Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

So there isn't actually time for you to prove your other spellcard

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Wait no nvm I'm dumb tomorrow is MELO not ELO

[Marisa Kirisame]

So there isn't actually time for you to prove your other spellcard

Or is there?

At the very least I can guarantee that it will become a 1v1 worst case scenario.

[Marisa Kirisame]

Anyway what's the VC

[Kaguya Houraisan]

VC 3.03

Kaguya Houraisan [1]:

Marisa Kirisame

Reisen Udongein Inaba [1]:

Koishi Komeiji

Kagerou Imaizumi [1]:

Yuuka Kazami

Not Voting:

Kaguya Houraisan, Aya Shameimaru, Kagerou Imaizumi, Reisen Udongein Inaba, Daiyousei

With

8

remaining,

5

votes to eliminate

Deadline:

(expired on 2024-04-06 03:46:21)

It's missing my vote on Marisa though

[Marisa Kirisame]

Kaguya do me favor and talk about your other reads.

[Marisa Kirisame]

Especially the reads you'd have in a world where I get flipped today and flip town, rendering your theory either completely or at least partially incorrect.

[Marisa Kirisame]

(partially incorrect because I still don't know Reisenvs alignment)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I remember Reisen being pretty townie on my first re-read but deviant role PM formatting + Yuuka going up from live chatting is bringing them down. If you flip town they drop to the bottom of the list
Yuuka just feels like town when I've been live chatting with her recently, though this is primarily a D3 biased read and she was flying under my radar until now
Kagerou I think would be scum by POE if you flip town but I'm wouldn't bet the game on it there. Her arguments kind of remind me of the type of arguments scum tend to use when pushing me where they use my hyper-confident playstyle and call it TMI

[Kaguya Houraisan]

this thread feels like watching Kaguya trying to pry open the PoE with a crowbar

this was a jokey post but the feeling behind it is absolutely real, Kaguya kinda feels like scum forgetting to keep up appearances in a way because they are so busy with all that's already on their mind?

Put more words to this and make me feel it.

Kaguya is acting pretty suddenly in a way that's very straight to the point and focused, it reads as if she kinda bypassed some of the steps to solving that people usually need to take, notice how a lot of her takes, come out effortlessly without a lot of solving visible to the naked eye, and while that's not inherently a scum trait, some of her posts like the one in 4595 read as if she already had an idea for a case and is fitting it the best way she can to answer Yuuka rather than like, trying to play *with* Yuuka?

This is the kind of thing I'm talking about with Kagerou, especially where if you read 4600 it's pretty clear 4595 was a rhetorical technique

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Especially the reads you'd have in a world where I get flipped today and flip town, rendering your theory either completely or at least partially incorrect.

Same to you, what are your reads if I flip town here

[Yuuka Kazami]

Either she provides a result or we murder her, cause anyone who RBs her is gonna show up on me radar.

Which, fyi, brings me to an issue.

Yuuka you are a claimed slot who could have known Clownpiece commuted N1 and someone who I am counter claiming for all that is worth. I just.... I'm struggling not to kill you, especially with my Sanae/Yuuka S/T read still in the back of me head.

I'm gonna try and focus more on reads for a bit, so... talk to me? Break shit down to me from your PoV. What's your solve?

I’ve been brain dumping all over the thread but I can put it all in one spot.

Kagerou: vig out me off them as scum. They red texted that they were scum when pushed by, I think Dai or Tenshi and then didn’t say anything about it. To me, this is a case where I don’t think their thinking feels like scum on a look. For example their observation that Kaguya is using a crowbar to get themselves out of a situation, their general lack of direction or seeming focus. There is a genuine problem with their activity and lack of a stance even if that stance is aggressively uncertain. They did provide a read’s list that was concise and to the point and I’m not sure if that was bad or not. I don’t think them being a vig makes them town. I don’t think a general perspective on the game being similar to mine makes them town. I don’t think I know their alignment and I want to and I need to push them but I haven’t.

Kaguya: they are entirely dedicated to mech spec. This grounds certain aspects that could make it easier to read them. I find how they’re pushing out only slightly townie. I find their familiarity with the mechanics slightly townie but their objective way of playing may or may not be used toward a scum win condition. They were stuck on Sanae’s mech. Now, while they’re not on me exactly, they are also on my mech. Now it’s Marisa and Reisen. I don’t know what their alignment is, it’s difficult to know their general observation can be accurate that these two, having the most hidden could be a sign of scum because I’m a hell of a lot more closed down when I’m scum to the point where it’s pretty much impossible to tell the first thing about my role or what I do. So it’s entirely possible those two are dealing with those things as well albeit, Marisa clearly has their hands on a plan now.

The jet lag thing was not awesome and Kaguya is punishing them for it. And I don’t think that’s wrong, but it is biting at a vulnerable hand. When the opportunity presents itself. Albeit I find their attack on Marisa’s, strange.

Albeit I also find Marisa’s defense strange because they’re arguing numbers and misrepresentations with strawman arguments while trying to paint them as manipulative in their approach when, on the front page, it’s not really. It’s a pretty clear cut pattern break. Noting it is fine,
Killing Marisa for it, I don’t think I agree.

Daiyousei is leaving it ambiguous whether they’re a lame duck or not. I think their play has been fairly original and while I might expect Gif to be this attention grabbing and gambity/schemey they’re the mod so I tend to just think “they’re too crazy to be scum”

Their read of me is really bad for the end game though. Like, I’m not sure they’re the type I can convince. I also think strictly speaking there’s nothing to indicate that they’re dead or that they revived or that they paid a penalty or what that penalty is.

They’ve dodged me asking about it.
Which is a major sign that they may be a non issue but they aren’t giving out like a major reads list: peace everyone. List either. Which makes me wonder if they are sticking around and then it becomes are they really sticking around?

Reissn is hard for me, they’re trivially easy to kill here. But I don’t know if it’s the right thing to do
There is a narrative of someone being left behind by the pace of the game as scum and not knowing what to claim so keeping generally quiet, unlike miller claims acetic claims are not more frequently town. They claimed it right though.

Ah, back to work. I’ll finish up later.
On phone.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Notice, there is a lack of a definitive: this is who I want to kill, this is who is more likely scum than not.

I just don't want to break empiricism so I just refuse to go that far out of the box by arguing that Aya is scum and I was right all along. It's just not a thing. It's not even distracting me and I usually tunnel pretty hard.
Which just leaves Kaguya knowing, Dai knowing, and one of Marisa or Reisen knowing through an action.
Koishi does not count. It would be too silly if Larvae tried to vig Koishi as a scum buddy for credit and then it got reflected.
Also, there's less reason to do that in a world with Kagerou. Since it's a harder sell.
Actually the whole thing doesn't work from that angle. If kagerou is scum they won't want to create this bizarre, double vig scenario.
and if they're not scum with them then they now have an argument with a vig on their hands.
One that pretty much claimed out the gate in the first place.

[Yuuka Kazami]

So are we going to force Reisen to full claim Koushi.
Did you want me there?

If we're going to do it, I want to accelerate it so we have more time to respond and think about it.

[Yuuka Kazami]

I read once that people that claim unprompted are more likely to be town than those that don't, thus the scum team is exactly Dai and Kaguya.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Kagerou claimed day 1, and Reisen claimed Ascetic day 1.
Though, I'm not sure how much that counts on the ascetic part.
Probably not very much.

This is a very slight joke. It does tilt me a little though. But Mostly in terms of Kagerou and less on Reisen, but it bothers me.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Oh, Sorry, I meant Marisa and Kaguya.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Those two are totally scum partners doing theater,
I read it in a book once.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Do town vigs normally shoot day 1.
That thought just occurred to me, but I'm pretty sure they do. Rather the curve probably isn't significant like a significant incline.
I always do it day 2 or 3. Unless the set up forces the issue in some way.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Do town vigs normally shoot day 1.
That thought just occurred to me, but I'm pretty sure they do. Rather the curve probably isn't significant like a significant incline.
I always do it day 2 or 3. Unless the set up forces the issue in some way.

Timing isn't that alignment indicative once the shot goes off, the difference is more in who they shot

[Yuuka Kazami]

I would like the reasoning for the D1 vig, not about why you shot Tenshi, I read that, but just why you felt shooting day 1. Is the right play.

[Yuuka Kazami]

I was town reading Tenshi and the feeling was mutual, so it sucked. But like.
It happens, so I didn't feel like I needed to go after Kagerou for it. Rather, it wasn't or didn't feel like a huge red flag, I also dislike the blame game. So I'm allergic to an approach that even whiffs of it.

[Yuuka Kazami]

I think there is an argument for the acceleration of reads in the game. As a reason to shoot Tenshi early.
On the other hand you're more likely to hit town and you have a greater number of protown roles with abilities to influence the game state.

And they weren't a community forwarding shot, like a shot on Sanae or Koushi(whoops!) would have been given it skips a day forward.

It does hit that sweet spot where people don't get up in arms but they were a low key town read for a lot of players, so it's a good shot for scum to make without that push back.

That's more political analysis than alignment analysis, unfortunately.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Kagerou has been the most hands off when it comes to suspicion of me.
I don't know what to make of that.
they've kind of been that way for everyone but Kaguya though.
But that leaves one more scum and I don't know if it's strange they don't have an idea of it or not. Given, well.
I obviously don't have an idea of who the scum team is.

I just have suspicions.
Everywhere. all at once. But which ones are more fucking likely than the others to be from scum?

[Yuuka Kazami]

I guess Kagerou+ Marisa + Reisen. Has the sort of vague approach to scum that's relatively innocuous.
Kaguya: Is more activity-based activity shot up after Dai came back from the grave. But that's a damned if you do, damned if you don't. Invalid. No. Not a good reason.
But their approach is based in deception and the only reason they're not in the above is because of their intentional quirk to be focused on mechanics. Which forces them to take stances based on those mechanics. Because it's a formula they're using and not approach, but they aren't really turning it off.

I also, don't have much of an actual issue with it, besides that they may be using that approach for evil.
But I don't know.