game.

Hype !

also we have 2 days 12 hours left

my not usually focusing on mafia ass vs the 2 day deadline :(

[Psyche]

first ill reconsider old posts...

oh in retrospect its only a little better than a null read
i liked his soliloquy about voting cakez enough to not want to lim him that day
still wonder if there's anything to anyone's votes on him
i don't think i ever saw anything really articulated

ill recant this take. not good enough in this landscape

it seems pretty easy to write a believable interpretation of my posts on this page that convey the opposite take so i guess i should credit you for not doing that

i still think this + the snow towncase makes gypx town hard to say no to
she gave up options that she didn't have to, and was reasonably convincing in the execution
still some pairings that could be plausible if we assume there's a display of skill going on here

ok re-read iso and i'm more confident that T3 is town, separately from my townread of deus

i wish id written out why i independently tr'ed t3 here
also wish someone would have called me out for not elaborating

Gypyx still looks like the scummiest player to me, it feels like she's trying too hard to play to some kind of town style rn
Klick and Ausuka feel town

Maybe i'm just town <3

have you played with cakez before?

@sircakez I'm trying to parse the above post as well why aren't they just town what screams trying hard to play town to you?

That was a while ago but it was a tonal thing, Gypyx posts felt forced to me

This is also just why I voted Gypyx

oh this is kinda meh actually

this probably discounts the independent t3 tr i had in the earlier post but i guess we'll see

sensing a level of understated dissonance between the "I do not buy this for a second" a while ago and the "It just seems weird" of this page

Think this take is underrated!

votes wo explanation aren't going to improve on yesterday's standard

i dont think ill be able to give up on my cakez read. im sorry if it's wrong


VOTE: cakez

I do not buy this for a second

In general, I think this post looks dubious in the context of what T3 posted afterwards. Along with moderating his assessment of my posting to "It just seems weird", the posts in between are rather mirthless and passive for someone who has read a post he does "not buy this for a second". I think that for most people, picking up a scumread that intense in a game where you've otherwise struggled to develop many confident takes should be more energizing.

...

still committed to the idea that the leaning to townread aureal is tonal more than anything. her town equity is overrated.
maybe is too far to discount gypx's positioning as potentially merely a display of skill, but we can at

least

assume that experienced scum players can play the tone game well.
key question for a deeper look: is there more to aureal's iso than that?

i think im ignoring various "paranoia takes" people have made that have influenced my confidence in some reads. it's maybe right to do this though...

While she's left the door open to it, I'm kinda suspicious of gypx's decline in 518 to weigh PC's relational equity more heavily. Given that she has a number of relatively strong reads in her iso, I feel like she's in a better position to reason some convincing conclusions via poe than maybe even I am atm. Her posts today suggest that she has the will to do this kind of interpretive work, so there's a tension there.

Key questions:
- How robust is gypx's towncase for snow? How plausible is it that she'd decline pushes on me/snow as scum? Does she still have a plausible path to victory if we imagine she's committed to her most consistent reads?
- Is there more to aureal's iso than a pro-town tone?
- How has HPE's posts

really

affected likelihood that the robert slot is scum?
- What reasons are people giving for finding PC scummy? How much do his pushes

really

matter for discounting hypothetical scumreads?
- Where should my read on T3/Deus be after a renewed interpretation of key posts in their isos?

[Psyche]

aureal ausuka aureal ausuka aureal ausuka there now ill never make that mistake again

[Psyche]

T3's opposition to the cakez wagon seems robust. Dived into meta, produced reasoning about cakez's claim that seems like it should have been even more compelling in retrospect. If it were just white-knighting, I think the townread would have either been half-hearted or been motivated more by gut / town / leaky reasons. The swap from Gypx to Robert for counterwagon purposes also seems organic. Is unfortunate for me, but think my T3 townread is in "I'm willing to bet the game on this" territory.

[Psyche]

One notable thing though is that is that there was real momentum to lim deus on D1, could be useful for interpretation now that I have a confident townread of the target.
Most relevant focus is probably PC's bandwagoning to bring the slot back to E-2 after I had moved off of it.
I initially favorably interpreted the subsequent unvote and explanation, but PC had some cues to notice it might look bad for him to commit to the wagon, particularly ausuka's questioning of the vote.
The explanation in 202 seems reasonable in context though.

VOTE: deus deceptor

Bye bye

VOTE: deus deceptor

Bye bye

Elaborate

UNVOTE:

I'm liking laylas entrance!!

Was your vote and unvote on Deus purely policy?

yes and no. I was starting to like what psyche was saying about the slot. plus I figured why not let people play how they want to play like who am I to say I don't wanna play with him I'm nobody.

Maybe worth noting that both gypx and ausuka declined to add momentum to the wagon, and in fact ausuka's critique of cakez's post shifted momentum elsewhere.
Think ausuka's interactions around deus/clout/cakez make her look especially good here. Helps address my concern that her readability depends on interpreting tone for sure.

[Psyche]

vote count 1.3 !

Robert2424 (4):

Snow2697, T3, Layla, SirCakez

SirCakez (2):

Ausuka, Psyche

Psyche (1):

Gypyx

Political Clout (1):

Robert2424

not voting (1):

Political Clout

with 9 alive, it takes 5 to pickle someone's peppers. day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-03-26 04:08:11).

moderateur notes

• e

[.....treetrunk..]
[.........tree...]
[.......an.......]
[....t...t.......]
[....r...........]
[....e...statue..]
[....e......tree.]
[...........pond.]
[.........pond...]
[................]
[................]
[................]
[.........bush...]
[flowerbush......]
[..patchofgrass..]
[...bush...bush..]

rather good odds of 4 town on robert here

[Psyche]

also think it unlikely that layla would have been killed N1 if her reads were bad
and all of layla's posts put robert and gypx at the bottom of her reads lists, with clout/snow safely perched above three other candidates, and only below obvtown

further think there's a lot of informational value in limming robert's slot if we can neither clear it nor agree on someone else
this post should include a take on HPE's current iso but it doesn't, vry disappointing

[HighPrincessErinys]

GYPYX!!!

Still don't understand 17 and 20. Why on earth Klick's plan of "yeah I claimed patchofgrass to generate conflict" actually worked is a mystery, but this one is at the very least inclined to call this a towny move from Gypyx. Do NOT think a seasoned player like Gypyx would jump onto Klick like this for something so minor as scum. Also 23 still does NOT strike me as self-conscious.

"your friendly vibes got me convinced you are town" is a weird thing to say but no comment otherwise. 43 WAS a good post from Ausuka.

95 is nice because it's illogical (could use a better word here but meh) on snow's part to say town are just never confident in their reads early on. This one has been DEAD CERTAIN of some reads before as town, to varying degrees of correctness. In Smuggler's Port it was certain of scum!HT and was wrong, and in micro 1096 it was certain (barring some lategame fudging) of scum!Roden

D1

and was correct in the end. Does this one think Gypyx had any real REASON to be confident? Not really, but it IS a possibility, and this one's already established that it has a very different view of RVS/earlygame and how strong reads can be then.

Using 306 to springboard my new thoughts about 295 because like... Yeah no this one just has complete motivation kersplosion sometimes. Shit happens. Don't think it's unreasonable to have your earlygame reads go up in smoke along with your spoons, or to just try and re-assess.

Consider the two paragraphs above my two cents on 78 and the general topic of Gypyx's solve confidence.

So, on one hand, 357 is yikes, but on the other, this one believes 364 as earnest wariness of a repeat situation from... whatever game she's talking about lol. Very ehh about this but it supposes it's occasionally willing to kill people it feels certain are town just for info.

Putting a pin in 435 and other related posts for later when looking at PC/Snow (be completely warned this one might delay that to D3) to see how much it agrees with her points.

lazy townies are a scam made by big mafia to sell more mislims

lol

Gypyx claims that she has solved the game.
Klick is about to do the same.
Is it too early for town player? If yes, everyone will solve it too.

as i've said before, scum is probably happy to let me on my wild goose chase

This one has reason to believe this as a possibility. You're never hearing it though.

474 took me a moment because it felt like the trajectory was undercooked but this one believes that's not quite the case.

511 self-meta CRINGE!!!!
518 is a bit more emblematic of Gypyx's earlygame confidence though, and ofc scum aren't always going to be immediately obviously teammates when you start comparing scumreads.


This one thinks it's more than willing to throw Gypyx into the nulltown basket, or maybe flat null. There's quite a bit it likes but also a fair few things that give off a sour taste. Wish this game was a bit bigger so it could save Gypyx for tomorrow, cause if we don't hit scum today it might be MeLo lmao.

[HighPrincessErinys]

time to look at all these psyche posts

[Psyche]

im so sry. it's the alternative to "i promise a really good post in two days" that i'm trying out

[HighPrincessErinys]

im so sry. it's the alternative to "i promise a really good post in two days" that i'm trying out

you are stronger than me

[HighPrincessErinys]

rather good odds of 4 town on robert here

further think there's a lot of informational value in limming robert's slot if we can neither clear it nor agree on someone else

[Psyche]

i sort of want to give HPE the game
but i've felt that way about scum before

maybe the most important part of the iso to look at is the basis for the PC read
oh i think i see an error

[HighPrincessErinys]

PC is lowkey gut rn until it properly evaluates him, propped up by some rather stinky looking pushes from him.

[Psyche]

Props to my predecessor for this one. No response from PC until... oh. He doesn't respond at all. Amazing.

PC does explain the vote/unvote around deus
i quote it and some context in 534 above

[HighPrincessErinys]

Props to my predecessor for this one. No response from PC until... oh. He doesn't respond at all. Amazing.

PC does explain the vote/unvote around deus
i quote it and some context in 534 above

This one just doesn't feel quite so good about it, especially when he dodged Ausuka's call to elaborate and later Robert's call out of said dodging.

[HighPrincessErinys]

This one really just wishes it wasn't so close to deadline and a small playerlist in general, feel like it needs time to cook still. Curse of having non-Mafia hobbies.

[Psyche]

But trust is a strong word!

I do have a thing or two I want to say, but I am intentionally hiding them for now because I’m waiting on things I want to see to happen first.

i wonder what this was
i guess pr hunters could get "vibes" from this post

[Psyche]

Okay, so I want to go over my work around sorting PC, to either a) see if I still think it's solid or b) abandon my TR.

It's very relational and PoE-based, so it's important to identify the slots that I've not ruled out as scum.
Me, T3, Ausuka are cleared. I'm close to also clearing HPE, but since I'm not at the "I'll bet the game that this read is correct" stage, it stays in the pool.

Gypyx
Snow2697
Political Clout
Robert/HighPrincessErinys

Strategy here is to reason about who PC could be scum with if he were scum. If we can't find a conceivable pairing, then we reject that he's scum.

I I originally thought that there's a lot of good reason to reject the PC/HPE pairing.
However, 489 where he says "I was suspicious of robert" is gummy enough to cast doubt on that opinion.
Still!

I liked layla's entrance but other than that it feels like they've fallen off. it might just be the gamestate though. mafia might just be comfortable here. I think we should reassess on cakez.

and go
VOTE: robert

no solving no progression

@robert can I have a readlist?

This declines an opportunity to join the sircakez wagon to vote robert.
I originally factored this a lot into my anti-relational read but there are a few factors I didn't weigh.
First, the timing of this vote was with sircakez at E-2 and me (and perhaps others?) clearly signposting that I was willing to put my vote back there as deadline gets any closer. Scum might reason that a sircakez wagon already had enough momentum that they could play for town equity instead and avoid participating in the mislim.
This vote isn't pushy enough to be interpreted as a serious attempt to derail the cakez wagon. It's short and unsubstantial, and queries robert for more takes, suggesting room for more read development.

Still, there's this sequence of earlier posts...

Deus has more personality then the lack of a profile picture. Either that or he has a random role restriction. there's is no in-between.

This reads like trying to fit into the thread to me.

I think I'm one of the few that haven't claimed. Seems many are being....reserved in one form or another.

lolque?

Vote Snow

Mainly because you don't have a profile picture.

Sounds fair. But I look at yours and see ... a predator (scum) ready to hunt a helpless townie. So,

VOTE: Robert

OMGOSH

My Gypyx vote is serious now

suffer for a thousand lifetimes

That feels personal.

This vibes as an attempt to fit into the thread.

Is weird that these earlier posts didn't come with a vote or anything. Instead PC's votes across these posts are either on sircakez or unvote. If these posts were just distancing, would including a vote look scummier or more organic?

It's also odd that none of these takes on robert's posts are mentioned in 336, which focus on an absence of progression and solving

I'm still inclined to

not

read this as scum v scum distancing. But I am seeing holes in this trajectory that I didn't notice before which could amount to an independent scumread.

[Psyche]

PC's posts around snow are similar in the way that they express suspicion without real capitalizing. PC is really indecisive here, persuadable, inclined to use his vote to bandwagon simple ideas and/or for pressure.

Honestly, I've seen him this way in other games where he turned out to be town, so I'm not really going to weigh that as scummy.

The key thing though is that I think ctrl+fing "snow" in PC's iso provides plenty of really good reasons to doubt a PC/snow pairing too.

This only leaves PC/Gypx. But Gypx has teed PC up for a lim, towncasing snow in a way that all but rules out the possibility of a snow lim today and effectively declining the permission structure I handed her to move away from a PC scumread in this post:

still think PC-scum is hard to fit in with other possible scumreads
don't really see people weighing that sufficiently, and his play is not sufficiently scummy on its own to justify that

need to think over that but i guess even if it was true it would not make me fully give up on scum PC

Either a hard bus is going on here -- maybe with gypx is taking advantage of my readiness to lean on relational reasoning for my reads -- or we have to reject the PC/Gypx pairing, too.

[Psyche]

gypx's sorting seems obliged to be pc/robert given her other commitments, and seems implied in other posts.

i find 518 kind of off in this context.

she's already discounted my anti-relational read for PC/robert and doesn't

really

have good reasons to abandon her ausuka townlock. she was comfortable calling a solve in early D1, so I expected even a somewhat tentative commitment to the pc/robert solve in her reply.

there is an available town explanation: maybe i really had shaken her confidence in her ausuka read, and maybe TPE's entrance had shaken her robert read

but i guess even then i'd expect more willingness to tackle this dissonance. the thinking behind her pc read is currently less developed than her rationale for snowtown after all

[Psyche]

btw what makes you reject a robert / PC pairing? that's the conclusion i'm getting at but it's more based on PoE than anything really

oh it's not implied

uhhh
i'll give 518 a pass maybe