Mini 771 - Mafia in Ludd: Game Over

[charter]

Mmm.. if this is a two mafia group set-up like I think it might be (two mafiates per group), we might not only need to lynch correctly but also make sure to lynch the scum of the Mafia group that Ether was

not

a part of in order to still have some kind of a chance. It

could

still be a one mafia group and one SK set-up and the "Red Mafia" thing might be thrown in there as a red herring, but I'm thinking the two mafia group thing is looking more and more likely.

Actually, this makes a lot of sense. Scum would never never NEVER kill a claimed miller. The only possible reason for doing so is they believed the miller to be a traitor or a member of another scum group. Although, all of this still pretty much holds up if there is a SK too (they need to kill mafia at some point). However, two groups of mafia with two people seems like an impossible amount of scum for a mini.

Currently on page ten or so.

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Page 34 Votecount

charter (0/4):
Green Crayons(0/4):
Incognito (0/4):
Korts (0/4):
Patrick (0/4):
Xdaamno (0/4):

Not voting (6/6):

charter, Green Crayons, Incognito, Korts, Patrick, Xdaamno

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
=======================

Countdown To Deadline

[Incognito]

It also makes sense with the skitzer kill. I personally would have never thought skitzer was town. Also, charter, have you never read Mountainous Multiball? That set-up has 8 Vanilla townies and 2 mafia groups of 2 scum each (Goons) for a total of 12 players. With the ability to cross-kill, 4 mafiates in a mini game isn't all that impossible, I think.

I'm just noting that if I'm correct in my speculation, Xdaamno is exactly the person of the remaining players I would most expect to be Ether's buddy. Therefore, I'm highly leery of any kind of Xdaamno lynch today even though I do think he might be scum.

[charter]

No, I have not ever seen that setup. That seems quite difficult on a town, but now I know not to rule it out in this one.

Page 20 now.

[charter]

Ok, reread. Will post the thoughts after massclaim.

Xdaamo
Patrick
Incognito
Green Crayons
Korts

My claim is still the same.

[Korts]

Korts, did you protect charter again last night?

Yes.

Right now, my only suspect is Xdaamno, I guess I'll have to try reading again.

[Xdaamno]

I'm vanilla, and Erg0 suddenly seems hilarious to me after a few days off this game.

[Green Crayons]

Incog, other than the "red" in Red Mafia, what started you off thinking we had two separate scum groups?

[Incognito]

I'll answer after Patrick claims.

[Incognito]

Actually, I'd like to request that I claim after GC. Is that OK with everyone?

[Patrick]

I'm vanilla. This is starting to look extremely sour. I agree that we likely have 3 scum alive, which means at least one of my town reads here was wrong. 2-2-8 strikes me as more likely than 3-1-8 because of the specific name "red mafia" and because a three person scumgroup with a roleblocker seems pretty unfair to put up against an SK unless the SK has very strong abilities of it's own. I have no problem with Incognito claiming after GC. If I had to pick out two town right now, it'd be charter and Incognito, but I need to look back over this again.

[Green Crayons]

I'm vanilla.

I'm not convinced that "Red Mafia" means there are two mafia groups. I want to hear Incog's insight before I comment further.

[Incognito]

OK, I'm a

watcher

.

-~- Night 1 watched OhGodMyLife -> he was targeted by Ether.
-~- Night 2 watched charter -> he was targeted by Korts.

-~-~-~-~-~-~-~

So now for my huge mindspill.

First of all, to answer GC's question, the reason I suspect two mafia groups is for a number of reasons:

• Two kills per night. The kill choices have been interesting also: Yosarian2 and skitzer were two people who I would have suspected to be scum. If the win condition for the mafia is something like "You win when all threats to your existence are eliminated" then the mafia would have a vested interest to try and kill off the opposing scum team as well as getting rid of the town also. Last night's kills look like an attempt by both (possible) scum teams to kill each other off as we approach endgame.
  
• vollkan's opening flavor suggests Mafia versus Town.
  
• Ether-power role-Mafia Roleblocking scum sending in the NK choice during Night 1. Why on Earth would a scum group of say, 3, send a Mafia Roleblocker out to submit the kill unless the other 2 scum buddies were under serious scrutiny, and they feared they might be tracked or roleblocked otherwise? To me, Ether sending the kill only makes sense if she was part of a scum team of 2, and her buddy was under intense scrutiny. I'm speculating that she had the ability to both submit kills and roleblock people during the night at the same time.

There are other reasons that I believe this to be the case but for now, I think the above-mentioned reasons are compelling enough.

-~-~-~-~-~-~-~

Now, about Korts, since I watched charter last night and did indeed see Korts target charter, this suggests a few possibilities:

1)

Korts is telling the truth about his role and is indeed a Bodyguard (I can't see a Bodyguard as a scum role, btw).

2)

Korts is not telling the truth about his role and is actually some kind of scum PR (maybe another Mafia RB or a Mafia Doctor or some other Mafia PR that has the ability to target people during the night) that allowed me to see him target charter

without killing him

.

3)

Korts can

not

be an SK.

The thing about possibility 2 is Korts would have or should have had no way of knowing that there was a Watcher in this set-up (especially with the other dead investigative town roles), so why would he, as scum, still feel the need to send a choice to target charter if he didn't have some kind of fear of being caught by a pro-town investigative role? Also, if I'm right about the game having two separate mafia groups, a hypothetical Korts-scum who happened to be, say, a Mafia Doctor would be taking a

huge risk

by forgoing protecting his scum buddy just to be seen as targeting charter when again he'd have no way of knowing there was another pro-town investigative role that could find him out. Therefore, I'm really leaning towards believing that Korts is indeed a Bodyguard. If anyone else can see some other possibility, feel free to blurt it out.

-~-~-~-~-~-~-~

Now, why do I suspect Xdaamno as being Ether's scum buddy if I'm right about the set-up?

- Their interactions with one another have been kinda sketchy (I could pull up examples if necessary).
- If either one of Patrick or GC were scum with Ether, they were both under so little scrutiny during D1 that either one of them could have easily submitted the kill without fearing being tracked or roleblocked in order to preserve their Mafia RB power role scum buddy.
- Xdaamno, on the other hand, was being hounded by everyone and their mother (Happy Mother's Day, btw! ), so he'd be a really poor choice to have submit the kill as opposed to Ether who was largely being written off by most as town.

There are probably other things that I can write down here but this is getting kinda long, I might be forgetting them, so I'll write them down if they come to me. I have to go out soon with my mom for Mother's Day anyway.

If all of my speculation is correct and if charter's also actually town, this would mean that the remaining mafiates would have to be {Patrick, Green Crayons, and Xdaamno}. Could I see Patrick and Green Crayons as scum together? Possibly, but I'd have to reread closely from the very beginning to determine that.

But yeah, those are my thoughts (for the most part) at this time.

Discuss. (Sorry for the verbosity.)

[charter]

Well, I haven't read all that yet, but calling bs. No possible way we have a watcher in this game. Those are so ridiculously overpowered and we already have two investigative roles.

Plus, OGML died night one, so Incog should have known that Ether killed him, so he should have been going hard after her all day. Must go check this and read that wall.

[Incognito]

Not the reaction I expected.

If you look back at my interactions with Ether during Day 1, it should be blindingly obvious that I'm telling the truth about my role. I went from calling the chick obvtown to gunning for her lynch at the start of Day 2 (I'm the one who started the bandwagon on her when people, LIKE YOU for example, wanted to lynch Yosarian2 instead). There are other minor breadcrumbs that I can point out but if you plan on lynching me because you think my claim doesn't make sense, then you're really stupid considering the other types of roles we've seen come out of this game. Your set-up speculation would have lynched Yosarian2-miller town yesterday so don't you dare tell me my claim is bs.

[charter]

Hmmm, actually I did go back and look at it. You did seem pretty adament about Ether being scum at the start of day two which seemed to come out of nowhere. I'm relatively sure you're not Ether's scumbuddy, and also because Xdaamo looks a lot like Ether's buddy, because you did go after her pretty hard. I had forgotten.

I'm just worried that you're not a town watcher. I could easily see a scum watcher and you being in another scumgroup (prolly with Korts).

[Incognito]

Well, here's more things that I've mentioned in-thread that should help alleviate fears:

In response to your 260, the only time I've dealt with a claimed Miller who actually turned out to be a Miller was in Mini 635 - WOMAFIA. Lord Gurgi claimed Douchebag (Miller) in his opening post. Despite the fact that I had LG checked off as likely town for the remainder of the game, I found myself paranoid with him remaining alive closer and closer to end-game. I just think true Miller claims do more harm than good for the town since they allow scum to capitalize on the psychological WIFOM games that are inherent in townie paranoia. Perhaps I was a bit presumptuous when I said "if Yosarian2 was town I think he'd know better than this" since, now that I think about it and now that we've gotten answers from him, I do agree that claiming Miller as scum in the manner he did would probably be worse play for him as scum than as town, but I do hold by the belief that if he's telling the truth, his choice and the manner in which he claimed is terrible.

Yos2 & Patrick: Like I said above, I just think Miller claims bring about a lot of unnecessary townie paranoia. This is especially true considering the fact that the current meta with a lot of mods seems to instill a lot of Cop-hate anyway. WOMAFIA was a good example of this.

In Post 284 in particular, I was letting Yosarian2 know that 1) I was having a hard time believing his claim and 2) if he was telling the truth about his claim, I didn't think it was smart of him to claim since I didn't think a COP was in this set-up. I said this because I had implied knowledge as a Watcher. All of this was before OGML and camn ever flipped investigative, btw. In fact, if you look at my reactions to Yos2's claim, you should see that it makes a lot of sense considering what you now know to be my role. Again, this was all before the two investigative flips.

Day 1 quotes towards Ether

I'll look up your meta tommorow, going to bed now.

He's town.

So are you, dear. So are you.

Ether's

sooooo

cool when she's town.

Day 2, I completely flip-flopped and went after her in my post #719 in the face of a mounting Yosarian2 wagon.

Partial Breadcrumbs

Why not OGML? Seemed pretty obvious that he was soft-claiming an investigative role.

This quote was in response to Korts claiming that he protected you during Night 1. I mentioned that it would have made more sense to me for him to have protected OGML since it was obvious OGML was soft-claiming. In effect, I was also hinting at who I watched that night.

Korts, did you protect charter again last night?

Again, knowledge that I already had if Korts is indeed telling the truth about his role but the above was also another partial breadcrumb.

Also, I was very anti-Korts during Day 1, and he, too, was anti-me during Day 1 as well.

So there ya go.

[charter]

I mean, it can't be this easy, so as to just lynch the claimed vanillas. There really wasn't any point to this game if that is the case. Massclaim at literally any point during any day would have broke this if both you and Korts are telling the truth and are town.

[Incognito]

All of the claim types weirded me out too and made me extremely doubtful, but I think the set-up was created to break a number of meta-conventions. Multiple investigative roles, Millers with no Cops, possible multiple mafia groups, and if Korts is telling the truth - strange protective roles. I don't think a massclaim would have broken the set-up: if OGML, camn, and me all claimed, do you honestly think the town would have bought a three investigative role set-up? We probably would have just lynched the scummiest-seeming of us three citing "counterclaim" as reasoning. Yosarian2 as a Miller would have certainly been insta-lynched given this too since nobody would believe a Miller could exist with our types of investigative roles.

So yeah, I'm not the one who made the set-up, but I've kept an open-mind about it all game since it seemed like things just simply couldn't be taken for granted.

[Green Crayons]

Incog: In light of all of this, who would you like to see lynched today as of this moment?

[Incognito]

Also

@charter and anyone else who doesn't believe my claim:

I have never not ONCE in any of my scum games on MS fake-claimed a power role. Even in SPQR - Mini 720 where Glork, dahill1, and I speculated that the set-up was either at or near all-vanilla, we chose to claim Vanilla since we felt it was the safest option. Your response might be "well, that doesn't mean you couldn't do it here", but I'm just pointing this out anyway. I think it would be EXTREMELY risky for me as scum to claim power now given the number of PRs that have already flipped and that have already been claimed. I think a scum would almost certainly claim Vanilla in this situation with the thought that the town probably wouldn't buy another power role claim.

Also, charter, if Korts and I were scum, I would have had NO INCENTIVE to share my thoughts about how I felt the set-up might have two separate scum groups. I could have easily kept pushing a one mafia group/one SK ideology and pushed for an Xdaamno lynch today for an easy scum win. You might shout "WIFOM!!!!" but no, it's really not.

Incog: In light of all of this, who would you like to see lynched today as of this moment?

Well, I think the set-up looks something like this at this stage of the game:

- 3 Town
- 2 members of Mafia group whatever (let's say "Blue")
- 1 member of the Red Mafia

I

think

based on Xdaamno's and Ether's interactions and based on the fact that Ether submitted the kill during N1 that Xdaamno is very likely the other member of the Red Mafia. So from my perspective, I think I want to lynch one of the members of the Blue Mafia since lynching a Red Mafiate would lead to an automatic Red Mafia win. If I'm correct about everything, this would mean that you and Patrick are Blue Mafiates so a lynch on either one of you would be fine. The shitty thing is I don't think I or any other member of the town can control the town's destiny and guarantee a town win. It seems like things could be really close.

[Incognito]

So from my perspective, I think I want to lynch one of the members of the Blue Mafia since lynching a Red Mafiate would lead to an automatic

Red

Blue Mafia win.

Sorry, fixed.

[Korts]

Hmm. I'm inclined to believe Incog's claim based on his results and his breadcrumbs.

Assuming the claimed vanillas are scum, we have to take into account whether it's 2:2:8 or 3:1:8, because it matters very much. If it's 3:1:8 we have to lynch one of Ether's partners, otherwise we'll be outnumbered by next day; if it's 2:2:8 we have to lynch someone unrelated to Ether for the same reason. I'm leaning towards the latter like the rest of you do, but this is something to be aware of.

That said, I think one of Patrick/Green Crayons is the correct lynch today.

[charter]

I want to vote Korts.

[charter]

Korts, which of Patrick and Green Crayons do you want to lynch more, and why?

[Korts]

Korts, which of Patrick and Green Crayons do you want to lynch more, and why?

Green Crayons, because if it's 3:1:8, he's more likely to be the third mafia based on the long and mostly pointless argument between him and Xdaamno.