Mini 745 - Moving Day Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[Zer0ph34r]

Again Porkens, how was I ignorant in that post? And, got a reason for the vote? I thought it was weird how you had negative thoughts about torvarish and then voted for him, unvoted and voted for me, despite the EBWOP.

Top of page 20 vote count:

Zer0ph34r 1 (Porkens)
ac1983fan 1 (Herodotus)

Not voting: Jazzmyn, Erratus Apathos, Sotty7, Tovarish, Zer0ph34r, don_johnson, ac1983fan

With 9 still packing it takes 5 to lynch.

Note: this vote count should be accurate as of this post.

Prods: Erratus Apathos

Looking for a replacement for Tovarish

[ac1983fan]

After consideration, I don't believe acfan's claim at this time.

vote: acfan

Aside from the numerous suspicions already discussed about acfan, there are some other D1 issues.
In multiple posts on day 1 (viewtopic.php?p=1509480#1509480 last sentence, viewtopic.php?p=1523852#1523852 third paragraph, and also via his frequent references to and attitude about being cautious about votes,) acfan breadcrumbed that he was a cop.

What the hell are you talking about? I didn't breadcrumb anything. Show me the post where I did it. And anyway, as an SK, I would never claim anything but vanilla, SK, or Vig.

Also, the fact that an innocent (Q21) who suspected him was killed by the mafia is a bit suspicious (though on its own, it would not have been a big enough factor that he wouldn't have wanted to kill Q21.) Regardless of the WIFOM, acfan definitely had a reason to want to kill Q21 last night.

Maybe somebody else q21 was suspicious of was mafia. IDK their motivations.

Acfan knew he was a likely lynch, but also that the town would not want to lynch the SK.

No, I did not think of either of those things, until your posts have indicated them.

However, in the unlikely event that acfan's claim is not countered by either the real SK or a mafia player (in which case we start evaluating whom to believe, with acfan at a disadvantage) I will unvote. Acfan, if your claim is true and it stands up against the likely coming counterclaim, you will be in a decent position. If someone else had claimed SK, things might be different, but you are the player who had the most to gain from fake-claiming SK as a mafia member. We will decide whether to believe you when the counterclaim comes.

I am not fakeclaiming SK. I was one of the few people who suspected dejkha D1, I had motivation to kill him. I had already decided if we didn't lynch scum D1, I was going to go after who I thought was mafia to try and keep the game balanced.

But yeah, I never breadcrumbed cop, I wouldn't even know how to really breadcrumb. Please show me where you think I did this.

[Porkens]

But yeah, I never breadcrumbed cop, I wouldn't even know how to really breadcrumb. Please show me where you think I did this.

He did,

in the words you quoted

, show you the suspected breadcrumbs.

Again Porkens, how was I ignorant in that post? And, got a reason for the vote? I thought it was weird how you had negative thoughts about torvarish and then voted for him, unvoted and voted for me, despite the EBWOP.

In that post, you asked "when did I use aim slang or bad spelling?" But no one had accused you of doing either.

Because you're one of

the most

anti town players in this game.

[Porkens]

EBWOP:

unvote, vote AC

[Porkens]

DOUBLE EBWOP: Even if you really

are

the SK, I am personally FINE with the sub-optimal lynch. I was just being quiet about Herod's silly plan because, shit, he was aiming to out 2 scum.

[ac1983fan]

Sorry, didn't see the links at first....

I'm keeping my vote where it is because I feel comfortable with it, and there's nobody else I'd feel comfortable voting. I don't find anyone scummy enough to present an alternative,...

It's not as if you auto-lose the game if you're wrong about suspecting another player on day 1.

A police officer wouldn't arrest somebody on one little bit of evidence, unless it was pretty damning evidence. If I find somebody a little suspicious, I'm not quite willing to vote for them.

Please tell me this isn't what you meant by breadcrumbing. I was making a metaphor/analogy. That was the best metaphor I could think of. Not breadcrumbing, you're reading waaay to much into that post.

So lynching somebody who's not contributing but likely a townie is far better than some of the other possibilities, like lynching the cop or doc.

Again, I hope this wasn't the part you considered breadcrumbing. An SK trying to claim cop is more stupid than a mafia trying to claim cop.

I was planning on a vig claim if I was going to be lynched, but obviously there was enough flavor to figure it out.

[ac1983fan]

DOUBLE EBWOP: Even if you really

are

the SK, I am personally FINE with the sub-optimal lynch. I was just being quiet about Herod's silly plan because, shit, he was aiming to out 2 scum.

So you'd rather put yourself at lylo than try to gain an advantage over the mafia?

[Herodotus]

In multiple posts on day 1 (viewtopic.php?p=1509480#1509480 last sentence, viewtopic.php?p=1523852#1523852 third paragraph, and also via his frequent references to and attitude about being cautious about votes,) acfan breadcrumbed that he was a cop.

What the hell are you talking about? I didn't breadcrumb anything. Show me the post where I did it.

I just listed two posts, and even pointed out the specific sentences.

So lynching somebody who's not contributing but likely a townie is far better than some of the other possibilities, like lynching the cop or doc.

^ Said when you were the next most likely candidate.

A police officer wouldn't arrest somebody on one little bit of evidence, unless it was pretty damning evidence. If I find somebody a little suspicious, I'm not quite willing to vote for them.

^"A police officer wouldn't do ____, so I'm not going to do ____."

And anyway, as an SK, I would never claim anything but vanilla, SK, or Vig.

You are damning yourself here. This does not support your claim, because there is evidence (whether it it correct or not) that you were planning to claim cop. By your own meta-claim, that would dispute your SK-claim. You'd be better off shutting up until we know who is going to counter your claim, then choosing your arguments based on which player that was.

Maybe somebody else q21 was suspicious of was mafia. IDK their motivations.

He had other suspicions, but other than you and Dejkha, they were pretty mild.

DOUBLE EBWOP: Even if you really

are

the SK, I am personally FINE with the sub-optimal lynch. I was just being quiet about Herod's silly plan because, shit, he was aiming to out 2 scum.

I tentatively disagree. Right now, I don't think we should lynch acfan until/unless we are pretty confident he is mafia, and not the SK. I would be

very

suspicious of anyone else who votes acfan after you right now.

[ac1983fan]

In multiple posts on day 1 (viewtopic.php?p=1509480#1509480 last sentence, viewtopic.php?p=1523852#1523852 third paragraph, and also via his frequent references to and attitude about being cautious about votes,) acfan breadcrumbed that he was a cop.

What the hell are you talking about? I didn't breadcrumb anything. Show me the post where I did it.

I just listed two posts, and even pointed out the specific sentences.

Sorry, I didn't notice those... I'm dumb like that sometimes.

So lynching somebody who's not contributing but likely a townie is far better than some of the other possibilities, like lynching the cop or doc.

^ Said when you were the next most likely candidate.

Again, I was just stating facts. It wasn't intended to be breadcrumbing, your interpretation of it is just... wrong.

A police officer wouldn't arrest somebody on one little bit of evidence, unless it was pretty damning evidence. If I find somebody a little suspicious, I'm not quite willing to vote for them.

^"A police officer wouldn't do ____, so I'm not going to do ____."

No, it was an analogy. I was explaining the thinking behind my actions. It was never intended to make you think I was the cop.

And anyway, as an SK, I would never claim anything but vanilla, SK, or Vig.

You are damning yourself here. This does not support your claim, because there is evidence (whether it it correct or not) that you were planning to claim cop. By your own meta-claim, that would dispute your SK-claim. You'd be better off shutting up until we know who is going to counter your claim, then choosing your arguments based on which player that was.

I'm going to respond to anything I feel the need to. You believe I am mafia, you are wrong.

[Herodotus]

Acfan, you seem to misunderstand what I mean about breadcrumbing. It's not a roleclaim; it's not "intended to make everyone think you are (role.)" It's generally intended as something to either point to later in support of an actual claim or inform a townie or two while hoping not to tip off the scum. The fact that I thought you

overdid

it means you definitely did it, whether you meant to or not. And I also think it's part of what made Q21 suspicious of you.

Regardless, your defense is incredibly premature. We will be better able to evaluate whether your claim is true once we know who is countering it, and I won't support your lynch until they do. I guess I have to

unvote

until then. But

fos: acfan

obviously.

[Porkens]

So you'd rather put yourself at lylo than try to gain an advantage over the mafia?

I tentatively disagree. Right now, I don't think we should lynch acfan until/unless we are pretty confident he is mafia, and not the SK. I would be very suspicious of anyone else who votes acfan after you right now.

I'd

rather

not give control of the game to the SK.

(the following examples show the morning after this lynch. The left column represents what would happen if the SK killed a townie tonight)

Best case scenario; we lynch scum

A)---or---B)
maf------maf
maf------sk
sk--------town
town----town
town----town
town----town

In A, the SK decides who wins, and has a small chance to win himself. In B, he has

thrown the game away

.

Worst case; we lynch town

C)---or---A)
maf-----maf
maf-----maf
maf-----sk
sk-------town
town---town
town---town

A we already covered. In C, the SK's chances to win for himself are much, much better, and the town's is almost nill.

So, as you can see, it's

always

in the best interest for the SK to kill a townie tonight.

So yes, I prefer LYLO to this myriad of ways to lose based on the SK's whim.


(I know I haven't mentioned the possibility of maf and SK both targeting the same person; I'm counting that as a negligible chance.)
[/table]

[don_johnson]

i am here and will catch up before work tonight.

[Jazzmyn]

*note: some posts are snipped for brevity to avoid overly lengthy quote posts.

If one was to assume that "scum kill"="mafia kill", then my question would be incredibly out-of-place. And so would your answer.

Thanks for the clarification. That makes the exchange make sense to me now. I thought that 'scum' referred to mafia and 'SK' referred to serial killer.

Now, to continue from where I left off. Again, I am just going to address posts in order and apologize for any undue repetition. On the weekend, I should have time to post more of an overall summary/analysis rather than just responding to posts in order like this.

A point of strategy:
...

The SK should claim now

(assuming we are right that there is an SK.)
...
Also, knowing that you are the SK will help us find the mafia.

^^This is an excellent post and it seems like a good strategy to me.

the first question makes some sense. however, i doubt that someone would play several games poorly just to establish meta for when they are scum.

Perhaps, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility out of hand. It wouldn't be all that different from killa7, who deliberately established a meta of refusing to participate in the games he signs up for on Day 1, which he uses to insulate himself from suspicion even when he is scum because "that's the way he rolls".

This feels like such a trap, but it also makes logical sense.

Claim - Serial Killer

Annnd, just like that, the strategy pays off. Wait, that seemed kind of quick.

Assuming there is three mafia (the most likely amount), lynching me today would be a mistake for the town

Yes, agreed (If the claim is true).

And my number one suspect is either herodotus or Jazmyn. Have people forgot about her? She seems to be playing under the radar or something. She, to my memory has never actually been involved with any discussion, even I have been in at least a little, but she never posts anything, especially involving her thoughts.

This is simply untrue. You should try reading the thread instead of relying upon your "memory" since it seems apparent that your memory is faulty.

TBH, I was half-expecting Jazmyn to come out of left field with a SK (Serial Killer) claim.

Really? Well, sorry to have to disappoint then but no, I am not a SK. (I have to admit that I would love to get an SK role some time, but I haven't to date and have only played in one completed game so far where there was a SK.)

After consideration, I don't believe acfan's claim at this time
...
acfan breadcrumbed that he was a cop. (I think this may be the real reason why Q21 believed him to be scum.) I almost called him out for soft-claiming, but figured if no one else was saying anything about it, he was probably really the cop and possibly the mafia wouldn't notice. (This was also the reason I defended him, and the reason I was surprised that Q21 was a cop - I was thinking ac was a cop.) But since a cop is dead, people would notice his fake-breadcrumbing while rereading day 1, and his plan to fake claim cop was severely weakened.
...
Also, the fact that an innocent (Q21) who suspected him was killed by the mafia is a bit suspicious (though on its own, it would not have been a big enough factor that he wouldn't have wanted to kill Q21.) Regardless of the WIFOM, acfan definitely had a reason to want to kill Q21 last night.

Acfan knew he was a likely lynch, but also that the town would not want to lynch the SK. The best way for acfan to make sure he would not be lynched is to claim a role that (a) had a reason to falsely breadcrumb cop and (b) was somewhat helpful to the town.

For these reasons, I think it is very possible that he is a mafia member lying about being the SK.

Oh, man. I noticed the second post you cited of Acfan's cop references on Day 1 and made a note of it as a possible breadcrumb, but I missed the first one.

What the hell are you talking about? I didn't breadcrumb anything. Show me the post where I did it. And anyway, as an SK, I would never claim anything but vanilla, SK, or Vig.
...
I am not fakeclaiming SK. I was one of the few people who suspected dejkha D1, I had motivation to kill him. I had already decided if we didn't lynch scum D1, I was going to go after who I thought was mafia to try and keep the game balanced.
But yeah, I never breadcrumbed cop, I wouldn't even know how to really breadcrumb. Please show me where you think I did this.

The posts are linked in Herod's post to which you replied. They do look like breadcrumbs, although it is also possible that they were innocent remarks that just happen to look like breadcrumbs. But saying that as a SK, you would never claim anything but vanilla, SK, or Vig doesn't help your claim at the moment as (a) it is WIFOM, and (b) it confirms that you are fully conversant with making false role claims, which tends to negate the idea of "innocent remarks that just happen to look like breadcrumbs" noted just above.

I'm going to have to think about all of this and will probably have to re-read yet again.

I was just being quiet about Herod's silly plan because, shit, he was aiming to out 2 scum.

What was silly about Herod's plan? It seems to have worked well so far: already, it has either shown us who the SK is or it has outed one of the scum. It may end up doing even more, depending on how things play out when everyone else chimes in, whether there is a counterclaim, etc. I wouldn't dismiss it as "silly" at all.

I'd

rather

not give control of the game to the SK.
(the following examples show the morning after this lynch. The left column represents what would happen if the SK killed a townie tonight)
...
In A, the SK decides who wins, and has a small chance to win himself. In B, he has

thrown the game away

.
...
In C, the SK's chances to win for himself are much, much better, and the town's is almost nill.

You make some good points here. But we don't have to decide the lynch issue yet. It makes sense to me to let this play out further until we see what, if any, counterclaims are made and what additional information we can garner before worrying about the lynch.

Regards,
Jazz

[Jazzmyn]

Also, welcome, sotty7. Looking forward to your input.

Also,

Mod, please prod Tovarish

. He hasn't posted in 10 days.

Regards,
Jazz

I have, twice, no response so he will be replaced.

[Porkens]

What was silly about Herod's plan? It seems to have worked well so far: already, it has either shown us who the SK is or it has outed one of the scum. It may end up doing even more, depending on how things play out when everyone else chimes in, whether there is a counterclaim, etc. I wouldn't dismiss it as "silly" at all.

I wasn't trying to dismiss it at all; and in the post you quoted I gave it credit for shooting to out 2 scum. I was (and am) kinda keeping my mouth shut about MY take on the plan until others have had a chance to talk about it. To ask for the SK to claim, and to get an answer, is a profoundly silly thing in my opinion; effective or not.

[Herodotus]

@Porkens:
It's not silly, even if that isn't clear ATM. It will be much easier to explain in concrete terms later, once more players are dead and their roles are revealed.
In case it helps, the point of my plan was to reach the Nash Equilibrium of the game. Now that either the real SK or a mafia member has claimed SK, it is in the other party's best interest to counter-claim. Overall, this sequence helps the town, since it means that we gain more information (unspecific as it may be,) but the key point I'm taking advantage of is that an unchallenged claim may do serious damage to whichever side

doesn't

claim SK.
So, now we wait for the lurkers, who make up about half the living players, to get their prods...

[Sotty7]

Sorry guys I got pulled away yesterday. I only have five more pages to read then I will be up with you all.

[Erratus Apathos]

So you'd rather put yourself at lylo than try to gain an advantage over the mafia?

I tentatively disagree. Right now, I don't think we should lynch acfan until/unless we are pretty confident he is mafia, and not the SK. I would be very suspicious of anyone else who votes acfan after you right now.

I'd

rather

not give control of the game to the SK.

(the following examples show the morning after this lynch. The left column represents what would happen if the SK killed a townie tonight)

Best case scenario; we lynch scum

A)---or---B)
maf------maf
maf------sk
sk--------town
town----town
town----town
town----town

In A, the SK decides who wins, and has a small chance to win himself. In B, he has

thrown the game away

.

Worst case; we lynch town

C)---or---A)
maf-----maf
maf-----maf
maf-----sk
sk-------town
town---town
town---town

A we already covered. In C, the SK's chances to win for himself are much, much better, and the town's is almost nill.

So, as you can see, it's

always

in the best interest for the SK to kill a townie tonight.

So yes, I prefer LYLO to this myriad of ways to lose based on the SK's whim.


(I know I haven't mentioned the possibility of maf and SK both targeting the same person; I'm counting that as a negligible chance.)
[/table]

Notice how certain Porkens is that there are three mafia.

Vote: Porkens

[Sotty7]

Okay. I am not the SK, in case people were waiting/wondering about that.

I somewhat agree with Porkens at this point (apart from the being fine with a sub optimal lynch). I understand the theory and reasoning behind Hero's suggestion but I never expected the SK to just jump right up and claim. Like Jazz said, it felt pretty quick.

I think at this point we need to have all the players check in to see if we do get some kind of counterclaim and move on from there. For now I won't go into too much detail about my thoughts on that until we have had everyone chime in on the subject.

It's annoying that Tov is being replaced. He is quite high on my scum list, seeming intent to stay on the outside of major discussion. He rode Killa pretty hard (when Tov posted) but only jumped onto his wagon when others started to vote. Add onto the fact I found Ac pretty scummy on my read and Tov was content to defend him. If Ac is the SK this could easily be scum defending someone he knew not to be on his team.

Other things of note, really didn't like the hammer by Porkens. Especially considering that in the same post he seemed to want people to answer his questions. How is bringing the end to the day going to help you get any answers? Perhaps he never really wanted the answers. The timing of the hammer makes no sense to me. Plus it seemed like he didn't seem to care if Killa was town or not. I get the anti town thing, but if you are town you should be looking for scum first and foremost. However, I feel like I am beating a dead horse in this game with that, so.. Yeah.

Zero needs to post more and actually give explanations for his thoughts. Also I noticed he posted at the top of this page without even commenting on the whole SK/Scum claim thing we got going on here. That was interesting.

EA and Jazz all feel to be posting as little as possible. I understand Jazz has access issues which sucks. But I would really like more from EA. I feel like there was big portions of the game where you didn't give any or only gave a little bit of input. In particular, you only came out when people questioned you. I'd like to know what you thinks of the other players in the game.

I had coupled Don in with EA after my read though, only to check and see that he has a whole bunch of posts. The turn around on the policy lynch of Killa was surprising, but it seems I don't have a solid opinion of Don yet. I will probably look back over the thread now that I am familiar with it and change that.

Right now Hero is feeling very town like to me. Day one there was several instances that had me scratching my head. But his last few posts have eased my worries about him for now.

So this is where I am at right now. Ac and Tov are my top two. I will hold off from voting until we see where this SK claim thing takes us.

[don_johnson]

good call EA, but i believe the person who brought up the fact that tomorrow might be lylo was in fact acfan. am i wrong on this point?

the only way tomorrow could be lylo

and

acfan be sk is if there are three scum, no? i think the question we should be asking is how acfan seems so sure that there are three scum.

well?

[Erratus Apathos]

good call EA, but i believe the person who brought up the fact that tomorrow might be lylo was in fact acfan. am i wrong on this point?

the only way tomorrow could be lylo

and

acfan be sk is if there are three scum, no? i think the question we should be asking is how acfan seems so sure that there are three scum.

well?

Even though the SK doesn't know how many mafia there are, he has a very good reason to promote the idea that there's three: it makes the town rather nervous about lynching him.

[ac1983fan]

good call EA, but i believe the person who brought up the fact that tomorrow might be lylo was in fact acfan. am i wrong on this point?

the only way tomorrow could be lylo

and

acfan be sk is if there are three scum, no? i think the question we should be asking is how acfan seems so sure that there are three scum.

well?

Even though the SK doesn't know how many mafia there are, he has a very good reason to promote the idea that there's three: it makes the town rather nervous about lynching him.

I'd be pretty surprised if their weren't three mafia.

[Porkens]

Notice how certain Porkens is that there are three mafia.

Vote: Porkens

and that 'all' you have to say about the last two pages? For christ's sake.

[Erratus Apathos]

Notice how certain Porkens is that there are three mafia.

Vote: Porkens

and that 'all' you have to say about the last two pages? For christ's sake.

Sidestepping the issue.

Confirm vote

And yes, that's 'all' I have to say. From now on I won't post unless I've caught a minimum of two scum

[raider8169]

just wasting a spot so I can put the VC on the top of the next page.