Mini Normal 2333 | woah that's a lot of 3's | It's Gypover !

[Dannflor]

ayyyyy

[Dannflor]

Brian Skies I’d very much appreciate a quick little unvote if you’re town

[Dannflor]

as an unbiased spectator I thought blackstar was objectively very scummy and hu tao was objectively very towny

i basically think the way blackstar has conducted himself this whole phase screams scum and his posting is loaded with classic scum tells

As a biased player, i also get the added benefit of knowing Blackstar is scum, so there’s that

anyway it’s 4 am ill explain everything tomorrow and solve the game blah blah

[Dannflor]

Good luck figuring that out tomorrow between Brian and Kay. They both just fence sit.

Seeing caught scum flail like this is kind of sad. Now everyone is scum because they aren’t rushing to agree with you?

For the record, this is not the type of post town makes when they are being counter claimed and on the verge of possibly winning or losing the game.

This is a scummie’s idea of what a townie would sound like in this position, not what a toqnie would actually do/say

The confidence of Hu Tao being “caught scum” is overstated, because like for that to be true most other players would have to be leaning in Black Star’s direction

In general there’s a whole lot of bluster and over confidence in Black Star’s posts, including the most recent post about me

Town isn’t actually curious about how “caught scum” is going to “spin this”

[Dannflor]

I think the best way to put it is to try to imagine what type of emotion or mental state town!Black Star would be likely to have in this position

Does the blustery and confident “Haha you’re caught and obvious scum how quaint haha” tone fit with that?

[Dannflor]

I’m not the final authority

I have, however, played a shit ton of games and have a pretty good idea of how scum acts in this situation versus how town acts

[Dannflor]

Black Star what is your rationale for why Hu Tao counter claimed you again

[Dannflor]

I think the best way to put it is to try to imagine what type of emotion or mental state town!Black Star would be likely to have in this position

Does the blustery and confident “Haha you’re caught and obvious scum how quaint haha” tone fit with that?

What is the proper way to respond to someone who’ve blocked from carrying out a night kill? And why do you believe that you’re the final authority on how every town player acts?

also I don’t know why you are asking me sorting-esque questions if you have me as caught scum

Like obviously if that’s true I am just lying

[Dannflor]

BlackStar teammate?

oh it's probably you

[Dannflor]

random nurse is pretty easy to find as town and this doesn't look like a town ISO from him

you're doing this weird hedgey shadey thing of hu tao while not really committing to either side

brian skies is voting wrong but I don't really think there's a universe where he does the wall posts on leaning Hu Tao and Titus town and then votes Titus, that's just extremely unintuitive positioning for a brian/blackstar team here

KJQ I don't have like a super solid reason to be town beyond vibes

[Dannflor]

that was @Enchant

[Dannflor]

KJQ I don't have like a super solid reason to be town beyond vibes

I dunno, I think if you looked hard enough you could find some reasons lol

I mean hopefully I haven't read extensively beyond this day yet

[Dannflor]

BlackStar teammate?

oh it's probably you

He's probably clear btw. Enchant has a vanilla result on him. We have 4 pr. I don't think there is 2 goons

oh

[Dannflor]

why can't there be 2 goons + roleblocker

[Dannflor]

reporter - learns if a player has acted or not
town vanilla cop
town universal backup night 1 friendly neighbor
rolestopper

the most powerful role here is the rolestopper and it has the potential for negative utility

i don't really see why there couldn't be 2 goons balance wise

[Dannflor]

Unless you can think of an ultra strong PR. And even in that case Scum can't multitask. And because of this, Blackstar had to be the one to do the kill because of the claim. So if there was a scum goon it was likely BlackStar not Enchant. I just think mechanically he's town.

why did blackstar have to be the one to do the kill

im sorry if im being dumb but im not following

[Dannflor]

reporter is a seems like an extremely weak role

i'm not following why that means multiple mafia prs either

[Dannflor]

okay

[Dannflor]

where does mod confirm whether scum is multitasking or not

[Dannflor]

oh

ctrl + fing multitasking failed me

[Dannflor]

okay I'd like more time to read and think about the setup implications before ending the day

I'm busy at work right now but will put more time into this later this afternoon

[Dannflor]

I don't know how much help it is for me to town case Hu Tao given I'm probably scum in any world Hu Tao is scum

but I genuinely believe all the inconsistencies and things BlackStar is painting as lies and Hu Tao being unable to keep her story is straight is just normal towny messiness

when scum fake claim they are generally much more likely to have everything planned out and make sure to fact check themselves

like Hu Tao forgetting who she cleared is emblematic of telling the truth, not someone who came into the day with a preconceived plan

and on the flip side, mafia overwhelmingly leap onto things like inconsistencies from townies as evidence of them being scum

[Dannflor]

I also don't really know who I think it is between KJQ and Brian

or if I believe Enchant is cleared yet

I guess I still think Brian's trajectory today is really weird from scum but it's not out of the question

[Dannflor]

I mean with no-kill scum knew they'd likely be getting into a 1v1 with the claim anyway

I don't see why they wouldn't just claim their actions truthfully (I'm kinda assuming Black Star is actually a roleblocker or similar scum PR here) in case someone could catch them in a lie

[Dannflor]

also @Hu Tao you should claim who you are going to role stop before the day ends

it forces scum to either no-kill or clear someone

[Dannflor]

is ydrasse in this game

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oh i was thinking jailkeeper im sorry im stupid

[Dannflor]

I wasn't literally thinking jail keeper but I was thinking the same abilities

I just kinda imagined what rolestop sounded like it did

[Dannflor]

kind of want to actually read the full game

[Dannflor]

jailkeeper also roleblocks, no?

[Dannflor]

you said that

I'm so sorry

I am lacking reading comprehension

[Dannflor]

eh reading the early game I think BlackStar's push onto Random Nurse on page 4 is likely to be scum finding a push onto a townie

[Dannflor]

and then 107 and 108 in succession would be pretty strong theatre early on in the game

[Dannflor]

reading random nurse's iso in context feels a lot more town

OKAY FINE enchant can be town

[Dannflor]

did jackson town read you

[Dannflor]

KJQ would have to be hard bussing yessiree D2

not out of the question but it's not really necessary and it's not like KJQ tries to scum case yessiree or anything for cred

[Dannflor]

enchant getting angey at KJQ seems towny

[Dannflor]

I thought this was a slamdunk elimination, but the Blackstar-Penguin discrepancy makes me think otherwise.

I'll think on it later. :3

hm,

[Dannflor]

im conflicted

[Dannflor]

ultimately my stumbling point with Brian is that I have a really hard time imagining scum!Brian making these wall posts in 1286 and 1292, each concluding with "leaning hu tao town" and "I can see Titus as town" and then randomly back tracking in 1298 and voting Titus

it's just a really weird trajectory for scum to take in this position

[Dannflor]

I mean we could try to figure this out while we have 3 semi-confirmed townies alive

[Dannflor]

it would help me at least if you talked through more what you're thinking right now / where you're leaning

[Dannflor]

Setup

Town Lazy Jailkeeper
Town JoaT (One-Shot Doctor, One-Shot Tracker, One-Shot Vigilante)
Town Bodyguard
Town Macho 2-Shot Watcher

Vanilla Townie x6

Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon
Mafia Roleblocker

I mean this is literally a setup I ran earlier this year and I think it had stronger PRs than shown here

[Dannflor]

it would help me at least if you talked through more what you're thinking right now / where you're leaning

Well my biggest worry is that if Hu Tao is lying, we just lose here. And it’s still possible that she’s lying. I didn’t think she was scum originally but I don’t know. I’m second guessing myself. Jackson did say she was trying to pocket me early, maybe he was right.

well what do you think is most likely right now? how are you reading people?

[Dannflor]

I think I'm town reading Enchant

I don't fully agree Enchant is on the level of cop cleared but I'm not really considering him anymore

[Dannflor]

why don't you see Hu Tao as partnered with Brian

[Dannflor]

Well I don’t think you’re very likely to want to help me when you’re currently in both of my solves lol

I mean I am town so if you are town I need to get you to see me as such

so your worry is that scum intentionally no-killed to try to get one of black star or my slot to coast through end game?

[Dannflor]

VOTE: blackstar

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i changed my mind about wanting more time blackstar's posts are annoying me

hu tao if you have any last words now's the time

[Dannflor]

I guess specifically words you have on KJQ vs. Brian because I'm leaning scum!KJQ at the moment

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I am town

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hu tao are you scum or are you trolling

[Dannflor]

idk

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you can drop it blackstar

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ok

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thanks

[Dannflor]

enchant + me + KJQ + hu tao

ya dead

[Dannflor]

he unvoted after you got hammered

[Dannflor]

oh my god this is insufferable

[Dannflor]

I do think I'm inclined to town read KJQ's reactions post hammer

[Dannflor]

well I can assure you I am town

[Dannflor]

well I can assure you I am town

I think day 1 Brian wagon and Brian's lack of emotions today point to him being scum.

taking it into consideration

[Dannflor]

well one way or another you’re going to have to make a decision about who you think is most likely to be scum

[Dannflor]

A. Enchant being a goon would mean that the mafia team is composed of 3 goons, from a balance perspective I find this a little iffy (I can't be scum with Enchant so you can at least trust I'm giving my truthful opinion on that)

B. the chances that mafia no-killed are also pretty slim imo. it would mean scum got incredibly lucky that Hu Tao got a false positive and somehow predicted that no-killing would be a sounder way to get to end game than just playing the game normally and killing the towniest slots. I don't really see a case for why this is likely and combined with hu tao's action on my slot I think it's hugely more likely that I'd just be town here objectively

[Dannflor]

gg wp

thanks for modding gypyx

sorry for leading you astray KJQ

[Dannflor]

i don't really think there was anything wrong with the setup

[Dannflor]

I don't really think the vote history being in VCs matters too much

skilled town players will already be considering such things and skilled scum players will already be trying to manipulate such things

i guess it raises the skill floor a bit for both alignments?

[Dannflor]

the setup was fine, maybe scum is a tiny bit weak but still well within the realm of passing balance

it was a town misplay (including mine) to clear enchant off mechanical reasons

that being said, enchant had a good shot at winning elo without that

[Dannflor]

personally i think it's Good Actually if setups fuck with assumptions like that

mechanical assumptions like that are townplay crutches and towns should be punished for overly relying on them over dayplay

[Dannflor]

i don't think "making an overly townsided setup to teach people to not make mechnical assumptions" was one of my goals there but like, thanks

well, with the benefit of hindsight i think 3 goons is probably still well within the normal realm of balance

it's town sided but not so much that I don't understand why it passed review

i think a range of like 45-60% winrate is all fine and this might be closer to the high end but, like, that's fine

[Dannflor]

tbf i was also running into the issue of not really believing it could be either brian or kjq based on play

sorry about the incorrect mechanical advice kjq

[Dannflor]

I think I was blinded/frustrated a bit knowing that I was town and feeling like you were going to vote me in elo

[Dannflor]

did jackson town read you

Why even ask this btw?

I was guessing you are decent at finding her as town

[Dannflor]

it’s more of a RIP me, I told you to rely on that!