Mini 771 - Mafia in Ludd: Game Over

[Patrick]

If Incognito is legit, this setup is completely whack. I don't think I've ever seen a mini contain 3 investigative roles, especially decent ones like what we've seen dead already, and on top of that we'd have a masoniser (and bodyguard??).

I think Incognito is a watcher, but I'm not sold on the alignment. If he's scum, Korts is likely his partner; otherwise I can't see why Incognito would claim and give evidence that "clears" Korts (and I don't see Incognito being paired with Ether). If Korts is scum and Incognito is town, then Korts must have some kind of secondary ability which he targetted charter with. Mafia Doctor is possible: in that case Korts might protect charter not for fear of a watcher, but for fear of charter being nightkilled (since that would probably send Korts to the gallows the next day). Korts being a mafia watcher is just about the only other thing that comes to mind as a possibility here; I could see why a watcher would choose to keep an eye on charter though I'm not sure it would be best play.

I can't see both Korts and Incognito being town, because that would leave only (from my perspective) Xdaamno and GC as scum. Likely that would make Xdaamno red mafia and GC a serial killer, but I don't buy that at all from a setup perspective; town would be insanely overpowered and vollkan isn't a noob mod. I'm going to have to take a look back at some interactions, but if I had to guess now I'd say Xdaamno is red mafia and Korts is scum with either GC or Incognito. I'd like to hear GC's thoughts on why we may not have two mafia groups.

=======================

Page 35 Votecount

charter (0/4):
Green Crayons(0/4):
Incognito (0/4):
Korts (0/4):
Patrick (0/4):
Xdaamno (0/4):

Not voting (6/6):

charter, Green Crayons, Incognito, Korts, Patrick, Xdaamno

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
=======================

Countdown To Deadline

[Incognito]

You seemed pretty sold on me being town before -- why did that change just because of my claim?

[Patrick]

Your claim pulls my brain in two different directions. On the one hand yes, you have struck me as town most of the game; you've done a several things that don't strike me as likely for you to do as scum. On the other hand, your claim doesn't fit into the setup for me, as I said in my last post - I've never seen 3 investigators in a mini. I've also been wondering why you'd make this claim as scum, and it really doesn't make sense for you to risk it unless you're scum with Korts and you want to give yourselves a convenient reason to defend each other whilst trying to go for one more lynch outside of your group. Atm I can see more of a chance of Kortsscum/Incogtown than the other way round.

[Incognito]

I've wanted Korts dead since Day 1. I can't see how you could possibly see this as me fake-claiming as his buddy in an effort to clear him as town. Also, it really wouldn't have been that difficult for a hypo-me-scum to claim Vanilla and help a Korts-hyposcum buddy push an Xdaamno lynch when GC and charter have both made it clear already that they think Xdaamno is scum.

[Xdaamno]

You seemed pretty sold on me being town before -- why did that change just because of my claim?

I think he was quite clear - it is unlikely to have such a "wack" setup with such a good mod.

[Xdaamno]

"whack", sorry

[Patrick]

I need to reread how certain players have interacted; I do indeed remember you pushing Korts on day 1, and I need to reread to see how likely it would be between two partners. I've clearly been played by at least one person so I'm not about to rule it out without having a closer look; most of the possibilities have some weirdness to them anyway.

Also, it really wouldn't have been that difficult for a hypo-me-scum to claim Vanilla and help a Korts-hyposcum buddy push an Xdaamno lynch when GC and charter have both made it clear already that they think Xdaamno is scum.

Yes it would. Seriously, you think that nobody would have suggested the possibility of two mafias existing if you hadn't? I know the first thing that came into my head when Ether flipped red mafia was that it greatly increases the chance of two mafias, and I'd be surprised if I was the only one. Xdaamno's interactions with Ether obviously mark him out as a good candidate to be a scumbuddy of hers, so yes, I would have found it extremely suspect if you and Korts had started heavily pushing a Xdaamno lynch without making a very concrete case as to why he should be our best play today.

[Incamnito]

You seemed pretty sold on me being town before -- why did that change just because of my claim?

I think he was quite clear - it is unlikely to have such a "wack" setup with such a good mod.

Out of everything that's been talked about, this is the only thing you feel the need to comment on?

@Patrick:

as of right now, you're the only other person (aside from Korts who only commented on it when I brought all of my speculation to the forefront) who also proposed that we may be dealing with a two mafia team set-up. charter made it seem like it just dawned on him when I brought it up, Xdaamno seems completely oblivious to everything as usual, and GC seems to be suggesting otherwise.

[Incognito]

You seemed pretty sold on me being town before -- why did that change just because of my claim?

I think he was quite clear - it is unlikely to have such a "wack" setup with such a good mod.

Out of everything that's been talked about, this is the only thing you feel the need to comment on?

@Patrick:

as of right now, you're the only other person (aside from Korts who only commented on it when I brought all of my speculation to the forefront) who also proposed that we may be dealing with a two mafia team set-up. charter made it seem like it just dawned on him when I brought it up, Xdaamno seems completely oblivious to everything as usual, and GC seems to be suggesting otherwise.

This. ^^^

[charter]

Incognito, why did you have to wait until after Green Crayons when none of your actions or anything pertained to him?

[Incognito]

If he's scum, he might have gotten nervous thinking I had some kind of result on him and might have made up some crazy fake-claim in anticipation of my result. Didn't work, obv.

[Korts]

As per my logic in 849,

vote: Green Crayons

[Patrick]

@Patrick: as of right now, you're the only other person (aside from Korts who only commented on it when I brought all of my speculation to the forefront) who also proposed that we may be dealing with a two mafia team set-up. charter made it seem like it just dawned on him when I brought it up, Xdaamno seems completely oblivious to everything as usual, and GC seems to be suggesting otherwise.

I don't see this as especially relevant; it only takes one person to bring up the possibility, and I think you could have guessed that I would have even if nobody else did. I think the hypothetical you put forward would be alot more risky than you've acknowledged.

[Incognito]

Okay. If I was scum fake-claiming Watcher, I could have chosen to tailor a result on someone to make him or her seem guilty. If I was scum and Korts was my buddy, I probably would have just claimed Vanilla thinking that the town would continue believing his Bodyguard claim. I mean seriously, it should be BLINDINGLY OBVIOUS that I'm a pro-town player who is NOT lying about my role.

Wasn't it you who came up with the idea that camn had to be town in BSG because it would be stupid for her as scum to claim a role that already appeared in the game (Jailkeeper)? Why does that same frame of thought not fit here with me and my role for you? Wasn't it you who defended Yosarian2 for having a weird Miller claim? The more you keep pushing this idea that I could be scum because of my claim, the more justified I feel for thinking you're scum.

[Incognito]

Okay. If I was scum fake-claiming Watcher, I could have chosen to tailor a result on someone to make him or her seem guilty.

k, frustration is coming through the keyboard. I probably wouldn't have been able to get away with this considering the kill choices and considering my thoughts about each of the players who died. But yeah.

[Green Crayons]

I think based on Xdaamno's and Ether's interactions and based on the fact that Ether submitted the kill during N1 that Xdaamno is very likely the other member of the Red Mafia. So from my perspective, I think I want to lynch one of the members of the Blue Mafia since lynching a Red Mafiate would lead to an automatic Red Mafia win.

Sigh. I was afraid of that. And that's because you've successfully shown your true colors as either 1) scum with X and Ether [trying to dissuade your partner's lynch for

just one more day

!] or 2) the Serial Killer attempting to position yourself into a pro-active town role [which is a distinct shift in play style as - up until this point - you have been incredibly reactionary] in order to help direct future lynches away from yourself. So, congrats on outing yourself, Mr. Anti-Town.

What first struck a cord with me wasn't your insistence on claiming last (scummy in and of itself) but instead your instant piggybacking of near-confirmed town (charter)'s focus on the night kills as opposed to, say, Ether's play like proper town would do (which was even more scummy). While I hold charter at fault for being the first player to do so, he's pretty well confirmed in my book and I would assume in the town's as well - certainly more so than our other choices. The way you instantly swooped in and cooked up this multiple mafia theories to push the lynch away from someone

who you agree is a scumbag

reeks of bullshit anti-town tactics.

To Address First Things First: The Badly Formed Two-Mafia Theory

I'd like to hear GC's thoughts on why we may not have two mafia groups.

You ask this as if the default is that there are two mafia groups. I don't consider that to be a default. And, contrary to Incog's "cross kill" theory, I think that's a ridiculously powerful anti-town segment of the population. There would have to be some incredibly convincing evidence to make me think there are two scum groups in a 12 person mini (of which one of the 7 or 8 town was a miller). The deck would be so incredibly stacked against the town it's just plain stupid. So, I'll answer why I think the reasons why a two mafia setup are bad and thus the default explanation (mafia/sk) is the probable scenario.

First of all, to answer GC's question, the reason I suspect two mafia groups is for a number of reasons:

* Two kills per night. The kill choices have been interesting also: Yosarian2 and skitzer were two people who I would have suspected to be scum. If the win condition for the mafia is something like "You win when all threats to your existence are eliminated" then the mafia would have a vested interest to try and kill off the opposing scum team as well as getting rid of the town also. Last night's kills look like an attempt by both (possible) scum teams to kill each other off as we approach endgame.

Neat. Two kills per night with no vig claim means two anti-town groups. Nothing says that it's two mafias and so this reasoning is a complete wash.

* vollkan's opening flavor suggests Mafia versus Town.

Neat. I don't think I've ever read a game which contained a serial killer where the opening flavor suggested Mafia versus Town versus Serial Killer. This reasoning is completely contrived.

* Ether-power role-Mafia Roleblocking scum sending in the NK choice during Night 1. Why on Earth would a scum group of say, 3, send a Mafia Roleblocker out to submit the kill unless the other 2 scum buddies were under serious scrutiny, and they feared they might be tracked or roleblocked otherwise? To me, Ether sending the kill only makes sense if she was part of a scum team of 2, and her buddy was under intense scrutiny. I'm speculating that she had the ability to both submit kills and roleblock people during the night at the same time.

I can't figure out why scum would send out a role blocker to make a kill in lieu of role blocking. On N1. It doesn't make sense. Incog's "reasoning" is totally crap - mafia wouldn't waste a resource (roleblocking) fearing that

one

of their

three

people might be investigated when they could have simply blocked the person who had soft claimed an investigative role and used their kill to target anyone else they thought might have been a backup investigative role! Incog's reasoning is completely out of whack and makes me think that his "results" are complete BS.

the "Red Mafia" thing

I think I want to lynch one of the members of the Blue Mafia

When I saw "Red Mafia," I just assumed that was a arbitrary name given to the mafia. I wouldn't have thought differently if I saw "Gambino Mafia" or "Triangle Mafia" or "Scummy Mafia." Giving the mafia a title doesn't make it indicative that there are separate mafia groups. While I will admit that when there are separate mafia groups the mafias are given different names, that does not mean named mafia are inclusive only in separate mafia setups. Which is the failed logic Incog is using to promote the two mafia setup. Also, Incog's "Blue Mafia" made me do a double take. The Blue Mafia? Really? Incog has divined the title of the other mafia group? Why not "Green Mafia?" Or "Black Mafia?" Incog is asking us to trust his assumptions because of more assumptions that he's making. Is reeks of bad logic and scummy tactics.

Second Up: Why Xd Needs to be the Lynch for Today

One

. Incog's "reasons" for why there would be two mafia groups are horrible. They're badly formed excuses for him to direct the town's attention away from someone a lot of people have already acknowledged (Incog; Patrick; Yos, conveniently killed the night after he voiced X suspicions; Camn, conveniently killed the night after she voiced X suspicions) to be scum. Incog is asking the town

to not vote for an all but confirmed scumbag

because he has conjured up a false dilemma for the town to face (a LYLO situation).

Two

. My Post 506 still stands strong.

Three

. Let's take a good long look at Dizzy's lynch. Who was on her wagon? "DizzyIzzyB13 (6/7): charter, Xdaamno, Yosarian2, Ether, Korts, skitzer" In my experience a townie lynch on D1 doesn't happen without at least two scumbags on the final wagon. Here we see charter (cleared mason), Xd (unknown), Yos (cleared through death), Ether (scumbag), Korts (cleared doc role), skit (cleared through death). The last minute town wagon has only one scum (Ether) and one unknown: Xd. Xd was the second scum helping out the townie lynch.

Four

. After this D1 scare, Xd has become increasingly less active. I'm not just talking about infrequency of posting, but of both the quantity in and quality of each post. They're mostly all one liners. He's scum who was scathed D1 and so is playing it super low key after his brush with death.

Five

. Ether/Xd interactions point to them being partners.

In short,

Xd is scum

. He's been performing incredibly scummy all game and should finally meet his end with a rope around his neck.

And then, Point Three the Third: Incog, Le Sigh

So what does this mean about Incog? I have previously voiced my opinion that I thought he was "obvtown." And I think his play

was

pretty town. But looking back on it, I'm not so sure. These are my general ideas and ones that I hope the town looks further into come tomorrow (because today should be a Xd lynch) or later today. As it stands this is an incredibly long post so I'm not trying to drag this out any longer than I need.

One.

As I have already said, I think his "let's not lynch the obvscum Xd today" is incredibly scummy.

Two.

His D1 X vote was incredibly wishy-washy and made

after

charter's proclamation of having used his role on Dizzy, thereby making his lameduck XD vote more for show than for bite.

Three.

His previous play was reactionary. Someone would do something and he would comment upon it. I don't recall off the top of my head any original platforms he spearheaded until the beginning of today which is incredibly safe scum play.

Four.

His role is ridiculous. The town had three investigative roles (a role to capture scum at any turn! 1) who they target [tracker], 2) who targets a victim [watcher] and who is a bad guy [gunsmith])? I don't think so.

Partial Breadcrumbs

Why not OGML? Seemed pretty obvious that he was soft-claiming an investigative role.

This quote was in response to Korts claiming that he protected you during Night 1. I mentioned that it would have made more sense to me for him to have protected OGML since it was obvious OGML was soft-claiming. In effect, I was also hinting at who I watched that night.

This is crap. I was thinking the exact same thing because OGML was the

obvious

choice to protect due to his softclaim. That doesn't require any sort of watching ability and this doesn't hint in the slightest that Incog watched OGML. Utter crap.

Korts, did you protect charter again last night?

Again, knowledge that I already had if Korts is indeed telling the truth about his role but the above was also another partial breadcrumb.

Seriously? This isn't a breadcrumb. This is Incog forcing a scenario to happen so he can "confirm" it later. Regardless of who Korts targeted, all Incog had to say was "yup!" or "nope!" to make it fit. This doesn't confirm Incog - this confirms Korts. Incog is trying to clear himself by clawing backwards through logic and it's an epic fail.

Five.

Major speculation: Everyone and their brother knows Ether's scum MO is to be incredibly detached and really lame play overall because she hates being scum. Everyone knows it, even her. She knew it going in, and she knew it from her very first post. A post she used to instantly vote for Incog because, as mafia are want to do, they enjoy voting for each other when there is no major threat to the vote cumulating into a lynch. Knowing that she would undoubtedly be exposed for the scum she was, I could see a forward thinking Ether hit the ground running by voting for Incog.

tl;dr

(e.g. Read Me!)

1.

The two-mafia scenario is ridiculous and propped up by bad logic.

2.

Xd is obvscum. Everyone agrees on this. To not have a Xd lynch today is to put the town in jeopardy based off a poorly formed theory.

3

. Incog is looking more and more like anti-town. I can't decide if he's scum or serial killer, but he reeks. And he reeks like really bad craplogic.

Side Note:

As per my logic in 849,

vote: Green Crayons

Korts, which of Patrick and Green Crayons do you want to lynch more, and why?

Green Crayons, because if it's 3:1:8, he's more likely to be the third mafia based on the long and mostly pointless argument between him and Xdaamno.

The third mafia with Xd and Ether? After I have pushed heavily for both of their lynches (Xd for both D1, D2 and D3; Ether for D2)? That... makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

[Green Crayons]

Second Up: Why Xd Needs to be the Lynch for Today

-snip-
Incog is asking the town

to not vote for an all but confirmed scumbag

because he has conjured up a false dilemma for the town to face (a LYLO situation).

Actually, let me rectify this comment because actually I do think this is a potential LYLO now that I think it through.

(1)

If we started off with three mafia (and now have two still around) and one SK: if we lynch town, the mafia will be in a really strong position come tomorrow depending on night choices. The SK is in a moderately stronger position (as they would always be after every Day/Night cycle of surviving), but the game is up largely to chance and night choices.

(2)

If we started off with three mafia (and now have two still around) and one SK: if we lynch the SK, the mafia auto-win by sheer numbers.

Both of these scenarios greatly benefit the mafia. If Incog is partners with Xd/Ether, he is espousing a false situation based off of crap logic that greatly increases his chance for winning - or outright gives them the win if we hit the SK.

(3)

If we started off with two mafia (and now have one still around) and one SK: if we lynch mafia or SK, we'll put us at 1 kill a night and gives us some breathing room. We have an obvscum (Xd). We can use the breathing room to hunt for the SK.

(4)

If we started off with two mafia (and now have one still around) and one SK: if we lynch town we will have at least one more shot at winning - but how the game plays out is up largely to chance and night choices.



So... yeah. I stand corrected. We are in a probable LYLO situation, regardless of the setup of the game. However, I still stand by the assertion that the two-mafia scenario is a

major

ass pull by Incog for reasons as previously stated. An ass pull that - if he successfully dupes the town - all but hands him and scumpal Xd the game if he's scum; or, if he's SK, greatly reduces the chances of the town winning and places the fate of the game in his/mafia's hands of NKs. Because of this, I think the safest play is to lynch the Xdscum and give ourselves a shot at winning this.

[charter]

Green Crayons. You seem quite sure in what you want to do, why no Xdaamo vote?

[Incognito]

Such empty posting. Things are scummy or crap logic because I, Green Crayons, said so! No evidence to support his positions -- just a bunch of empty text.

GC's Response to my multiple scum group theory: Well, 12 player games shouldn't have more than one scum group because I, GC, said so!

Evidence that supports the idea that 12 player games CAN HAVE MORE THAN ONE SCUM GROUP

:

The numerous mountainous multiball set-ups that have been run in Little Italy that have all been 12 player games.

- Open 137 (currently running)
- Open 72
- Open 61

All three of these games had the following set-up:

- 8 Vanilla Townies
- 2 Mafia Goons (Group A)
- 2 Mafia Goons (Group B)

If you think our set-up is stacked against town, then what are your thoughts on these MOUNTAINOUS set-ups that have had two of them run to completion one of which actually ended with a town win? Why is it so unreasonable to believe that the set-up we're dealing with might be similar to these types of set-ups when our mod has even HINTED at evidence in the group scum name of "Red mafia"? Why should we ignore the fact that our very own vollkan-mod has used opening flavor in the past to DICTATE what kind of set-up the town should expect?

Seriously, have a look at vollkan-mod's opening flavor for "Mafia in Vollville - Mini 554" where vollkan explicitly writes in the opening the following lines that pretty much hinted to the town what type of set-up it could be looking at:

For centuries, the citizens of the tiny town of Vollville have lived in peace – untroubled by the recent endemic of

mafia killings

that seemed to be plaguing the rest of the world. After all, what would a powerful criminal organisation have to gain by infiltrating and massacring a village of just 13 people?

The apparent immunity of Vollville has, regrettably, ended forever. This morning, the body of the town’s beloved and dashing Mayor Vollkan was found strangled in his bed. Carved into his forehead were the words:

“Mafia has arrived.”

The remaining 12 citizens of Vollville have gathered to determine the identities of those responsible. Nobody has entered the village; nobody has left. The guilty must be among the 12.

The town in that game actually HAD to deal with two deaths per night and actually DID at one point use the opening flavor to help them determine that it probably was unlikely that the other killer was an SK. Patrick was in that very game as the vigilante who partly used the opening flavor in his own defense to vouch for his own towniness since people were fearful that he was an SK. Is it a bad assumption for me to think that vollkan may have done the same thing with our game? How can you possibly call my argument that the opening flavor seems to suggest mafia vs. town a "contrived argument" when I have evidence from past experience with vollkan that suggests that he's the type of mod to do so?

I can't figure out why scum would send out a role blocker to make a kill in lieu of role blocking. On N1. It doesn't make sense. Incog's "reasoning" is totally crap - mafia wouldn't waste a resource (roleblocking) fearing that one of their three people might be investigated when they could have simply blocked the person who had soft claimed an investigative role and used their kill to target anyone else they thought might have been a backup investigative role! Incog's reasoning is completely out of whack and makes me think that his "results" are complete BS.

Where did I say that the scum didn't roleblock that night? In that very quote that you pulled up of mine, I suggested that Ether PROBABLY had the ability to both kill AND roleblock in a single night, so she could have easily been sent to make the NK and AT THE SAME TIME roleblock another person of her choosing. It's much better for scum to completely get rid of the investigative threat that they're so worried about than to just roleblock him and aim for other people who they simply THOUGHT could be potential investigators. Why waste your time killing the people you think could be investigators when you pretty much have a sure thing in the person who soft-claimed?

Also, please point out where my playstyle up until this point has been "reactionary". Because if I remember correctly, I'm the one who led the charge against an Ether-scum on Day 2 in the face of a growing Yosarian2 wagon. Please tell me why I as mafia scum would feel so compelled to bus my Roleblocker scum buddy when I probably could have very easily pushed a Yosarian2 lynch given the "evidence" that was available from the Gunsmith and Tracker investigative role flips during Night 1. And if you're thinking I'm an SK, please tell me why I completely flip-flopped on Ether after just a single night when on the previous day I made it quite clear that I thought she was obvtown. Last time I checked, SKs didn't come equipped with Watcher abilities -- or is that your next bogus argument? That I'm somehow an SK with a Watcher ability?

You yourself gave absolutely no hint that you thought Ether was scum until Day 2 when I presented my case against her so for you to now suggest that it should have been blindingly obvious to everyone that she's scum since everyone knows her scum meta is complete fabrication. In fact, just to quote where you actually placed your vote down on her:

Yeah. I'm fairly certain that Ether is scum. This notion is only cemented by the fact that people who know/play with Ether are also saying that they see Ether as scum.

By the way, I think this was a major trip up: "I can't passionately defend myself against the middle two points--

I never really took to this game

." I know that she was looking forward to this game to some extent. And I don't think that she's lying about her lack of interest in this game. But the number one reason why she would become disinterested would be because she is scum. After all, she finds scum to be absolutely no fun (middle of post). And she most certainly does not invest much effort while scum (top of post).

Followed shortly thereafter by, "I don't know what causes that reaction, though I'm pretty sure thick familiarity is a negative, if anything." Pretty funny. Thick familiarity is a negative when you're scum.


So,

vote: Ether

.
I'm still super-happy with a X lynch in the days to come.
I'm warming up to the notion of a Yos lynch.
Skit is looking like lurker scum, regardless if he's lurking the whole site over.

What's that that Green Crayons said? "PEOPLE WHO KNOW/PLAY WITH ETHER ARE ALSO SAYING THAT THEY SEE ETHER AS SCUM." He doesn't say he believes this; he says PEOPLE (namely ME, since I put forward my case against Ether at that time) say that they see Ether as scum. So why present your case against me now as if it was a sure thing that everyone in the whole game knew she was scum?

Yeah, I'm pretty damn sure you're scum who's trying to win the game today with an Xdaamno, Red Mafia lynch after these last few posts. You can eat this:

vote: Green Crayons

[Green Crayons]

Green Crayons. You seem quite sure in what you want to do, why no Xdaamo vote?

(Shrug) Because there is plenty of time left in the day.

There's a lot of quote response here so I'm breaking it up into segments.

Incog's Bad Attitude

Such empty posting. Things are scummy or crap logic because I, Green Crayons, said so! No evidence to support his positions -- just a bunch of empty text.

Wow. This is a major change of attitude and tone from the last time where we played together. The last game where we played together (for people who don't know, Incog was town vig and I was scum) where you were convinced I was scum I don't remember nearly as much animus. Could it be I have struck gold?

Game Setup

If you think our set-up is stacked against town, then what are your thoughts on these MOUNTAINOUS set-ups that have had two of them run to completion one of which actually ended with a town win?

I think that all the examples you have given were open set-ups which is a major change as the town knows exactly what they're getting into and thus know to look for competing mafias from the get go. Unless if you want to suggest to me that this doesn't help the town at all, in which case feel free to bluster about with your failed examples some more.

Why is it so unreasonable to believe that the set-up we're dealing with might be similar to these types of set-ups when our mod has even HINTED at evidence in the group scum name of "Red mafia"?

Surely you can read?

Why should we ignore the fact that our very own vollkan-mod has used opening flavor in the past to DICTATE what kind of set-up the town should expect?

Heh. I'm curious how vollkan-mod would use opening flavor to "DICTATE" a Mafia v. Town v. Serial Killer setup. Outing a serial killer is a pretty big blow to the SK, don't you think?

Seriously, have a look at vollkan-mod's opening flavor for "Mafia in Vollville - Mini 554" where vollkan explicitly writes in the opening the following lines that pretty much hinted to the town what type of set-up it could be looking at:

-example-

Are you kidding me? Note to self: Incog-scum fails at making up logic. Alright. You're trying to suggest that mods who talk about mafia in their opening

flavor

of the game of

Mafia

preclude the ability for a serial killer to be in the game? It would be one thing if you were arguing that when the mod talks about mafia there probably aren't werewolves or when the mod talks about crazy monsters invading the town there probably aren't regular mafia. But to suggest that talking about mafia prevents a serial killer from being in the game? Wow. What a really incredibly stupid thing to assume. And I know you aren't a blathering idiot, so what an incredibly scummy attempt at to claw together some failed logic.

The town in that game actually HAD to deal with two deaths per night and actually DID at one point use the opening flavor to help them determine that it probably was unlikely that the other killer was an SK. Patrick was in that very game as the vigilante who partly used the opening flavor in his own defense to vouch for his own towniness since people were fearful that he was an SK.

So, what you're telling me is that Patrick managed to squeeze by due to bad logic? Congrats on the town, it worked out for them.

Is it a bad assumption for me to think that vollkan may have done the same thing with our game? How can you possibly call my argument that the opening flavor seems to suggest mafia vs. town a "contrived argument" when I have evidence from past experience with vollkan that suggests that he's the type of mod to do so?

What evidence?

There is no evidence

! Typing up an opening flavor that doesn't say "oh and by the way there's a serial killer thrown in there, too!" doesn't make it a mod's MO to tell the town when there is and is not a serial killer in the setup. Your logic fail is going to make my head implode.

Other Stuff

Where did I say that the scum didn't roleblock that night? In that very quote that you pulled up of mine, I suggested that Ether PROBABLY had the ability to both kill AND roleblock in a single night, so she could have easily been sent to make the NK and AT THE SAME TIME roleblock another person of her choosing. It's much better for scum to completely get rid of the investigative threat that they're so worried about than to just roleblock him and aim for other people who they simply THOUGHT could be potential investigators. Why waste your time killing the people you think could be investigators when you pretty much have a sure thing in the person who soft-claimed?

You're right, that last line escaped me when I first read through your post. My apologies.

Also, please point out where my playstyle up until this point has been "reactionary".

Just read all of D1.

Because if I remember correctly, I'm the one who led the charge against an Ether-scum on Day 2 in the face of a growing Yosarian2 wagon. Please tell me why I as mafia scum would feel so compelled to bus my Roleblocker scum buddy when I probably could have very easily pushed a Yosarian2 lynch given the "evidence" that was available from the Gunsmith and Tracker investigative role flips during Night 1. And if you're thinking I'm an SK, please tell me why I completely flip-flopped on Ether after just a single night when on the previous day I made it quite clear that I thought she was obvtown. Last time I checked, SKs didn't come equipped with Watcher abilities...

(Shrug) I'm still up in the air if you're scumbuddy #3 or if you're the serial killer. Last time I checked - and contrary to popular belief - I can't read minds. I don't know why you would have bussed scumbuddy Ether. Maybe because she was displaying her obvious tells on D1 and so you wanted to position yourself to look good for future days? And you didn't have to have an ability to "flip" on Ether so your SK defense is pointless. You just had to look at her play throughout D1 and see she was pretty much Etherscum. Unless if you're suggesting that Yos, myself and Patrick were all convinced solely through your play (even though people were already suspecting Ether on D1)? Jesus, leave your ego at the door.

...is that your next bogus argument? That I'm somehow an SK with a Watcher ability?

Heh. I want everyone to pay attention, because this is some really classic tactics to win an argument through underhanded tactics.

Step 1: Takes something that hasn't been proven (Incog has watcher ability).
Step 2: Use that as an underlying basis of what you say - just put it out there like it's unquestionable fact (he has the watcher ability without a doubt, it's just that his alignment is a bit fuzzy).
Step 3: Using this "unquestionable fact" as a starting point, attack other party so they miss that you shifted a baseless claim into a factual piece of evidence (since he obviously has a watcher ability, my arguments must be "bogus" because who ever heard of a SK with a watcher ability?).

Incog, you haven't proven jack about your ability. Once again, telling someone to say yes or no to a question and then going "Of course!" is just as spectacular as having a magician have the audience tell him what the card pasted to his forehead is and then proudly proclaim that it's the five of hearts. Confirmation doesn't work that way and anyone with the slightest sense knows that.

Incog's Lies

You yourself gave absolutely no hint that you thought Ether was scum until Day 2 when I presented my case against her so for you to now suggest that it should have been blindingly obvious to everyone that she's scum since everyone knows her scum meta is complete fabrication.

Heh. Do you even read the thread before you just make up

bullshit

blatant lies

? In D1 I was already commenting upon Ether's lack of activity (her main scum tell), and agreeing with Yos about him pointing out Ether's lack of activity being scummy. "No hint" my ass you liar.

What's that that Green Crayons said? "PEOPLE WHO KNOW/PLAY WITH ETHER ARE ALSO SAYING THAT THEY SEE ETHER AS SCUM."

He doesn't say he believes this; he says PEOPLE (namely ME, since I put forward my case against Ether at that time) say that they see Ether as scum

. So why present your case against me now as if it was a sure thing that everyone in the whole game knew she was scum?

Wait. Wait. I want everyone to focus in on this.

This is an outright lie

. Check the bolding: Incog is saying that I don't believe that Ether is scum, just merely that other people think she is scum. Now, let's look at my quote: "Yeah. I'm fairly certain that Ether is scum. This notion is only cemented by the fact that people who know/play with Ether are also saying that they see Ether as scum." My actual quote says that I believe Ether is scum. I am confirmed in my suspicions by the fact other players who have played with Ether feel the same way.

Did you see that? The little shift he did there to construct the lie? Besides, Incog taking sole credit for busting Ether's chops is silly. I'm pretty sure it was Yos who first had his legit suspicions of her in D1, and it was Patrick's opinion I was actively seeking D2.

[Incognito]

Right. I'm not responding to all of that because it simply won't be pretty.

I just would like everyone to toss the following thoughts around in their own minds:

-~- Why would someone who kept such an open-mind about Yosarian2's miller claim now become so closed-minded to not even consider that

a)

hey, maybe this Incog guy who I thought was obvtown all game might be onto something about the set-up and

b)

hey, maybe this Incog guy who I thought was obvtown might be telling the truth about his role?

-~- Why would someone who claims that he's not even certain that I'm scum attack me so fiercely for putting forth the ideas that I have?

-~- Green Crayons has claimed that my Watcher claim and my second partial breadcrumb only helps clear Korts. He's also insisted that charter is all but confirmed town. He's ALSO insisted that this set-up very likely has 3 scum; 1 SK in it. So he's made his feelings clear about Xdaamno, he's stated that he's not really sure which type of scum I am (SK or mafia scum), and who does that leave exactly? Patrick? Why has Green Crayons not even touched on his feelings about Patrick exactly? Have a look at the difference in tone between Green Crayons' response to Patrick's suggestion that this might be a dual mafia group set-up and his tone when attacking me. Does that not tell you anything?

-~- Ether submitted the kill during Night 1, period. I know some of you are doubting my Watcher claim, but this is the information that I'm giving you because it's the truth. I hope that my actions all game are enough to help suggest that I am indeed a pro-town Watcher even without the breadcrumbing and other hints at my role. From a balance perspective, that also suggests that this set-up has two mafia groups in it. If we were dealing with a 3 mafia scum group, most mods wouldn't even allow a Mafia RB to both submit a kill and roleblock at the same time. That's something that's typically only allowed for when mafia groups have only two people. Naming Ether's scum group the Red Mafia also lends support to this theory. The deaths of Yosarian2, a claimed miller, who was under a lot of scrutiny and skitzer, a person who most would agree looked fairly scummy, also help support this idea. To ignore all of this simply because it's conventional for Mini Normal set-ups to have one mafia group is downright stupid, and I won't be a part of it.

If anyone has any questions for me or would like for me to respond to anything Green Crayons has mentioned, I'll gladly do so. But right now, I'd like to hear some more thoughts from others.

[Green Crayons]

Right. While I could respond to all of that (and will be happy to do so) I'm curious as to what others are thinking as not to drown the thread.

[Patrick]

If I was scum and Korts was my buddy, I probably would have just claimed Vanilla thinking that the town would continue believing his Bodyguard claim.

I'm not sure Korts was as well thought of as you're suggesting here, but yeah, this is obviously plausible.

Wasn't it you who came up with the idea that camn had to be town in BSG because it would be stupid for her as scum to claim a role that already appeared in the game (Jailkeeper)? Why does that same frame of thought not fit here with me and my role for you?

I don't remember; I know I was a little suspicious of the claim because she hadn't counterclaimed when a scum claimed her role. I don't remember putting forward that she had to be town, but it's possible; I can't be bothered to trawl through a load of chat logs now. Why are the situations different? The obvious one would be that Kison was about 99% certain scum in that game and there was only one remaining. As I've also said twice now, I have trouble with the idea of there being 3 investigative roles in this game, especially when we have other powers claimed as well. What do you find so shocking about that? I'm sure you remember that in vollkan's first game we caught our first scum largely because none of us believed that a mini would contain 3 investigative roles. The circumstances of your claim and his claim in that game are obviously different, but that's what bothers me, as I think you know.

I don't understand why you've brought up Yosarian's claim as though the situations are comparable. Yos claimed to be a miller, not a third investigative role. I don't see what was that weird about his claim, well, until the death of two investigators on night 1, when the miller claim suddenly started looking less likely to exist in the setup.

GC/Incognito debate hasn't really changed my view about the setup; I don't see why 8-2-2 is ridiculously stacked against the town whilst 8-3-1 is perfectly acceptable. I accept that games exist where there's only a single mafia and they get given a special name, but I haven't seen many, whereas games with two mafias almost always give the mafias their own names. That reasoning doesn't seem illogical to me at all. I'm thinking one or two other things, but for now I'd like to hear GC's reasoning as to why Korts is a cleared doc role.

[Green Crayons]

I don't see why 8-2-2 is ridiculously stacked against the town whilst 8-3-1 is perfectly acceptable.

They're both heavily stacked against the town, but the 8-2-2 is a worse situation for the town, in my opinion, because you have two groups of people working against the town, rather than a single group of people and a loner. I think the day/night coordination of two groups is much more damaging to the town, especially if they aren't given the head's up before the game even begins. Not to mention the fact that in an 8-3-1 setup it only takes a single correct lynch/NK for the town to rid themselves of one of the anti-town groups and all that entails (the NK, the bad day logic, etc). It's still a tough game, but nowhere nearly as harsh on the town as 8-2-2. I have no reason to believe vollk made this game pointlessly difficult for us to win well beyond the point of being fun.

Truth be told, the 8-3-1 didn't really enter into my thought process until I was thinking over potential LYLO situations per my 869. To slip in a response to one of Incog's related points from 870, if the 8-3-1 is what we're facing, my bet is that Ether/Xd/Incog are the mafia and that you would be the SK. The reason why I'm focused intently on Xd is because he's definitely mafia. He definitely needs to go. The reason why I also diverted my attention over to Incog is because up until the dawn of today I thought he was pretty obvtown. His sudden 180 deserved attention and I felt it necessary to point it out. Truth be told, I'm leaning to a 8-2-1 scenario where the mafia was given a roleblocker (helps out their loss of a member, common weapon given to a two-person mafia) where Xd is Ether's partner and Incog is the probable SK (for all reasons previously stated). However, I don't want to rule out the possibility of the 8-3-1 because if we don't lynch mafia today then we don't win. So, since my suspicious list goes Xd (obvscum) ---> Incog (either poss. scum or SK) ---> Patrick (poss. SK), that's why I'm so intently focused on Xd followed by Incog.

I'm thinking one or two other things, but for now I'd like to hear GC's reasoning as to why Korts is a cleared doc role.

I have no reason to think that we don't have at least a single doctor-esque role out there. The fact that he's a bodyguard neatly depowers his doctor ability in the face of a gunsmith and tracker. If we had a doctor

and

a bodyguard that would be a pretty good giveaway that one was a liar, but that just isn't the case. Also, the fact that when he was facing a lynch on D1 and he didn't just outright claim a regular doctor helps. If he was scum, any sort of doctor role would have saved him from a D1 lynch - and if he claimed to be a regular doctor (assuming he was scum), he might have been able to provoke the real doctor to out himself: a perfectly acceptable exchange on D1 to a good number of scumbags.

Outside of his actual claim and apart from my D1 squabble with him, he never really registered on my scumdar again - yet another reason why I am inclined to believe him. I actually don't understand you persistent suspicions of Korts, so I'm all ears as to why he's still not confirmed for you.

[charter]

I need to go see if Incog pushed for Xdaamo. I'm thinking it might be Ether/Incog/Xdaamo with Patrick as SK. I don't think two scum groups is possible.