Mini 771 - Mafia in Ludd: Game Over


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Post Post #750 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 3:54 am

Post by Xdaamno »

Yos, apart from the fact that I have been voting more could possibly agree with the theory that I am scum (but is not a scumtell in itself), are there any extra reasons why I am more scummy today than yesterday? I'm saying this to make sure people don't trust you solely as an authority figure.



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Page 31 Votecount

charter (0/5):
Ether (2/5): Incognito, Green Crayons
Green Crayons(0/5):
Incognito (0/5):
Korts (0/5):
Patrick (0/5):
skitzer (0/5):
Xdaamno (1/5): Yosarian2
Yosarian2 (3/5): charter, Xdaamno, Korts

Not voting (3/9):

Ether, Patrick, skitzer,

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
=======================

Countdown To Day 2
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Post Post #751 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 6:16 am

Post by Xdaamno »

Eh, that was phrased weirdly. You get my point.
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Post Post #752 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 9:26 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Korts wrote: You have claimed a role that is convenient for scum to claim, and based on the dead roles and vollkan's previous games it is very unlikely at this point that there would be such a role at all in this game.
The interesting thing about this sentance is, it actually applies more to your roleclaim then to mine.

I'm not as confident about that as I am about Xdaamno and Ether, but think about what we know about the setup. Out of 9 town, we've got
-Gunsmith (who, btw, can confrirm other people as not mafia)
-Tracker
-Mason recruiter (who can confirm himself as town easily)
-claimed bodyguard

And if there's a gunsmith, I strongly suspect there is another pro-town role with a gun; while it's possible, I've never seen a gunsmith in a game when only the scum have guns, that would kind of defeat the purpose of the role. So, assume one more pro-town role, this one with a gun, with a vig being most likely IMHO.

You've now got 4 out of 9 people with town roles; 5 if you're telling the truth. Plus, the gunsmith can confirm other people as town, and the vig can pick off the unconfirmed. Together, it seems that looking at the setup on paper a mass claim day 2 or 3 or whatever would be a very, very powerful tactic for the town, with a very high chance of the town just "solving" the whole game based on role information.

This implies 2 things to me:
1. Some kind of mod mechanic to reduce the effectivness of a mass claim makes perfect sense; so there is every reason to think the mod would include an improbable role in it, something to confuse the town in the event of a mass claim, something to make that a less dominat tactic.

2. A bodyguard, on the other hand, is more difficult to believe. If there's a mass claim, and the bodyguard can keep the gunsmith alive for just one more day and let him confirm one more person as town, it's likely the scum have no chance.

So, if anything, you are the one claiming a role that is convinent for scum to claim (miller is NOT a role that is "convienent" for scum to claim, considering the high odds of any claimed miller being lynched or vigged; bodyguard, on the other hand), and you are the one who has a role that seems unlikely to be in the game based on mod infromation and based on the dead roles. My role, on the other hand, makes perfect sense.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #753 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 9:32 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Xdaamno wrote:Yos, apart from the fact that I have been voting more could possibly agree with the theory that I am scum (but is not a scumtell in itself), are there any extra reasons why I am more scummy today than yesterday? I'm saying this to make sure people don't trust you solely as an authority figure.
Well, you were pretty scummy yesterday as well, IMHO.

Today, I really think the way you just jumped on my bandwagon based on nothing more you following a confirmed town charter seemed very scummy and oppertunistic. If you are scum, your only priority today would be to secure a mislynch by whatever means necessary; if town mislynches today, town is in deep trouble. Plus, your sudden vote on me seems completly inconsistant with your behavior from yesterday, when you didn't really show any signs of suspecting me at all. You hardly commented on me at all, and when you did, this was the last thing you said about me:
Xdaamno wrote: This last paragraph in and of itself just struck me as town. I suppose you were trying to get me to notice it and not forget it? Going down that thought process is something scum do not need to do, and so I think you are town.
So, yesterday you seemed to be ignoring me completly when it looked like I was going to get lynched, trying to get on my good side when it looked like I wasn't and was attacking you; and as soon as it looks like I might be lynchable today, you vote for me with nothing more then an agreement with another player who's confrimed town. It really feels like scum play to me at this point.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #754 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 9:50 am

Post by Korts »

Yos wrote:Out of 9 town
I like the very direct statement, no ifs or buts, that it is a fact that there are 9 town players. It's not as bad as assuming a certain number of scum, but it's the same kind of slip.

I can see your point about the bodyguard from the perspective of a massclaim; that is probably why I'm not a doctor and die with a successful protection. Also, if you assume a role that is a false guilty for the gunsmith, why fail to recognize the equal possibility of a false innocent?
Yos wrote:(miller is NOT a role that is "convienent" for scum to claim, considering the high odds of any claimed miller being lynched or vigged; bodyguard, on the other hand)
In addition to the fact that you haven't quite made a single point about why my claim would be convenient for scum, this statement has an inherent flaw; millers are lynched or vigged precisely because they are such a convenient claim.
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Post Post #755 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:03 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Korts wrote:
Yos wrote:Out of 9 town
I like the very direct statement, no ifs or buts, that it is a fact that there are 9 town players. It's not as bad as assuming a certain number of scum, but it's the same kind of slip.
Meh. If there is a vig, then with 2 kills last night implies there's most likely just one scum group, and the setup really only can be balanced like that with a 3 man scumgroup. I don't think it's an unreasonable assumption at all; do you disagree?
I can see your point about the bodyguard from the perspective of a massclaim; that is probably why I'm not a doctor and die with a successful protection. Also, if you assume a role that is a false guilty for the gunsmith, why fail to recognize the equal possibility of a false innocent?
Well, that's possible I guess; I can't think of a game when I've seen a "gunsmith immune mafia member" (although I have often seen SK's that don't have guns), but that dosn't mean it's not possible for this game. I'm not sure how much difference that makes, though; if you're telling the truth, that's still 5 pro-town players with strong claims.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not compeltly convinced you're scum here, and I'm not going to read too much into trying to outguess the mod especally considering my own role. But you need to keep charter, the confirmed innocent, alive tonight; if charter dies and you're still alive, you should be lynched tommorow, no question.
Yos wrote:(miller is NOT a role that is "convienent" for scum to claim, considering the high odds of any claimed miller being lynched or vigged; bodyguard, on the other hand)
In addition to the fact that you haven't quite made a single point about why my claim would be convenient for scum, this statement has an inherent flaw; millers are lynched or vigged precisely because they are such a convenient claim.
Well, your claim would be convenient for scum in that it's not actually confirmable, it's not likely to be counterclaimed if you're lying because bodyguards aren't very common, and it's not a role claim the town was likely to lynch on day 1.

As for the miller claim; feh, in a different meta, perhaps. In the current meta, I'm pretty sure the risks of a scum claiming miller are higher then the risks of getting cop investigated, even if there was a cop.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #756 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:07 am

Post by charter »

I don't think there's a vig. I think it's a SK because a vig would have shot Yos. However, normally, SK's don't use guns, so it does make the gunsmith role more of a question.
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Post Post #757 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:28 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

charter wrote:I don't think there's a vig. I think it's a SK because a vig would have shot Yos. However, normally, SK's don't use guns, so it does make the gunsmith role more of a question.
Eh...the whole point of a gunsmith roles is that the mafia has guns, but so do some pro-town people (generally cops, vigs, perhaps PGO's although that dosn't really matter, perhaps some others), so a "gun" result is significantly less useful then a guilty, and may actually out a pro-town power role if the gunsmith isn't careful. I've never seen a gunsmith in a game without a pro-town gun, never. This could be the first, of course.
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Post Post #758 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:40 am

Post by skitzer »

charter wrote:Vote Yosarian2
Claimed scum yesterday. A gunsmith and a tracker? Looks like he hedged his bets wrong.
This is tricky. The miller is just WIFOMy if there isn't a cop, so it's not really anything towards balance. If anything, a copless miller detriments the town.
Green Crayons wrote:I noticed a slight discrepancy between the claim and the actual follow through. Why exactly did you think Dizzy the town vanilla was a great person to vote D1?


Her end-of-day votes were kind of wishy-washy. They were all on claimed players, and it seemed as once someone debunked her reasoning, she hopped to the next. Plus, charter had already used his masonization on her, and it seemed pointless not to lynch her and test charter's claim.
Ether wrote:I never really took to this game.
You sound like you are already dead, or being replaced, neither of which I saw proof of.

And, speaking of the last few posts: I've also been pondering the setup. We know there is at least two kills (probably not any more) and there was a Gunsmith, so just by general inferencing I'm going to say that the Gunsmith could have picked up both roles.
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Post Post #759 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:36 am

Post by Patrick »

Yosarian2 wrote:As for Xdaamno; I'm not sure what you mean by "he's capable of better at this point"; I'm pretty sure Xdaamno is scum here, and there's nothing "better" then that. He was attacked yesterday for not voting, and it looks like he was told by his scumbuddies last night "Hey, make sure you vote someone today", and so he did. His vote for me today seems complety inconsitant with his attitude towards me yesterday, and it just really feels like a scum move.
It seemed like a pretty thin contribution, but fair enough I guess if you were just dropping in. I'd only checked the time stamp to see if it was a quick before work post. I don't feel his attitude towards you is inconsistent, because we're dealing with significant new information today that makes your claim look worse. By that token, it seems like you could be calling alot of us inconsistent today, although I do get your argument about how it was an easy vote.
Yosarian2 wrote:Out of 9 town
See, I don't think this is a safe assumption. Vollkan's first post kind of implies just a town v mafia game, and in his last mini normal, I actually used that to help me figure out the setup. What worries is me is that postgame one or two people made comments about how players shouldn't be able to figure out the setup based on what the mod writes, so I could see him taking that on board. I also think SK is more likely than vig; it seems like we'd have a huge amount of power with a tracker, gunsmith, vig and masoniser, even if Korts is scum.
Yosarian2 wrote:Well, your claim would be convenient for scum in that it's not actually confirmable, it's not likely to be counterclaimed if you're lying because bodyguards aren't very common, and it's not a role claim the town was likely to lynch on day 1.
This seems like the opposite of what you said on day 1 about scum claiming bodyguard. Am I missing something?
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Post Post #760 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:42 am

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skitzer wrote:This is tricky. The miller is just WIFOMy if there isn't a cop, so it's not really anything towards balance. If anything, a copless miller detriments the town.
To clarify, do you feel his claim is more or less suspicious than yesterday, or about the same?
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Post Post #761 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:49 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Patrick wrote:This seems like the opposite of what you said on day 1 about scum claiming bodyguard. Am I missing something?
Yeah, I know. Claiming bodyguard has advantages and disadvantages. I suppose I'm just less trusting of the claim now that I have a better idea of the setup; plus, I'm a little bothered that he didn't protect OGML, who I thought was pretty obviously a pro-town information role, although his claimed protection of Charter makes sense.

In any case, I don't really want to lynch Korts today; he's about my #3 suspect right now.

On a side note, it might be wise if people who aren't already claimed would stop chiming in now with comments about if they think a vig or a SK is more likely, since that may just help the scum find the vig if there is one.
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Post Post #762 (ISO) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 12:00 pm

Post by charter »

Yosarian2 wrote:
charter wrote:I don't think there's a vig. I think it's a SK because a vig would have shot Yos. However, normally, SK's don't use guns, so it does make the gunsmith role more of a question.
Eh...the whole point of a gunsmith roles is that the mafia has guns, but so do some pro-town people (generally cops, vigs, perhaps PGO's although that dosn't really matter, perhaps some others), so a "gun" result is significantly less useful then a guilty, and may actually out a pro-town power role if the gunsmith isn't careful. I've never seen a gunsmith in a game without a pro-town gun, never. This could be the first, of course.
I'm not arguing this. There were two kills last night. I don't think either was from a pro town source, because a pro town player with a vig shot would have shot you last night. That's how I come to SK.
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Post Post #763 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 3:12 am

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I'm not really getting much out of the past few posts probably because they've been about set-up spec.
Post 755, Yosarian2 wrote:Well, your claim would be convenient for scum in that it's not actually confirmable, it's not likely to be counterclaimed if you're lying because bodyguards aren't very common, and it's not a role claim the town was likely to lynch on day 1.
This was exactly my line of thinking yesterday when I maintained my vote on Korts so it strongly surprised me when you seemed to feel otherwise. I see Patrick touched on this also. Looking back, I see you were mainly thinking of things from a Cop/Miller perspective, but I just find it weird that if you're telling the truth about your role, a player of your caliber wouldn't have considered that perhaps we may be dealing with a screwy type of set-up that simply has no Cop even with the presence of a Miller. Your insistence on there being one yesterday just strikes me as off.
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Post Post #764 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 4:09 am

Post by Xdaamno »

Yosarian2 wrote:
Xdaamno wrote:Yos, apart from the fact that I have been voting more could possibly agree with the theory that I am scum (but is not a scumtell in itself), are there any extra reasons why I am more scummy today than yesterday? I'm saying this to make sure people don't trust you solely as an authority figure.
Well, you were pretty scummy yesterday as well, IMHO.

Today, I really think the way you just jumped on my bandwagon based on nothing more you following a confirmed town charter seemed very scummy and oppertunistic. If you are scum, your only priority today would be to secure a mislynch by whatever means necessary; if town mislynches today, town is in deep trouble. Plus, your sudden vote on me seems completly inconsistant with your behavior from yesterday, when you didn't really show any signs of suspecting me at all. You hardly commented on me at all, and when you did, this was the last thing you said about me:
Xdaamno wrote: This last paragraph in and of itself just struck me as town. I suppose you were trying to get me to notice it and not forget it? Going down that thought process is something scum do not need to do, and so I think you are town.
So, yesterday you seemed to be ignoring me completly when it looked like I was going to get lynched, trying to get on my good side when it looked like I wasn't and was attacking you; and as soon as it looks like I might be lynchable today, you vote for me with nothing more then an agreement with another player who's confrimed town. It really feels like scum play to me at this point.
I can see what you're saying, but I disagree that my lack of comment was particularly scummy - everyone already knew the reason. What did you expect me to write? "Vote: Yos because of the reason stated above" is superfluous, and "Vote: Yos because of the miller claim" would make it look like I was trying to take credit for the exact same thing the poster before me said, IMO.
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Post Post #765 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 9:21 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Incognito wrote:I'm not really getting much out of the past few posts probably because they've been about set-up spec.
Post 755, Yosarian2 wrote:Well, your claim would be convenient for scum in that it's not actually confirmable, it's not likely to be counterclaimed if you're lying because bodyguards aren't very common, and it's not a role claim the town was likely to lynch on day 1.
This was exactly my line of thinking yesterday when I maintained my vote on Korts so it strongly surprised me when you seemed to feel otherwise. I see Patrick touched on this also. Looking back, I see you were mainly thinking of things from a Cop/Miller perspective, but I just find it weird that if you're telling the truth about your role, a player of your caliber wouldn't have considered that perhaps we may be dealing with a screwy type of set-up that simply has no Cop even with the presence of a Miller. Your insistence on there being one yesterday just strikes me as off.
(nods) Yeah, I was thinking in terms of there being a cop since my role specifically made a point of saying I would look guilty to cop investigations. I suppose I should have realized there might not be one, but honestly, it never occured to me.
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Post Post #766 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 9:55 am

Post by skitzer »

Patrick wrote:To clarify, do you feel his claim is more or less suspicious than yesterday, or about the same?
I guess more suspcious: any vig (or SK trying to look like a vig) would have killed him.
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Post Post #767 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:28 am

Post by Xdaamno »

Yosarian2 wrote:
Incognito wrote:I'm not really getting much out of the past few posts probably because they've been about set-up spec.
Post 755, Yosarian2 wrote:Well, your claim would be convenient for scum in that it's not actually confirmable, it's not likely to be counterclaimed if you're lying because bodyguards aren't very common, and it's not a role claim the town was likely to lynch on day 1.
This was exactly my line of thinking yesterday when I maintained my vote on Korts so it strongly surprised me when you seemed to feel otherwise. I see Patrick touched on this also. Looking back, I see you were mainly thinking of things from a Cop/Miller perspective, but I just find it weird that if you're telling the truth about your role, a player of your caliber wouldn't have considered that perhaps we may be dealing with a screwy type of set-up that simply has no Cop even with the presence of a Miller. Your insistence on there being one yesterday just strikes me as off.
(nods) Yeah, I was thinking in terms of there being a cop since my role specifically made a point of saying I would look guilty to cop investigations. I suppose I should have realized there might not be one, but honestly, it never occured to me.
Really? I would have thought a miller would do the right thing by assuming there was a cop (especially in a vollkan setup, unlikely to have blank roles imo) - why should it have occured to you?
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Post Post #768 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:34 pm

Post by Patrick »

skitzer wrote:I guess more suspcious: any vig (or SK trying to look like a vig) would have killed him.
Not sure what the second part has to do with first. You're saying he looks more suspicious because he wasn't nightkilled or something?
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Post Post #769 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 3:52 pm

Post by Incognito »

Post 758, skitzer wrote:
Ether wrote:I never really took to this game.
You sound like you are already dead, or being replaced, neither of which I saw proof of.
What are your thoughts on Ether's *alignment*?
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Post Post #770 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:43 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

Yos's scum list:

Xdaamno:
-avoided doing any kind of scumhunting for most of day 1
-I disliked the way he kept his vote on Patrick for so long while never really attacking him
-That whole scummy "I don't like top 3's, if you want to know who I suspect look at my posts" thing, when in his posts he had not suspected anyone at all
-Only changed as a result of pressure
-Started out day 2 with a vote on me that seemed to contradict what he was saying yesterday, with no explination other then a quote from charter

Ether
-Is not following her town meta
-claims to have "lost interest" in the game; Ether scum tell
-Combination of admitted stratagic lurking and general reluctance to scumhunt
-Has done almost nothing today

Xdaamno: What do you think about Ether? I notice you've almost never responded to her or commented on anything she's said all game, you've basically ignored her completly, except when you did your summery of everyone in the whole game, when you said this:
Xdaamno wrote:
Ether:

Ether wrote:Sometimes, I don't like myself very much. I woke up much less enthusiastic about my Yosvote than I was when I placed it, finding myself under suspicion that I...didn't really disagree with, and put off addressing it. (On Thursday, I
was
doing a programming cram, but that's Thursday.) This is a recovery mode post; I won't really feel comfortable until I'm interacting again.
Weak town vibes from the self-deprecation.
What do you think about Ether in general, Xdaamno? Do you still get "town vibes" from her?
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Post Post #771 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:46 pm

Post by Korts »

So it seems everyone who has had significant prior experience with Ether thinks that she is not playing to her town meta. I am willing to support her wagon.
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Post Post #772 (ISO) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 12:40 am

Post by Green Crayons »

As well you should. Where's the vote?
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
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Post Post #773 (ISO) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:40 am

Post by Korts »

On Yos. Same level of suspicion, bigger wagon.
scumchat never die
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Post Post #774 (ISO) » Thu Apr 30, 2009 2:30 am

Post by Patrick »

Vote: Ether
. Don't think she'd be doing this as town.
Primpod 11:13 pm
chamber can you please come to ukmeet
i would love to finally touch your face

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