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Post Post #375 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 4:38 am

Post by RedCoyote »

Spolium 373 wrote:Who did [spring] protect, and why?
The million dollar question.
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Post Post #376 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 5:53 am

Post by Spolium »

In regard to the Jebus case, I still don't like how he was chasing everyone's top three suspects. In case my concern wasn't clear when I quizzed him about it (#302, #317), if he is scum then he was fishing for suspicious players to leave alive on D2.

Also, #319 suggests that he was unwilling to front his own suspicions before hearing others, which begs the question: why?
Goat wrote:Seriously? This is a highly complicated gambit that is both extremely unlikely and has a huge chance to fail. What if there was a real doc, who counterclaimed both of them? Besides the fact that it would be hilarious for two scum to out themselves in a unnecessarily complicated failing gambit day 1, the chances of them actually attempting to coordinate something like this is pretty much zero.

I'm pretty suspicious of this here. Resistance to confirming innocents is scummy.
However unlikely, I see it as a viable option, and hardly a complicated one. The only real problem was the one you mentioned - that scum could not be sure that there was a doc in the town. Regardless, the following points are of concern to me:

- In #360, Spring chastises Lynx for suggesting that Budja's claim was bold, and declares suspicion of him. It's like she was trying to draw attention away from any focus on Budja's claim (and by extension the potential implications of her counter-claim).

- The deadline was two days away. Why counter-claim when she did? Budja was the prime candidate for a lynch anyway, so why put herself at risk of being NKed when it could have been avoided?

- Budja's "good luck scumbuddy" post stands out for it's "at least I got you the Doc" comment. In fact, the brief exchange between him and Spring has the faintest hint of a last-minute distancing attempt.
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Post Post #377 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 9:19 am

Post by Lynx The Antithesis »

Ok so Day 2 no townies dead, still have claimed doctor, and a scum lynch on day 1. I like where the town stands. First the lack of any kill last night indicates the lack of a third party scum such as a SK. The reason for the no kill must either be due to a lazy, delayed, or inactive scum or a successful doc protection last night. Now I'm not sure why scum would target anyone besides the doctor(Perhaps to create a situation where the town begins to suspect the doctor considering that she's still alive. But it would just be a stupid move by scum to leave the doctor alive I think.

As for Spring's claim, I certainly believe it. I highly extremely doubt that scum A would claim doctor, then scum B would counterclaim doctor. This would create a horrible situation for the scum if the real doctor claimed and entered the mix. I doubt that scum would out two of themselves just by mere chance of the town having a doctor.

I'm leaning towards Spring landing the succesful protection last night even if it means that the scum passed up on the doctor. There's still a chance that the scum just didn't send in a nightkill, but with the extended night phase due to Tony's absence, i think it's unlikely that the scum couldn't get the choice in time.

I still have to do a reread of Day 1. One thing that stood out to me was Don at the end of the day yesterday. He criticized Goat and me about wanting to the end the day. He was a very large advocate of continuing discussion because it is always helpful, but then he adds nothing the rest of the day. I know he posted in several other games as well which is why it sticks out to me. I'm not a huge fan of these meta type of arguments. I just felt Don tried to look Pro-town by being the "champion" of continuing discussion perhaps to make up for not being on the Budja scum wagon.

I'm gonna start my reread a little later, then I'll see who sticks out.
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Post Post #378 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 9:50 am

Post by Deuxieme Octopus »

Vote: Springlullaby


I don't buy Goat's refutation of Spolium's "Option 3." Of course it's risky because the presence of a real Doc who could counterclaim both Budja and Springlullaby would ruin the entire thing, but who's to say that the scum didn't go into the game with this plan in mind? It's not that difficult for me to entertain the possibility that they said to each other "Hey, let's try this Doc gambit. If the real Doc shows up, we're screwed, but let's just go for it." If I was scum, I would probably agree to do it (although I doubt I'd think of it myself.) GoatRevolt says that it's a highly complicated gambit, but to me it seems really really simple. Very risky, yes, but complicated, not at all.

I say we just bump off Spring and get some confirmation one way or the other. We (the town) are ahead in the count right now. We have some room to maneuver.

I am still curious who Spring will claim to have protected. It could be true of course, and if we lynch Spring and he comes up Doc, that Night 1 protection target would basically be confirmed town in my eyes ( know there are still extremely rare circumstances that could be false, but for all intents and purposes...)

What say you!?
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Post Post #379 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 11:52 am

Post by TonyMontana »

Peanut butter jelly with a baseballbat Vote Count


Yo-ho Yo-ho, and a bottle of rum
Fee Fi Fo Fum, sniff the stench of scum
Laying crumbs, while acting dumb
Who will head for kingdom come

L-5
don_johnson
(1) springlullaby
L-5
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(1) goatrevolt
L-5
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(1) Deuxieme Octopus

Not Voting: (8) RedCoyote | Lynx The Antithesis | Spolium | millar13 | Jebus | don_johnson | fhqwhgads | Plonky

With 11 people alive, it takes
6 votes to lynch

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Post Post #380 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 12:03 pm

Post by Lynx The Antithesis »

I don't buy that scum would take such a gamble. Especially when it risks two scum. I think it would be a terrible chance and backfire to the extreme if there was a doc. Keeping in mind Spring's earlier gambit, I don't think a Spring/Budja would take another huge chance with this as well. The fact that Spring countered so quickly is also telling to me. I'd think scum would wait a little while to see if the real doc would counterclaim before throwing their own fake counterclaim in there.
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Post Post #381 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 12:06 pm

Post by Goatrevolt »

Deuxieme Octopus wrote:who's to say that the scum didn't go into the game with this plan in mind?
Sample pre-game discussion:

Budja: Hey, I've got this great idea. I'm going to act really scummy, and you're going to lurk hard.
Spring: I like where your head is at. But what would we stand to gain from doing this.
Budja: Ah yes, that is where my diabolical plot comes to fruition. The town, seeing me act scummy, will attack me for acting scummy.
Spring: Your skills at logical deduction are truly staggering. When this comes to pass, what then?
Budja: That is the great part. Then I will claim to be the doctor.
Spring: But if you claim to be the doctor, it might cause them to unvote you. That seems unproductive.
Budja: Not if you counterclaim me!
Spring: Wow! Good thinking.
Budja: Yes, don't you see. You'll throw me, a mafia roleblocker, away for small personal gain, and there is even a chance a real townie doc counterclaims us both, effectively screwing us over for the entire game.
Spring: High risk, low reward. The town will never expect it. Let's do this.
Scum3: Excellent suggestions all around. May I also propose I attempt to bus Spring day 2? If Spring looks town for counterclaiming scum in a doctor claim, then I will look
extra
town for busing such a town-looking player. I will skate unscathed to victory!
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Post Post #382 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 12:30 pm

Post by Lynx The Antithesis »

haha
If you got it flaunt it.
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Post Post #383 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 12:45 pm

Post by Spolium »

Deuxieme Octopus wrote:I say we just bump off Spring and get some confirmation one way or the other.
Are you serious?
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Post Post #384 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 12:55 pm

Post by springlullaby »

If you think I am scum, vote me.

In meantime be assured that I will not lift a single finger to defend against crappy accusation. Not that I can't. I just won't. They pisses me off.

I am pondering whether to reveal who I protected as of for now. Maybe a later, if I feel like it.
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Post Post #385 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 1:40 pm

Post by Jebus »

I didn't say RC and Spolium hadn't pinged my scumdar at all, I said that they hadn't pinged my scumdar much since my first re-read.

I voted for RC because even though he hadn't done anything noticeably scummy since my first re-read, I still wanted to look into it more.
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Spolium 373 wrote:Who did [spring] protect, and why?
The billion dollar question.
Fixed.


As for the Spring as scum, making a No Kill - I can see how this would work, but I'm content leaving Spring around for now, I think what we've got on Spring is very inconclusive.
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Post Post #386 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 1:43 pm

Post by Spolium »

For the record, I'm not trying to say I have a strong suspicion of Spring (at least, certainly not compared to my suspicions of others). The "option 3" thing jumped out at me when I was reading her first D2 post, as a result of the possible links I had identified while looking over your last posts of D1.

When Goat questioned what I said I related those points, but perhaps I should have clarified that I am for the most part satisfied with her claim.
Spring wrote:I am pondering whether to reveal who I protected as of for now. Maybe a later, if I feel like it.
In your own time, I guess. Is teasing the town with your protection target the new lurking?
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Post Post #387 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 1:50 pm

Post by springlullaby »

Testing the waters much?
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Post Post #388 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 2:03 pm

Post by Deuxieme Octopus »

C'mon guys let's just do it.
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Post Post #389 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 2:16 pm

Post by Jebus »

Deuxieme Octopus wrote:C'mon guys let's just do it.
Slow down there.
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Post Post #390 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 2:38 pm

Post by Spolium »

Spring wrote:Testing the waters much?
I'm pointing out potentially suspicious behaviour, and where I see it.

If you're going to say something then just come out and say it.
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Post Post #391 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 8:33 pm

Post by RedCoyote »

Spolium 373 wrote:- refusal to concede that he was defending Spring
I still refuse to concede that. A townie having an opinion on another player does not necessarily have to always mean a defensive/offensive position. My intentions were clear, I thought spring seemed more likely town than other candidates, but, based on policy, I would accept her lynch.

If that's defending someone, that's an awfully milky defense (pun intended).
Spolium 373 wrote:- criticism of WIFOM while citing WIFOM as the basis of his "entire point" concerning Spring
I've come to read this as more of a "gotcha" point than anything. fhq and Goat made a WIFOM that I happened to be on the opposite side of. Since all we can do is speculate about spring's infamous post and whether or not it is genuine, it makes sense that every argument based on it will necessarily be WIFOMy. I will attack the arguments as such, regardless as to whether what I think is just as WIFOMy... if anything they should cancel themselves out and render the whole "genuine versus ingenuine" thing completely null.

This ties in heavily to point one, that is, I was a spring defender. I flatly disagree with that premise based primarily on the fact that I made it clear my support, although not preferably so, of a spring lynch.
Spolium 376 wrote:However unlikely, I see it as a viable option, and hardly a complicated one. The only real problem was the one you mentioned - that scum could not be sure that there was a doc in the town. Regardless, the following points are of concern to me:

- In #360, Spring chastises Lynx for suggesting that Budja's claim was bold, and declares suspicion of him. It's like she was trying to draw attention away from any focus on Budja's claim (and by extension the potential implications of her counter-claim).

- The deadline was two days away. Why counter-claim when she did? Budja was the prime candidate for a lynch anyway, so why put herself at risk of being NKed when it could have been avoided?

- Budja's "good luck scumbuddy" post stands out for it's "at least I got you the Doc" comment. In fact, the brief exchange between him and Spring has the faintest hint of a last-minute distancing attempt.
Spolium 386 wrote:For the record, I'm not trying to say I have a strong suspicion of Spring (at least, certainly not compared to my suspicions of others). The "option 3" thing jumped out at me when I was reading her first D2 post, as a result of the possible links I had identified while looking over your last posts of D1.
Does DO have what you would call a good point (post 378)? Do you think Goat being too dismissive of this proposal (post 374/381)?

---
Lynx 377 wrote:I'm leaning towards Spring landing the succesful protection last night even if it means that the scum passed up on the doctor. There's still a chance that the scum just didn't send in a nightkill, but with the extended night phase due to Tony's absence, i think it's unlikely that the scum couldn't get the choice in time.
It should come as little surprise that, at the moment, I'm in agreement with this as well.

Like I asked Spolium, what do you think of DO's interpretation? Goat's response?

---

Post 381 is both lulz and thought-provoking. DO is pushing his chips hard and fast on the peculiar no kill/doc save/whatever last night,
DO 378 wrote:I say we just bump off Spring and get some confirmation one way or the other. We (the town) are ahead in the count right now. We have some room to maneuver.
and he means business...
DO 388 wrote:C'mon guys let's just do it.
Do what? Lynch spring?

I don't know... maybe it would be helpful to hear from everyone in town first? That's just me.

Plonky, fhq, millar...
reactions please.

---

Based primarily on yesterday's attempt to actively hijack the lynch before Budja's confession, I'll
vote: don_johnson
. When I figure out if his motives were genuine or not (in other words, I'm certainly not sure one way or the other), I'll be sure to adjust my vote accordingly, but, in the meantime, this is where my vote will be.
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Post Post #392 (ISO) » Mon Mar 02, 2009 10:17 pm

Post by fhqwhgads »

Spolium wrote:Option 3: you are scum, there is no doctor and you orchestrated the doc claim/counter claim and the subsequent no kill to throw people off the scent.
I find this highly unlikely. I'd much rather suspect that scum decided to leave the doc alive, as seeing spring already had quite a large body of suspicion on her, hoping town would bite. I think either spring's protect worked, or scum deliberately didn't kill to make spring thing her protect worked? (Don't know what would be gained by the last case though)
Lynx wrote:I just felt Don tried to look Pro-town by being the "champion" of continuing discussion perhaps to make up for not being on the Budja scum wagon.
Excellent point.
DO wrote:What say you!?
Really? A policy lynch? In the position town is now?
FOS: Deuxieme Octopus

Lynx wrote:
The fact that Spring countered so quickly is also telling to me. I'd think scum would wait a little while to see if the real doc would counterclaim before throwing their own fake counterclaim in there.
QFT
RC wrote:I still refuse to concede that. A townie having an opinion on another player does not necessarily have to always mean a defensive/offensive position. My intentions were clear, I thought spring seemed more likely town than other candidates, but, based on policy, I would accept her lynch.
If you're being sincere, I think you are making a mistake. Not worrying about looking scummy is one thing, but nitpicking on definitions of something to make it seem more town is another.
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Post Post #393 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2009 12:30 am

Post by Spolium »

RC wrote:Does DO have what you would call a good point (post 378)?
Assuming you mean his's point about lynching Spring, I do not think it is a good idea. The position town is in at the moment might appear favourable but ultimately the lack of NK has denied us information, and popping off
anyone
(much less a claimed doc) "just for confirmation" is counterproductive and does the scum all kinds of favours. It's a wasted lynch.
RC wrote:Do you think Goat being too dismissive of this proposal (post 374/381)?
I'm working under the assumption that you mean the general proposal of the double doc claim business, as opposed to DO's Spring lynch proposal.

I disagree with Goat in that I don't think that it would be a complicated strategy and I'm not entirely convinced that scum would avoid doing so altogether, but I can't deny that it would be very risky and most likely did not happen. Even if it did, there's no strong evidence for it; the case would be a dead-end until further information is available.

I also disagree with the comment in 374 about resistance to confirming innocents being scummy. I'm not sure how this is the case - surely a degree of scepticism is vital when it comes to claims?

I find the presence of "scum3" in Goat's "sample" pro-game dialogue noteworthy - I get that it's supposed to be satirical, but is it actually likely for there to be a third scum?

-----------

Incidently. what does everyone think of millar13's "
If i said i was mafia and wanted you all dead...what would you do to me?
" from the end of D1? There's been no mention of it so far, but it seems pretty relevant. The only context in which the comment makes sense to me is that he's scum and can't be bothered to play the game, which could explain the lack of nightkill (however, I'm not sure if there are roles common to mini normals which benefit from an attempted lynch, so if anyone can clarify it'd be appreciated).
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Post Post #394 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2009 2:09 am

Post by Goatrevolt »

springlullaby wrote:In meantime be assured that I will not lift a single finger to defend against crappy accusation. Not that I can't. I just won't. They pisses me off.
This is dumb. If they are such crappy accusations, then you should be able to very easily dispel them with minimal effort. Rather than take the time to state that you are going to refuse to defend yourself you could have simply done so. Is there a point to this, or are you just going out of your way to make a fuss?

-------
Jebus wrote:I didn't say RC and Spolium hadn't pinged my scumdar at all, I said that they hadn't pinged my scumdar much since my first re-read
This is the quote:
Jebus wrote:Coyote hasn't pinged my scumdar
thus far
, same for Spolium.
Does "thus far" not mean what I think it does?

--------
RedCoyote wrote:
Spolium 373 wrote:- refusal to concede that he was defending Spring
I still refuse to concede that. A townie having an opinion on another player does not necessarily have to always mean a defensive/offensive position. My intentions were clear, I thought spring seemed more likely town than other candidates, but, based on policy, I would accept her lynch.

If that's defending someone, that's an awfully milky defense (pun intended)
Um...no. Your defense of spring wasn't milky at all. Your stance on her was. If saying the attacks on spring are bad, and then throwing suspicion on the people making the attacks isn't a defense of spring, then please explain what would constitute a defense.

I'm totally lost when it comes to the "he hated on my WIFOM but used a WIFOMy defense himself" argument. I highly doubt either situation is actually WIFOM but I'd like to hear a summary of this nonetheless.

-----------
Spolium wrote:I disagree with Goat in that I don't think that it would be a complicated strategy and I'm not entirely convinced that scum would avoid doing so altogether, but I can't deny that it would be very risky and most likely did not happen. Even if it did, there's no strong evidence for it; the case would be a dead-end until further information is available.
Complicated may not have been the right word. I wasn't trying to say that the plan was somehow difficult to wrap your mind around, but rather than it was a convoluted scenario to accomplish a simple goal. I meant that it was an extremely roundabout and risky play for minimal reward. The reward in this case being an attempt to confirm a player by handing the noose to another. Occam's razor is a good way to describe it. Which is more likely, Spring is the doc, or this convoluted "you claim doc, and I'll counterclaim it" scenario?
Spolium wrote:I also disagree with the comment in 374 about resistance to confirming innocents being scummy. I'm not sure how this is the case - surely a degree of scepticism is vital when it comes to claims?
There's a difference between "a degree of skepticism" and what you did. The last part of your post 373 reads exactly like you believe Option 3 to be the truth, right down to the part where you ask her for her target and reasoning. Since then, you've been wishy-washy on it, eventually settling to Spring not a top suspect but you're still suspicious.
Spolium wrote:I find the presence of "scum3" in Goat's "sample" pro-game dialogue noteworthy - I get that it's supposed to be satirical, but is it actually likely for there to be a third scum?
I'm guessing you're referring to the Budja "good luck to my scumbuddy" post, suggesting a 2-man team based on the singular word choice? I'm not putting much weight in it. I think it would have been a valid consideration if we had seen two night kills or something last night, suggesting multiple scum groups, but the lack of any would suggest a singular killing faction.

When you say it was noteworthy, what are you implying?

Here's a question for you. You are under the impression of a 2 man scum team. Wouldn't a 2 man scum team make it less likely that spring as scum would throw away Budja like that?
Spolium wrote:Incidently. what does everyone think of millar13's "
If i said i was mafia and wanted you all dead...what would you do to me?
" from the end of D1? There's been no mention of it so far, but it seems pretty relevant. The only context in which the comment makes sense to me is that he's scum and can't be bothered to play the game, which could explain the lack of nightkill (however, I'm not sure if there are roles common to mini normals which benefit from an attempted lynch, so if anyone can clarify it'd be appreciated).
I have no clue how to read that post at all. Your speculation is plausible under the 2 man scum team idea, but not really something I would throw any weight behind for a variety of reasons.

Millar: What was the point of that question?
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Post Post #395 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2009 3:28 am

Post by don_johnson »

RC wrote:Based primarily on yesterday's attempt to actively hijack the lynch before Budja's confession, I'll vote: don_johnson
do you mind explaining this? exactly where and what was my attempt at "hi-jacking" the lynch?

a) lynching SL is a stupid idea. she is an uncounterclaimed doc.

b) whoever she protected is by no means clear of suspicion, so knowing who it was is not going to be imperative to our current discussion.

vote: D.Octopus
for lack of better place to put my vote just yet. DO is suggesting we sac an uncounterclaimed doc who may have had a successful protection last night. i don't see the benefit there.
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Post Post #396 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2009 4:27 am

Post by Spolium »

Goat wrote:Complicated may not have been the right word. I wasn't trying to say that the plan was somehow difficult to wrap your mind around, but rather than it was a convoluted scenario to accomplish a simple goal. I meant that it was an extremely roundabout and risky play for minimal reward. The reward in this case being an attempt to confirm a player by handing the noose to another. Occam's razor is a good way to describe it. Which is more likely, Spring is the doc, or this convoluted "you claim doc, and I'll counterclaim it" scenario?
I believe I've already noted both that I am currently satisfied with the claim and that I don't consider the double doc claim scenario to be overly likely.
Goat wrote:There's a difference between "a degree of skepticism" and what you did. The last part of your post 373 reads exactly like you believe Option 3 to be the truth, right down to the part where you ask her for her target and reasoning. Since then, you've been wishy-washy on it, eventually settling to Spring not a top suspect but you're still suspicious.
I can see how you read 373 to mean that and will admit I could've worded my thoughts more appropriately.

My request for her target and reasoning is rooted in a desire to glean some information following the lack of nightkill. Maybe this isn't the case, or her reasons for voting [whoever] amount to "I think they are the cop" or something else it would be wise to withold. I'd like to think that there's something that can be done with that information though.
Goat wrote:
Spolium wrote:I find the presence of "scum3" in Goat's "sample" pro-game dialogue noteworthy - I get that it's supposed to be satirical, but is it actually likely for there to be a third scum?
I'm guessing you're referring to the Budja "good luck to my scumbuddy" post, suggesting a 2-man team based on the singular word choice? I'm not putting much weight in it. I think it would have been a valid consideration if we had seen two night kills or something last night, suggesting multiple scum groups, but the lack of any would suggest a singular killing faction.

When you say it was noteworthy, what are you implying?
I'm not implying anything - the mention of a third scum just stands out to me. It could suggest that you consider it likely for there to be a third scum, or perhaps you have special information which leads you to believe it. Maybe you just threw it in there to imply that anyone casting suspicion on Spring could be a third scum, or maybe you were trying to highlight what you saw to be a ridiculous situation.

As it stands I can only speculate, but if you have any further comment on it I'm all ears.
Goat wrote:Here's a question for you. You are under the impression of a 2 man scum team. Wouldn't a 2 man scum team make it less likely that spring as scum would throw away Budja like that?
I don't know how Spring plays as scum so I can't really comment. I see what you're getting at though, and will note once again that I don't consider the pairing to be very likely.
Goat wrote:
Spolium wrote:Incidently. what does everyone think of millar13's "
If i said i was mafia and wanted you all dead...what would you do to me?
" from the end of D1? There's been no mention of it so far, but it seems pretty relevant. The only context in which the comment makes sense to me is that he's scum and can't be bothered to play the game, which could explain the lack of nightkill (however, I'm not sure if there are roles common to mini normals which benefit from an attempted lynch, so if anyone can clarify it'd be appreciated).
I have no clue how to read that post at all. Your speculation is plausible under the 2 man scum team idea, but not really something I would throw any weight behind for a variety of reasons.
Can you elaborate on these reasons?

I want to know more about the liklihood that millar13 stands to benefit from being lynched. I recall someone dismissing a jester role as a likely possibility in this game, but what about lynchproof?
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Post Post #397 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2009 5:52 am

Post by Goatrevolt »

Spolium wrote:I'm not implying anything - the mention of a third scum just stands out to me. It could suggest that you consider it likely for there to be a third scum, or perhaps you have special information which leads you to believe it. Maybe you just threw it in there to imply that anyone casting suspicion on Spring could be a third scum, or maybe you were trying to highlight what you saw to be a ridiculous situation.

As it stands I can only speculate, but if you have any further comment on it I'm all ears.
I'm not implying that anyone casting suspicion on Spring is the mysterious scum3, because I don't actually believe the premise of my satire.

The reason I put in that scum3 bit was to finish my little story with added hyperbole to highlight the absurdity of the situation. In fact, I do believe that it is more likely that there are 3 scum, rather than two, but I didn't add in the 3rd scum bit specifically to make that point. I don't have any special information to make this claim, I'm basing it entirely on what I would guess is the most likely setup.
Spolium wrote:
Goat wrote:
Spolium wrote:Incidently. what does everyone think of millar13's "
If i said i was mafia and wanted you all dead...what would you do to me?
" from the end of D1? There's been no mention of it so far, but it seems pretty relevant. The only context in which the comment makes sense to me is that he's scum and can't be bothered to play the game, which could explain the lack of nightkill (however, I'm not sure if there are roles common to mini normals which benefit from an attempted lynch, so if anyone can clarify it'd be appreciated).
I have no clue how to read that post at all. Your speculation is plausible under the 2 man scum team idea, but not really something I would throw any weight behind for a variety of reasons.
Can you elaborate on these reasons?
Sure. First of all, your speculation that millar is scum based on the lack of a nightkill relies on the theory that there are only two scum, i.e. he gave up yesterday and just didn't bother to submit a night kill. If there is a scum group larger than 2 players, then the other scum could have just submitted the kill, even if millar gave up. Since we don't have any information on how many scum there are, this point is based on ungrounded speculation.

Secondly, the lack of a nightkill could be explained by other reasons as well, such as Spring making a successful protect, or the scum deliberately choosing not to kill, or another role somehow preventing it, etc. There's no evidence to support Millar as scum choosing not to make a night kill is any more likely than the above.

So basically, your speculation here is a possibility, but it's not something I would put any weight behind because it's entirely speculation without evidence with a lot of other possible explanations.
Spolium wrote:I want to know more about the liklihood that millar13 stands to benefit from being lynched. I recall someone dismissing a jester role as a likely possibility in this game, but what about lynchproof?
I dismissed jester as a possibility. I'll also dismiss lynchproof. Neither or those would be normal roles by any stretch, and are highly unlikely to appear in this game.

There are a few roles that activate upon being lynched or killed that I could possibly see in a normal game, such as the role that gets to vig a player when lynched, or the role that kills the person who hammers. Those roles are somewhat more likely than jester/lynchproof, but are still not very likely of appearing in a mini normal.

All in all, the chance that millar stands to gain from being lynched is pretty much null. It should not be a deterring factor from lynching him or anyone else.
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Post Post #398 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2009 11:23 am

Post by Jebus »

My view on the Spring as the doc: it could be many things.

1> Spring is the doc, and scum did a no-kill to make it look suspicious. I think this is probably not the way this would have gone. Scum forfeit one kill to make one person who is a town role that is slightly scummier than normal have the chance of possibly being mislynched.

2> Spring is scum, and scum did a no-kill to help strengthen Spring's claim. Again, I don't see why this would be a good idea, they forfeit a kill to possibly save the scumbuddy from a lynch. Again, possible is not good odds for them, and wasting the kill only to have a scumbuddy (possibly) lynched, or at least have heavy suspicion, doesn't make too much sense.

3> Spring is the doc, and successfully protected the kill. This makes sense because Spring is still ripe for a mislynch, possibly, and scum would have still gotten a kill, in addition to the possible mislynch.

4> Spring is neither the doc or scum, and was protected by the real doc. I find this one unlikely, but it could also explain it. Why wouldn't scum get rid of a doctor if they had the chance?

5> Spring is neither the doc or scum, and scum no-killed. Same as option 1, pretty much.

6> Spring is neither the doc or scum, and the real doc made a successful kill. Odd enough :?

I'm thinking it's number three, though I can see how one and four would work out.
Goatrevolt wrote:
springlullaby wrote:
Jebus wrote:I didn't say RC and Spolium hadn't pinged my scumdar at all, I said that they hadn't pinged my scumdar much since my first re-read
This is the quote:
Jebus wrote:Coyote hasn't pinged my scumdar
thus far
, same for Spolium.
Does "thus far" not mean what I think it does?
Actually, that was just my English acting up. I meant "recently" instead of "thus far", you get it. And really, that still holds true.
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Post Post #399 (ISO) » Tue Mar 03, 2009 11:24 am

Post by Jebus »

Meh, quote tags screwing me up. That was goat who said that, not spring.
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