open 914: the coalition (this is completed)

[the worst]

My tp tonwread is a lot more abstract I'm gonna revisit this when i have time.

[Black]

I don't think I'm buying implosion's "I probably wouldn't do this as scum" argument, and I don't think the disadvantage of having both scum on the coalition is big enough for me to consider the pair unlikely. I think the sequence of [vaguely townread each other and get in the coalition together>>>use townreads on each other to try to survive 40% chance one is faded D1>>>try to survive 50% chance one is faded D2>>>win D3 or go into an F3 with the coalition/splitting argument on their side ] is completely viable as an alternative to splitting. And I think they were both townread enough in the coalition phase to pull it off

Together scenario:

TTTSS | TTTT
-town gets faded D1, scum shoot in outsiders

TTSS | TTT
-town gets faded D2, scum shoot in outsiders

TSS | TT
-if town is faded it's gg. If scum is faded and another outsider gets shot...

TS | T
-a completely winnable F3

Even if scum is faded D1, it turns into STTT | TTT and a gamestate where people should theoretically be looking at the outsiders. Last scum is generally townread and just picks people off from the comfort of the coalition until F3

Split scenario:

TTTTS | TTTS
-town gets faded D1, scum shoots in outsiders

TTTS | TTS
-town gets faded D2, scum shoots in outsiders

TTS | TS
-this is a better situation for scum than the D3 in the together scenario, which is where the advantage comes in. If scum gets faded here then outsider scum has to decide whether to hit in the coalition or the other outsider. T | TS and TT | S are interesting F3s

So yes, I fully agree it's optimal to split, but the together scenario is definitely a decent path to victory

[Black]

I will consider arguments for tired person tomorrow just to make sure I don't get too tunneled

[implosion]

I don't think I'm buying implosion's "I probably wouldn't do this as scum" argument,

okay first off you're very seriously misinterpreting my posting

i am not arguing that i wouldn't do something as scum. I explicitly said I don't know how I'd be playing this setup as scum in this game! I think there's a good chance that form a purely partner-play perspective, my play toward may could be exactly what i'd have done as scum in this game. Where are you getting this idea that I'm making a "I probably wouldn't do this as scum" argument from?

[Black]

I'm sorry if I'm misunderstanding you! I promise it's not intentional. I just don't see any other reason for you to bring up the meta. You said you were hoping it would help us read you but you didn't know how, and I don't really know how either. If you've shunned your teammates as scum but you're saying you wouldn't always do that then it should be NAI for you

[implosion]

For the sake of doing the math.

If both scum are on coalition, EV is:

2/5: goto 1:6 mountainous, which is 0.543 EV.
3/5: mislim. scum shoot outside coalition. From here,

1/2: goto 1:4 mountainous, which is 0.467 EV.
1/2: mislim. scum shoot outside coalition. From here,

2/3: goto 1:2 mountainous, which is 0.333 EV.
1/3: scum win, 0 EV.

Overall EV: ((2 / 5) * (0.543)) + ((3 / 5) * ((1 / 2) * (0.467) + (1 / 2) * ((2 / 3) * (0.333))))
= 0.4239

---

If scum are split, EV is:

1/5: goto 1:6 mountainous, which is 0.543 EV.
4/5: mislim. scum shoot outside coalition. From here,

1/4: goto 1:4 mountainous, which is 0.467 EV.
3/4: mislim. scum shoot outside coalition. From here,

1/3: goto 1:2 mountainous, which is 0.333 EV.
2/3: scum win, 0 EV.

Overall EV: ((1 / 5) * (0.543)) + ((4 / 5) * ((1 / 4) * (0.467) + (3 / 4) * ((1 / 3) * (0.333))))
= 0.2686

This is actually a bigger difference than I'd have expected. Town is, overall, over 1 and a half times likelier to win the game if scum are together in the coalition compared to them being split, based solely on EV.

This is *NOT AN ARGUMENT FOR HOW I'D PLAY IN THIS GAME*, just doing it for its own sake and i might want to reference this in the future anyway

[implosion]

I'm sorry if I'm misunderstanding you! I promise it's not intentional. I just don't see any other reason for you to bring up the meta. You said you were hoping it would help us read you but you didn't know how, and I don't really know how either. If you've shunned your teammates as scum but you're saying you wouldn't always do that then it should be NAI for you

I think the reason I'm bringing it up is twofold: on the one hand, I am town, and in principle it's possible to distinguish my play this game from my scum game, and in principle it's your job to do that if you are town, so by giving you highly relevant meta I feel like I'm giving you a tool that you can potentially use to do that. Hence "i don't know exactly how this will be useful but I think it will be", because, well, I feel like if I was the kind of person who used meta much (and i sort of am and sort of am not, and idk if you are) and I was trying to read someone and there was such an intensely relevant game then I'd want to know about it.

But on the other hand, I just kind of think it's really neat that I'm in such a similar situation to a situation that I was recently in as scum and kind of wanted to point it out, I guess?

[May]

you seem like you're saying "i'm helping you townread me black" but then, not doing that

calculating the odds than going "holy shit, i've never seen these odds before" doesn't really build a model of how you played before you learned the odds

ideally you are just implosioning in a way that doesn't accomplish anyway, or trying to give credence to my fiddlesticks fanfiction, but at worst it's supposed to look good in a performative way

I have the opposite take I am mafia with implosion in addition to Black and Moros this is discussed in my first post and our probability of victory is 98%

[May]

*accomplish anything

[May]

I don't know why implo made eleventyseven hedgy posts about my alignment but I kinda lump it in with weird stuff people have said about me for I don't know how many games now. Everyone comes up with their own version of why I'm special unless I'm secret alting and they just find me town

[May]

both scum and town do it

[May]

It's not super distinguishable from the body of Black's posting on me but nowadays if I think I've spewed town I only hold people responsible for figuring it out if they're named Dannflor or Chara

[tired person]

VOTE: implosion

[tired person]

This is a super peculiar post. tired person, when you made this post, did you think that Black had just changed her coalition to match May's? Because here you heal May's proposed coalition in a resigned way but the only thing you could seemingly be reacting to is Black's unheal and heal a couple posts earlier but Black actually unhealed someone she had already unhealed previously.

i thought she just changed her coalition to match moros, and i decided that if the choice was between moros's and may's, i preferred may's.

[tired person]

i think these are the only viable scumteams right now, assuming that i am town (which i know but all of u don't) and that my townreads are correct (which i maybe mistakenly want to believe):

implosion/aventurine
implosion/the worst
moros/the worst
implosion/moros
moros/aventurine
moros/experience

i didn't do any digging into them yet but i will later on.

[Black]

you seem like you're saying "i'm helping you townread me black" but then, not doing that

calculating the odds than going "holy shit, i've never seen these odds before" doesn't really build a model of how you played before you learned the odds

ideally you are just implosioning in a way that doesn't accomplish anyway, or trying to give credence to my fiddlesticks fanfiction, but at worst it's supposed to look good in a performative way

I have the opposite take I am mafia with implosion in addition to Black and Moros this is discussed in my first post and our probability of victory is 98%

Would you be down to fade implosion today?

[Tsawwassen]

I'm a sucker for the no frills brain dump from tired person tbh

[May]

I would be down to fade implosion

[Black]

Hmmm. Ok

[May]

tp I think it's not useful to mass post all possible teams

If its a precursor to a plan to do a bunch of preflip association scum hunting I think it's an inefficient way to win at mafia

It's like the most unsortable thing ever because you work backwards from some kind of entry that appeared in the list and work backwards is a scum thing

[May]

Hmmm. Ok

I think Mayplosion is rly cool I don't want to disrupt that I'll emphasize my branding or "bus and play solo" when I rand scum.

I'm solo scum this game. With three of my best friends.

[May]

1020 looks like a leafraking

[May]

Tired person is like a weaker version of cutter B but I did rather like the cutter b arc

[May]

I'm a sucker for the no frills brain dump from tired person tbh

I'm recommending against actually doing the exercise but I feel neutral the dump happened. you think it's more likely to come from town?

[implosion]

It's hardly a dump, it's tired person listing the 4 choose 2 possible lists of 2 people out of the 4 they think might be scum. My reads are actually very similar to tired person's except for my read on tired person.