(micro 1101) mystery box of silver 16: tinkleton (it tinkled)

[Psyche]

these little cliched posts are not super helpful for sorting

i typed out a towncase for ausuka/drew. if both of you are doubting your read on this slot, can both of you maybe read it over and tell me why it's either convincing or not convincing?

[Psyche]

all im seeing in the last page from each of you is a lot of shifting to avoid committing to the solve that would be most straightforwardly implied if one of you were town

[Psyche]

is particularly jarring from gypyx
she all but played cassandra re hpe/pc through pages 25 and 26
and should have felt totally vindicated by the snow flip and also the T3 flip
but no redoubling or even an "i told ya so"
i present a solve that's isn't just completely compatible with her reads but gives it logical force
and she'd rather talk about anyone else
about how ausuka/drew have "done absolutely nothing to warrant" a tr -- which is both easily false and completely disengaged

[Psyche]

so you're saying it's easier for you to imagine me as scum than gypyx as scum

It's basically a shitpost solve, goober. This one really fundamentally just wants PC to show the fuck upppppppppppppppp already

ok. would be nice to see some work at actual solving. pc has a lengthy iso. have outlined a lot of thoughts about it. at this point he very probably can be sorted or poed, even if you don't agree with my take on him. don't think pause button is called for. he is unlikely to produce much additional sortable content today anyway, particularly with voting out of the picture.

[Psyche]

i typed out a towncase for ausuka/drew. if both of you are doubting your read on this slot, can both of you maybe read it over and tell me why it's either convincing or not convincing?

[Psyche]

ughh
if you're not feeling it this game, then whatever
maybe just put enough work into deciding if you TR me or not and then sheep me when the time comes
you get to blame me for how things go too

[Psyche]

had the thought last night that maybe it's my fault
maybe im the reason no one wants to play

[Psyche]

i still really dont think it's pc. of course i dont think a gypyx/pc pairing is even possible. have outlined the reasons. guess they'll go ignored.

[Psyche]

so hpe is here, just not interested in any of the questions i asked. good to know

[Psyche]

and im right to guess gypyx has outright declined to answer, yes? due to feeling disconnected?

[Psyche]

snow was pretty absent too guys. flipped town i think

[Psyche]

t3 too iirc

[Psyche]

ok. i just checked. yeah, we might need to consider the possibility that active slots can be scum too. maybe

[Psyche]

so if it's pc, and it's not hpe, and it's not me, then it must be gypyx right? no or yes?

[Psyche]

I'm feeling in a quite disconnected mood these days so yeah it's hard, especially regarding this game where i didn't have any big certaineties to start with

like, i'm not saying it's AI but i even forgot T3 died, i hope it's hard following coherent stuff

also this is part of why the behavior in 702 is suspicious
lazy disconnected gypyx doesn't flip the table and start her reads over from scratch after her towncased slot(s) flip how she said they would.
she presses on w a dash of meh
she doesn't commit to more thinking, more worrying about a game she's not invested in

[Psyche]

i am open to any slot being scum or town or whatever. if given good reasons for thinking so that withstand scrutiny.

[Psyche]

i am too much of the thread. two days soft break.

[Psyche]

VOTE: gypyx

[Psyche]

so you think i'm scum. wanna lay out any reasons?

[Psyche]

if you're not well the game is ending sooner or later

am not really seeing the logic here. if you convinced me that you are town or that two other players were scum, i'd probably move my vote if i were town, right?

the way you've been playing recently seemed like a deliberate attempt to angle the game towards me too

and why is it unlikely that my reason for doing this isn't that i am town and think you're scum?

[Psyche]

still not seeing any reasons you disbelieve that it's actual reasoning

[Psyche]

and i don't really care about making a case

well then if you are town, i hope you don't fault me too much for not changing my own mind about it.

[Psyche]

i can't pull water from a stone. would love to find confidence that you really believe your reads. would need to see and examine thought process to do that. you're not sharing it. oh well. but this aligns with my expectations. imo this is a safe vote and there will probably be no speedlim to interrupt our massclaim.

[Psyche]

if there is no speedlim after PC returns for enough time, then only two possibilities will explain why.
either i am scum and don't have enough buddies to secure the hammer,
or you are scum, and your buddy would like to win today.

equally interesting is the fact that you have a vote on PC. let's see how that goes.

[Psyche]

i have not asked for a detailed case, certainly not with footnotes. i asked for reasons. "case" was your word

[Psyche]

think the emotional abuse was unwarranted. am just playing the game and haven't made any personal attacks.

[Psyche]

i dont believe you.

and also, the town mindset explanation is pretty straightforward.
if i'm town and confident you're scum, this vote does not risk losing the game and also gains information that will help other slots see that you're scum.
am to believe you can't see why i might feel confident that you're scum?

[Psyche]

no it's not

i'm just kinda bad at this game and all

i shouldn't have to walk through why posts like these aren't convincing answers to the reasons i've brought up for scumreading you
(but i have -- in post 720)

[Psyche]

can't really follow what you're trying to say inside those quotation marks

[Psyche]

think this reply dodges the q i asked in 752

some other questions that i feel like have been dodged:

1) where is your ausuka/drew read right now? and why? do you still think the slot has done nothing that could warrant a townread? how did you come you think this?
2) how do you interpret ausuka's posting around deus/cakez/pc around deus's wagon if she could be scum?
3) In particular, why does scum-ausuka decline to accept cakez's reasoning and to add momentum to the deus wagon around post 115?

[Psyche]

well this is what i'm reading in your post so clearly there's some massive disconnect here

could try taking out the words you inserted and just read the ones that are there

the post says it's more likely that someone who

a) feels disconnected from the game, and
b) observes flips consistent with their pre-existing reads

will anchor to and press on with those pre-existing reads
instead of abruptly abandoning them

[Psyche]

i'm honestly too exhausted to do all that backreading and trying to recall my thoughts and stuff

that's fine. later then.

[Psyche]

i think not being attached to any worldview in melo is scummy

I have no attachement to any worldview, i'm just fully living in the present and trying to see something that catches my interest (that something being my conversation with you right now)

yeah, i don't find that a believable trajectory. i think it's considerably more likely that you're scum and just open to all options that exclude you or your buddy.

[Psyche]

i didnt actually mean to post that first line. it's actually null at this point in the abstract to not be attached to any worldview in melo. unfortunately.
i think you're probably scum because of the lack of attachment + how you played D2

[Psyche]

so, still not believable that i feel this way, for vibe reasons unamenable to any scrutiny

[Psyche]

when it was me putting on this "oh im too tired and disconnected" act i never pretended that poor ol psyche getting mislimmed would be anyone's but his own fault

but heyyy
if im scum then you're also at negligible risk of getting speedlimmed
means you get to rest easy huh

[Psyche]

personally i think you haven't really put in much effort to get through to me just yet -- beyond the AtE
you're too

tired

and stuff to elab on reads, address why i find your posts scummy, or challenge the premises behind my poe
maybe later, after some rest

[Psyche]

i don't

know

. but im confident enough to bet. i guess in contrast to everyone else here i believe that there is sortable content in this thread's 32 pages.

[Psyche]

UNVOTE:

will put this back, but need to not think about the thread for a few hours.

[Psyche]

drew
where do we go from here?
what's up for discussion?
what's not up for discussion?

[Psyche]

pc scum implies gypyx scum
considering their trajectories/votes this game, can you really see them being scum together?

[Psyche]

ok but can you weigh the question

[Psyche]

we need a consensus for today to go well
you should be at least as interested in convincing me of your reads as the other way around

[Psyche]

unfortunately, townreading me and hpe already does commit you to a scumteam before a scumflip

anyway it sounds like you opting not to consider the question of whether it's believable that gypyx and pc can be a pair

[Psyche]

imo there's playing in a way to achieve a scenario, and then there's doing so in a way that actually looks organic and town-motivated. there's a difference. for example, gypx has votes/attacks for hpe and robert that i don't think definitively disassociate them.

yeah i personally would townlock gypyx if pc flipped scum. this is because i think gypyx sincerely tried to get pc limmed yesterday and also today.

(i probably should have weighed this higher yesterday before deciding whether to push her or snow)

by the way, worth pointing out that i don't find her votes for me today believable in the slightest.

[Psyche]

bah
i guess this ends with us compromising on gypyx
pc sure seemed open the last time i checked
(but nah nothing to read into that)

[Psyche]

yesterday i put snow and gypyx on the table as the two lims i was considering committing to for a lim. immediately after that, pc voted gypyx, encouraging me to take that fork in the road.

[Psyche]

sticking these observations in multi-line posts keeps people from noticing them i guess

[Psyche]

ive put a lot of weight on ausuka's decision not to pile on deus when the opportunity came. she instead decided to launch substantive attacks and scrutiny on cakez/pc. lost momentum by D2 but her explanations for it are reasonably convincing. i guess that should still be sufficient for a strong townread. still don't think there's an error there.

[Psyche]

hpe about 12 hours from needing a prod too

[Psyche]

i wrote 675/676 almost just for you drew and your 800 slips that you didn't even skim it i am at the end of my rope

[Psyche]

can we really not just skip this? everyone either doesn't want to play or is scum. we don't have to play to deadline going in a circle seeing who can put on the most convincing "im here but dont expect me to do anything" act. this whole game is optional.

you haven't read the game. you've townlocked me. i have read the game. you aren't in the mood to do it any time soon. i want to see if my reads were right. how about we just run with that?

[Psyche]

at this point it's only the pc claim that matters. if anyone else held sortable information they'd have made it obvious right now. i've even lost the chance to fakeclaim a guilty to make things go my way.

[Psyche]

no no im being whiny about a game it's lame and uncalled for

[Psyche]

im ok waiting for pc's slot. but not so much because of the claim but because they might say something sortable when i ask for their reads and reactions to certain things.

[Psyche]

also, i really think you're underrating how wild it would be if gypyx and pc were scum together and it weren't for ausuka i'd suspect you over it

[Psyche]

i voted gypyx because she's scum
i think you're wrong about pc/hpe
and i don't really understand the point of quoting those posts; they aren't relevant to my stances

[Psyche]

my iso is full of reasons i think gypyx is scummy.....

[Psyche]

just to reiterate: why does pc sheeping me on snow say anything about his relationship with gypyx?

[Psyche]

it weren't for ausuka i'd suspect you over it

kinda true this one thinks a scum!drew could be coasting by on vibes and the heavy-lifting of ausuka

also want to highlight that HPE is only paying attention to posts like 810 and not my towncase posts on ausuka
today, she's expressed openness to scumreading everyone this game except gypyx, who she made a whole wallpost to announce is null yesterday

this is because she is buds with gypyx and doesn't want to commit to a solve that includes gypyx, which would be directly implied by her TRing you and me. She wants to preserve cover not to vote Gypyx if she's ever pressured to, and does not want to nudge us to act on our consensus view that gypyx is scum.

This is also why you're not seeing HPE do anything to progress her reads from yesterday. She doesn't have the stones? No, she needs the flexibility.

[Psyche]

pc trusts me is why he sheeped me with snow. he was convinced of my poe to hpe/snow/gypyx the same i was. in general (across games), he often sheeps people he trusts instead of playing the game. also, when he did try to opt for gypyx to be limmed in 550-ish (i think), i declined it.

he has plenty of other posts that convince that his willingness to lim gypyx. and gypyx in fact has many

more

posts that convince that she wanted pc dead.

in fact, in the wallpost i whined about you not reading, i said that the best evidence against gypyx/pc was in gypyx's iso, not pc's.

[Psyche]

also, just like me, pc knows that there are two scum in this game? in that context it's perfectly reasonable to accept another option if a strong TR prefers that other option and you find the option minimally acceptable.

[Psyche]

my apologies

[Psyche]

town HPE might still seek input from PC here but imo would be much more sanguine about gypyx's likelihood of being scum.

[Psyche]

ill just keep beating the "it can't be gypyx/pc" drum until we're ready for gypyx i guess. on you what happens tomorrow

[Psyche]

viewtopic.php?t=92345

here's a game where pc played like he has in this game and turned to be (thankfully confirmed) town

[Psyche]

problem is that iso isn't great for tracking context
idk how id decide if a vote really wanted a slot dead if i were in an iso

[Psyche]

in a perfect world each living player would post and explain a read on every slot including a likert scale rating of confidence in that read. they would also convey a stance on relevant 2-player solves allowed by their reads.

they'd also read at least my 550/551 and have a take on each leg of my current stance that is more specific than "i do or do not find this convincing"

my posts since 550/551 have mostly been me whining that there's been no discussion of it. i can accept if it's not persuasive, and even if i can be convinced that it's wrong.

but i think town maxes out its odds by trading and evaluating solves until a consensus — not a compromise — is formed that blends the combined wisdom of the group.

[Psyche]

problem is that iso isn't great for tracking context
idk how id decide if a vote really wanted a slot dead if i were in an iso

You said Gyp's iso has all I need to know about why she and PC aren't buddies

in the iso you can try jumping to the posts with mentions/votes for PC and decide whether the vote/push had a real shot of leading to a PC lim at the time

if you feel differently from me even after doing that, then maybe we can figure out why and i'll either moderate my position or the opposite or we'll agree to disagree and hopefully seek compromise.

[Psyche]

mobile-friendly cases sounds like the next trick i should try to learn

[Psyche]

I think they're not buddies because they both seriously pushed one another at different points in the game,
when it would not have been in their interests to do so if they were a pairing together.

I'll quote each little episode that convinces me me this.

[Psyche]

just a new excuse to sit on hands

[Psyche]

you're lying about scumreading me

[Psyche]

and about why you've done nothing to develop your reads today

[Psyche]

gypyx is better than 843
she demonstrated more robust reasoning ability earlier in this game, and also in the game we had together
she can't do so atm because it's against her win condition

viewtopic.php?t=92212


(don't expect drew to delve into meta but maybe pc's replacement)

[Psyche]

she's better than 848 too

[Psyche]

i don't realize
i think you're scum

[Psyche]

Below is the votecount around 550 and some posts around that time.
There was clear momentum to eliminate PC.
A plausible scenario at this game state would've been for snow and ausuka to join the wagon.
My conclusion: as either town or scum, PC has strong incentive to get momentum going on a different wagon.

Sidebar: one of the votes in this dominant wagon against PC is from Gypyx!

Spoiler:

vote count 2.4 !

Political Clout (2):

Gypyx, HighPrincessErinys

Psyche (1):

T3

not voting (4):

Snow2697, Psyche, Ausuka, Political Clout

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to scrimble. day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-04-04 16:37:01).

moderateur notes

• prodding snow2697

[.....treetrunk..]
[.........tree...]
[................]
[....t...........]
[....r...........]
[....e...statue..]
[....e......tree.]
[...........pond.]
[.........pond...]
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[........geon....]
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[....er...bush...]
[flow..bush......]
[..patchofgrass..]
[...bush...bush..]

I end up giving PC a bone.
Up through 550, I make a series of analysis posts trying to decide my stance on each of the slots still in the game.
To pagetop, I summarize my stance on who could be scum -- 2 of HPE/Gypx/Snow
I announce that "my best bet is on the duo actually being gypx and snow":

Spoiler:

gypx's snowcase was maybe a forced move after pressure around her initial snow positioning; i won't so strongly townweight it
also, the towncase isn't super compelling on its own. some assertions are a bit too inflexible about how scum choose posts to make
i don't really believe HPE is scum at this point and I don't think PC can be scum with HPE, Gypx,

or

Snow
so my best is on the duo actually being gypx and snow

This is an opportunity for PC,

regardless

of his faction.
I am universally townread by post 550. This means I hold considerable sway over the town.
PC voting with me would be enough to match the votes currently on him, and present the best odds of him surviving the day.
But he is at a fork in the road.
He can either nudge me to gypx, or to snow.
He picks Gypyx.

Spoiler:

VOTE: gypyx


I'll be here tomorrow. after 2. I think gypyx is just dancing around the players.

I'm confident that PC had

every

reason to think that his vote for Gypyx would encourage me to do the same.
I'd expressed a townread on him and had spent most of my analysis posts convincing myself that gypyx could be scum.
I also had good reasons at this point that I'd have a hard time moving momentum away from PC.


Now let's consider how his and gypyx's faction would impact his decison-making.
If his top goal is killing momentum against him, the most decisive question should be: "who is the easiest elimination?"

Snow is the easiest elimination at this point. Why?
Snow is a lurker through this day and all the rest.
By comparison, Gypyx on D2 is a reasonably active poster, making cases, and reasoning about reads.

Gypyx demonstrates by 550 that, in contrast to snow, she is
1) active and around to defend her self, and
2) capable of effective posting to that effect.

PC has tons of reasons to believe he's better off in a 1v1 vs Snow than in a 1v1 vs Gypyx.
But PC votes Gypyx.

PC already has good reasons as scum to prefer voting snow, even if we imagine he's not buds with Gypyx!

But if PC and Gypyx are in fact both scum, he has

even stronger

reasons to vote snow.
This is because the win condition for scum is to outnumber town.
Picking a 1v1 with a stronger player over a 1v1 with a weaker player already makes little sense.
It makes even worse sense if that player is your bud, unless you're already planning to be limmed that day and want to distance.

So I have to ask you drew or whomever replaces PC:
If PC and Gypyx are both scum, why does he try to swing me toward gypyx here instead of snow?

What could

possibly

be his reason?

[Psyche]

I'll try to summarize:

1) Because of the current votecount and my post 550, PC's 551 is best interpreted as an attempt to swing momentum against Gypyx.
2) PC's attempt to swing momemtum toward Gypyx in 551 is unlikely under a Gypyx/PC scumteam because he could have voted for Snow instead.
3) Scum-PC would have had every reason to prefer a snow vote in 551, especially if he were in a team with Gypyx.
4) The solve-neutral reason for preferring Snow was that this slot was inactive and ineffective, giving PC better prospects of winning a 1v1 with Gypyx there.
5) But under a Gypyx/PC pair, PC also would have wanted to preserve the possibility of winning on D3.
6) These factors should have outweighed the potential benefits of distancing that could come from a vote, particularly because a PC lim was by no means a foregone conclusion a 550 -- Gypyx was 50% of the wagon at that point.

Since PC had such weak reasons to vote Gypyx in 551 if both slots are scum, we should substantially discount the likelihood of the pairing.

[Psyche]

giving PC better prospects of winning a 1v1

with Gypyx

there.

ebwop

[Psyche]

mental note: i had some reasons for scumreading ausuka in post 476 but they are now defunct now that we have a snow flip

[Psyche]

Gypyx's trajectory in D2 is a push on PC that -- once snow was a foregone conclusion and deadline was close and I'd made a big deal of she/pc not being a team -- later shifted into half-hearted positioning against HPE that she didn't follow up on come D3.
This makes me confident that the PC push was genuine; she stuck with it until a snow lim was a foregone conclusion.

In 518, Gypyx also had a fork in the road moment and decided in a way inconsistent with her being in a team with PC
Here's the votecount at the time.
HPE had just decided to put a tentative vote on PC, putting the wagon at E-2.
Gypyx is already on the PC wagon, so her choice is whether to stay or keep pressing on.

Spoiler:

Psyche (1):

T3

Political Clout (2):

Gypyx, HighPrincessErinys

not voting (4):

Snow2697, Psyche, Ausuka, Political Clout

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to scrimble. day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-04-04 16:37:01).

In 516, I critique HPE's vote and argue that a PC scumread is relationally implausible based on reasoning I'd shared earlier the thread.

Spoiler:

still think PC-scum is hard to fit in with other possible scumreads
don't really see people weighing that sufficiently, and his play is not sufficiently scummy on its own to justify that

If Gypyx is scum with PC, this is one of her several potential offramps for ditching the wagon.
She has a few options -- take it, decline it, or just to keep it on the table in case she decides that she benefits most from not bussing her scumbud and forcing the game to last through D4.
She declines it in 518.

Spoiler:

still think PC-scum is hard to fit in with other possible scumreads
don't really see people weighing that sufficiently, and his play is not sufficiently scummy on its own to justify that

need to think over that but i guess even if it was true it would not make me fully give up on scum PC

I again think her departure from the PC wagon once it was doomed is a sign that her push wasn't motivated by a desire for distancing.
When your goal for a push you've committed to for most of a day is to convince people that you and your bud are not a team, you avoid sending mixed signals about it.
In a team with PC, Gypyx has been spending D2 distancing from him, and has no reason to muddy the waters by shifting from one doomed wagon to another.
She could have just kept swinging the "PC is scum" flag all day.

(All this is not a scumcase for Gypyx. I have other posts about that.)

[Psyche]

oh it turns out those arent the right post number
i think it's like 675/676?

[Psyche]

i have no idea what you're talking about

[Psyche]

676 is not speculation. it's simulation. it's identifying the solves implied by my stances in 675

[Psyche]

i did not make up a faulty negative position about gypyx on snow. i argued that it was possible from gypyx's towncase on snow to come from scum as a result of pressure to explain an initially conveyed read and also as a matter of calculation.

[Psyche]

in 675 you say you think Gypyx's push on PC was real, implying both they're not paired, as was your point, but that also it was a genuine read from town, and not a bad push from scum

This is the part that most confuses me.
Thinking gypyx's push on PC was real is different from thinking that Gypyx's push on PC was from town.
All it takes for a push to be real is for it to actually intend for the target of the push to end up limmed.
Scum can make real pushes.

[Psyche]

And, hey, if we vote out PC's slot now... we can test your "it can't be Gypyx/PC" theory!

If we vote on PC's slot now, and he's town, then we lose. It's MELO.

[Psyche]

But do you honestly expect me to believe it was all just a hypothesis? There has to be pressure about her snow positioning for there to be that maybe, Psyche.

the word "maybe" is in my post. i acknowledged it was possible for gypyx's snow case to come from town

[Psyche]

in 675 you say you think Gypyx's push on PC was real, implying both they're not paired, as was your point, but that also it was a genuine read from town, and not a bad push from scum

This is the part that most confuses me.
Thinking gypyx's push on PC was real is different from thinking that Gypyx's push on PC was from town.
All it takes for a push to be real is for it to actually intend for the target of the push to end up limmed.
Scum can make real pushes.

Then we simply have different connotations of what a real push is.

I think I'm closer to the ordinary meaning of these words, but fine, If you say so! Now you know what I meant when I said "real push" and are better able to interpret my posts accurately.

[Psyche]

This back and forth just convinces me further that you're mafia. I don't think anyone can seriously believe I'm scum given the ISO I've put out this game. You're stretching to misinterpret my posts to enable a solve that gives you permission not to vote Gypyx once deadline gets close.

[Psyche]

But do you honestly expect me to believe it was all just a hypothesis? There has to be pressure about her snow positioning for there to be that maybe, Psyche.

the word "maybe" is in my post. i acknowledged it was possible for gypyx's snow case to come from town

You acknowledged it was possible but you were still presenting a literally impossible idea within the bounds of what you're saying the post was.
"gypx's snowcase was maybe a forced move after pressure around her initial snow positioning" is just LYING if there's NO PRESSURE AROUND HER INITIAL SNOW POSITION IN THE

FIRST PLACE.

It does not matter if her snowcase is from town or scum, you said something blatantly incongruent with the facts of the game.

You are wrong; there was pressuring.

[Psyche]

Here is Gypyx starting D2 with a stance on Snow:

Snow is obviously struggling but i kinda like where his head's at in a general sense, there's also a few smaller towntells here and there

actually it's PC who i'm getting my eye on right now (as well as robert but this read is getting a bit stale)

PC seems very complaceant and happy to keep the game in it's state of semi-stagnation, the insistance on Psyche and the cakez post for instance really feels like willingly going down a dead end

Here is Ausuka pressuring Gypyx to elaborate on her Snow stance instead of leaving it there:

Snow is obviously struggling but i kinda like where his head's at in a general sense, there's also a few smaller towntells here and there

actually it's PC who i'm getting my eye on right now (as well as robert but this read is getting a bit stale)

PC seems very complaceant and happy to keep the game in it's state of semi-stagnation, the insistance on Psyche and the cakez post for instance really feels like willingly going down a dead end

Where exactly is Snow's head at to you

Here is Political Clout -- another player -- pressuring Gypyx to elaborate on her Snow stance instead of leaving it there:

Snow is obviously struggling but i kinda like where his head's at in a general sense, there's also a few smaller towntells here and there

can you go over this in more detail? I think I am scumleaning snow for basically narrating the game.

Here is Gypyx's initial reply to these queries:

Snow is obviously struggling but i kinda like where his head's at in a general sense, there's also a few smaller towntells here and there

actually it's PC who i'm getting my eye on right now (as well as robert but this read is getting a bit stale)

PC seems very complaceant and happy to keep the game in it's state of semi-stagnation, the insistance on Psyche and the cakez post for instance really feels like willingly going down a dead end

Where exactly is Snow's head at to you

well that's exactly the thing, i think snow himself is kinda confused on where his head's at ? in a town way ofc

Gypyx makes the following post in part because two other slots pressured her to do so:

Gypyx claims that she has solved the game.
Klick is about to do the same.
Is it too early for town player? If yes, everyone will solve it too.

as i've said before, scum is probably happy to let me on my wild goose chase

Gypyx claims that she has solved the game.
Klick is about to do the same.
Is it too early for town player? If yes, everyone will solve it too.

I have 2 scumreads

these 2 scumreads make sense in a team together

A town would usually hesitate and cannot be confident about status of the player. Especially on D1.
Game solved means that there is confidence and no hesitation.
And yes, scumread does not mean scum.

Well what can i say, i'm telling you i'm that confident in my reads

not excluding that i am wrong, but so far i feel like that's a gameview that has very decent odds of being right

Ok. If you are so confident, would you agree that if one of your chosen suspects is limmed and turns town, then you should and would be limmed next day?

i'll admit, this one is the most iffy post snow made, but still, there's an attempt to keep people accountable, i kinda like it

Cakez called Ausuka, Psyche and Layla as towns and Gypyx as scum. These four and Robert are ready to lim him.

So, on Cakez' own case he should be limmed. He should have a better excuse than to say that his role requires him not to be limmed for 2 full days.

I can also hammer if needed, but Psyche seems to want more information, so will wait for a while.

This is snow's biggest attempt at generating his own reads and like, i doubt scum!snow feels the need to make this post? Basically it's a bit too convoluted to be a fabrication by scum!snow when there was a lot of steps he could choose to go through before

Well. N2 watcher means that a player should leave for 2 full days and nights to report on D3 be helpful to the town, yes? When there are potentially 3 towns and 2 scums, so an ELo?

kinda mindmelded with that and like, i think scum!snow would be self conscious enough to *not* deliberately choose to copy what i've said previously

Now that I've quoted all these posts in order, tell me again that Gypyx was not pressured at all to present a towncase on snow.

[Psyche]

god i hate how the site redesign made quotes look

[Psyche]

This one checked! You can check yourself! There was no Snow position for any one TO pressure until she started townreading him.

Yes there was. post 435

[Psyche]

gypx's snowcase was maybe a forced move after pressure around her initial snow positioning

This is the claim you're critiquing.
I showed you that Gypyx

did

have an initial snow position that she expressed in post 435. This initial positioning conveyed a townread without providing specific reasons for thinking so.

I further showed you that she was pressured to elaborate on that read by

two

separate players -- Ausuka and PC -- in posts 458 and 463. I used the word "pressured" because if she refused to do this elaboration, she could have reasonably expected to face further suspicion and evne a vote.

I finally showed that Gypyx's towncase on Snow was at least in part motivated and was timed immediately after the above pressuring in posts 468 and 470.

These posts are how I came to update my position on how towntelling her Snowcase was.

[Psyche]

how can we make it more fun?

Can you claim? Then I'd love to get your reads on stuff. Can even back and forth if you're one of those people who are into that.

[Psyche]

how can we make it more fun?

make it make sense

I'll try my best but I'm not always super great at that

the main thing i'd really love for you to do is check over my work, tell me if i'm missing something. but we don't have to rush to that.

anyway yeah we are in a massclaim. it is melo. it's been PC's turn all day. please go ahead and claim.

[Psyche]

also hpe im gonna have to ask you to promptly tell me whether you still think think i was lying about gypyx being pressured to towncase snow

[Psyche]

aw i was hoping you'd stick to your guns. the clarity would have been amazing

[Psyche]

Uhhhhh. I don't want to guide you too much.
I'll just summarize my reads.

I think I am town! I think you'll think I'm town soon too maybe.

I also feel pretty sure that drew is town. I believe this mainly because of ausuka's behavior around the deus wagon D1, but overall her iso is solid, though she fell off ahead of her replace-out.

This narrows the game to finding the single townie among you, hpe, and gypyx.
I will consequently be very disappointed if you don't commit to the hpe/gypyx solve based on the pure force of how town ausuka/I have been playing.

Based on an analysis of votes each slot has taken, I am very committed to the position that Gypyx and you/PC cannot be a team together.
But other players (at least 1 town) aren't super convinced by this analysis.

The two positions that:

a) ausuka is town and that
b) Gypyx and you/PC are not buddies

means that only two solves are viable for me:
HPE + Gypyx
HPE + you/PC

I am inclined to the first solve because I find Gypyx's posts scummy. But theoretically I should prefer that we lim HPE today, since it is in both solves.

[Psyche]

gotta underline that there are already 3 slots inclined to vote you (drew/hpe/gypyx)
most troublesomely, drew thinks HPE is town
and i'm also trying to stay open to being wrong about a lot of stuff
so, on your toes
as is custom

[Psyche]

i also said that!
i wonder if you'll also take note of another thing from D1

[Psyche]

yeah i had to strongly upweight my eval of T3 once i realized he (and cakez) were completely right about that

[Psyche]

I'm going to let my thoughts on the hammer post roll around in my head a little longer I think

woah that's the most believable rationale for scumreading me that i've seen so far

[Psyche]

as someone who knows that we lose if its voted out today, we should probably kersplode gypyx

which scum teams do you see as viable?

This is a real bitch of a question to answer because you and gypyx is unlikely, but then that leaves only me and gypyx or gypyx and The Other Consensusly Townread Slots. like. yikes.

just having reads on slots isn't going to help anymore - town need to find pairs of two players who can be scum together to eliminate to win the game.

where have u been all

my life

this game

[Psyche]

Like, on an individual scumread level, Gypyx basically for sure, but when trying to put together a team? Jeeesus things look grim for my sanity.

haha i remember making this post as scum

[Psyche]

sorry, I'm just still not convinced!

[Psyche]

made some posts for you drew replying to your request — on the page starting with post 850
there's a summary of the initial long post in the post after it!
good luck

[Psyche]

i found some posts in layla's iso that could have conceivably motivated a pr-fishing-type nk so yeah we have to downweight it

[Psyche]

HPE's iso in general has these pbpes that are kind of dazzling though ultimately hard for me to decisively form a read on

[Psyche]

also im a weeb and it pocketed me a little by appealing to that. devious!

[Psyche]

rather good odds of 4 town on robert here

further think there's a lot of informational value in limming robert's slot if we can neither clear it nor agree on someone else

very unethical post tbh

[Psyche]

we're all VTs and it's great

[Psyche]

i specifically find ausuka's posts around cakez/deus/pc really town-telling.
my guess about the drop in her towniness is that she just lost jazz for this game.
but it can only be a guess at this point.
if there's anything to gain from reading D3 beyond my multiposting -- it's maybe getting a closer look at drew

[Psyche]

how about let's just mindmeld and see how that goes. are we agreed about gypyx at least?

[Psyche]

that's better for me, but

would

require more work to convince drew. or to convince gypyx lol

but honestly don't know where drew will go after all this. hard to imagine he'll still scumread your slot.

[Psyche]

wow,

[Psyche]

hmm so i guess im dying tonight

[Psyche]

how much weight should we put on the fact that scum killed T3 and not me? seems a little odd if i held the solve, am easy to townread, and honestly can't help but try to control every day no matter how bad my reads are

[Psyche]

like my thought terminating guess is "well psyche fked up 2 days in a row he can do it again"

[Psyche]

ugghh. i really have a hard time believing you have these reads drew!

talk to me. what's so town about HPE? at least quote a post you're blown away by

[Psyche]

but why does drew even persist this discord if he's scum? i think it can only make sense if gypyx is also scum.

[Psyche]

but why does drew even persist this discord if he's scum? i think it can only make sense if gypyx is also scum.

the reasoning is that if flipping gypyx wins the game for drew, all he has to do is say "yeah worst is town" and wait for checkmate

[Psyche]

ok i'm now like 100% convinced that gypyx is scum in all possible worlds (the world where drew is town, the world where drew is scum).
but now we must figure out who gypyx's buddy is

[Psyche]

ugghh. i really have a hard time believing you have these reads drew!

talk to me. what's so town about HPE? at least quote a post you're blown away by

Why?

I have been town reading you pretty hard, and hpe to a lesser extent(and yes, there literally is one hpe post I will quote in a moment that when I read it I said 'yup, that one is town's)

So that leaves Gyp and worst to me(which I know we will never agree on lol)

you have to see why i find this unacceptable!

argh either town or scum you are this game's final boss for me

[Psyche]

ausuka's iso lowkey leans against a pairing with gypyx but i can't find anything concrete enough to feel convinced. ill look a lttle more closely

[Psyche]

ausuka has loadss of interactions with gypyx this should be solveable -- at least for us!

[Psyche]

when i ctrl+f "gyp" in ausuka's iso and read each post w a result i can't help but think they aren't a team. posts like 526, 458, 460 -- even discouting her placing gypyx near the bottom of her readslist in D1, these posts look like they're genuinely trying to sort gypyx. This plus my independent reasons for townreading ausuka incline me to commit to my stable solve.

[Psyche]

lol id rather drew be scum at this point. so inconvenient

[Psyche]

we wouldve limmed you before replacement if it was me/drew

[Psyche]

maybe there's a way to use the power of melo to solve this for drew. lemme think....

[Psyche]

pc/gypyx is a solve until you read their isos

[Psyche]

pc/gypyx is a solve until you read their isos

If it is correct, I expect a formal written apology on my desk as soon as the game ends...lol

sure! your desk at the chicago law office

[Psyche]

ausuka's iso lowkey leans against a pairing with gypyx but i can't find anything concrete enough to feel convinced. ill look a lttle more closely

I probably won't have a chance to do this over the next few hours. That would be very convenient!! if you're not scum and I'm not scum and gypyx/drewsuka isn't a solve then this game gets really easy for me. also wary that others need a solve which potentially shows me not being guarantees town I guess.

flash forward to a psyche/drew scumteam standing triumphantly in endgame this joke isn't even original hpe had it first but as a read

sry is 1010 not closely enough just checking i am lazy

[Psyche]

yknow, i just tried to think through what would happen if i just went ahead and voted HPE and then i did a little game theory and realized drew might respond by voting PC

fine! i won't do it

[Psyche]

i think 526 kinda fits in with her cautious note about the cakez wagon she started and i overcommitted to

[Psyche]

yeah yeah
but ausuka's D1 was townie too!
i think this + the gypyx antipair should be enough to make you go "oh well i guess i have to accept this amount of uncertainty and go on with my life"

[Psyche]

in particular, i think it's super notable that ausuka declined the deus wagon and turned on cakez instead. she had a solid permission structure from cakez's case on deus to sheep and make the lim happen before anyone would come to their senses.

[Psyche]

even klick was ready to policy deus! and klick is esteemed i think

[Psyche]

ausuka could've prepared to go something like "this is a decent post. i don't think it's certain that deus is scum but the significant likelihood that he is plus how harmful his play is for town make him as good a choice for D1 as anyone" and then bam, day maybe ends by the next page

[Psyche]

VOTE: deus deceptor

Bye bye

your slot woulda been the hammer right after scum-ausuka's vote. cakez would probably still be the leading option come D2

[Psyche]

VOTE: deus deceptor

Bye bye

your slot woulda been the hammer right after scum-ausuka's vote. cakez would probably still be the leading option come D2

or PC. anyway, beside the point

[Psyche]

if we could get HPE today then everything would be clear. i could rest soundly. but actually maybe i should rest easy either way. being right is its own reward (BUT I WAS WRONG FIRST)

[Psyche]

you don't understand, drew.

this

one is personal. i beat gypyx in a melo scenario as scum in a recent game. she wants revenge. we can't give her that. i'm too innocent to experience the taste of revenge. please

[Psyche]

wait. let's think through what happens if you vote HPE while drew is not on board.

[Psyche]

hmmm. from drew's pov, if worst votes HPE then there's still no risk of quicklim happening since worst is scum. the real risk is if i sheep worst.

[Psyche]

Okay. Drew. I'm thinking of doing this wagon with the worst. if you ask me not to, I won't.
But if I do, then this will quickly test your theory that worst is scum -- but by risking the game.
Her teammate (gypyx) will swoop in and hammer HPE and the game will be over.

[Psyche]

But if you assent, here is why you should not respond by starting a wagon on worst:

Under the scenario where worst is scum, you starting a wagon on worst will not make it harder for worst to win. Gypyx will still be able to show up and hammer HPE and win. So your win chance goes from 0 to 0 with a vote on worst (if worst is scum).
But under the scenario where worst is town, you starting a wagon on will lose the game -- HPE and Gypyx will hammer.

So because
1) you acknowledge that there is some chance of worst being town, and
2) you don't gain any win chance from voting worst if they and I are on a wagon together

then you should not vote worst if worst and I end up on a wagon against HPE.

But again, I won't vote HPE unless you assent to it. homie code or whatever.

[Psyche]

i think gypyx/drew is super unlikely at this point because of drew's decision to maintain a scumread on you worst. we would have potentially already limmed HPE and lost the game by now under gypyx/drew.

[Psyche]

i think gypyx/drew is super unlikely at this point because of drew's decision to maintain a scumread on you worst. we would have potentially already limmed HPE and lost the game by now under gypyx/drew.

unless drew is some sort of sadist

[Psyche]

ohh wait lemme think

[Psyche]

sry in a phone call but i want to check a thing first one moment

[Psyche]

ok, the flaw im noticing in my reasoning in 1054 is that at the time drew could have chosen to townread you (instead of maintaining his scumread), we were teed up to lim gypyx. And in fact, he might have looked suspicious if he didn't signpost a preference to lim gypyx supposing he did turn out to townread you.

So townreading you probably would have compelled him to back a gypyx lim. Does this push the needle for me though? I guess I already had reasons to reject a gypyx/drew team but it might move the needle for you.

[Psyche]

The point I'm trying to make though is that it's incorrect to infer that gypyx is scum based on drew's decision not to go along with townreading worst.

[Psyche]

Anyway! You still wanna put down that vote? I'm still down.

[Psyche]

ok. let's do it.

VOTE: HPE

[Psyche]

say drew if you're feeling impatient and also very friendly you can go ahead and hammer. or also if you're scum doing a great betrayal

[Psyche]

or we can wait, that's fine. i am definitely capable of thinking about other things while experiencing the passage of time. for sure. great time to just be subscribed to get email notifications when a post is made in this thread. i can just tune out and live the rest of my life until gmail pings me.

[Psyche]

gasp
ok well are any of you two scum?

[Psyche]

now worst im sure there's the thought in the back of your head that drew is bussing here but we really are just homies to the max. i think. peace out.

[Psyche]

gosh drew say something you were just here agh

[Psyche]

it couldnt be it couldn't be it couldn't be

[Psyche]

no, no emojis. words, please

[Psyche]

how the heck did you even get an emoji into this thread. who are you??

[Psyche]

did i lose? like in the worst possible way?

[Psyche]

tell me you are not scum. pls.

[Psyche]

i can accept if it's drew/gypx. i suppose.
i thought about going for a last second swap to gypyx to disconfirm that pairing

[Psyche]

gosh ausuka is so smooth

[Psyche]

honestly felt pretty alone past d1
but in the end i accepted the challenge and then failed

[Psyche]

Can't see a simple fix to my approach would have avoided this. Simple bias adjustments that would've prevented me from townlocking ausuka over deus/cakez would've also prevented me from scumreading her. I'd be in a sea of nulls. Feel like there were plenty of scum-pinging and town-pinging posts in every iso.

Otoh, one clearcut mistake was going forward with cakez after the claim, and in general not accepting that town can do motivated reasoning.
Not doing that might have saved room for another mistake — at minimum a broader poe pool

But how do I see the truth on D2?

snow arguably was unsortable due to activity but maybe a patience policy would allow room for better sorting. i gave up on this after seeing a prodge. i wonder where the limit to patience should be

I suppose one key mistake was not townreading some key posts by gypyx — particularly the snowcase.
I don't know if the snowcase was great but it was hard to see coming from scum.
That said, why is it reasonable to interpret gypyx's snowtown case as town, but not ausuka's decline to mislim deus?
What is the strategy that values the town signals in gypyx's iso but not the town signals in ausuka's?
bahh
i imagine that the best i could have done was stay neutral about both

hpe scumread felt forced by other solves — ausuka townread and gypyx/pc anti-relational read
the anti-relational read was right and maybe well-founded by its weighing of patterns from two slots instead of just one
without fixation on the first stance, i could maybe have townread hpe's entry based on tone, perception of effort to solve.
(but it was pretty absent afterwards, especially into D3. Do I not get suspicious of that? I guess not)

and if im null on ausuka d3, then drew loses the firewall that kept me from updating my take on him after various unbelievable posts

so maybe...
- avoid unforced errors to save room for mistakes later
- take time with inactives; don't interpret inactivity or effort
- fork-in-the-road counterfactual reasoning seems nice but doesn't work (why didn't drew just soft-TR worst and group on gypyx earlier?)
- omg there's nothing left

[Psyche]

you gave no sign that you were even going to use that time to think

[Psyche]

ughhh actually the reason i didnt wait for hpe was because i was so sure of my ausuka read and my rejection of a gypyx/pc pair

[Psyche]

i never forgot the townread. but i revisited it after practically every third post you put out.

[Psyche]

I had an approach to mafia ive been testing these last several games that has before now been reasonably successful. It focused on looking for decisions to do the pro-town thing under conditions where doing the scummy thing was strongly incentivized — both in terms of concrete wincon advancement, and also in terms of reputational advancement.

By the logic of this strategy, declining to support — and instead opposing — a mislim in a situation when no one in the town would have faulted you for backing the mislim is substantially town-telling.

but i guess i forgot how easy it is as scum to look at an easy winning decision in the eye and then to not do that — just in case. i certainly do that all the time as scum. maybe there's something to the approach, but not followed as rigidly as i did.

and besides, i think the mindset tends to give me more townreads than i can handle. apparent unforced anti-scum behavior has seemed relatively common in my games where i've been searching for them. it's created scenarios where i'm trying to figure out which in a pool of townreads is wrong.

best explanation is probably that scum besides ausuka very readily add noise to their play even when they can get away with not doing so, and i only feel good about my strategy because it searches for town, who are—statistically speaking—always readily found. In theory I should be able to more consistently test my approach by tracking how often the people at the bottom of my reads lists turn out to be scum, though...

There needs to be more to the process beyond simply downweighting how much I tr certain kinds of plays.
A feasible alternative is to build a better insight into what makes a behavior convincing or not — a sense of whether an action was disingenuous or particularly sincere-seeming, independently of the action's connection hypothetical win cons.
I have had success lately with this too, but not in this game. Drew was detected as scum D1 in one of those more successful games. I found NAS-scum D1 in another.

It seems possible to do this in a way that doesn't just come down to gut, and it would have detected drew this game too, as well as potentially upweighted how much I valued some discrepancies I found in ausuka's D2 play. But it seems easy to get hung up on certain town this way too — like cakez's case on deus that in retrospect was probably so flawed bc of motivated reasoning / animus against deus as a player. Maybe just keeping awareness of these other potential motives for disingenuous behavior can pump up success rates along this path too.

But whatever, am tired of ruminating now.

[Psyche]

yeah your explanation is intuitive. i misguessed the likelihood that you’d think to do that! something my more data-driven research has found is that scum are kind of cautious around joining landing on mislim wagons, to the extent that it even helps distinguish their voting patterns from town. i should have weighed scum’s tendency to play conservatively more strongly. but i’ll need to check first to see if it’s really a consistent bias across contexts/players, or just a possibility to hedge bets over.