open 914: the coalition (this is completed)

[implosion]

There's like, some posts that ping me but I don't feel confident actually saying that I find them meaningfully scum indicative. 725 is maybe slightly performative. The way that they talk about their read on me in response to May talking about her read on me feels vaguely off-ish. I think i'm just having a moment of i don't know how to play this game and i'll get over it eventually

[Black]

Ok

I like live posting and I find it useful sometimes. Sorting outside of the coalition may not be a rip priority but it is something I want to do, and doing so won't really impact my higher priorities

[Black]

That was to the duck

[Black]

I think the duck is probably town which means I have relatively decent townreads on half of the non-coalition

[Black]

Slight town pings from Aventurine on the last page too fwiw

[Black]

The more I read the more I think it's just May/Implosion

[Moros]

why do you think implosion would be happy to put may in the coalition if they are the team?

[Black]

why do you think implosion would be happy to put may in the coalition if they are the team?

Looking over the progression, it doesn't seem like implosion ever pushes for May to be in it. He expresses doubt about her in 404 and then is real hedgy about the read in 405. He first shows interest in putting her in shortly after in 477. He never actually heals May though, and just kinda goes along with other people around him putting her in their coalitions. Eventually he agrees with the coalition that has her in it but I think if he were to argue too hard about her being in then it would have probably looked weird? I don't think it's optimal for both scum to be in but I don't think implosion going along with the general rising support of her suggests they are unpartnered

[Black]

implosion may have not predicted that so many people would put May in their coalitions when he wrote 477. When he first said he would be fine with her in, the only other person with May in their coalition was May

[Black]

I do think if I were scum in this setup then I would probably want to keep my partner out without making them look too bad, but doing the opposite also opens the door to wifom. And if one of them dies then the other can easily start pushing people off wagon because scum are probably expected to split themselves here

[Moros]

i think that's fair reasoning

[Black]

I'm curious how previous iterations have played out in regards to the split but I'm too lazy to check rn

[Moros]

i am finding it hard to trust any of the reads i had before this

[Aventurine]

Aventurine's Moros vote makes perfect sense idc about what alignment it is rn

Why do you say this?

It's just a vanilla mafia game with public info know about groups of players' alignments. Voting in a group of players which is guaranteed to have scum is smart. Moros is a wagon which means voting there is a positive thing. Being caught up is nice but it's not necessary to place a vote.

Also much lower urgency around sorting u in this stage of the day. That's less salient though I just don't think you voting before catching up is either confusing or useful to talk about.

I like this post.

[Black]

That makes sense

[Black]

Aventurine do you have any thoughts about my implosion/May theory?

[the worst]

I have thoughts!!!

[implosion]

I also have thoughts and I'm going to say them.

I actually honestly think that it's not a bad theory based on what you see, and it just happens to be wrong in this game. I will point you to this game which is highly relevant meta; it's me as scum in a recent coalition game where I had a lot of sway/was broadly townread in the coalition phase and I did make explicit attempts to get my scumbuddy (Datisi, who got replaced by Save The Dragons) off the coalition. For instance this post I give an ordered reads list with Datisi 3rd scummiest. But especially this post I think is really important for understanding how I approach this setup as scum; my usual scumgame is to primarily just try to do whatever I think I'd do in that situation as town, but that post was me very explicitly trying to get my scumbuddy off the coalition with me (because it's mechanically advantageous) while hedging my bets (hence saying I wanted to swap my scumbuddy or maybe someone else for my pet townread).

[implosion]

Okay. new pet scumteam: duck/moros?

I'm going over my reasons for townreading Moros and they're not bad, I think, but they're certainly not ironclad. It's broadly that Moros looked unagenda'd and like it was broadly just giving takes and speaking its mind but I think this can also be interpreted in a negative light as scum who is riding an early townread and is content to not be the driving force behind where the coalition goes. And I mentioned earlier that there was some post from duck that would make sense if Moros is scum with him. This would make me incredibly sad because it's the two people who were hard townreading me most of the game lol

(I don't actually think this is specifically likely to be the scumteam and I think I'm more interested in limming tired person over Moros at this moment but while we're putting out pet scumteams)

[Black]

I'm wondering if the advantage you get from splitting is large enough to make you do the same thing every time you play. I'm bad at mechanics so I'm not sure, but to me it seems like it's only an advantage in the short term. There's a larger chance that one of you gets faded in the first few Days but after one of you is gone it's fair game. Scum could be in either group at that point

I also think it would be advantageous for you to do something different this game, so you can make the exact argument you're making now. I'm not really sure if that was the plan here though. I think if I'm right then coalition!May gained so much momentum that you couldn't stop it

[implosion]

okay
i guess i'm not ousting implosion from the list
HEAL: black, may, moros, implosion, tsawwassen

This is a super peculiar post. tired person, when you made this post, did you think that Black had just changed her coalition to match May's? Because here you heal May's proposed coalition in a resigned way but the only thing you could seemingly be reacting to is Black's unheal and heal a couple posts earlier but Black actually unhealed someone she had already unhealed previously.

I sort of assume this is what happened and if so this is highly relevant because it's tired person

thinking

that they were putting a coalition that is the coalition that passed, minus tired person plus Tsawwassen, at c-2. I.e., if tired person is scum, then either (1) tired person is not the only scum on the coalition or (2) tired person is scum with Tsawwassen, or (3) tired person was willing to gambit a correct coalition to c-2. All of these are possible but still worth pointing out, maybe someone else has already mentioned this

[implosion]

I'm wondering if the advantage you get from splitting is large enough to make you do the same thing every time you play. I'm bad at mechanics so I'm not sure, but to me it seems like it's only an advantage in the short term. There's a larger chance that one of you gets faded in the first few Days but after one of you is gone it's fair game. Scum could be in either group at that point

I also think it would be advantageous for you to do something different this game, so you can make the exact argument you're making now. I'm not really sure if that was the plan here though. I think if I'm right then coalition!May gained so much momentum that you couldn't stop it

The advantage from splitting is generally that it's optimal for town to lim on coalition first, and that if scum are split then on-coalition is 1/5 vs 2/5 if they're not. Honestly I think that the strict play-to-win part of my brain might be outclassed in this regard by the dopamine-seeking part of my brain that wanted a split coalition in that game lol. I don't think I would play strictly for a split coalition in 100% of games, and that's not what I'm trying to say by pointing to the meta - I guess strictly I don't really know how I'd play if put in this situation again as I'm town in this game and in the scum coalition game I played between that one and this one I was on the outskirts all coalition phase.

I'm not pointing to that meta to try to paint myself as town really, I'm pointing to it because I think it's highly relevant and might help out reading me, though I'm not 100% sure how. Frankly part of the reason I said I think the theory of me+may is sensible from an outside perspective is because I think a surface level reading of my meta from that game paints me+may as possible because I could see an interpretation of my play in this game as dancing around the idea of calling May town all phase because of a fear of double scum coalition or something like that.

Basically the reason the theory is wrong isn't because it's a bad theory based on associatives i think, it's because i happen to be town. Compare when I thought someone might be calling me + umlaut scum earlier and i was like lmao no

[implosion]

VOTE: tired person

[the worst]

I'm wondering if the advantage you get from splitting is large enough to make you do the same thing every time you play. I'm bad at mechanics so I'm not sure, but to me it seems like it's only an advantage in the short term. There's a larger chance that one of you gets faded in the first few Days but after one of you is gone it's fair game. Scum could be in either group at that point

I also think it would be advantageous for you to do something different this game, so you can make the exact argument you're making now. I'm not really sure if that was the plan here though. I think if I'm right then coalition!May gained so much momentum that you couldn't stop it

Getting 2 scum in the coalition is only really feasible if they're both pretty universally townread & capable of driving miselims.

it's not a bad theory. If it's not disproven the value of flipping like, probably May off the top of my head, increases quite a bit.

I just don't think it's super highly likely compared to just having one scum outperform & the other one be vibing outside the coalition

[Tsawwassen]

Occam's razor points to tired person + Aventurine

Don't stop what y'all were doing though. Cat fight in the coalition! Rawr rawr!