Shell Game (Day 8)

[Lukewarm]

I guess I don't understand what the hierarchy of your reads is supposed to be

if you're confident enough to write a big post casing me you shouldn't be compromising to someone who literally can't be scum with me

If you're more uncertain between us you shouldn't be writing a big post specifically casing me

That is simply not how I think about when I should explain my reads.

There was simply no reason to wait until I am ready to commit to your elim.

I think it is beneficial to lay the suspicions out there, especially if i feel like my oppinions are novel amongst the player list. Both to make sure that other players are considering my pov before deciding if they trust you, and also for me to see other people's opinions on my takes.

So generally, if a topic is taking up a lot of my game thoughts, I am gonna post about it, unless I see specific utility in waiting.

[experience]

Why are they on the same level as marci in your reads, then?

And why does that make Save the Dragons town?

oops. i was trying to multitask and forgot to reply to this.
they were on the same level, because of interactions in our hood.
for why i think std is town, i would say it would be both for reminding me about the mod note and for hood interactions.

[morph the cat]

i think that i'm starting to feel paranoid about luke now.

Generally one has to have fully formed reads that represent the entire gamestate BEFORE developing any "paranoia" on them?

[morph the cat]

because

std was the one to point out the note in the hood

when as mafia, he didn't have to.

And

why

does that make Save the Dragons town?

for why i think std is town, i would say it would be both for

reminding me about the mod note

and for hood interactions.

Your honor, I call that an answer dodge gish gallop. Repeating the answer that was insufficient. Yellow card.

[Dunnstral]

They are not repeating, actually. I think they are talking about two different posts

[Dunnstral]

Wait, no. They are talking about the same post.

I undnerstood it as talking about a post in the hood and the post in this thread.

[Dunnstral]

That's fair but like can you justify it with the note from the mod in the hood or the way we seem to be inspired by dethy?

This is the post experience is talking about.

Speaking of, why does this make Save The Dragons town? At this point the dethy is common knowledge so pointing that out does not seem towny to me.

[morph the cat]

If anything it's the opposite. Why would you want to warn a player about that? I would want to get all the extra data out of it that I possibly could before they realized themselves because that timing is also alignment indicative.

[Firebagel]

For these to be True Thoughts coming from a town!wolfbae, it would require them to be currently thinking about their own alignment being flipped prior to dunns, in a way that simply does not make sense for them to be thinking about.

It also has a built in belief that people will come back and re-evaluate their dunn reads, based on their flip. Which I don't believe that they actually believe that people are particularly likely to do that.

Which leaves these lines feeling like their actual purpose is to sound like they are secure in the knowledge that they are going to flip town, in order to get town read.

Are you forgetting that he's in a hood that is like 85% assumed to be a form of dethy? If we flip the scum in that hood, the others are going to be assumed to be town. His PoV would be that he believes he's rather successfully wagoning the scum in the hood, and thus is likely to be shown as town sooner rather than later.

There is a built in implication to their posts that town is simply dropping the ball, not trying, needs to reset, ect.

This feels like the approach needed if they repped into a scum read slot, following a scum flip, with a scum team that did not have the thread standing to save Brian. But not really the pov that makes sense when repping in as town immediately following a day 1 scum elim.

Hey, thanks for making that point, because it's yet another aspect of why I'm scumreading Save the Dragons.

That line he fed me about having a false sense of security was just sheer manipulation in an attempt to stoke paranoia. It's not something you say to someone you think is scum, it's something you say to someone you know is town who's right and you don't want them to be.

[Save The Dragons]

For these to be True Thoughts coming from a town!wolfbae, it would require them to be currently thinking about their own alignment being flipped prior to dunns, in a way that simply does not make sense for them to be thinking about.

It also has a built in belief that people will come back and re-evaluate their dunn reads, based on their flip. Which I don't believe that they actually believe that people are particularly likely to do that.

Which leaves these lines feeling like their actual purpose is to sound like they are secure in the knowledge that they are going to flip town, in order to get town read.

Are you forgetting that he's in a hood that is like 85% assumed to be a form of dethy? If we flip the scum in that hood, the others are going to be assumed to be town. His PoV would be that he believes he's rather successfully wagoning the scum in the hood, and thus is likely to be shown as town sooner rather than later.

There is a built in implication to their posts that town is simply dropping the ball, not trying, needs to reset, ect.

This feels like the approach needed if they repped into a scum read slot, following a scum flip, with a scum team that did not have the thread standing to save Brian. But not really the pov that makes sense when repping in as town immediately following a day 1 scum elim.

Hey, thanks for making that point, because it's yet another aspect of why I'm scumreading Save the Dragons.

That line he fed me about having a false sense of security was just sheer manipulation in an attempt to stoke paranoia. It's not something you say to someone you think is scum, it's something you say to someone you know is town who's right and you don't want them to be.

I don't remember saying anything like that

[Save The Dragons]

If anything it's the opposite. Why would you want to warn a player about that? I would want to get all the extra data out of it that I possibly could before they realized themselves because that timing is also alignment indicative.

R u 4 real

I dunno how I'm supposed to have a conversation about the gamestat3 if I'm waiting for experience to never read a post

[Save The Dragons]

i don't think that just because scum didn't step in and save Brian that they don't have influence and I think getting yourself into a false sense of security like that is dangerous

Lol my b I found it

What a wise and pertinent point

[Dunnstral]

If anything it's the opposite. Why would you want to warn a player about that? I would want to get all the extra data out of it that I possibly could before they realized themselves because that timing is also alignment indicative.

R u 4 real

I dunno how I'm supposed to have a conversation about the gamestat3 if I'm waiting for experience to never read a post

This is not meant as shade on you, just trying to understand how experience is forming a read on you from small snippets of posting. For me at least.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Why are they on the same level as marci in your reads, then?

And why does that make Save the Dragons town?

oops. i was trying to multitask and forgot to reply to this.
they were on the same level, because of interactions in our hood.
for why i think std is town, i would say it would be both for reminding me about the mod note and for hood interactions.

Which pages of the game thread have you read?

[Lukewarm]

It doesn't actually make sense to me that they wolfbae is claiming to be pre-flipping cakez town and also that if cakez is town, my play was extremely scummy, but also is actively disinterested in examining if their take holds water.

I am having a growing feeling that they are not interested in pushing/further examining it because the intent was simply to lay the groundwork for after an eventual town!cakez elim, which can be advantageous down the line, but committing to it right now is not beneficial to them.

I am having a (admittedly probably bad) urge to flip cakez to force them to play that hand literally tomorrow if I am right, instead of being able to sit on it until it is most advantageous for them to play it.

[Sunflower]

he isn't disinterested in examining it, he examined it in the hood 2 days ago, the process for coming to the conclusion he did is pretty visible

i don't really get why you think he'd be more likely to "lay the groundwork" without really pushing hard as scum compared to town. what's beneficial about that?

[Lukewarm]

If they are scum, then I do think that they think that it is an arguable position.

I can see the argument being made, and it is probably a pretty easy position to come just looking at my iso, but don't think that it holds water when looking at everything in context of the thread. That is my point when I said that

it's a bad read that ignores a lot of the how and when.

Not just in a "it does not make me scum" way, but in a "I don't think that they can could genuinely continue to hold to the position that that is what it would look like if I was interested in saving Brian" when further examined.

And my comment on "disinterested in examining if their take holds water." Is partially about them landing at that take, without then digging enough to see that AND that following that post, they are both not doing that and seemingly not interested in why I would say it.

i don't really get why you think he'd be more likely to "lay the groundwork" without really pushing hard as scum compared to town. what's beneficial about that?

1) I have personal experience of them doing a "lay the ground work play" - this is a unique to this user take, they are the kind of person who thinks about the game in the long term.

2) there is a lot of benefit from not actually pushing it right now if they are scum. From my PoV, I am very likely un-miselimable so long as morph and hermit are alive. So the pushing right now is actively pointless, especially while they are courting both of those players to work with them.

Waiting also allows other people be contributing pushers, so it is not tied directly to them (see marci being swayed enough by their hood posting to have named me as a prefered vote).

[Lukewarm]

I have personal experience of them doing a "lay the ground work play" - this is a unique to this user take, they are the kind of person who thinks about the game in the long term.

For reference:

Spoiler:

I had a game against scum them, they repped into that one to.

When they started the game, the first thing that they did was announce that they started by reading my iso, and that they were starting out suspicious of me. But then fairly quickly backed down from that read, never to be spoken of again for the remainder of the game.

I found out in the post game, that that was a pre-planned entry maneuver, specifically laying the ground work so that if they needed to sway my read (and only my read) of them in like 3-5 game days, they could prompt me to ask my self "why did they start with my iso right away?"

Because they wanted to be able to guide me to the answer that Town!them would start with my iso, but scum!them would not. The reason being that in our prior game they thought I was so incredibly obviously town, that town!them would start there hoping for an easy read, while scum!them would not want to start with me because they would have assumed that I was town telling already based on that prior game.

That groundwork did not even play out, but they actively, intentionally laid it *just in case*

So yeah, I think they are a uniquely long term thinking scum player.

[experience]

Why are they on the same level as marci in your reads, then?

And why does that make Save the Dragons town?

oops. i was trying to multitask and forgot to reply to this.
they were on the same level, because of interactions in our hood.
for why i think std is town, i would say it would be both for reminding me about the mod note and for hood interactions.

Which pages of the game thread have you read?

for the main thread, it'd be dann's iso, a lot of the recent posts, and of course, a skim-through of the isos of the people in the hood.

[experience]

I have personal experience of them doing a "lay the ground work play" - this is a unique to this user take, they are the kind of person who thinks about the game in the long term.

For reference:

Spoiler:

I had a game against scum them, they repped into that one to.

When they started the game, the first thing that they did was announce that they started by reading my iso, and that they were starting out suspicious of me. But then fairly quickly backed down from that read, never to be spoken of again for the remainder of the game.

I found out in the post game, that that was a pre-planned entry maneuver, specifically laying the ground work so that if they needed to sway my read (and only my read) of them in like 3-5 game days, they could prompt me to ask my self "why did they start with my iso right away?"

Because they wanted to be able to guide me to the answer that Town!them would start with my iso, but scum!them would not. The reason being that in our prior game they thought I was so incredibly obviously town, that town!them would start there hoping for an easy read, while scum!them would not want to start with me because they would have assumed that I was town telling already based on that prior game.

That groundwork did not even play out, but they actively, intentionally laid it *just in case*

So yeah, I think they are a uniquely long term thinking scum player.

luke, would you say that meta pertaining to who you suspect wolfbae is, is influencing your read on him?

[Lukewarm]

Having sent that, I am having the feeling that typing all of that out is likely to have a negative effect of the grok-ability of my position to the average reader.

So maybe ignore that, and take the spark notes:

- I believe that they are the type of player that takes pride in setting up dominoes to push down later. Like, actively makes them feel like a better scum player.

- It is a much easier thing to push later on (multiple factors)

- Setting it up now, and letting other people (such as marci) push it for them makes it less likely to lead to backlash after a town!me flip.

[Lukewarm]

luke, would you say that meta pertaining to who you suspect wolfbae is, is influencing your read on him?

Yes. Their identity is central to my suspicions of how they are approaching me.

[experience]

luke, would you say that meta pertaining to who you suspect wolfbae is, is influencing your read on him?

Yes. Their identity is central to my suspicions of how they are approaching me.

i see. i think have a suspicion as to who you might think wolfbae is now.

[experience]

tho I would probably say that as with people using my main's meta against me, i don't think using their identity is exactly a good idea.

[experience]

on the other hand, i feel slightly better about you (given i've seen you do something similar as town) that maybe you can go in my nulltown pile.