Mini 722: Neapolitan Mafia (Over)

[don_johnson]

so, why don't we randomly lynch you? there are facts available. votes are facts. numbers of posts are facts. please don't avoid my questions:

1) how can anyone counterclaim such bizarre roles?

2) what do you think the benefit of a claim will be?

3) wouldn't you assume that someone who is valuable to town would claim at that point, whether or not you asked them?

4) are you working on the assumption that everyone has an even or odd night powered role?

hopefully that makes it easier for you.

[Lindisfarne]

Hrnk.

Just typed up a damn long post, and when I went to post, it said I had to log in. The whole post is now gone. Took me all morning for that.

Work is getting busy and my lunch break is almost over, so I'm not going to be able to redo it. I'm going out of town tonight until Sunday as well, so you won't hear from me until then.

Big thing though: Zach, does your role have some weird aspects of it like mine, or is it a normal role? A lot hinges on that. I'll reveal more on Sunday.

Folks that are townie to me:

Myself
Psycho
Zach
Magnus

in that order. I'll go into more detail Sunday. Everyone else is either null tell/could be scum. I may be able to add another person to that list on Sunday.

Oh, and

unvote

We are onto something here, and I'd hate to comeback to see someone lynched and the day end.

Have a good weekend, everyone.

[tyhess]

I don't get your first vote sentence at all, but I'll try to answer your questions here. I'm assuming they were meant for me. But, like I said, there's points to both and that's why I thought we should decide now. Also, if the only facts we have are votes and number of posts, those really aren't going to help us much.

1) They may be bizarre, but they're also (most likely) close to normal roles. It's not like there's going to be an UnNightkillable Unlynchable 2 Nightkills a Day Vig or something completely random. We should be able to have a good sense of whether or not it's a legitamate role or if they're making one up, and if it's a legitimate role, chance are that there will be someone who can counterclaim.

2) Like I said, it may be able to get a chance to clear someone.

3) Wouldn't you also assume that scum would claim? So instead of saying should we ask for a claim, maybe I should've asked how much stock we'll put into it?

4) No?

Not really.

[Zachrulez]

Big thing though: Zach, does your role have some weird aspects of it like mine, or is it a normal role? A lot hinges on that. I'll reveal more on Sunday.

The role is normal. The only thing I would say is weird about it is the fact that I can only use it on even nights.

[Isacc]

if "odd" doesn't clear zach, then what's the point?

It leads to a situation in which we can clear or confirm Zach's towniness/scumminess.

the question was not "do you have an even or odd night powered role?"
the question was also opened up to everyone. i saw no connection that you claim everyone should have seen.

Except that Zach said he understood the question. Also here is proof that Zach's answer was based on a role, from post 175.

Linde is odd and we possibly have the same role

Or he has a role where he can tell whether roles of the dynamic that mine are set up in are even or odd, and is thus easily able to tell who lies about this.

Zach knew it was a question about his role. He knew that even/odd had to do with his role. Therefore, he has shown us that "even" does refer to his role.

Plus, Don. Why are you so worked up over Zach? Why are you so concerned for him? Most of the people that have voted him have said it will only last until someone claims odd. Also, some of them have already taken their vote off of him. He is not in danger of a lynch, so why are you jumping so fanatically to his rescue?

[Isacc]

Simulpost that actually proved one of my points. View Zach's post right there, Don, and you'll see that Zach's role IS one that works on even nights.

[magnus_orion]

Mod: I unvoted, post 282. 'kay if I start reding them?

and I agree with the four LF pointed out, plus I think 2 other people are town, but I'm waiting for an odd claim from one of them (I believe I know who it is.)

That leaves 6 suspects. I guess 3 scum with 1/4 rule of thumb.

And there is one other bit of info that could knock two more from that list, but I'll come to that once the odd claims.

[Isacc]

Magnus, if you wouldn't mind (you don't have to answer if you feel like it would hurt the town somehow), can you tell us if the person you suspect to be the odd role is one of the less active people? Or is it someone who has kept on posting but isn't claiming?

Again, don't answer if you see any danger to the town in doing so.

[don_johnson]

if "odd" doesn't clear zach, then what's the point?

It leads to a situation in which we can clear or confirm Zach's towniness/scumminess.

okay, i guess i just don't see how.

Linde is odd and we possibly have the same role

Or he has a role where he can tell whether roles of the dynamic that mine are set up in are even or odd, and is thus easily able to tell who lies about this.

Zach knew it was a question about his role. He knew that even/odd had to do with his role. Therefore, he has shown us that "even" does refer to his role.

Plus, Don. Why are you so worked up over Zach? Why are you so concerned for him? Most of the people that have voted him have said it will only last until someone claims odd. Also, some of them have already taken their vote off of him. He is not in danger of a lynch, so why are you jumping so fanatically to his rescue?

yes. that is apparent now. i was misunderstanding. can't say i'm worked up over zach as much as i am worked up over the bad arguments against him. i simply haven't seen any scummy behavior from him and the votes seemed unwarranted. what worries me is that town is distracted, though, recent events suggest we are getting back on line. i'm not going to fault LF for his real life issues, but i would like to see more from him. it seems as though his gambit was to start narrowing down the field and i think it is working, but we have a lot of conjecture mixed up with our facts so i would really like his take on what has happened.


ty:

3) Wouldn't you also assume that scum would claim? So instead of saying should we ask for a claim, maybe I should've asked how much stock we'll put into it?

part of why i asked you. whether or not we ask for a claim probably won't matter as most people at L-1 will claim if they haven't already. with the amount of claiming and set up talk we have had i don't think it would be difficult for scum to fake claim. so if you ask how much stock we should put into it, then i would say not much. our cops are out(allegedly) so doc(s) is/are really the only one(s) i would be worried about protecting. does that make sense?

[magnus_orion]

I'm not sure if answering will hurt the town... I want to wait until someone claims odd.

Also, by now Zach is almost guarunteed town. The number of votes put on him put him in a risk situation...

Simple logic really:

Zach is scum. 'Nother scum claims odd. Both are cleared for now.

Zach is town. Scum will have the idea that zach will have an odd partner. If a scum claims odd, they will be counter-claimed. Only the odd player can claim.

No one has claimed odd and most players have posted, therefore, scum must be unwilling to claim odd. The only reason why would be zach is town.

However, the odd person claiming now will verify them as town. I need this info to make sure I'm right. Otherwise people may doubt my reasoning, when it comes time to reveal it.

[Isacc]

Zach is scum. 'Nother scum claims odd. Both are cleared for now.

Zach is town. Scum will have the idea that zach will have an odd partner. If a scum claims odd, they will be counter-claimed. Only the odd player can claim.

No one has claimed odd and most players have posted, therefore, scum must be unwilling to claim odd. The only reason why would be zach is town.

This was pretty similar to my reasoning of why a claim of odd wouldn't instantly validate his towniness.

Although, I see one further possibility from this

Zach is scum. The other scums had already claimed not-odd before they realized they might need to claim odd, and so they are stuck right now.

I don't think it's likely, but I wouldn't discount it.

[Isacc]

Sorry about the double post, but I forgot...

@Don:

Mmk. You seem to be working things out, but do not doubt I will keep the earlier actions in mind if there is further evidence.

[don_johnson]

Sorry about the double post, but I forgot...

@Don:

Mmk. You seem to be working things out, but do not doubt I will keep the earlier actions in mind if there is further evidence.

you confuse me. what "earlier actions" are you referring to? this sounds like some sort of veiled threat. instilling fear is a type of low level psychological manipulation. please explain yourself.

[tyhess]

ty:

3) Wouldn't you also assume that scum would claim? So instead of saying should we ask for a claim, maybe I should've asked how much stock we'll put into it?

part of why i asked you. whether or not we ask for a claim probably won't matter as most people at L-1 will claim if they haven't already. with the amount of claiming and set up talk we have had i don't think it would be difficult for scum to fake claim. so if you ask how much stock we should put into it, then i would say not much. our cops are out(allegedly) so doc(s) is/are really the only one(s) i would be worried about protecting. does that make sense?

I'm still thinking that it would be quite difficult to counter claim, because, let's assume, that we have 2 cops out there, and that Zach and person X are doctors, working even/odd (just assume that). That gives 4 semi confirmed roles. Let's say 3 mafia. That means that there are 5 roles out there to counterclaim a scum's vote. At this early in the game, I think we have enough people in this game that it might be worth it to believe his any claim, if there is no counter claim.

I would like a couple other people to chime in on this topic. I get your point, but in a sense I'm trying to play devil's advocate here.

Zach is scum. 'Nother scum claims odd. Both are cleared for now.

I just don't see this. If another person claims odd, and we lynch Zach, and he comes up Scum, we now have a 2nd scum to lynch. It may have been worth it for mafiaZach to say even, but it's not worth is for mafiaY to claim odd.

[Isacc]

Sorry about the double post, but I forgot...

@Don:

Mmk. You seem to be working things out, but do not doubt I will keep the earlier actions in mind if there is further evidence.

you confuse me. what "earlier actions" are you referring to? this sounds like some sort of veiled threat. instilling fear is a type of low level psychological manipulation. please explain yourself.

No, you misunderstand. I'm saying, the fact that you seemed to jump to Zach's aid seems well explained, but I will keep it in mind if in the future, things make it more suspicious.

[magnus_orion]

Zach is scum. The other scums had already claimed not-odd before they realized they might need to claim odd, and so they are stuck right now.

However, by the 1/4 rule of thumb I think its safe to assume at least 3 scum, especially in a game where all town are power roles. Could I have a list of people who have claimed not odd? I know me and you, but there may be others that I don't know off hand.

[Isacc]

Zach is scum. 'Nother scum claims odd. Both are cleared for now.

I just don't see this. If another person claims odd, and we lynch Zach, and he comes up Scum, we now have a 2nd scum to lynch. It may have been worth it for mafiaZach to say even, but it's not worth is for mafiaY to claim odd.

Why would we lynch Zach if another person claimed odd? The point being made by Magnus, I think, is that if another scum claimed odd, then for now they'd be pretty safe, like LF and Psycho.

[magnus_orion]

double post

I just don't see this. If another person claims odd, and we lynch Zach, and he comes up Scum, we now have a 2nd scum to lynch. It may have been worth it for mafiaZach to say even, but it's not worth is for mafiaY to claim odd.

What is the probability we (the town) will be lynching zach in the near future in the scenario that someone claims odd?

[magnus_orion]

ebwop: Isaac beat me to it...

[Isacc]

I think I remembered Rogue claiming he wasn't an odd role. Don't take my word for it though.

[tyhess]

double post

I just don't see this. If another person claims odd, and we lynch Zach, and he comes up Scum, we now have a 2nd scum to lynch. It may have been worth it for mafiaZach to say even, but it's not worth is for mafiaY to claim odd.

What is the probability we (the town) will be lynching zach in the near future in the scenario that someone claims odd?

Maybe not now, but something that could happen later...

[magnus_orion]

But its more likely that we lynch zach then.
And if zach is mafia then they lose a mafia.

[tyhess]

magnus-
1st sentence is what I said
2nd sentence-?

[UnofficialRulerOfEveryone]

Once again, sorry to magnus for missing his unvote, since this is near the end of the page I will not be making another vote count, but please note the new rule regarding voting.

Votes will only be counted if they are in the format

%% Vote: PLAYERNAME

, starting immediately. (I will count votes not done in this fashion up to the point of this post.) Also, another notice about this will be posted with the vote count.

[Zachrulez]

You guys are discussing the possibility of lynching a partially claimed power role.

You're also into faulty logic that an odd claim will clear me.

Lets humor the scenario that I'm mafia... and also the scenario that EVERY possible odd/even role has a pair.

Ok, So I'm mafia... I had no real suspicion on me before LF opened up that question. I take a shot at it, lie, and claim even.

Whether or not someone eventually claims odd in this situation. I'm still lying.

Your making an assumption about the game setup that you are likely not able to even begin to understand.

You're assuming that because I claimed even I must have an odd paired role in order to be telling the truth, there is no reason to believe this assumption.

You're assuming if someone else claims odd that I am automatically cleared. I could still be lying. Hell, someone could claim odd, and then someone else even after that and we'd be right back where we started!

I frankly don't care much for all this crap of trying to outguess the mod, or trying to outguess the mod in order to figure out what the value of the play would be if I was scum.

I was not heavily suspected prior to the odd/even question and as scum I would have no reason to take a risk like that when I was more then likely sitting pretty good to get through day one without having any real attention on me.

Seems to me that there's a lot of playing into fear here about what I am, whether I'm telling the truth about what I have claimed so far, and whether or not I was gambiting as scum.

This lynch mob on me makes no sense at all... namely the lynching a partially claimed role part. Is there not a reasonable amount of time in the subsequent days to figure out whether or not I'm lying or how consistent I am?

I'll tell you this much. Lynching me is going to reveal nothing more then the fact that I've been telling you guys the truth all along.