Open 913 - This Game Started as an April Fools' Joke - Postgame

[Elements]

Can I suggest we forget/ignore the cop result for the time being (as much as possible)
There were two kills last night so it's possible there will be two again tonight which could result in one of them dead, solving the other.
In the meantime we can discuss who to vote (neither of the two) with them both in the mix to maximise spew
Then if csf is shot we have someone to vote, and if not we can just vote her

[Elements]

Can't believe we missed the bloop

[imaginality]

It seems way too early for this to be a worthwhile scum gambit from light_ganski as it'll inevitably be a 1 for 1 if CSF flips town, and way too convenient for CSF to be claiming Doctor. I believe the guilty on CSF.

Given CSF could die tonight by SK/vig we probably want to have a consensus on who we want to vote in a 'CSF flips scum tonight' scenario.

I'm gonna go reread CSF's posts; Daisy's take on the quoted post in 564 above seems plausible though.

[Elements]

It seems way too early for this to be a worthwhile scum gambit from light_ganski as it'll inevitably be a 1 for 1 if CSF flips town, and way too convenient for CSF to be claiming Doctor. I believe the guilty on CSF.

Given CSF could die tonight by SK/vig we probably want to have a consensus on who we want to vote in a 'CSF flips scum tonight' scenario.

Mindmeld

[imaginality]

Lol I was about to post "mindmeld" too

[Thomith]

Can I suggest we forget/ignore the cop result for the time being (as much as possible)
There were two kills last night so it's possible there will be two again tonight which could result in one of them dead, solving the other.
In the meantime we can discuss who to vote (neither of the two) with them both in the mix to maximise spew
Then if csf is shot we have someone to vote, and if not we can just vote her

It seems way too early for this to be a worthwhile scum gambit from light_ganski as it'll inevitably be a 1 for 1 if CSF flips town, and way too convenient for CSF to be claiming Doctor. I believe the guilty on CSF.

Given CSF could die tonight by SK/vig we probably want to have a consensus on who we want to vote in a 'CSF flips scum tonight' scenario.

I'm gonna go reread CSF's posts; Daisy's take on the quoted post in 564 above seems plausible though.

Oh so if CSF survives the Night, we vote her, but if she doesn't we vote someone else?

[Elements]

Lol I was about to post "mindmeld" too

The double!

[Elements]

Oh so if CSF survives the Night, we vote her, but if she doesn't we vote someone else?

Ye, basically

[Thomith]

I'm just gunna run through numbers to see if there may have been any reason for a fake Cop guilty don't mind me.

I doubt it, just wanna see.

[Elements]

I'm just gunna run through numbers to see if there may have been any reason for a fake Cop guilty don't mind me.

I doubt it, just wanna see.

Is a red rolecop possible?

[Thomith]

Night 1 -IF WE ARE IN AN SK WORLD
11 Alive
7 Town
1 SK
3 Scum

2 Die tonight - maybe both town if we have a SK?

Day 2
9 Alive
5 Town
1 SK
3 Scum

Night 2 (If Cop Guilty Faked)
8 Alive
4 Town
1 SK
3 Scum

SK has to kill scum N2 in this hypothetical

Day 3
6 Alive
3 Town
1 SK
2 Scum

If my math isn't wrong we probably need to eliminate correctly today to avoid a worst case scenario of becoming at "ELo" during Night 2? Would still feel like a crazy gambit for a fake guilty so I'm not too sure if this worst case scenario world is right - I feel like it assumes too much.

[Thomith]

I'm just gunna run through numbers to see if there may have been any reason for a fake Cop guilty don't mind me.

I doubt it, just wanna see.

Is a red rolecop possible?

No rolecops in this setup.

[Elements]

I'm just gunna run through numbers to see if there may have been any reason for a fake Cop guilty don't mind me.

I doubt it, just wanna see.

Is a red rolecop possible?

No rolecops in this setup.

Was thinking it might make the gambit more favorable if a red rolecop saw a doc to take out with it, but that's null and void

[Thomith]

No SK Scenario
Night 1
11 Alive
8 Town
3 Scum

Day 2 - Assuming a potential vig 1) is not One-Shot and 2) shoots the guilty and its fake
9 Alive
6 Town
3 Scum

Night 2 - if CSF isn't scum then obviously we would get light-ganski
6 Town
2 Scum

Yeah this probably is only endgame if there is an SK world over a Vig world, so it would be a huge gamble for scum to assume it's an SK (only a 50% shot from memory). Cop is probably real imo.

[light_ganski]

569 feels a bit like light setting up to say this was all just a reaction test later. Whatever she says, don’t let light back out of her cop claim later

I'm just gonna make this absolutely clear

This is not a reaction test

[Thomith]

569 feels a bit like light setting up to say this was all just a reaction test later. Whatever she says, don’t let light back out of her cop claim later

I'm just gonna make this absolutely clear

This is not a reaction test

Any crumbs per chance?

[halfasleep]

(i voted awesomeming if we're claiming votes)

[Thomith]

Think it's obvious but I voted Black Ranger

[light_ganski]

I didn't trust myself enough to crumb without just outing myself

[Thomith]

I didn't trust myself enough to crumb without just outing myself

Fair enough.

[light_ganski]

Incidentally yes we need to decide on at least a second lim for if CSF gets vigged tonight

[halfasleep]

i don't see any reason to disbelieve light's claim here. i'm currently likely to vote for ming again if csf is nightkilled barring anything major changing my mind tonight.

[Thomith]

i don't see any reason to disbelieve light's claim here. i'm currently likely to vote for ming again if csf is nightkilled barring anything major changing my mind tonight.

because of the way the phases work differently here, and us being in ELo or MeLo potentially not being immediately obvious because of that, I just wanted to run the numbers to check there wasn't a scenario where a scum fakeclaim couldn't just cause a win, but yeah, there's one exact scenario where that would screw us, but it would require scum to take a huge gamble that I doubt we are ever in that world.

light_ganski's posting today regarding the guilty seems genuine too.

[OopsieDaisy]

Oh yea I forgot a kill could solve it for us lmao.

Yea we do need another vote then.

[Black]

So we vote CSF and we have a backup vote planned just in case

I'll try to do proper analysis when I'm not busy