DHSDSM alpha: Game Over.

[whoami8]

Okay, personally I can't understand ever thinking that lynching all claimed power roles would benefit the town. Even for a newbie, I don't understand it. I would think they'd be MORE scared to try something like that, if anything. Maybe it's just because I am not a maths/strategy person. I can't break games. I wouldn't even try, even now, and certainly not when I was new.

Another question for Yos: why did you think the first kill was a vig kill? And what help is it to speculate and point that out if it was?

[Apples and Banana]

The first person who posted her aim was Adel (our Mod).... I was kinda scared I would get mod killed for pointing it out but now that I know I won't.... It was not you, why did Nuwen answer that question with the implication it was you who first posted it and

she gave you permission to do so

... You did not Adel did, so why did she write that... You know Dude, its all about little lies for no reason...

You fail at reading. The first person who posted it was Yos. Adel quoted Yos' post.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Who should I vote for? I've got a hard time keeping up.

[whoami8]

[quote="KaleiÃ

[whoami8]

BTW Hoops confirm or deny that you asked the mod about Yos' post.

That wasn't me. I don't like the way you're blinding shovelling out suspicion to anyone you think may have been online. I think most of the players don't make their online status visible.

[/color]

Talk to RW about that.

[whoami8]

Zaz and Kmd are both undercontributing to this game.

PtA is not posting enough neither is DGPlum.

Pick up the pace!

[Raging Rabbit]

Cathcing up as I go along.

These two things are not mutually exclusive.

They aren't, but thus far we've done loads of the talking and none of the lynching.

I am very much against rushing a lynch or two, especially when the reasoning is that based on one previous speed game run, 3 out of four of the scum corresponded to one particular stereotype.

For the record, I (RR) wasn't even is WIHI. My thoughts are completely independant of that game, though Orhoops' example only goes to strenghten my opinion.

Furthermore, the idea that its ok because days 1 and 2 we're random lynching anyway is just grade a bullshit - the reason later days are more informative is because we have spent time and effort discussing the day 1 and two lynches. I've lost track of the amount of times scum have been caught because they've just wagoned onto the easy lynches all the time with no independent opinion - but that's the sort of analysis we can only make if we're playing the game properly and not mucking around with fancy plans

How do you propose to gather this information, than? Do things at the regular speed and watch the buddies pile while we sit and contmeplate? I never proposed random lynching, but I am saying we have to be a lot quicker on the trigger than we normally are.

We need to stop thinking so much about this, frankly. It's really very simple. We play mafia, just at twice/thrice/quicker the normal pace.

I realize you were talking about WIHI here, which I agree shouldn't be over analyzed, but this is exactly the type of thinking scum would want us to use.

This isn't by any means a regular game

. We have however many lynches we want, and our only limit is that another townie dies every 84 hours. To approach this as "a noraml game of mafia, only twice as fast" is suicide, unless you're scum of course. which is starting to look more and more likely.

Whether or not it is poor scumplay depends on what they were trying to achieve. If, for example, they were a scum power role trying to get another scum to send in the kill because they wanted to use their power role instead, it would have been a good play.

QT is for scum what cellphones are to people. No need whatsoever to call him out in thread, and trying to question the guy about his role some more before killing him is downright stupid. No, I see this play as just as bad for scum as it is for town, and like in every other case, bad play doesn't equal scum play, even in the case of a generally good player.

Overall, very scummy vibes. Outing breadcrumbs based on probabilities and statistics is not good play, and I'd even say is scummy play, for reasons outlined above: that it alerts the other anti-Town faction (if applicable), and that it sets a precedent for scrutinizing and lynching claimed Power.

Haven't thought of this before. It is pretty good as an SK tell, though I maintain that's it's terrible play for scum. Since the number of SKs in this game (0.5, or 50% probability our vig will also be a murdering psycopath) is 4 times smaller than the number of remaining scum (2), it's still not that big a deal though.

Yos' 188 chekcs out just fine, still think he's more likely town than not.

I'm a bit puzzled by Shaft.ed's nice and understanding tone in 201, it sorta feels like he knows Yos is town and wants him to go down quietly.

Walt's 226 is sorta real funny.

I agree that the person who tried to get Yosariwen modkilled is more likely scum if he didn't 'fess up, which is another small point in their favor.

I don't get Walt's qualm with sex club assuming A&B were behind the modkill attempt. While not necassarily correct, I don't see how that's a scumtell.

sex club's 249 is also a good point, while the modkill thing seems to bode well for Yos it can easily be a distraction attempt. Scratch that about the modkill being a point in favor.

Yosariwen's 255 -

Nobody can "get you modkilled." You have to do something modkillable, and then it would be your fault, not anyone else's even if they point it out to the mod.

Oh, absolutly. But in my experence, when someone tries to point out to the mod "Person X broke rule Y right here, see, look?" it's usually a scum trying to get a townie modkilled. And between this statement and your other head's attempt to blame apples for it, I'm starting to think it's the two of you who did it, and are now lying about it.


[qupte]
NOBODY NEEDS TO GET YOU MODKILLED SINCE WE ARE LYNCHING YOU.

Nope. Town almost lynched me, but I'm now starting to think we're going to lynch scum instead.

Weird post. I assume that was Nuwen, 'cause it should be kinda obvious that neither elvis nor shaft.ed would do that (try to get a townie modkilled for BS reasons as scum, that is).

257 - Walt's is way overreacting, and according to our qt was rather drunk at this point.

259 means 255 was Yos after all, which sorta baffles me. Remember that part about Yos feeling like his usual town self? Not so sure now.

J-scope 267 - I can see where he's coming from with the case against Orthoops, but still find the conclusion dead wrong. The confidence displayed by hoopla in the post Walt compared to a dentist is indeed sorta too much, but he has the right idea on lynching fast and furious, and I'd be pushing hard for a Yos lynch as well if I thought the case was any good. I see orthoops as strong town at this point.

Got to go now, and I'm only at the start of page 12. This game's really going at an insane pace, which is excellent, though time consuming. Be back later tonight, I hope.

[SensFan]

257 - Walt's is way overreacting, and according to our qt was rather drunk at this point.

What QT?

[Saunt Adelaus]

Votecount as of post 307:

Yosariwen:

6

:Frog Dodging, sex w/ shafteds wife club, Ortohoops, Pesco Light, Raging Wishbone,
sex w/ shafteds wife club:

1

:PoketheAlpaca,
Raging Wishbone:

1

:Zmd
Ortohoops:

1

:J-Scope,
Zmd:

1

:Death the Hogfather,
Apples and Banana:

1

:Zaphod Beeblebrox

not voting:

1

:Yosariwen

while 12 are alive, 7 votes will lynch

[whoami8]

Do things at the regular speed and watch the

buddies

pile while we sit and contmeplate?

Freudian slip? :

beardscratch

:

I'm a bit puzzled by Shaft.ed's nice and understanding tone in 201, it sorta feels like he knows Yos is town and wants him to go down quietly.

Someone's not doing their meta homework.

What QT?

Are you even playing the same game(s) as the rest of us?

[Yosariwen]

It was not you, why did Nuwen answer that question with the implication it was you who first posted it and

she gave you permission to do so

... You did not Adel did, so why did she write that... You know Dude, its all about little lies for no reason...

Um...Nuwen said something to me over AIM. I asked Nuwen if I could post it in thread, BECAUSE I WOULD NOT WANT TO REVEAL HER AIM NAME TO EVERYONE WITHOUT HER PERMISSION, and Nuwen said it was ok. So, yes, Nuwen gave me permission to post that in thread. Adel didn't have to give me permission, because it was specifically stated in the rules that it was ok.

So, what, exactally, is it that you seem to think is a lie? That was just the direct truth. NO ONE HAS LIED. If you really think someone has lied here, you need to explain exactally what you mean, because you're not making any sense.

Also, there is the whole breadcrumbing thing which I think either Hoopla, or someone else caught but they pointed out that you indicated you and Nuwen had talked but Nuwen lied and said you didn't... I might be wrong and it may be vice versa.....

I just explained this a page ago. Are you reading the thread at all here?

People misinterpreted something nuwen said in a bizzare way, somehow thinking she was saying we had talked about her mentioning the breadcrum before she said it in thread, when actually if you read her post in context it's quite clear she was saying the exact opposite of that. I already explained this all, when discussing this with Hogfather, and he unvoted me as soon as he realized his logic was incorrect. And now you're trying to use that as an argument against me even after it's been proven to be invalid?

Go back and read that response I made to Hogfather, if you want; if you have any questions then, I'll be glad to explain farther.

[Zaphod Beeblebrox]

This is Plum at the helm saying that Yosariwen is probably town. And that Raging Wishbone and Apples and Banana are probably my top suspects. I will, jhowever, try to do a readthrough and commentary now; we'll see how long it is . . .

Ortohoops' post noting something Trotsky said early is good. It may involve WIFOM but I'm inclined to agree that Trotsky was more likely pointing out three actual townies (Myself is confirmed to me, Incamn has flipped, and I'm inclined to say Yosariwen is town without this).

Thus far I see Frod Dodging being useless, arguing against Orthoops' plan (meaning supporting slowing down the game, meanig bad) and then after being called out on it immediately upping the aggressive with a vote on Yosariwen, who thus far feels strongly town. That's definitely good enough for a

vote: frog dodging

.

I don't see that; I see FD arguing against basically policy lurker lynchng. I agree that speedlynching lurkes is a bad idea, but I'm not letting the lurkers of the hook: lurking, especially active lurking/posting without much actual content will be weighted as a BIG scumtell in my books. Nvertheless, I think the first part of your attack on FD here is a misrepresentation, as Ortohoops' plan was not perfect; parts were not even good ideas to implement, and I don't see FD's arguments against it as actually translating into wanting to slow the game down, as you say.

FOS Raging Wishbone

.

I'm not at all suspicious of Yosariwen, the crumbing, while a bad move, feels like unnatural play for scum (especially smart scum), and while I've never played with Nuwen, Yos feels like his town self thus far.

For posterity and the sake of maintaining my sanity as I write this, I'm noting this.

Let the vig take care of lurkers.

Yeah, except there's every chance it's an SK, no?

@ Apples and Banana

Sign your posts, please. This is a special request from me and I need it to better read you and will consider it scummy, or at least very shady, if you refuse.

PBPA of Yosariwen:

The timer counting down the end to Action Phase 1 is off - it's set to 12:00 on 3-30-09 instead of 4-30-09. Link to fixed countdown.

thanks for the correct link. Editing the OP now. ~Adel

Not game-related, but here for the sake of having all the posts.

Second post in the game, dears, pointing out an error to the Mod is an absolute nulltell. The first part may be true, but the conclusion you come to is unmitigatd, scummy junk.

Lurker vote, when, as pointed out, several other hydras hadn't posted either. Quite coincidental, in hindsight, that he happened to pick someone that flipped Scum, given how many people had yet to post.

But as Yos said, pressuring would work best with a specific target and a vote on said target. Yes, his answer was good, and no, I don't find that suspicios, but I'm seeing shades of the Too Townie to be Town fallacy from you, A&B. Coincidence is null.

Another weak, WIFOMy, semanitc-reachy comment on Yos from A&B.

All in all, I've come to a point where I disagree that Nuwen's crumb-outing indicates scum for her, and much of the rest of the case is wrong and misrepresentative and scummy. And no, I don't, at this point, see the Trotsky vote by Yosariwen as anything but coincidence + possibly the fact that lurkers are more likely to be scum.

@ Raging Wishbone

also sign your posts for me please with which hydra head is talking.

Paraphrasing the rest of the posts today; I think the sexed v yo/nuw argument sound like two townies... although Frog Dodge made an excellent point elaborating on a few other posts that it did seem like Yoso lied and completely contradicted Nuwens post about them not talking...

My partner wants his vote on Froggy right now, so I'm leaving it there, but we talked earlier and he said he would be able to post soonish... so if he wants to take Yoso to L1... I trust my honey Bunnies judgement.

I ain't got many good scum reads right now, I have town reads...

Jscope
Hoops
PokeaTaj

I kinda think...

yousonew
sexwithashaft

...and probably frogdoger may be townies. In fact without my partner around I would unvote frogdodge if he was in danger of being lynched... Yoso I am just not so sure about, I also dont like that she is posting elsewhere as someone else pointed out but not here?

You're trusting your partner's judgement on two players you think may be town? No strong scum reads? Get some and grow a spine while you're at it, please; if you think someone is scum, don't sit with your vote on him or her.

Somehow the whole discussion of who/if tried maybe to get Yosariwen modkilled seems both distracting and pointless in retrospect.

This will be a BAD lynch imo, so whoever pulls the trigger please make sure everyone else wants to stay on board considering the dialog of the last few hours!

This on the rospect of a Yosariwen lynch.

Regarding YoSo, I would not vote to lynch them, (other than their possible lie and trying to find an excuse for sexEd, I still think they sound like townies trying to stay in the game).... then again my partner is much wiser and expereinced than I am so if he votes them tomorrow or next chance he has to vote I will support his choice!

*pulls out hair in frustration* Also RW keeps continuing the train of thought re someone possibly trying to get Yosariwen mokilled . . .

DEATH looked okay to me, just a bit, er . . . I'd say dense, but with two hours of sleep I'd probably be worse; after he realizes his error, the gut town read on him lines up.

I am really thinking yoso is a bad lynch... Whoever wants to hammer, please read the last four pages (tonights posts) carefully... and give it just a tad of time. My partner said he would probably be around tomorrow afternoon and I know RR will cut through those pages like butter melts on warm bread...

I am NOT stalling, a few hours wont hurt... I just really think there was something important in the last four pages and it would be prudent for everyone to consider before hammering yo/nuwen!

If you think someone is town and a bad lynch you basically have the obligation, as a Townie, to argue some against the lynch, tll us why it's bad, and offer an alternative suspect. I don't see any of that; you're just assuming it's inevitable . . . scum distancing from town wagon? Gah, I'll try to make that the first and last of the sort of speculation for the moent, sorry.

Aha I see what happened, the alts are confussing things... Here is the last post I see from DGB/plum or Zaphord Beeblebrox?

Unvote; Vote: Apples and Banana

*Plum*

If she voted for SexEd... I can't find it?

I think it was a mistake on the part of the Mod.

ZMD, WHY AM I WONDERING WHETHER YOU GUYS ARE EVEN IN THIS GAME, HUH?

meh, I have been thinking.. I guess you all are right and I am wrong A & B, SexEd, my humble apologies... I give, she can go to L1...

UNVOTE: Vote YosNuwen!

I guess we all get credit for the hammer now.

Sudden, unexpected, unexplaianed switch from 'Yosariwen is prob town' to 'I'm putting Yosariwen at L-1 because suddenly I decided I needed to lick everyone's boots'? DIE SCUM DIE.

Unvote; Vote: Raging Wishbone

Ugh, and then you go back on yourself aagin? *is going to be bald at this rate of hair-pulling*

And then you vote again because apparently Nuwen didn't answer certain of your questions except I can't see where any questions you've asked have made any sense? *goes to pull out her sister's hair*

@ Yoso: There was another game a bunch of the same people here played called "Lovers multi ball".... so you put together a nice AIM log,...well four of our scum posted FAKE daytalk in that game ten times more convincing then what you wrote! They were SleepeyPanda/Armix and the other scum was Neko/Sekinj... Their daytalk was a brilliant attempt, but it was really easy to cut through the BS and end that scum game quick.

This both means nothing about Yosariwen's alignment and makes no sense in the context of the arguemtns I think you're trying to make.

Would I hammer you both now? NO! But I have no problem putting you at l1 after spending half my night defending you and I will let the rest of the town be the judge of this and who we lynch.

I judge RW to be scum and in need of a mice swift lynch in the, uh, neck. If you're not willing to hammer someone, especially in this game it would beg the question: Why did you put Yosariwen at L-1? Want to seem clean of blood?

RW is scum and A&B probably are, too. The WW half seems to have been the one who did that. Anyone have a meta on RR specifically? Remember, both pairs I suspect, I need you both to sign your posts from now on, all of them.

[Yosariwen]

Another question for Yos: why did you think the first kill was a vig kill? And what help is it to speculate and point that out if it was?

To be clear; it wasn't that I thought it was a vig kill, it was that I thought it was possible it was a scum kill, possible it was a vig kill, and possible it was a SK kill. At the time, any of those seemed like possibilities to me; at the time, remember, we were well on our way to lynching Incamn, so I did think it was possible a dayvig with an itchy trigger finger would try to hurry the game along by just killing Incamn if he thought they were scum. Now, I never thought it was *more likely* a vig kill then a scum kill, but it did seem like a definate possibility to me.

And I wasn't trying to "point out" that it was a vig kill, either; it just seemed odd to me that Frog seemed to have a much higher level of certanty about where the kill came from then I did, and that make me wonder if perhaps he was part of the scum group that made the kill. Not a huge scumtell, perhaps, but worth mentioning and questioning him about.

[Apples and Banana]

@ Apples and Banana

Sign your posts, please. This is a special request from me and I need it to better read you and will consider it scummy, or at least very shady, if you refuse.

SensFan is the only one posting so far this game. If xofelf posts, we'll let you know.

PBPA of Yosariwen:

The timer counting down the end to Action Phase 1 is off - it's set to 12:00 on 3-30-09 instead of 4-30-09. Link to fixed countdown.

thanks for the correct link. Editing the OP now. ~Adel

Not game-related, but here for the sake of having all the posts.

Second post in the game, dears, pointing out an error to the Mod is an absolute nulltell. The first part may be true, but the conclusion you come to is unmitigatd, scummy junk.

Ummmm...what? Where did I say it was scummy, or anything but a nulltell? In fact, I even specifically said I only included it for the sake of having all of Yosariwen's posts. What are you talking about?

Lurker vote, when, as pointed out, several other hydras hadn't posted either. Quite coincidental, in hindsight, that he happened to pick someone that flipped Scum, given how many people had yet to post.

But as Yos said, pressuring would work best with a specific target and a vote on said target. Yes, his answer was good, and no, I don't find that suspicios, but I'm seeing shades of the Too Townie to be Town fallacy from you, A&B. Coincidence is null.

Too Townie? What the fuck are you talking about? I said he picked one target from the 5 possible hydras that hadn't posted, and now that target flipped Scum. I'm someone that gets a LOT of reads from the 'random' phase of the game, and I do think its telling and worth noting that he just so happened to pick Scum. Call it dumb logic, or completely irrelevant if you feel that way, but where the hell are you getting be calling him Too Townie?

Another weak, WIFOMy, semanitc-reachy comment on Yos from A&B.

Can you clarify which comment you think is "weak, WIFOMy, semantic-reachy"?

Remember, both pairs I suspect, I need you both to sign your posts from now on, all of them.

Why the fuck would you want only 2 specific hydras to sign their posts, if you think knowing who is posting will help you read people? Shouldn't you want EVERYONE signing their posts?

[Apples and Banana]

Oh, I just remembered.

KMD, you claim to have some sort of secret meta tell on me. What's your take?

[Yosariwen]

Too Townie? What the fuck are you talking about? I said he picked one target from the 5 possible hydras that hadn't posted, and now that target flipped Scum.

The thing is, voting for someone who hasn't posted yet is something I usually like to do for a "not quite random" vote, partly because I do think scum are at least slightly more likely to do that then town. I do that in enough games, I am going to hit scum some of them.

Do you really suspect anyone who random votes for a scum? Because if everyone random votes, then that would usually include about 25% of the town in most games...

[Plum]

Ummmm...what? Where did I say it was scummy, or anything but a nulltell? In fact, I even specifically said I only included it for the sake of having all of Yosariwen's posts. What are you talking about?

My apologies; I misinterpreted and thought you said that Yosariwen was only doing it for the sake of having more posts in the game, etc. My mistake.

Too Townie? What the fuck are you talking about? I said he picked one target from the 5 possible hydras that hadn't posted, and now that target flipped Scum. I'm someone that gets a LOT of reads from the 'random' phase of the game, and I do think its telling and worth noting that he just so happened to pick Scum. Call it dumb logic, or completely irrelevant if you feel that way, but where the hell are you getting be calling him Too Townie?

I do think it's dumb logic, and I find it remeniscent of the Too Townie fallacy. You verbally exaggerate the value of the tell - even for a mostly gut suspicion, you keep saying that he has 'clear ties' to Trotsky.

Can you clarify which comment you think is "weak, WIFOMy, semantic-reachy"?

You say "it looks like scum can both day talk and submit a kill at any time." Shouldn't you

know

that to be the case, since you were Scum in Adel's previous Deep South game, Crackers! Mafia, where we were scumbuddies and could daytalk? Why would you think Adel would change the rules for this one, especially when Town won that game? And the part about not outing it in-thread is WIFOM.

This one. It seems to imply or suggest Yosariwen might be deliberately be playing clueless about it. The fact that

a) Such a point was based on fairly weak semanitics and thus felt a bit reachy

and

b) The Scum Role PMs posted by the Mod in one of the first posts indicated quite clearly that Scum do have a QT

made the comment feel useless and off.

Must go.

[whoami8]

Yoswen why are you still alive btw?

[J-Scope]

For reference here is my page 1 vote for Incamnito, which I find odd considering you voted her too!

I'm not talking about our joke votes.

I didn't notice a crumb at first, I was keen for an early bandwagon though.

So you admit you weren't reading?

Since then I did not express suspicion for Incamnito. Your post is incredibly reaching and paints me in a negative light when you're accusing me of something I didn't do.

Maybe you did read the crumb, maybe you didn't. But explain to me how "since then I did not express suspicion for Incamnito" holds up against your post 35?

Incamnito looks as good as caught-scum.

That looks like suspicion, or were you pushing a wagon based on a joke and trying to paint someone as scum?

[Yosariwen]

Yoswen why are you still alive btw?

Well, apparently, most people aren't convinced by the case against me. Even the people voting for me seem to not be convinced by their own arguments; you certanly seem to have doubts, and Raging Wishbone apparently wanted to put me at lynch -1 but wouldn't want to hammer me, or something.

[J-Scope]

I'm trying to look at this wagon and the reasons behind it from all angles. Right now I don't think the tells are that strongly indicative of scum.

First real post of the game, and it points out a breadcrumb. I've been trying to figure out if there are any possible scum motivations for doing this, by looking at the role list, and the only one I can think of is trying to get Incamn killed by the Mafia/SK (other than her), if there is one.

I don’t follow the logic of this idea. If she can kill and she thinks she’s found town power role then why doesn’t she kill it herself? The only upside I can think is that another killing faction doesn't kill her, but that's at very low odds that early so it doesn't seem worth it as any faction. What other reason is there?

With Yos having an almost 'perfect' answer to Trotsky's question, its also very possible this line of questionning had been planned in advance.

I don’t think it would be hard to have the perfect question if it wasn’t planned out. It’s a weak question so it wouldn’t seem that important to plan, but scum could give each other weak questions in order to look like they are interacting. So it’s not a reliable connection in my opinion.

Then again, the clear connection to Trotsky is best explained if they are scumbuddies.

There were 5 (iirc) players who had yet to post. You chose 1, supposedly out of thin air. It ended being Scum. You might have legitimately just happened to choose Scum, you might have decided to poke your scumbuddy into posting, you might have decided you might as well vote your buddy to distance. I pointed it out as a possibility, and that I consider it a slight scumtell.

How was the connection clear and best, and yet you only considered the vote, which is a large part of their connection, a slight scumtell?

Seriously, anything I do, I know why I do it and can explain it in as much detail as is desired. It's silly of you to suggest that somehow me being able to explain why I do the things I do somehow is suspicious.

Must…fight…Appeal to Authority.

Actually Yos’s post 194 just have some valid and logical explanations for why someone would out a crumb like Nuwen did. But I don’t think these were ever reasons they thought of when they outed the crumb. He’s just showing how it

could

have been justified.

mercuriala (6:01:11 PM): I suspected this was a breadcrumb of doc protection on the third player, ZMD, whom she oddly voted for.
mercuriala (6:01:40 PM): Didn't even cross my mind that it was a tracker crumb, since there would be no results to report yet

I think this fits “data role” just as well as any. She never said tracker so it’s odd that people jumped to that conclusion after Incamn flipped. It just feels like Incamn’s flip was used by scum to setup this lynch.

God you suck at this game. I thought I was bad, but jesus. Why in the hell would scum super bus their remaining partner on D2? Get your head out of your ass.

There’s no need for that ad hom. RRBone bit back a little too but this was the worst of it and you initiated it. I want a calmly thought out lynch, not some giant ball of emotion that scum can easily manipulate for a quick lynch.

FoS: sex with shaft.ed

[whoami8]

Yoswen why are you still alive btw?

Well, apparently, most people aren't convinced by the case against me. Even the people voting for me seem to not be convinced by their own arguments; you certanly seem to have doubts, and Raging Wishbone apparently wanted to put me at lynch -1 but wouldn't want to hammer me, or something.

pretty sure you know that's not what I'm talking about

[Ortohoops]

ortolan here

Why would you assume something before you have reason to assume it? I'd say that Yosariwen pointing out the breadcrumb thus signaling to the scum "HEY-O POWER ROLE HERE" is a much better reason for the kill than to frame 5 people on a bandwagon.

So you think they are an SK? Otherwise please explain to me why it would not make more sense for them simply to point out the crumb in their quicktopic and then kill.

I already broke down the likely reasons for all five votes in one of my posts.

Yer but the point was you explained their votes in terms of "they're all dumbasses" etc. but this implies that the reason they are voting is that they are dumb townies, as opposed to scummy. Yet you still went on to vote Pesco (again having earlier just said they were "weak" rather than scummy).

You're also basically saying that Incamn was guilty until proven innocent, which is completely ass-backwards here. Power roles of both alignments have motive to crumb their action, yes. However, pointing it out will either tell the scum what they already know or say "HEY-O POWER ROLE HERE" to them.

I agree with this though.

Explain "Incamn's crumbing was a null-tell" v. "Incamn's crumbing was more likely to be scum than town" to me, please.

and this.

Why are you assuming it was a scum kill, Frog? Especally considering that there were 5 votes on the wagon, I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Incamn kill was a compulsive vig (remember, if there is a compulsive vig, that role has to kill every single action phase, every 96 hours.)

Why would you assume compulsive vig over SK anyway? Each appears equally likely to be in the setup. I am wondering whether to interpret this as its own attempt at a crumb.

Thus far I see Frod Dodging being useless, arguing against Orthoops' plan (meaning supporting slowing down the game, meanig bad) and then after being called out on it immediately upping the aggressive with a vote on Yosariwen, who thus far feels strongly town. That's definitely good enough for a

vote: frog dodging

.

Strongly disagree with this.

FoS: Ragin'

The "arguing against Ortohoops plan" is not necessarily true, is an easy target and you don't go into detail. What specifically do you find pro-town about Yoswen also??? Never mind, you later clarify the second part.

Let the vig take care of lurkers.

You know there is a vig how? What is the rationale behind the kill on Trotsky not coming from an SK?

I don't see why we're assuming scum will play a carbon copy of the other game anyway - nor do I see any indication that that was what DGB did in war in heaven. If we say that scum are only x, y and z type of people, then it's way too easy for scum just to avoid the prescribed scumtells and never be lynched. We need to stop thinking so much about this, frankly. It's really very simple. We play mafia, just at twice/thrice/quicker the normal pace.

I agree with this again. Froggy's become quite pro-town in my eyes (and reactions similar to mine).

If, for example, they were a scum power role trying to get another scum to send in the kill because they wanted to use their power role instead, it would have been a good play.

Actually, they can day-talk, so they didn't need to declare it in-thread.

I like A&B's 186, especially:

This makes even more sense if Yosariwen is an SK that is setting up a Compulsive Vig claim

My thoughts exactly.

The other point I will make out power roles is that saying they are equally likely, if truthful to be Mafia as to be town is assuming the principle of insufficient reason- "because there are 3 mafia power roles listed, and 5 town, a power-role is 3/8ths likely to be scum." Now while I actually used this earlier to assume an SK or vig is equally likely in this setup, it's not necessarily wise to do. Just because a mafia power-role can appear in the game, doesn't necessarily mean it's necessarily as likely to appear as another listed town power-role. Especially take into account game balance here.

...and something else I just realised. Nuwen explicitly said that Incamnito's crumb was for an

information

role. None of the mafia power-roles are, in fact,

information

roles.

Um, scum can apparently daytalk because it says they can in the scum role PMs posted in the mod's post. Putting the word "apparently" into sentances like that is basically a force of habit by this point, since if I didn't, you probably would have called THAT a scumtell.

I don't actually like the use of the word "apparently" here either. The opening pms very obviously state that scum can daytalk. There's no reason to use qualifying phrases like "it looks like".

If Incamn had been a scum who was trying to breadcrumb tracker early on so they could use that to their advantage later, then calling it out and putting the spotlight on Incamn early would have been an AWESOME pro-town play.

The point being made here (by Frog I believe) was in fact that the breadcrumb is more likely to have come from town than scum- so if in fact the breadcrumb did turn out to be from scum it still would have been bad play to have pointed it out, because this outcome was less probable than the alternative.

Only if the crumb is noticed. If a scum can plant a crumb early on and no one notices it, then the scum can use that crumb to set up a fake claim later in the game; or can choose to not do so, if it's to their advantage. Which is another advantage to pointing out a crumb, especally if it's a crumb that seems like one a pro-town person wouldn't really want to make.

Really; why would a pro-town tracker feel the need to crumb at the very part of day 1? I still don't get that, personally; considering it's a semi-open game, the odds of a tracker claiming tracker and not being believed seems very small to me.

You basically contradict yourself here. You suggest scum have a decent chance of fake-breadcrumbing/fake-claiming tracker yet suggest there is little reason not to believe a tracker-claim.

I'm still catching up (thanks to Hoops for doing most of the work so far) but right now I'm very very happy with the Yoswen vote. I know people don't like wall o' texts so I'll probably make another post to get up to present.

[Ortohoops]

Unvote Vote : Sex with shafted.

This is a good wagon.

what

(keep messing up the alts thing)

On a side note, the fact that whoever attempted to have me modkilled is refusing to admit it is making me more and more convinced that that person is scum. Now, there weren't that many people around and posting at the time; it's possible that someone just stopped by the thread, tried to get me modkilled, and left without posting, though.

I agree with this. However it does not preclude Yos being scum at all. It may simply have been an SK if he is mafia, or a mafia player if he is an SK.

249 by sex w/ is pretty scummy. It's clear

someone

asked whether Yos could get mod-killed. It's not a dead end at all, the only problem is working out who it actually was. I don't see much town motivation in asking for someone who's alignment you are unsure of to be mod-killed.

...and right n this is a good response, although I do disagree with two things. I think it is critical to find out who tried to get Yoso mod killed, if someone did..... however in the end if Yoso does get lynched and flips scum THEN it is a mute conversation.

no it isn't. See above.

I honestly think J-Scope's reasoning for voting us in 267 is pretty weak, especially with all the other drama taking place in the surrounding posts which he could (also) be commenting on.

You also want to remember, Nuwen is kind of a newbe here. She only has 2 completed games; heck, she couldn't even play as an IC yet. She was awesome in WIH, of course, and clearly has a lot of natural talent, but she hasn't seen nearly as many games as we have.

That's bs. She picked up on a breadcrumb I still don't even understand (LuL) and was perfectly happy to "run numbers" for the likelihood of a power role being scum vs town (even if I disagree with the principle of insufficient reason assumed). Btw, I don't buy the earlier/subsequent stuff about "information role" not implying an "data-gathering role".

You've got to be kidding - half of the town's power roles have a scum counterpart. You don't think it would be optimal play for a scum roleblocker or doctor to crumb early in an attempt to out-town any potential counterclaims? There's no reason to set up a fake claim when two out of four scum roles (mafia doc, mafia roleblocker) already have built-in safe claims, complete with role-complementary actions. I've already pointed out that Camn had no reason to set up a tracker crumb without receiving any results (which I assume she had yet to get, as her crumb was planted 18 minutes into the game).

Optimal play for scum =/= scummy play

Thus far, all I've seen is a case bred entirely from my decision to declare crumbing as a neutral tell

I refer back to Froggy's point here. Even

if

breadcrumbing is a neutral tell, that doesn't make pointing out the breadcrumb logical, or optimal play anyhow.

They definitely need to hang. Nuwen's 283 just goes on with undeveloped questions for Zmd, and they haven't developed anything against PokerFace/tajo. They just seem like stalling scum, and still haven't role-claimed.

...And I agree with Hoops that J-Scope is moderately scummy (292).

[J-Scope]

I honestly think J-Scope's reasoning for voting us in 267 is pretty weak, especially with all the other drama taking place in the surrounding posts which he could (also) be commenting on.

Why? It looks like your two heads contradict each other then and now. You liked the wagon and you didn't explicitly mention the crumb but you did say let's focus on this game. Both me and myself liked the wagon but we explicitly said we didn't believe in the crumb. There in lies the difference, because now you do believe in the crumb when conveniently you ignored discussing it until you could use it in your favor to push a second wagon. Why ignore commenting on it the first time?

...And I agree with Hoops that J-Scope is moderately scummy (292).

Her defense was that you pushed the wagon with reasoning while she only kept it at a joke vote. That you were the one to say, let's focus on this game. Tell me, if you were so focused on this game did YOU catch that Incamn had crumbed and it was outed?