Shell Game (Day 8)

[Shello and Goodbye]

*lack of strong scumreads that you feel confident pushing

Is probably a better way to put that thought

~ skitter

Pedit can cop shots be used tonight?

[morph the cat]

Also literally no one other than Sunflower themselves addressed my point about them crumbing the cop-inventor being scum indicative

I was reading through that part of the thread again, and thought of you!

[Spiffeh]

FYI Jingle/Bingle you are alt-slipping.

[Spiffeh]

Also literally no one other than Sunflower themselves addressed my point about them crumbing the cop-inventor being scum indicative

I was reading through that part of the thread again, and thought of you!

Thoughts?

[Save The Dragons]

Why do I always scumread cakez

Can you devote some words to this?

I feel like I always scumread cakez in every game I play with him. It doesn't bother me that much because sometimes he's actually scum.

It's been a couple months since I played mafia so I'm trying to ignore any meta reads but I guess I also am not seeing something I expected town!cakez to do by now.

So I guess it was fleeting moment of doubt.

[morph the cat]

*lack of strong scumreads that you feel confident pushing

Is probably a better way to put that thought

~ skitter

Pedit can cop shots be used tonight?

We pushed the hell out of sunflower and got nowhere for our efforts. Even people who aren't townreading fireisred didn't have much appetite for elimming there. I think that's because the hood doesn't seem to want to elim inside their hood on night 1. And that's persuasive to me, as well.

We pushed cakez pre-catchup and got stick for that.

And we're pushing Brian.

-------------------

On a completely different topic, my AD read has deteriorated hugely due to experience's lack of doing anything so far. It's become worrisome.

Re your p-edit someone in that hood said they can't be used until day 3.

[Bingle]

Firebringer's early posts didn't ping me as much upon reread, and I was fine with his reaction to his wagon.

I also really like these posts:

I think that's a poor basis for a Fire read, and those posts are very NAI.

I think the concise version of my fire read is too towny to be townbringer.

Also literally no one other than Sunflower themselves addressed my point about them crumbing the cop-inventor being scum indicative

Can you point your favorite hermit crab at it

Also, please humor me while I discuss mechanics I know nothing about and let me know if you think I'm off base/conf-biasing: Sunflower crumbing their role is scummy. It took like 20 pages of the main thread for the participants of the neighborhood to realize it was a dethy, which leads me to believe that it wasn't made explicitly clear in their role PMs. However, I suspect Ceph would have clued in the assumed lone scum in the hood about it to some degree so they are not caught immediately in the event the hood mass claims. My question is, why does Town crumb that role at all? As scum with knowledge of the dethy, crumbing would be advantageous because it could be something to point to later to say "look I really do have that role I crumbed it right here!" But I don't think Town gains anything by crumbing their role as cop inventor, even with the implication of potentially not being sane.

I don't think either of these really interacts with the crumb train of thought, tbh. If scum is told the whole hood is copventors then they don't really need to crumb copventor for believability. I think it boils down to some people crumb and some people don't crumb and mostly they don't make that decision based on whether crumbing is actually smart.

I don't think we should make a plan for the cop shots and the dethy hood should distribute them as they fit.

Not quite.

We should attempt to prevent the cop shots from doubling up on a player, which means we should have the copventors each claim a pool of players they might copventor into that don't overlap, including the other copventors. With 4.3 targets apiece, scum probably won't shoot for to disrupt the copventoring and we won't get HC getting 5 copventor shots that all then are completely unparseable for point of origin.

FYI Jingle/Bingle you are alt-slipping.

Sorry. Was working on something for Jingle and didn't realize I didn't swap back over.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Next Tier Townleans[Accuracy Not Guranteed]

Spoiler: CSF

I’m not gonna lie I don’t remember a single thing she posted except she said she was a miller at some point. I do know she has rep as a super polarized player and some people have said she’s town that I am not going to bother to read her. Yea I’m kind of lazy sorry.

Spoiler: STD

I feel like STD doesn’t care how he’s read and just floating out on an island somewhere puffing a pipe and shooting flames at the sky. It’s a very chill vibe that I think makes sense if he’s town and he could care less what’s going on

Spoiler: Marci

I think she’s town because she’s comfortable being a bad bitch

Spoiler: Experience

I believed what actionDan said about believing CSF couldn’t be a miller because of his role; experience hasn’t really posted from what I remember

Spoiler: Dunnstral

Feel like all of his contributions are p townie – haven’t really thought that hard about this read because I am very bad at reading Dunnstral, he doesn’t have many deviations between his scum/town game. Gth I’d say town

Spoiler: Firebringer

he’s not as townie as I remember him being, I don’t think he’s posted a hero solve yet, I have him on the town side of the ledger anyway because I’m biased and he hasn’t done anything that’s too scummy yet ig

Spoiler: Dannflor

I’ve been back and forth on this read a lot and ultimately I’m gonna put him on the town side of the ledger because I think if cakes/bsky are both scum then dann is probly town because dann!scum is more thread dominant when his team is not doing good and does a decent job of coaching his team into a better spot – throw this read out the window if cakes/bsky are like town lol

[Bingle]

First off I’m going to start with the leading wagons of the day; Cakes/Brianskies and why I think they can both be mafia.

My homie Cakeboi;

Things I didn’t like: Cakes “disappearing” after I asked him how he knew the hermit hydra was a cabal member. The issue I had wasn’t so much that he took X minutes to reply etc which is always understandable – it’s that after he replied to it he kind of tried to just vibe with the thread for a bit without really trying to solve anything and then just dipped to “read” which feels like he was more interested in getting out of dodge than like actually getting reads.

His readslist feels questionable to me, I don’t really understand how he got to a townread on Penguin and I certainly don’t understand how he has me at top townread status when like he just told me last game we played together that he feels like he can never trust me-> link here: viewtopic.php?p=14028065#p14028065
And when he’s asked about it he doesn’t really give a good reason for townreading me. I feel like it doesn’t make sense for him to trust me this much if he’s uninformed of my alignment.

The last thing I didn’t like about Cakez and what led me to the teamread of Cakes/Brian is how Cakes responded to doubts about why he voted for Brian Skies – he essentially didn’t give any good reasons on why he wants Brian dead and that feels like how Cakes plays when he busses a teammate – he thinks its self-evident why said teammate is scummy and he doesn’t find a reason to justify the vote – whereas if cakes is scum and voting a townie he would come up with a reason so he doesn’t look as bad after the misflip.
Two other things I want to mention that I noticed in Cakes iso;

Now
VOTE: BRIAN SKIES

All of his posts sound like wet toilet paper being thrown at a wall. He's probably sad his teammates already decided to bus him.

^ this is Cakes vote on Brian

And this is the VC/Cakes Readlist at the time;

ACTUALLY TOWN READS - Lukewarm, Pooky, Dunnstral, Pengy
TOWN ISH...FOR NOW - Shello and Goodbye, Dannflor, Spiffeh, marcistar, Oblivion, Bingle
idk yet - StD, experience, Gypyx
A LITTLE SCUMMISH - Firebringer, CSF, Klick
SCUMMY BUT IM ALSO TILTED - Hermit Crab
SCUMMY AF - Morph the Cat, Firebagel, Sunflower, Brian Skies

pls keep in mind these are rough draft immediate fire thought reads based individually
ex; morph and sunflower are probably not scum together but I got scum vibes from them individually
I'm also ignoring the hoods for now

I find the whole "slip" argument against me to be incredibly dumb but I don't think there's anything even to argue there so I'm just gonna ignore it. I don't really think it's AI.

VC 1.11

Brian 7 (Spiffeh, morph, marci, Lukewarm, Dunnstral, Sunflower, Pooky)
SirCakez 6 (CSF, Firebagel, STD, Brian, Shello, Dannflor)
Gypyx 3 (Penguin, Hermit, Bingle)
Sunflower 1 (Klick)
Pooky 1 (SirCakez)
Spiffeh 1 (Gypyx)
Bingle 1 (Firebringer)

Not voting (Oblivion, experience)

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to combust.

Deadline: (expired on 2024-05-09 04:07:00)

Of the 7 players voting Bsky he has Pooky/Dunn/Luke as his top tier townreads, Morph/Sunflower as scumreads and spiff/marci as 2nd tier townreads.

So what he is saying about “all the scum team bussing bsky so he’s sad” is incongruent with his stated reads – it’s the kind of hyperbole you use when you bus a partner without really thinking it through whether this actually makes sense with what your reads actually are.

Lastly another thing I’ve noticed is;

Sigh

Crabz, do y'all have thoughts on this?

Same question to you, Luke.

other's thoughts also welcome.

I am of two minds when I look at his top 4 scum reads.

In my left brain, I don't think that scum-Cakez would feel super confident in dropping you guys in the bottom tier.

In my right brain, I think that landing on Brian being his strongest scum read is exactly who scum-Cakez needs to have as his strongest scum read.

Why are you looking at everything from the angle of would scum!Cakez do this? What about would town!Cakez do this? I feel like everyone in this game is good enough to see how scummy Brian's recent posting has been,

I almost feel like it would be egregious to not vote him given the wagon existing too.

i kinda feel like if you're scum you have to vote him now, no?

~ skitter

People keep saying this but why would I not vote him as town here either? He's one of my top scum reads and has the biggest wagon. I feel like it would be really dumb to try to start some other vanity wagon when people don't even generally listen to me in the first place, let alone when I'm the main CW.

^ this gives off huge caught for the wrong reasons vibes. It feels like he’s saying to skitter I would do this if I were town TOO!!! ~ as in he thinks this is how he plays if he’s town so its unfair for her to treat him this way etc.

Lastly I feel like his conversations with morph feel like he’s trying to placate them/get them off his back which doesn’t make sense if he’s scumreading them.

As for why I think Brian is also mafia it really comes down to three points;

(1) Disengagement with the game – Spiffeh’s 2838 lays out a very good case for why this is scum!brian – I haven’t played a lot of games with Brian but from what I remember of him in Tenet he was very engaged with the game. I think it makes sense for him to be disengaged if he’s resigned to being elimmed and the only viable other elimination[cakez] is a partner.
(2) I kind of refuse to believe town!brian can see cakes being so scummy[see my points against cakes above] and being opportunistic in pushing him with no real good reasoning and he doesn’t fight back against it and just rolls over? Like I kind of think town brian has no problem rising up and kicking Cakes butt back to the stone age.
(3) The way cakez treats Brian feels like he’s telling us this is going to be a scumflip [yes I know preflips are bad and its dumb to build one scumcase off another when you don’t have any flips but this is just how I play so deal with it]


So that's p much why I am fine with flipping either Cakes or Brian atp.

Gonna write up the rest of my readlist on everyone else now.

I'll accept this. I'm okay with both now.

[morph the cat]

Also literally no one other than Sunflower themselves addressed my point about them crumbing the cop-inventor being scum indicative

I was reading through that part of the thread again, and thought of you!

Thoughts?

My thoughts are that the traitor in my dethy hood in the smokefilled game crumbed being part of the dethy (and signaled "I'm your traitor" to the scum team) in their first post. There was some talk about the player being too inexperienced to play well as a dethy traitor. I'm not sure how accurate that assessment was, since the account was an alt of a banned player.

An early heads up to their team if they are the scum in that hood makes pretty good sense to me.

[marcistar]

*lack of strong scumreads that you feel confident pushing

Is probably a better way to put that thought

~ skitter

Pedit can cop shots be used tonight?

I didnt ask, but i think next n8ght they can be used.

I think morph is getting 3 cuz i said if we want mechanics we need to wait until 2 shots can go off so we can get accurate info. But then said it isnt realistic.

[Shello and Goodbye]

VOTE: cakez

~ skitter

[morph the cat]

I think morph is getting 3 cuz i said if we want mechanics we need to wait until 2 shots can go off so we can get accurate info. But then said it isnt realistic.

This sounds like a bad idea to me. I've never seen an invention-receiver able to use more than one invention in a night phase.

At least check with ceph on that.

[morph the cat]

unless you're talking about us being the sanity check target, not a target to receive inventions. Using us as a sanity check is a good choice, probably.

[Bingle]

I think morph is getting 3 cuz i said if we want mechanics we need to wait until 2 shots can go off so we can get accurate info. But then said it isnt realistic.

WRT dethy hood:

Claim the N1 invent and result on the first available day. Claim the N2 invent and result on the second available day. Claim the N3 invent and result on the third available day -> first time when usage of that information should be powerful. As such, dethy hood probably goes untested for a few days and we should focus on solving outside it for now.

I have a pet theory that it's 2 in our hood 2 in no hood 1 in dethy scum wise, but that theory is ungrounded and thus not worth acting on. It does mean that I'm not really interested in delineating between in our hood or not in our hood for limming, because legitimately 0-4 is the reasonable numbers I could see being scum in our hood and that's like... completely useless. I'll probably want to reevaluate that post massclaim. I feel better about a cakez lim post pooky case. Massclaim probably on D3 when scum have committed to killing in the dethy hood or not.

[Shello and Goodbye]

I'll accept this. I'm okay with both now.

i'm kinda surprised that you do, especially with cakez

~ skitter

[marcistar]

im bored of the game thread as of late, esp of brian

Why am I the subject of your ire?

What do you want to do today wrt your hood?

cuz i looked at your posts and yawned

in regards to my hood, i dont really care. prefer for it to get solved but im not confident enough to make the call myself. more just "voice my opinion and dont shove it down throats"
i think in regards to letting it sit for a day for ~mechanical reasons~ (which i saw some people, i can specifically remember dragons but im sure others have said) would it not make sense to let it sit for a few more after that?
1 night to give
another night to give and get a result
and another night to get a result to confirm upon what we learnt previously
does that not make the most mechanical sense if we want to go down that route?
but i dont think its realistic to let a 1/5 shot slip through our fingers for that long.

my personal reads on my hoodmates have not changed much.
sunflower - klick - dragons - actiondan slot
granted the hood has been dead ever since the "hi" fest this morning, save for jupiter head complaining about # of pages and then not following up in hood after that. (i think i prob responded after they dipped tho)

[Bingle]

unless you're talking about us being the sanity check target, not a target to receive inventions. Using us as a sanity check is a good choice, probably.

Sanity check target makes less sense mechanically in a large because we can genuinely flip more players. Copventions should be more aimed at getting reevaluated with like 10 flips on the table where it's not that ambiguous who is giving what kind of result.

[Bingle]

sunflower

HC
klick
std
pp

klick

morph
experience
dann
dunn
luke

dragons

FB
pooky
me
shello

actiondan experience

marci
oblivion
spiff
gypyx

marci

sunflower
cakez
bagel
csf

Invent target pools. I think I got everyone and didn't double up.

[marcistar]

unless you're talking about us being the sanity check target, not a target to receive inventions. Using us as a sanity check is a good choice, probably.

Sanity check target makes less sense mechanically in a large because we can genuinely flip more players. Copventions should be more aimed at getting reevaluated with like 10 flips on the table where it's not that ambiguous who is giving what kind of result.

Arent we basically reducing our worth to 0 if we invest people who we think will die eventually?

[marcistar]

I personally dont like ur list cuz i d9nt overly tr anyone u put under my pool but ill follow it if everyone else agrees

[Bingle]

This sounds like a bad idea to me.

More to the point, if you get three cop shots and use them, how the fuck do you track the result back to "cop shot that came from marci" vs "cop shot that came from experience.

[morph the cat]

unless you're talking about us being the sanity check target, not a target to receive inventions. Using us as a sanity check is a good choice, probably.

Sanity check target makes less sense mechanically in a large because we can genuinely flip more players. Copventions should be more aimed at getting reevaluated with like 10 flips on the table where it's not that ambiguous who is giving what kind of result.

In the 19p 4nxiety dethy game, IIRC the dethy targeted different players. Between being shot at and one of the town in the dethy getting modkilled for quoting a pm from the mod, that dethy wasn't solved before they all died.

In the 17p Fakegod dethy game, we targeted each other on night 1 (we were a confirmed masonry to each other because we flipped the traitor on day 1), and I think the dethy was solved on Night 3. I died N2 (insane cop as it happened). The sane cop lasted to elo because lol pooky.

22 is larger, but is it ~that~ larger? I dunno.

I'll bow to your mechanical expertise, though.

[Save The Dragons]

Marci I'll switch with you if you want

[Cat Scratch Fever]

How did you come up with that list, bingle?