Mini 771 - Mafia in Ludd: Game Over

[Green Crayons]

Patrick: In your reread, please tell me if you think this is an accurate description of Ether's play this game:

1. Ether acts like Ether-Scum.
2. Ether gets called out on it.
3. Ether goes "Oh, yeah. I guess. I'll fix that, though, don't worry."
4. Ether continues to act like Ether-Scum.

=======================

Page 30 Votecount

charter (0/5):
Ether (1/5): Incognito
Green Crayons(0/5):
Incognito (0/5):
Korts (0/5):
Patrick (0/5):
skitzer (0/5):
Xdaamno (0/5):
Yosarian2 (2/5): charter, Xdaamno

Not voting (6/9):

Ether, Green Crayons, Korts, Patrick, skitzer, Yosarian2

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
=======================

Countdown To Day 2

[Incognito]

Hmm, I get vibes for a Yos-Incognito scumteam, trying to delay Yos' lynch. I know Yos recently posted in a mafia discussion thread that stalling for time before being lynched is very useful for scum, which makes it more likely. IGMEOY.

Is this solely because I didn't immediately lend my vote to the growing Yosarian2-wagon or is your suspicion of this pairing based on anything else in the game? Please elaborate on this.

Also, what do you think of my case against Ether?

I'm scratching my head, trying to figure out what it was about OGML's role that Yos' claim would have rubbed him the wrong way.

Just to expand on this because I realize my answer may have been incomplete: From a modding perspective, Millers are typically thrown into games to "nerf" the power of the Cop by incorporating a role that appears as a "guilty" investigation into an otherwise pro-town role. This is done so that the game remains more about thinking and less about following the night game. Vigilantes or Cops are typically thrown in to games to "nerf" the power of a Gunsmith again by incorporating pro-town roles that will come up as seemingly guilty to a Gunsmith's investigation again to make the game less about investigations and more about thinking. To throw a Miller into a game that we now know had two investigative roles that can't

possibly

be "nerfed" by a Miller investigation seems rather inelegant and unlikely. This is why OGML expressed so much dislike the claim.

[Green Crayons]

Just to expand on this because I realize my answer may have been incomplete...

No, I got it. I'm not entirely thick. I was under the impression that a gunsmith was my first understanding but right before I posted the "checks players to see if they have guns" popped into my head so I threw it in there to show that I'm not entirely ignorant of the role (which is why it seems a bit disjointed with the "scratching my head"). It has just been a long while since I've played with a gunsmith.

[Incognito]

Good. I was about to retype my explanation because I thought

that

additional explanation sucked as well lol. I just always feel like my thoughts sound better in my head as opposed to when I try to translate them into text.

[Yosarian2]

Vote Yosarian2

Claimed scum yesterday. A gunsmith and a tracker? Looks like he hedged his bets wrong.

As I said yesterday, after it became obvious what OGML was hinting at, I am probably a red herring designed to mess with the town, just like when a mod puts a nurse into a setup without a doctor.

So, what; your theory is that I claimed miller without knowing if there was a cop, in a game with a creative mod who's not especally likely to put a generic cop into every single game?

Anyway, charter continues to attack me, not surprising. I'm a little disturbed by Xdaamno jumping on the wagon just based on mod-WIFOM, though, when I wasn't getting the vibe at all yesterday that he suspected me or had any problem with my claim. Reads more like "convinent scum excuse" then anything else to me.

Vote: Xdaammno

[Ether]

Can't complain. But I'm still not accepting any drinks from you after Day 1.

-~- Her voting pattern has been extremely flippant (she went from 1. me to 2. Izzy to 3. Yosarian2 to 4. Korts to 5. charter to 6. Korts again and then finally to 7. Izzy at deadline). Compare this to games where she's been town, and you'll notice the difference (she usually has a tendency to stick to her guns as town). Even her switch off Korts near deadline really bothered me as well -- I know from past games that Ether would almost certainly maintain a vote even in the face of a power role claim (she did so against a Glork jailkeeper claim in Mini 594).

Those last three switches were all based on claim stuff; the last two at the last minute. I couldn't exactly stay on Charter when his role turned out to be 100% confirmable, and no, I don't support offing a claimed martyr when there are obvious nighttime applications from it, even with a better grip than I have here. I learned my lesson on that. By 594, Glork had a guilty result on him--it's not comparable at all.

(Having said that, the deaths of two investigative roles makes a Kortslynch a lot more tempting to me. There's something else I'm thinking on this note, but I'm holding off.)

The last sentence of the fourth point is stupid because I'd voted before OGML softclaimed, and specifically hinted later that I wouldn't take other power roles into account. Admittedly, there's not much else that endears me to Yosarian's play.

I can't passionately defend myself against the middle two points--I never really took to this game. I don't know what causes that reaction, though I'm pretty sure thick familiarity is a negative, if anything.

Interestingly, my flake reflex seems to have been replaced by a put-off-posting-until-the-wee-hours-of-the-night reflex. During the summer, this change might actually be practical.

[Korts]

I don't think it was that hard to tell why I'd returned to you, and it was only about 3 days after I'd explained it.

What's your opinion of skitzer?

I have no real opinion of him at this point; his posting has been more frequent and longer than I have come to expect of him through cursory knowledge of his meta, and he's made some valid points. Other than the fact that he's making an effort this time, I don't see anything unusual or scummy.

Yo, Korts. Did you ever read that stuff you fell behind on?

No.

Re: Yos-miller vs. tracker/gunsmith, it could quite possibly be a red herring and essentially a vanilla townie with a fancy name. The likeliness of this depends on the mod's style. Has vollkan modded other games before? I looked on his wiki but there's no mention of it, and I don't have a lot of time to spare for research.

Incog's mostly meta- and speculation-based attack on Ether is intriguing, but I'll have to look into Ether's play as town before I can decide any further on this. Considering the number of players familiar with Ether's play, though, I'm interested to hear Patrick/Green Crayons/Yos' opinions on her as well.

@GC: can I assume that the quoted part in post 725 is what you think of Ether's play here?

(Having said that, the deaths of two investigative roles makes a Kortslynch a lot more tempting to me. There's something else I'm thinking on this note, but I'm holding off.)

Are you saying that I should've gambled and gone for the percieved softlcaim instead of a confirmed role's protection?

[Green Crayons]

Korts: Yup. I should have put "GC's current musings" or something.

[Incognito]

Ether, I know what you're trying to do here. You're seriously trying to get me to reveal the secret behind the AIM logs that Patrick and I have on your typical play and that's

not

gonna happen. You know as well as I do that you're scum here, so you may as well fold now.

no, I don't support offing a claimed martyr when there are obvious nighttime applications from it, even with a better grip than I have here. I learned my lesson on that.

When did you learn your lesson on this?

(Having said that, the deaths of two investigative roles makes a Kortslynch a lot more tempting to me. There's something else I'm thinking on this note, but I'm holding off.)

How long do you plan to hold off on this?

The last sentence of the fourth point is stupid because I'd voted before OGML softclaimed, and specifically hinted later that I wouldn't take other power roles into account. Admittedly, there's not much else that endears me to Yosarian's play.

Fair enough. But if you're scum like I think you are, you might have picked up on what OGML was getting at

before

he ever even softclaimed (that whole informed minority thing) especially if Yosarian2 is your fake-claiming buddy. Because of that, I think my point still has at least some truth to it and isn't stupid at all.

I can't passionately defend myself against the middle two points--I never really took to this game.

You seemed pretty into the game when we first started as you claimed that your vote on me was serious and you began gunning for my lynch. Why would that suddenly change?

I'd say fair enough to the other points you refuted but the main issues I have with your play still stand -- I just don't see that strong scum hunting prowess and that "go for the kill" type of attitude that I'm used to seeing from you. You began well with your attack against me but then you just fizzled, and I'm not gonna let you get away with this.

@Korts:

vollkan's modded two other self-created games to my understanding:

1)

Mini 554 - Vollville

2)

Mini 610 - Ace Attorney

In Vollville there were multiple investigative roles but no real red herrings thrown in there and in Ace Attorney it looks like there was a Godmother with no Cop. I haven't really looked at the specifics of that Godmother though (might have been immune to NKs instead of investigations since there was a 2-shot vig).

[Korts]

Hmmkay. Thanks for the links, Incog. Scanning the OP of Vollville and this post of AA (no passive roles even; Godmother was NK- and inv-immune though) I don't see any precedence of vollkan using red herrings.

vote: Yosarian2

[Xdaamno]

Hmm, I get vibes for a Yos-Incognito scumteam, trying to delay Yos' lynch. I know Yos recently posted in a mafia discussion thread that stalling for time before being lynched is very useful for scum, which makes it more likely. IGMEOY.

Is this solely because I didn't immediately lend my vote to the growing Yosarian2-wagon or is your suspicion of this pairing based on anything else in the game? Please elaborate on this.

Pretty much the former (if you remove the annoying weasal words) - I hadn't considered it before now, of course.

[Incognito]

Xdaamno, your reasoning doesn't make much sense though. You said that

Yosarian2

posted something in MD about stalling for time before being lynched as scum, so why would Yosarian2's self-proposed feelings about good scum play carry over into my own if I was scum with him? Wouldn't you be more interested in my thoughts of good scum play instead?

Also, what do you think of my case against Ether?

This?

[Xdaamno]

Unless I'm missing something, the answer to your question is obvious: he would have discussed it with you last night?

[Patrick]

1. Ether acts like Ether-Scum.
2. Ether gets called out on it.
3. Ether goes "Oh, yeah. I guess. I'll fix that, though, don't worry."
4. Ether continues to act like Ether-Scum.

I don't know. I certainly don't think she was acting like Caffscum in the first part of day 1; she seemed pro-active and the tone of her posts was different to the when I've played with her and she was scum. The Yosvote still makes me twitch, though her return post sounded genuine. Since then she has seemed very disinterested in the game, which is bothersome because it's not exactly boring, and that does remind me of her disinterest in hunting scum in newbie 530. Looking back, the mention of a cult around the charter-vote seems weird as well because of how incredibly rare they are, especially in a mini normal game. I think she's a decent scum candidate and I want to see some more substance from her today. I don't want it to slide, especially given that a couple of people seem to have ignored the case made by Incognito entirely.

I'm not so sure about an Ether/Yos2 connection; if Ether is scum, her vote on Yos2 seems like it could be pretty equally opportunism or a nervous attempt to bus him. Having said that, I'm not wild about Yosarian's first post today which ignores the meta-style case made against Ether (when he's previously said that Incognito is a good authority on Ether), ignores Incognito's attack on his charter vote yesterday, and places a vote on Xdaamno for jumping on an easy wagon. There's nothing illogical about what he said, but I just feel like he's capable of better at this point. Yos2, what's your view on the case against Ether?

I've done some quick meta on skitzer and am slightly less suspicous of him, since what I've seen does seem consistent with what Korts just said. However, I'm still uncomfortable about how under the radar he's been all game and how little attention he's been getting for it, whilst Izzy got a ton of flak for "noncontribution". There's nothing outrageous in his posts, but his approach seems like it would be beneficial for scum. His "Am I incorrect in deducting that the case on Korts is mostly in his playstyle? It's lurky, but aren't we in agreement that lurky doesn't necessarily mean scummy?" still nags at me too.

I think charter is confirmed beyond reasonable doubt by his proven ability, and I feel pretty certain Incognito is town. GC has also given me a fairly strong protown vibe all game. At this point, I'm guessing all our scum can be found in the other 5. My gut is that Xdaamno is town as well but I'm not as comfortable with that as I am with the above players. Yos2's claim looks worse than it did yesterday; maybe he is a red herring miller, but they must be pretty rare. I don't think I've ever even seen one. Ether and skitzer aren't doing much scumhunting, and my opinion of Korts hasn't improved from yesterday. No vote yet - too many people bothering me.

[Incognito]

Patrick: I too am bothered by skitzer. An additional point against him is how he spent a large percentage of his time yesterday denouncing the issues against DizzyIzzy and giving flak to the people who brought them forward but then ended the day with his vote on her wagon anyway by seeming to "tailor" a case against her. I think it's rather odd for him to originally not see what people were getting at with her but then seeming to magically see the light right at deadline when he was pressured to finally place a vote.

[charter]

Patrick: I too am bothered by skitzer. An additional point against him is how he spent a large percentage of his time yesterday denouncing the issues against DizzyIzzy and giving flak to the people who brought them forward but then ended the day with his vote on her wagon anyway by seeming to "tailor" a case against her. I think it's rather odd for him to originally not see what people were getting at with her but then seeming to magically see the light right at deadline when he was pressured to finally place a vote.

Yes, this worried me too. Skitzer has been uber lurking, but he seems to do that everywhere.

Ether is also playing starkly differently from the game I modded she was in where she was town, soooo, that's kind of suspicious too.

[Yosarian2]

Hmmkay. Thanks for the links, Incog. Scanning the OP of Vollville and this post of AA (no passive roles even; Godmother was NK- and inv-immune though) I don't see any precedence of vollkan using red herrings.

vote: Yosarian2

So...you see two games by a mod, and expect to be able to predict what roles he will and won't use just by looking at those to games? And you would then rather use that incredibly limited amount of information to try and outguess the mod rather then actually, like, do any real scumhunting?

[Yosarian2]

I'm not so sure about an Ether/Yos2 connection; if Ether is scum, her vote on Yos2 seems like it could be pretty equally opportunism or a nervous attempt to bus him. Having said that, I'm not wild about Yosarian's first post today which ignores the meta-style case made against Ether (when he's previously said that Incognito is a good authority on Ether), ignores Incognito's attack on his charter vote yesterday, and places a vote on Xdaamno for jumping on an easy wagon. There's nothing illogical about what he said, but I just feel like he's capable of better at this point. Yos2, what's your view on the case against Ether?

If it wasn't clear, Patrick I just had time to make a quick post in all my games when I got home late last night, I certanly didn't have time to make a detailed response to anything other then a quick response to the attack against me.

Anyway, I tend to agree with Incognito that Ether has not been acting like town-Ether this game; I had the vibe for much of day 1, and while her one post when she came back looked pro-town to me, her play so far today has not. She is verry likely scum. I'm not sure why he changed his mind, though; Incog, could you explain why yesterday you thought Ether's play looked pro-town?

As for Xdaamno; I'm not sure what you mean by "he's capable of better at this point"; I'm pretty sure Xdaamno is scum here, and there's nothing "better" then that. He was attacked yesterday for not voting, and it looks like he was told by his scumbuddies last night "Hey, make sure you vote someone today", and so he did. His vote for me today seems complety inconsitant with his attitude towards me yesterday, and it just really feels like a scum move.

With all the scum still alive and two dead town investigative roles, I certanly would expect the scum to be going for the easy lynch today, since if town mislynches today then town would be at 4 town vs. 3 scum tommorow with very little power left, at which point town is pretty close to screwed. And that easy lynch would clearly be me here, since I got set up by the mod with an improbable role.

Yos2's claim looks worse than it did yesterday; maybe he is a red herring miller, but they must be pretty rare. I don't think I've ever even seen one.

Meh. Well, now you have. Anyway, roles like that in general (roles with an ability that never will get used to throw people off) aren't that uncommon; godfathers who are told they are kill immune but they're the only scumgroup and there's no vig, ect.

You're right that "red herring millers" specifially aren't common, though; if it had occured to me that I might be a miller with no cop in the game, I might not have claimed. I still think that a miller claiming miller on day 1 is generally the right move, but obviously not if there's not a cop in the game.

[Incognito]

Yos2:

I know I said that I thought she was town-ish yesterday, but I think I largely based my feelings of her play on her early attack on me (Ether has a tendency to early blitz attack players she respects when she's town). The rest of her play, however, doesn't really look all that dissimilar from the play I recognized from Newbie 530 where Ether was scum.

Can you respond to this also:

I particularly didn't like

the post

where he placed his vote on charter: to me it looked like he was defending

me

from charter's attack and case and using his defense of me as reason to place his vote down on him where he even concluded that I'm "obvtown and charter is obvscum". I just can't think of a time where I've built a case against someone and placed a vote down on him or her by largely basing my vote on a defense of someone whose alignment I wasn't 100% sure of as town. I have, however, done this as scum.

Do you think the point I've made there is valid? Do you often find yourself voting for another player in defense of another player as town? A sort of "chainsaw defense" except where in this case the person you were defending is town?

[Yosarian2]

Yos2:

Can you respond to this also:

I particularly didn't like

the post

where he placed his vote on charter: to me it looked like he was defending

me

from charter's attack and case and using his defense of me as reason to place his vote down on him where he even concluded that I'm "obvtown and charter is obvscum". I just can't think of a time where I've built a case against someone and placed a vote down on him or her by largely basing my vote on a defense of someone whose alignment I wasn't 100% sure of as town. I have, however, done this as scum.

Do you think the point I've made there is valid? Do you often find yourself voting for another player in defense of another player as town?
A sort of "chainsaw defense" except where in this case the person you were defending is town?

Well, it wasn't a "chainsaw defense", because my main goal wasn't to defend you, it was to find scum. If I see person A making a bad, scummy looking attack on person B, then I often will vote for person A based on that. The fact that I was pretty sure you were town made me more confident about it, but my attack against him had more to do with the craplogic he was using, and with the fact that the words he used made it sound to me like he had more knowlege about Xdaamno's alignment then a townie would.

Of course, we now know I was almost certanly wrong about that since Charter is now basically confirmed, but I still think his "Incognito was trying to lynch Xdaamno without getting his hands dirty" argument did not really make any sense.

[Green Crayons]

Yeah. I'm fairly certain that Ether is scum. This notion is only cemented by the fact that people who know/play with Ether are also saying that they see Ether as scum.

By the way, I think this was a major trip up: "I can't passionately defend myself against the middle two points--

I never really took to this game

." I know that she was looking forward to this game to some extent. And I don't think that she's lying about her lack of interest in this game. But the number one reason why she would become disinterested would be because she is scum. After all, she finds scum to be absolutely no fun (middle of post). And she most certainly does not invest much effort while scum (top of post).

Followed shortly thereafter by, "I don't know what causes that reaction, though I'm pretty sure thick familiarity is a negative, if anything." Pretty funny. Thick familiarity is a negative when you're scum.


So,

vote: Ether

.
I'm still super-happy with a X lynch in the days to come.
I'm warming up to the notion of a Yos lynch.
Skit is looking like lurker scum, regardless if he's lurking the whole site over.

[Yosarian2]

By the way, I think this was a major trip up: "I can't passionately defend myself against the middle two points--

I never really took to this game

." I know that she was looking forward to this game to some extent. And I don't think that she's lying about her lack of interest in this game. But the number one reason why she would become disinterested would be because she is scum. After all, she finds scum to be absolutely no fun (middle of post). And she most certainly does not invest much effort while scum (top of post).

(nods) Yeah, I think it's very likely Ether and Xdaamno are 2 of the 3 scum at this point.

I'm still super-happy with a X lynch in the days to come.
I'm warming up to the notion of a Yos lynch.

Eh? Why? Just because I have an improbable role?

[Ether]

Yo, Korts. Did you ever read that stuff you fell behind on?

No.

Your 705 reads to me like you were aware of the softclaim. When did you catch it? (And yes, I do think you should have been more concerned with OGML than with Charter.)

Ether, I know what you're trying to do here. You're seriously trying to get me to reveal the secret behind the AIM logs that Patrick and I have on your typical play and that's

not

gonna happen.

I'm curious, but I'll live.

Farscape and Big Love (claims here and here, respectively) are the games that caused me to shift my attitude on claimed protective roles. Suspicious ones are good at getting themselves out of the way without my help. I really don't like his sneaking around OGML, though--see above--and am annoyed that he survived at all.

I needed Korts's answer first.

Pfft.

My blitz fell through when it came out that Skitzer was behind the slow start. This put me back on Square 1 without anything to show for it, and I didn't get back into the mood.

Followed shortly thereafter by, "I don't know what causes that reaction, though I'm pretty sure thick familiarity is a negative, if anything." Pretty funny. Thick familiarity is a negative when you're scum.

It's a negative anyway. My activity owned in 707

most of it

despite coming in having played with q21 once and Mizzy twice, and not knowing anyone very well. Patrick replaced in later, but even he lurked. Impatience and frustration fuel me to dominate a low-profile game--in contrast, I'm more likely to be stunted and even replaced when almost everyone's competent.

[Incognito]

My vote ain't movin', but I am curious to see where Ether's going with her Korts line of questioning. I do agree that an OGML-softclaiming-investigative-role protect should trump a charter-essentially-confirmed-vanilla-town protect any day.

[Korts]

Your 705 reads to me like you were aware of the softclaim. When did you catch it? (And yes, I do think you should have been more concerned with OGML than with Charter.)

Well, you people mentioned OGML's softclaim, and I assumed that you meant his reaction to my claim. I had a slight power role read on him based on that. Was there something more than that?

I like how Yos tries attacking me based on the fact that I analysed the mod's modding style to gauge whether a miller without a cop was likely. Why isn't gauging the genuineness of a claim based on an analysis of the mod's previous setups and the revealed roles proactive? You have claimed a role that is convenient for scum to claim, and based on the dead roles and vollkan's previous games it is very unlikely at this point that there would be such a role at all in this game. That is more conclusive to me than situational scumtells that can be wiggled out of.