DHSDSM alpha: Game Over.

[Apples and Banana]

Vote:Trotsky

Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos

Nor had others, including us.

Why single out one hydra?

[Apples and Banana]

The wagon on Incamnito grew way too quickly, imo. Pesco Light, especially, seemed to be voting for a comment the Mod said couldn't be backed up, due to talking about the other game.

Unvote, Vote: Pesco

[Apples and Banana]

I get the same impression as Ortohoops as it pertains to Frog Dodging. In a game where activity is important, and several have talked of lynching the lurkers, FD's posts are all basically the definition of active lurking. Summarizes events, doesn't take stances where they can avoid them, and pointing out what he calls a bunch of stupid town plays.

KMD - I'm not usually that much more than a post-a-day player, really, and I'm the only one whose posted thus far.

[Apples and Banana]

KMD - I'm not usually that much more than a post-a-day player, really, and I'm the only one whose posted thus far.

It's not like you didn't know what you were signing up for. Step it up.

You expect me to post much more often than 1-2 posts a day? I don't see why anyone who is posting more than once a day could possibly be called 'lurking', and I think the people that are trying to set up lynches based on that are looking for easy targets, or targets they know are Town.

Is this just Ortohoops and sex w/ shateds wife, or do the rest of you also think that this is somehow lurking?

[Apples and Banana]

PBPA of Yosariwen:

The timer counting down the end to Action Phase 1 is off - it's set to 12:00 on 3-30-09 instead of 4-30-09. Link to fixed countdown.

thanks for the correct link. Editing the OP now. ~Adel

Not game-related, but here for the sake of having all the posts.

I don't get it. What does Portishead have to do with Zmd? It is an inside joke? I want answers!

Are you that dense?

Incamn's crumbing is neutral for now, as there are multiple data roles than can be of either alignment and would benefit from early crumbs. Currently a null tell.

First real post of the game, and it points out a breadcrumb. I've been trying to figure out if there are any possible scum motivations for doing this, by looking at the role list, and the only one I can think of is trying to get Incamn killed by the Mafia/SK (other than her), if there is one. Although there is also the possibility she was just trying to set a trend of being able to heavily scutinize any Power claim.

Vote:Trotsky

Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos

Lurker vote, when, as pointed out, several other hydras hadn't posted either. Quite coincidental, in hindsight, that he happened to pick someone that flipped Scum, given how many people had yet to post.

Vote:Trotsky

Hasn't posted yet.

-Yos

i like that you singled me out. why so protective of sex w/ shafted's wife, raging wishbone, frog dodging, zmd, apples and banana, i wonder?

Because in this stage, the main point of any vote should be to get a reaction and get the game moving, try to get something going (especally when we're on a very short clock, like this game) and singling one person out is more likely to get a useful reaction then going after 5 people at once.

Explains why one was singled out, though it still remains that the person picked supposedly for the sake of picking someone flipped Scum. With Yos having an almost 'perfect' answer to Trotsky's question, its also very possible this line of questionning had been planned in advance.

Yoswarian

: What did you hope to accomplish with this post? (other than mocking J-scope, that is)

Incamn's crumbing is neutral for now, as there are multiple data roles than can be of either alignment and would benefit from early crumbs. Currently a null tell.

wow just had sex with the wife ironically enough. No time for a post but have to say this deep south thing is exciting. Damn shame incamn was being so obviously townie.

So Yos noticed the tracker breadcrumb. why did you point it out so blatantly?

Actually, that was Nuwen, and I'm not sure why she did. I rather wish she hadn't, considering; I feel that it was a mistake. That being said, in a game like this, if a scum thought he or she had seen a town power role tell, the right move wouldn't be to make a big deal about it in thread; it would be to not say anything in thread and just quietly kill the person without making a big point of mentioning you figured out their role, especally since it looks like scum can both day talk and submit a kill at any time.

-Yos

You say "it looks like scum can both day talk and submit a kill at any time." Shouldn't you

know

that to be the case, since you were Scum in Adel's previous Deep South game, Crackers! Mafia, where we were scumbuddies and could daytalk? Why would you think Adel would change the rules for this one, especially when Town won that game? And the part about not outing it in-thread is WIFOM.

unless she was further fishing for confirmation of said breadcrumb

I guess. That's be a really high risk scum gambit with a really low chance of a payoff, though, especally with good players like incognito.

Ortohoops: Horray for lurker lists. Thanks for doing all that work, I'm usually the only one who bothers to make a lurker list and I'm glad to see someone else doing it. I agree with you, lurking in this game is incredibly anti-town and scummmy, more so then in a normal game.

Any specific reason you voted for Zmd out of those 4 people with 2 posts? Just curious; I'll probably check them all out for myself when I have a chance and vote for whichever one of them looks the worst, beause I agree with your logic here.

Raging wishbone: I quoted that because the second half of rule 6 talks about the rules for kills, not because of the part about lynching.

And yeah, since Incamn was actually a tracker, I think it was a mistake for Nuwen to mention in thread her thoughts about the possible breadcrumb; if Incamn had been scum instead, it wouldn't have been a mistake.

As for your last few sentances; I have no idea if she thinks she's "incapable of making mistakes", and I'm not sure what that has to do with my comments on her play.
-Yos

Comments on the lurker list, says he'll go back and look at the 4 hydras with only two posts, which still hasn't been done. Asks if there's a specific reason ZMD was voted for, out of the four lurkers, when he had chosen Trotsky 'for the sake of choosing someone to focus on' earlier in the game. I also don't see why the fact that Incamn was actually a trakcer has anything to do with whether calling out the crumb was a mistake or not. Whether Incamn flipped Town or Scum shouldn't change the validity of the play to call out the breadcrumb.

@Yosariwen and anyone else who cares to chime in... Did Nuwen out Incamnito as a Tracker?

Yes and no. I pointed out Incamn's breadcrumbs because power role identification in this game has a very high reward versus risk. There are 3 scum among 14 players (~79% chance of mislynch with vig, ~70% chance of mislynch with sk). However, there are 3 possible scum power roles to 5 possible town (no greater than 40% chance of mislynching,

if all five are in the game and at least 2 scum power roles exists

. If less than five town power roles, chance of hitting scum by outing power roles increases).

At the time, "outting" Incamn's breadcrumbs had a much higher chance of hitting scum than voting randomly. However, I wasn't prepared to lynch on a fluid series of probability predictions. I said the breadcrumbing action itself was equally town and scum motivated - this is important to remember for all future breadcrumbing and claims; all remaining town power roles have a scum/anti-town counterpart with the similar inclinations to crumb/claim.

I am

not endorsing

that the town seeks out power roles to lynch; Incamn's isolated crumbing caught my eye, particularly after J-scope's overtly clueless reaction.

-Nuwen

Its almost never a good idea to base lynches in Mafia off of math probabilities, especially when it is all based off of uncertain data. There is more re-enforcing of the opinion that all Power claims are (if I'm reading this right) more likely to be Scum than Town. She finishes off the post by saying that she's not looking to lynch all Power roles, even though she explicitly pointed out a page 2 Power crumb.

explanation

That's exactly what you're seeing - Wishbone and company asked for an explanation and got one. Are you

really

trying to make a requested response seem scummy?

If reading comprehension is the issue, my point can be summarized as: there was no reason to assume Camn's breadcrumbing came from a town player. Power roles of both alignments have motive to crumb their action, and hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

You can't possibly be claiming that Town is better of lynching claimed Power than lynching unclaimed people, are you? Especially since, now that you've pointed it out, Scum may very well decide not to crumb their Power, if any. This isn't a game of lynching based on math odds, and it seems you're trying to play everything you've done off as being statistically correct.

At the time, "outting" Incamn's breadcrumbs had a much higher chance of hitting scum than voting randomly.

But didn't you initially call it a null tell?

Here's the distinction - the

motivation

behind breadcrumbing was a null tell (any power role has the motivation to crumb his or her results, regardless of alignment). As an independent body, nothing Incamn did made him/her more likely to be scum than town or town than scum.

Probability

dictates that killing a random power role will hit scum more often than killing any other random player. This isn't a tell; it's a ratio observation independent of the crumbing itself.

hitting a power role at random is more likely to hit scum than hitting any play at random.

Did you have this feeling back then?

Mmhm, but I wanted to run the idea by my hydra partner prior. We came to the consensus that although the chance of a mislynch is lower, the cost to town is far higher. But that rough probability is a good item to keep in mind when approaching any future claims.

Pointing out Incamn's crumbs was a bad move in retrospect, yeah, and I apologize - but I didn't see any reason why the act of crumbing was anything but neutral.

Right, but you're still missing the point. Even though the act of crumbing iitself may be neutral (though I disagree on that note, which I'll explain in a second), pointing out every crumb you see is akin (though worse) to just asking for a mass-claim on Day 1, because in your view claimed Power is more likely to be Scum than a random person. And I still think crumbing is slightly pro-Town, since Scum that don't have a role will force themselves to lock into a claim very early if they want to crumb, which may backfire or become irrelevant if the set-up then stops that claim from being passable.

Why would you assume something before you have reason to assume it? I'd say that Yosariwen pointing out the breadcrumb thus signaling to the scum "HEY-O POWER ROLE HERE" is a much better reason for the kill than to frame 5 people on a bandwagon.

Why are you assuming it was a scum kill, Frog? Especally considering that there were 5 votes on the wagon, I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Incamn kill was a compulsive vig (remember, if there is a compulsive vig, that role has to kill every single action phase, every 96 hours.)

I would assume the Compusive Vig has enough sense to at least wait until later in the action phase to send in a kill, if the kill is just being sent it to avoid having a random choice happen.

---

Overall, very scummy vibes. Outing breadcrumbs based on probabilities and statistics is not good play, and I'd even say is scummy play, for reasons outlined above: that it alerts the other anti-Town faction (if applicable), and that it sets a precedent for scrutinizing and lynching claimed Power. This makes even more sense if Yosariwen is an SK that is setting up a Compulsive Vig claim, and killing anyone that was wagoned to a claim (since Nuwen thinks its statistically correct, and Yos says a Compulsive Vig could very well kill just because the target was wagoned). Then again, the clear connection to Trotsky is best explained if they are scumbuddies. Add in the fact that Yos claims he's usually tough on lurkers, but has yet to follow up on Ortohoops' lurker list, and I think the Yos wagon has a lot of merit.

Vote: Yosariwen

That's 5, and lynch-2.

[Apples and Banana]

Lurker vote, when, as pointed out, several other hydras hadn't posted either. Quite coincidental, in hindsight, that he happened to pick someone that flipped Scum, given how many people had yet to post.

Protip: Voting for a scum is not a scum tell.

There were 5 (iirc) players who had yet to post. You chose 1, supposedly out of thin air. It ended being Scum. You might have legitimately just happened to choose Scum, you might have decided to poke your scumbuddy into posting, you might have decided you might as well vote your buddy to distance. I pointed it out as a possibility, and that I consider it a slight scumtell. That might just be me, though, since I tend to get a ton of information from 'random' votes.

Explains why one was singled out, though it still remains that the person picked supposedly for the sake of picking someone flipped Scum. With Yos having an almost 'perfect' answer to Trotsky's question, its also very possible this line of questionning had been planned in advance.

Dude, I'm Yosarian. I've got a perfect answer for every question.

Seriously, anything I do, I know why I do it and can explain it in as much detail as is desired. It's silly of you to suggest that somehow me being able to explain why I do the things I do somehow is suspicious.

Right. I get that you can explain everything you do. But I thought it was fairly obvious that you just picked a name, but the combination of Trotsky flipping Scum and then he happened to ask you why you picked only one name. It just rubbed me as being an insincere back-and-forth with the two of you.

You say "it looks like scum can both day talk and submit a kill at any time." Shouldn't you

know

that to be the case, since you were Scum in Adel's previous Deep South game, Crackers! Mafia, where we were scumbuddies and could daytalk? Why would you think Adel would change the rules for this one, especially when Town won that game? And the part about not outing it in-thread is WIFOM.

Um, scum can apparently daytalk because it says they can in the scum role PMs posted in the mod's post. Putting the word "apparently" into sentances like that is basically a force of habit by this point, since if I didn't, you probably would have called THAT a scumtell.

As for your last sentance; you can't just wave the WIFOM wand to make arguments you don't like go away. If our actions don't make sense for a scum to do, then you can't call them scummy; that's what scummy means, is an action that scum is more likely to do then a town.

But the word "apparently," at least to me, shows that you might be trying to imply subtely that you don't know for sure, since you aren't Scum. You could have said "since the Scum can daytalk," without the word 'apparently', which serves no purpose but to show that you have some doubts.

And I

explained

why the play makes sense as Scum, because it would lead to the other anti-Town faction (if there is one) to have a higher chance of killing him. Therefore, saying Scum wouldn't do it

is

WIFOM, since it could be a scum move, or just a poorly thought-out Town move.

Comments on the lurker list, says he'll go back and look at the 4 hydras with only two posts, which still hasn't been done. Asks if there's a specific reason ZMD was voted for, out of the four lurkers, when he had chosen Trotsky 'for the sake of choosing someone to focus on' earlier in the game.

I think I made clear that I liked Ortohoops's play here. Asking for additional information can only help in a case like this.

I never said you didn't like the lurker list, or that I thought you didn't like it. I said you said you would go back and look at the 4 hydras with 2 posts, and you didn't do that yet.

I also don't see why the fact that Incamn was actually a trakcer has anything to do with whether calling out the crumb was a mistake or not. Whether Incamn flipped Town or Scum shouldn't change the validity of the play to call out the breadcrumb.

Wait...what?

If Incamn had been a scum who was trying to breadcrumb tracker early on so they could use that to their advantage later, then calling it out and putting the spotlight on Incamn early would have been an AWESOME pro-town play.

I disagree. If the play was right, it was right regardless of Incamn's alignment. If it was the wrong play, it was wrong regardless of Incamn's alignment.

If Nuwen thought it was Scum laying a fake crumb, then she should have said that, rather than claim she was just pointing out a crumb for the sake of pointing out a crumb. Besides, would it really be a terrible thing if Scum faked a claim of Trakcer, and had to come up with a string of increasingly difficult results as the game went on?

Its almost never a good idea to base lynches in Mafia off of math probabilities,

Why not? It's often a very good idea, especally if that's all you have to go on.

Really? You think its a good idea to lynch someone because they crumbed a Power Role, and there's a X% chance that a claimed Power is Scum, which is larger than the Y% chance that any random player is Scum? In that case, why shouldn't the Town mass-claim?

You can't possibly be claiming that Town is better of lynching claimed Power than lynching unclaimed people, are you?

That was her belief at the time, yes.

I find the thought process itself hard to believe, but even worse would be POSTING that.

Right, but you're still missing the point. Even though the act of crumbing iitself may be neutral (though I disagree on that note, which I'll explain in a second), pointing out every crumb you see is akin (though worse) to just asking for a mass-claim on Day 1, because in your view claimed Power is more likely to be Scum than a random person. And I still think crumbing is slightly pro-Town, since Scum that don't have a role will force themselves to lock into a claim very early if they want to crumb, which may backfire or become irrelevant if the set-up then stops that claim from being passable.

Only if the crumb is noticed. If a scum can plant a crumb early on and no one notices it, then the scum can use that crumb to set up a fake claim later in the game; or can choose to not do so, if it's to their advantage. Which is another advantage to pointing out a crumb, especally if it's a crumb that seems like one a pro-town person wouldn't really want to make.

But pointing out any crumb you see is, as I said, akin to going ahead with a mass-claim. It outs Power Roles, with the intent being trying to bust Scum with bad claims.

Really; why would a pro-town tracker feel the need to crumb at the very part of day 1? I still don't get that, personally; considering it's a semi-open game, the odds of a tracker claiming tracker and not being believed seems very small to me.

Why would Scum possibly want to set up a Trakcer claim, of all roles, one of the harder ones to successfully pull off?

Again, I wouldn't have pointed it out, because I'm especally paranoid about outing power roles and outing roles in general in basically any setup. Nuwen thought she had pro-town reasons for doing so, though, and there really is no reason for a scum to do that.

I still don't see the logic in lynching claimed Power, much less the logic in announcing that in-thread.

Your SK speculation dosn't make sense either, since a SK could just as easily daykill as the a mafia member could; trying to direct the kill of the other scum group in thread, on day 1, just seems like it would be an absurdly suicidal gambit to me, for very little real benifit.

What gambit? Is your stance not that there's nothing scummy or wrong with what she did? If so, how would that be an SK gambit?

[Apples and Banana]

Also whoever posted Nuwens aim account was wrong to do so (if I ever want my private im accounts published, I will post them!)...although in this case after playing "war in heaven" with her when she was scum, ti s good thing... her response seemed genuine, I really think she is gonna flip town.

I have my AIM listed in my profile, it's within public knowledge domain. And Yos checked with me.

Oh, right on, so Yos posted it first? and he asked your permission? This is a discussion you both had?

...See he didn't as far as I can read, someone else did, perhaps a scum buddy? This ties into the lie which originally got you put on the spot. You claimed to have a non existent conversation with Yos regarding crumbtrails. you both contradicted each other... I kinda still think you are a bad lynch but why lie when you don't need to?

What the fuck are you talking about?

I mean, I still support a Yosariwen lynch, but this is ridiculous.

*Nuwen has had her AIM listed in her profile (and so under every one of her posts) for quite some time
*Nuwen talks to her hydra partner, Yos, over AIM
*Yos (presumably) told her sex w/ shafted was claiming she was active lurking
*Nuwen explained in that snippet that Yos posted
*Yos then (presumably) asked Nuwen if he could just copy-paste that directly into the thread

What the hell is so hard to understand?

[Apples and Banana]

The first person who posted her aim was Adel (our Mod).... I was kinda scared I would get mod killed for pointing it out but now that I know I won't.... It was not you, why did Nuwen answer that question with the implication it was you who first posted it and

she gave you permission to do so

... You did not Adel did, so why did she write that... You know Dude, its all about little lies for no reason...

You fail at reading. The first person who posted it was Yos. Adel quoted Yos' post.

[Apples and Banana]

@ Apples and Banana

Sign your posts, please. This is a special request from me and I need it to better read you and will consider it scummy, or at least very shady, if you refuse.

SensFan is the only one posting so far this game. If xofelf posts, we'll let you know.

PBPA of Yosariwen:

The timer counting down the end to Action Phase 1 is off - it's set to 12:00 on 3-30-09 instead of 4-30-09. Link to fixed countdown.

thanks for the correct link. Editing the OP now. ~Adel

Not game-related, but here for the sake of having all the posts.

Second post in the game, dears, pointing out an error to the Mod is an absolute nulltell. The first part may be true, but the conclusion you come to is unmitigatd, scummy junk.

Ummmm...what? Where did I say it was scummy, or anything but a nulltell? In fact, I even specifically said I only included it for the sake of having all of Yosariwen's posts. What are you talking about?

Lurker vote, when, as pointed out, several other hydras hadn't posted either. Quite coincidental, in hindsight, that he happened to pick someone that flipped Scum, given how many people had yet to post.

But as Yos said, pressuring would work best with a specific target and a vote on said target. Yes, his answer was good, and no, I don't find that suspicios, but I'm seeing shades of the Too Townie to be Town fallacy from you, A&B. Coincidence is null.

Too Townie? What the fuck are you talking about? I said he picked one target from the 5 possible hydras that hadn't posted, and now that target flipped Scum. I'm someone that gets a LOT of reads from the 'random' phase of the game, and I do think its telling and worth noting that he just so happened to pick Scum. Call it dumb logic, or completely irrelevant if you feel that way, but where the hell are you getting be calling him Too Townie?

Another weak, WIFOMy, semanitc-reachy comment on Yos from A&B.

Can you clarify which comment you think is "weak, WIFOMy, semantic-reachy"?

Remember, both pairs I suspect, I need you both to sign your posts from now on, all of them.

Why the fuck would you want only 2 specific hydras to sign their posts, if you think knowing who is posting will help you read people? Shouldn't you want EVERYONE signing their posts?

[Apples and Banana]

Oh, I just remembered.

KMD, you claim to have some sort of secret meta tell on me. What's your take?

[Apples and Banana]

What QT?

Me and Walt set up a QT to communicate when we're not both online. You should do the same if you're town and haven't yet.

1) I'm the only one posting/playing, xofelf has been busy
2) She's my girlfriend, I talk to her on a very regular basis anyways
3) Mind posting a screenshot of an earlier segment of the QT? Preferably one where you're discussing who you think is Scum. Also nice to be included would be the title of the QT. (Obviously, crop/blur out the url.)

[Apples and Banana]

see rules 17 and 18

Yeah, gathered as much. We talk about beta as well there, so that can't be done. I could paraphrase our talk on alpha, though.

Ah, hadn't even thought of that.

Don't bother paraphrasing, that ruins the purpose.

[Apples and Banana]

This setup will include 1 Mafia Group of 3 players, AND at least 1 Compulsive Vig OR 1 Sk.[/i]

We know it is a 3-man scumgroup (1 left), and exactly 1 Compulsive Vig or SK.

[Apples and Banana]

Frog, have you submitted that choice?

[Apples and Banana]

Frog, have you submitted that choice?

Yes. Why do you ask?

Well, before I answer that question:

Since we're hunting for a single Scum, should we mass-claim and see if we have a forced win?

[Apples and Banana]

Frog, have you submitted that choice?

Yes. Why do you ask?

Well, before I answer that question:

Since we're hunting for a single Scum, should we mass-claim and see if we have a forced win?

I wouldnt be oppossed to claiming, I'm not sure what my partner will say. I can think of a reason why it would be prudent to keep one of our power roles hidden, if we have this role... What do you mean by forced win? - ww

If we have 4 Cops, for example.

[Apples and Banana]

What makes you think we have so many power roles other than vig and two trackers?

Fine, I'll put it out there.

I'm also a Tracker.

[Apples and Banana]

You forgot to include results with your claim.

I'm not sure its best to claim results yet.

[Apples and Banana]

1. With 1 vig dead, we now know that there is only 1 scum group (unless SK has been no-killing, not bloody likely), which make a scumgroup of 4 or even 5 a lot more probable.

We know its a 3-man scumgroup. Pay attention.

2. With one tracker (confirmed by sex's flip) out and one roleblocker down, town can play follow the tracker and force scum to hunt the doc (if they exist). Which is a very ideal situation all around.

So 2 Trackers is even better.

-> You, as a claimed tracker, should be sensible to these factors. So why would you come up and ask for a massclaim, especially since you don't even have a scum result?

If I had a Scum result, it wouldn't be a massclaim, it would be game over.

FOS APPLES AND BANANA

for not making sense.

I don't see why Town would throw suspicion on a claimed TRACKER, that claimed under no pressure, (damn-near impossible to fake-claim for any length of time) when there's ONE Scum left.

Unvote, Vote: nyball

[Apples and Banana]

If you are a town tracker, you will be killed (if Death the Hogfater was town). So why not give your result?

If we're going to massclaim, which I think we should, I'll wait to see if/who Scum claims to have targetted.

[Apples and Banana]

Still, doc (if they exists) should protect Jdodge, because he is more confirmed than Apples.

While that's true, do me a favour and explain why the last Scum would fakeclaim Tracker, with no pressure, with so many people alive.

I think the Doc, if any, or Watcher (if there can be one, I don't remember) should claim, to draw the next kill, and RANDOMLY pick one of us using random.org.

[Apples and Banana]

Ummmm....that thread was irrelevant. I never said I'd be V/LA here, I've just been quite busy. And the fact xofelf is posting is completely irrelevant, she hasn't posted here YET.

I tracked ZMD for the first phase, he didn't target anyone.
My other targets are all dead, unfortunately.
I told you, I crumbed Tracker with the blatant misspelling EVERY time I used the word.
I find it ridiculous people somehow think I bussed my last buddy with 8ish Town (and another killer) alive, then fakeclaimed a role that's basically impossible to fake for any length of time.

[Apples and Banana]

Oh, and

Vote: ortohoops